• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제60권1호
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• pp.47-57
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• 2018

This study implemented the rainfall-runoff analysis of the Mekong River basin using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The runoff analysis was simulated for 2000~2007, and 11 parameters were calibrated using the SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting-version 2) algorithm of SWAT-CUP (Calibration and Uncertainty Program). As a result of analyzing optimal parameters and sensitivity analysis for 6 cases, the parameter ALPHA_BF was found to be the most sensitive. The reproducibility of the rainfall-runoff results decreased with increasing number of stations used for parameter calibration. The rainfall-runoff simulation results of Case 6 showed that the RMSE of Nong Khai and Kratie stations were 0.97 and 0.9, respectively, and the runoff patterns were relatively accurately simulated. The runoff patterns of Mukdahan and Khong Chaim stations were underestimated during the flood season from 2004 to 2005 but it was acceptable in terms of the overall runoff pattern. These results suggest that the combination of SWAT and SWAT-CUP models is applicable to very large watersheds such as the Mekong for rainfall-runoff simulation, but further studies are needed to reduce the range of modeling uncertainty.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제39권6호
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• pp.877-893
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• 2011

Response spectra of earthquake ground motions are important in the earthquake-resistant design and reliability analysis of structures. The formulation of the response spectrum in the frequency domain efficiently computes and evaluates the stochastic response spectrum. The frequency information of the excitation can be described using different functional forms. The shapes of the calculated response spectra of the excitation show strong magnitude and site dependency, but weak distance dependency. In this paper, to compare the effect of the earthquake ground motion variables, the contribution of these sources of variability to the response spectrum's uncertainty is calculated by using a stochastic analysis. The analytical results show that earthquake source factors and soil condition variables are the main sources of uncertainty in the response spectra, while path variables, such as distance, anelastic attenuation and upper crust attenuation, have relatively little effect. The presented formulation of dynamic structural response in frequency domain based only on the frequency information of the excitation can provide an important basis for the structural analysis in some location that lacks strong motion records.

• 대한지하수환경학회지
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.14-22
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• 1999

순간수위변화 및 양수 시험은 현장에서 대수층의 수리상수 추정을 위해 널리 사용되는 수리시험이다. 그런데 이런 수리시험을 수행하고 그 결과를 해석함에 있어서 다양한 오차 및 불확실성 요인이 있음에도 불구하고 이에 대한 심각한 고려가 많지 않았다. 본 연구에서는 양수 및 순간수위 변화시험을 다수의 동일 관정에서 반복 수행하고 그 결과를 다각적으로 검토함으로써 두 수리시험에 개입될 수 있는 오차 및 불확실성 요인을 분석하였다.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2008년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.699-702
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• 2008

In this study, it has observed the precipitation and stage data at each point every ten minutes for gaining the sustainable, reliable and high-quality hydrological data through operating the experimental watershed in mountainous areas such as Gyecheon located in the upstream of Seom river that is the tributary of Nam-Han river. And it has regularly surveyed the runoff and verified the reliability of data using the uncertainty analysis at the gaging station. So, this study has developed the stage-discharge curve(rating curve) and these results are expected to be used as fundamental data for analyzing the circulation of water through surveying evapotranspiration, soil moisture and level of groundwater in watershed.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 1987년도 제29회 수공학연구발표회논문초록집
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• pp.123-137
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• 1987

The groundwater hydrographs due to the recharge of water table aquifer resulting from rainfall are simulated by relating the existing linearized method, which is originally the non-linear equation suggested by Boussinesq, to the basin charcteristics. To thes end, the recharge curve is assumed as the skewed distribution of sine curve, and the parameters contained in the equation are determined from the geomorphologic and soil maps. The whole drainage area is divied in order to consider the spatial variation of parameters. The obtained parameters are tried for several cases with different values given arbitrarily to study the aspects of hydrographs according to their variation. This procedures are applied to the natural basin of Bocheong watershed(area:475.5$\textrm{km}^2$) in Korea. As a result, it is shown that considerable uncertainty is expressed for the results obtained with the given values of parameters. Thus, such uncertainty should be precluded to a certain extent by examining and observing the physical characteristics as much as possible for the determination of groundwater flows.

• 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지진공학회 2003년도 춘계 학술발표회논문집
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• pp.157-164
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• 2003

A simulation-based approach that can be used to systematically model the uncertainties of seismic loading and geotechnical property is presented in the context of reliability analysis of slope stability. The uncertainty of seismic loading is studied by generating a large series of hazard-compatible artificial motions, and by using them in subsequent response analyses. The stochastic nature of spatially varying material properties and also the uncertainty arising from insufficient information are treated in the framework of random fields. The simulation-based analyses indicate that in a seismically less active region, a moderate variability in soil properties has a relatively large effect as much as characterization of earthquake hazard on the computed risk of slope failure and excessive slope deformations.

• 한국지반공학회논문집
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• 제31권10호
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• pp.5-16
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• 2015

본 연구에서는 국가건설기준이 한계상태설계법으로 전환됨에 따라 현재 연구기반이 미약한 쏘일네일링의 LRFD 설계법 개발의 일환으로 인발저항에 대한 저항편향계수를 분석하였다. 쏘일네일링의 설계 및 시공 기술수준 등 지역적 특성을 반영하기 위하여 국내 비탈면과 굴착공사에서 수행된 인발시험 자료를 수집하고, 지반특성, 쏘일네일의 제원, 인발시험 결과 등으로 구성된 데이터베이스를 구축하였다. 쏘일네일링의 인발저항에 대한 저항계수를 보정하기 위하여 국내에서 가장 많이 이용되며 비교적 자료수가 충분한 중력식과 가압식 그라우팅공법의 인발저항에 대한 저항편향계수를 산정하였다. 저항편향계수는 1.144~1.325으로 실제 극한인발저항력을 비교적 보수적으로 예측하고 있으며 미국의 연구사례(NCHRP Report)보다 안전측으로 설계가 이루어지고 있으나, 인발저항력에 대한 불확실성은 $COV_R$=0.27~0.43으로 비교적 큰 것으로 나타났다. 또한 가압식 그라우팅공법은 중력식 그라우팅공법에 비해 내재된 안전여유가 많으며, 실제 발휘되는 극한인발저항력의 불확실성이 낮은 것으로 분석되었다.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제46권1호
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• pp.53-73
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• 2013

Prediction of prestressed concrete girder integral abutment bridge (IAB) load effect requires understanding of the inherent uncertainties as it relates to thermal loading, time-dependent effects, bridge material properties and soil properties. In addition, complex inelastic and hysteretic behavior must be considered over an extended, 75-year bridge life. The present study establishes IAB displacement and internal force statistics based on available material property and soil property statistical models and Monte Carlo simulations. Numerical models within the simulation were developed to evaluate the 75-year bridge displacements and internal forces based on 2D numerical models that were calibrated against four field monitored IABs. The considered input uncertainties include both resistance and load variables. Material variables are: (1) concrete elastic modulus; (2) backfill stiffness; and (3) lateral pile soil stiffness. Thermal, time dependent, and soil loading variables are: (1) superstructure temperature fluctuation; (2) superstructure concrete thermal expansion coefficient; (3) superstructure temperature gradient; (4) concrete creep and shrinkage; (5) bridge construction timeline; and (6) backfill pressure on backwall and abutment. IAB displacement and internal force statistics were established for: (1) bridge axial force; (2) bridge bending moment; (3) pile lateral force; (4) pile moment; (5) pile head/abutment displacement; (6) compressive stress at the top fiber at the mid-span of the exterior span; and (7) tensile stress at the bottom fiber at the mid-span of the exterior span. These established IAB displacement and internal force statistics provide a basis for future reliability-based design criteria development.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2005년도 춘계 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.129-136
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• 2005

The deterministic analysis method has generally used to evaluate the slope stability and it evaluates the slope stability with decision value that is a representative value of design variables. However, one of disadvantages in the deterministic approach is there is not able to consider the uncertainty of soil strength properties, even though it is the biggest influential parameter of the slope stability. On the other hand, the limit state design(LSD) can take a consideration of uncertainties and computes both the reliability index and the probability of failure. LSD method is capable of overcoming the disadvantages of deterministic method and evaluating the slope stability more reliably. In this study, both the mean value and standard deviation of the internal land's representative soil strength properties applied to process the LSD method. The major purpose of this study is to gauge the general applicability of the limit state design in soil slope and to weigh the comparative validity of the proposed partial safety factor. In order to reach the aim of this study, the partial safety factor and resistance factor which totally satisfied the slope's overall safety factor were calculated by the load and resistance safety factor design (LRFD).

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제57권3호
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• pp.403-423
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• 2016

The challenges involved with fatigue damage assessment of steel catenary riser (SCR) in the touchdown zone (TDZ) are primarily due to the non-linear behaviour of the SCR-seabed interaction, considerable uncertainty in SCR-seabed interaction modelling and geotechnical parameters. The issue of fatigue damage induced by the cyclic movements of the SCR with the seabed has acquired prominence with the touch down point (TDP) interaction in the TDZ. Therefore, the SCR-seabed response is critical for reliable estimation of fatigue life in the TDZ. Various design approaches pertaining to the lateral pipe-soil resistance model are discussed. These techniques have been applied in the finite element model that can be used to analyse the lateral SCR-seabed interaction under hydrodynamic loading. This study investigates the sensitivity of fatigue performance to geotechnical parameters through a parametric study. In this study, global analyses are performed to assess the influence of vertical linear seabed springs, the lateral seabed model and the non-linear seabed model, including trench evolution into seabed, seabed normalised stiffness, re-penetration offset parameter and soil suction resistance ratio, on the fatigue life of SCRs in the TDZ.