Simulation-Based Assessment of Seismic Slope Stability

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A simulation-based approach that can be used to systematically model the uncertainties of seismic loading and geotechnical property is presented in the context of reliability analysis of slope stability. The uncertainty of seismic loading is studied by generating a large series of hazard-compatible artificial motions, and by using them in subsequent response analyses. The stochastic nature of spatially varying material properties and also the uncertainty arising from insufficient information are treated in the framework of random fields. The simulation-based analyses indicate that in a seismically less active region, a moderate variability in soil properties has a relatively large effect as much as characterization of earthquake hazard on the computed risk of slope failure and excessive slope deformations.