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영 변환 모형 산포형태모수와 두 적합도 검정통계량 사이의 유사성 비교 (Similarity between the dispersion parameter in zero-altered model and the two goodness-of-fit statistics)

  • 윤유정;김홍기
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제28권3호
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    • pp.493-504
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    • 2017
  • 통계청 인구총조사의 출생아 수 자료는 우리가 쉽게 접할 수 있는 가산 자료이며 국가경쟁력 제고를 위한 정부의 출산정책 결정 및 그 기대효과 분석의 기반이 되는 자료이다. 출생아 수 자료 분석에 있어서 포아송 모형 등 가산 모형이 우월하다는 선행 연구결과에 의하여 가산 모형을 통한 자료 분석방법이 활용되고 있다. 이 때 가산 모형에서 가장 많이 사용하는 포아송 모형은 균등상포라는 제한적인 가정을 토대로 하기 때문에 출생아 수 자료 분석에 이 포아송 모형을 그대로 적용한다면 정보의 손실과 편향추정을 피할 수 없게 된다. 이러한 한계를 극복하기 위해 Ghosh 와 Kim (2007)은 영 과잉과 부족으로 인한 과대산포와 과소산포를 동시에 설명할 수 있는 영 변환 모형 (zero-altered model)을 제안하였다. 본 논문에서는 Ghosh 와 Kim (2007)의 영 변환 모형을 적용하여 실제 출생아수분포에서 영 변환 모형의 산포형태모수 ${\delta}$를 도출하고 그 역할에 대하여 분석한다. 그리고 관측분포에서의 산포형태모수 ${\delta}$와 이론적분포와의 차이를 비교하기 위한 적합도 검정통계량과의 유사성을 확인한다.

해마와 피질의 상호 관계를 이용한 객체 기반 영상 검색 기법 (An Object-Based Image Retrieval Techniques using the Interplay between Cortex and Hippocampus)

  • 홍종선;강대성
    • 대한전자공학회논문지SP
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    • 제42권4호
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    • pp.95-102
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    • 2005
  • 본 논문에서는 해마와 피질 사이의 상호 작용을 이용하여 사용자 친화적인 객체 기반 영상 검색 시스템을 제안한다. 내용기반 영상 검색 시스템은 대부분 예제(example) 질의 혹은 스케치 질의 등을 이용하고 있고 이러한 방법들은 비교적 사용하기 불편하고 방법이 편중되어 있어서 일반 사용자들의 다양한 질의 요구에 적합하지 못하다. 제안하는 알고리즘은 CSB 트리맵 (Color and Spatial based Binary tree map)을 이용하여 객체를 추출하고 지역 라벨링 알고리즘을 이용하여 객체의 색상의 상관관계, 객체의 크기와 위치 정보를 비트 스트림 형태로 변환하고 이것을 해마와 피질 사이의 상호 작용의 관계를 이용한 해마 신경망을 사용하여 학습시킨다. 사람의 뇌 속에서 어떤 패턴을 인식을 하는 경우 해당 패턴의 특이한 특징에 대해 흥분하는 세포들이 특정 신호를 발생시킨다. 이것은 흥분학습에 의해 단기기억에서 장기기억으로 저장하는 해마의 기능으로 기존의 신경망에서는 입력되는 패턴의 특성과는 상관없이 특징 개수가 모두 동일하게 비교된다. 제안하는 해마 신경망은 호감도 조정에 의해서 입력되는 영상 패턴의 특징들을 흥분학습과 억제학습을 이용하여 불필요한 특징은 억제시키고 중요한 특징은 장기 기억 시켜서 적응성 있는 고속 검색 시스템을 구현한다.

국민건강보험 발전방향 (Future Direction of National Health Insurance)

  • 박은철
    • 보건행정학회지
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    • 제27권4호
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    • pp.273-275
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    • 2017
  • It has been forty years since the implementation of National Health Insurance (NHI) in South Korea. Following the 1977 legislature mandating medical insurance for employees and dependents in firms with more than 500 employees, South Korea expanded its health insurance to urban residents in 1989. Resultantly, total expenses of the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) have greatly increased from 4.5 billion won in 1977 to 50.89 trillion won in 2016. With multiple insurers merging into the NHI system in 2000, a single-payer healthcare system emerged, along with separation policy of prescribing and dispensing. Following such reform, an emerging financial crisis required injections from the National Health Promotion Fund. Forty years following the introduction of the NHI system, both praise and criticism have been drawn. In just 12 years, the NHI achieved the fastest health population coverage in the world. Current medical expenditure is not high relative to the rest of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The quality of acute care in Korea is one of the best in the world. There is no sign of delayed diagnosis and/or treatment for most diseases. However, the NHI has been under-insured, requiring high-levels of out-of-pocket money from patients and often causing catastrophic medical expenses. Furthermore, the current environmental circumstances of the NHI are threatening its sustainability. Low birth rate decline, as well as slow economic growth, will make sustainment of the current healthcare system difficult in the near future. An aging population will increase the amount of medical expenditure required, especially with the baby-boomer generation of those born between 1955 and 1965. Meanwhile, there is always the problem of unification for the Korean Peninsula, and what role the health insurance system will have to play when it occurs. In the presidential election, health insurance is a main issue; however, there is greater focus on expansion and expenditure than revenue. Many aspects of Korea's NHI system (1977) were modeled after the German (1883) and Japanese (1922) systems. Such systems were created during an era where infections disease control was most urgent and thus, in the current non-communicable disease (NCD) era, must be redesigned. The Korean system, which is already forty years old, must be redesigned completely. Although health insurance benefit expansion is necessary, financial measures, as well as moral hazard control measures, must also be considered. Ultimately, there are three aspects that we must consider when attempting redesign of the system. First, the health security system must be reformed. NHI and Medical Aid must be amalgamated into one system for increased effectiveness and efficiency of the system. Within the single insurer system of the NHI must be an internal market for maximum efficiency. The NHIS must be separated into regions so that regional organizers have greater responsibility over their actions. Although insurance must continue to be imposed nationally, risk-adjustment must be distributed regionally and assessed by different regional systems. Second, as a solution for the decreasing flow of insurance revenue, low premium level must be increased to an appropriate level. Likewise, the national reserve fund (No. 36, National Health Insurance Act) must be enlarged for re-unification preparation. Third, there must be revolutionary reform of benefit package. The current system built a focus on communicable diseases which is inappropriate in this NCD era. Medical benefits must not be one-time events but provide chronic disease management. Chronic care models, accountable care organization, patient-centered medical homes, and other systems that introduce various benefit packages for beneficiaries must be implemented. The reimbursement system of medical costs should be introduced to various systems for different types of care, as is the case with part C (Medicare Advantage Program) of America's Medicare system that substitutes part A and part B. Pay for performance must be expanded so that there is not only improvement in quality of care but also medical costs. Moreover, beneficiaries of the NHI system must be aware of the amount of their expenditure through a deductible payment system so that spending can be profiled and monitored. The Moon Jae-in Government has announced its plans to expand the NHI system; however, it is important that a discussion forum is created so that more accurate analysis of the NHI, its environments, and current status of health care system, can take place for reforming NHI.

다변량 프로빗 모형을 이용한 가전제품 구매의 상관관계 분석 (Correlation among Ownership of Home Appliances Using Multivariate Probit Model)

  • 김창섭;신정우;이미숙;이종수
    • 마케팅과학연구
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2009
  • As the lifestyle of consumers changes and the need for various products increases, new products are being developed in the market. Each household owns various home appliances which are purchased through the choice of a decision maker. These appliances include not only large-sized products such as TV, refrigerator, and washing machine, but also small-sized products such as microwave oven and air cleaner. There exists latent correlation among possession of home appliances, even though they are purchased independently. The purpose of this research is to analyze the effect of demographic factors on the purchase and possession of each home appliances, and to derive some relationships among various appliances. To achieve this purpose, the present status on the possession of each home appliances are investigated through consumer survey data on the electric and energy product. And a multivariate probit(MVP) model is applied for the empirical analysis. From the estimation results, some appliances show a substitutive or complementary pattern as expected, while others which look apparently unrelated have correlation by co-incidence. This research has several advantages compared to previous literatures on home appliances. First, this research focuses on the various products which are purchased by each household, while previous researches such as Matsukawa and Ito(1998) and Yoon(2007) focus just on a particular product. Second, the methodology of this research can consider a choice process of each product and correlation among products simultaneously. Lastly, this research can analyze not only a substitutive or complementary relationship in the same category, but also the correlation among products in the different categories. As the data on the possession of home appliances in each household has a characteristic of multiple choice, not a single choice, a MVP model are used for the empirical analysis. A MVP model is derived from a random utility model, and has an advantage compared to a multinomial logit model in that correlation among error terms can be derive(Manchanda et al., 1999; Edwards and Allenby, 2003). It is assumed that the error term has a normal distribution with zero mean and variance-covariance matrix ${\Omega}$. Hence, the sign and value of correlation coefficients means the relationship between two alternatives(Manchanda et al., 1999). This research uses the data of 'TEMEP Household ICT/Energy Survey (THIES) 2008' which is conducted by Technology Management, Economics and Policy Program in Seoul National University. The empirical analysis of this research is accomplished in two steps. First, a MVP model with demographic variables is estimated to analyze the effect of the characteristics of household on the purchase of each home appliances. In this research, some variables such as education level, region, size of family, average income, type of house are considered. Second, a MVP model excluding demographic variables is estimated to analyze the correlation among each home appliances. According to the estimation results of variance-covariance matrix, each households tend to own some appliances such as washing machine-refrigerator-cleaner-microwave oven, and air conditioner-dish washer-washing machine and so on. On the other hand, several products such as analog braun tube TV-digital braun tube TV and desktop PC-portable PC show a substitutive pattern. Lastly, the correlation map of home appliances are derived using multi-dimensional scaling(MDS) method based on the result of variance-covariance matrix. This research can provide significant implications for the firm's marketing strategies such as bundling, pricing, display and so on. In addition, this research can provide significant information for the development of convergence products and related technologies. A convergence product can decrease its market uncertainty, if two products which consumers tend to purchase together are integrated into it. The results of this research are more meaningful because it is based on the possession status of each household through the survey data.

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송과선 및 이소성 송과선 생식세포종의 감마 나이프 수술 후 재발 양상 (Failure Pattern of Pineal and Ectopic Pineal Germ Cell Tumor after Gamma Knife Radiosurgery)

  • 조흥래;손승창
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.92-100
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    • 2000
  • 목적 :본 연구의 목적은 뇌 생식 세포종 환자들의 방사선치료 시 가장 적절한 조사 영역을 알아보고자 시행하였다. 대상 및 방법 : 1993년부터 1998년까지 뇌 생식세포종으로 진단되거나 또는 추정되어 감마 나이프를 시행 받은 환자 19 명을 대상으로 분석하였다. 송과선 9예, 안상(suprasellar) 1예, 그 외 2군데 이상 다발성 병소가 9예였다. 조직이 확인이 된 예는 7예이었고 배아종(germ ceil tumor)이 5명, 내배엽동종(endodermal sinus tumor)이 2명이었다. 종양의 부피는 2.4 cm$^{3}$부터 74 cm$^{3}$ 까지 이었다. 감마나이프 방사선 치료는 50% 등선량 곡선을 중심으로 10 Gy부터 20 Gy에 걸쳐 조사되었다. 추적 기간은 10개월에서부터 54개월까지였다. 결과 : 총 19명 중 14명(74%)에서 재발을 하였다. 완전 관해와 부분 관해는 각각 2명(11%), 10명(53%)이었다. 무반응은 7명(36%)이었다. 원발 병소가 있었던 자리에서 재발한 경우가 2예, 치료 조사영역을 벗어났으나 원발 병소와 연결되어서 그 주위로 재발한 경우가 6예 이었다. 원발 병소와 떨어져서 뇌실 재발이 된 경우 3예, 척수 전이가 된 경우가 4예 이었다. 종양의 부피가 20 cm$^{3}$ 이하인 경우는 8예이었으며 이중 2예는 치료 조사영역 내에서만 재발한 경우, 4예는 원발 병소와 연이어져서 치료 부위 주위로 재발한 경우, 1예는 척수 전이된 경우이었다. 종양의 부피가 20 cm$^{3}$ 보다 큰 경우는 6예 이었으며 그 중 원발 병소와 연이어져서 치료 부위 주위에 재발한 경우 1예, 원발 병소와 떨어져서 뇌실 전이가 된 경우가 2예, 척수 전이를 일으킨 경우가 3예였다. 재발을 하지 않은 5예는 종양의 부피가 20 cm$^{3}$ 이하인 경우이고 모두 단일 병소이며 종양기표가 모두 정상이었다. 척수 전이는 4예(21%)에서 발생하였으며 모두 뇌실 침범이 있는 경우에 발생하였다. 총 9명의 다발성 병소 중 국소 재발만을 한 경우는 3경우이었고 나머지는 모두 치료 조사영역을 벗어나 원발 병소와 떨어져서 재발하였다. 결론 : 감마 나이프 치료가 뇌 생식세포종에 대한 치료로서는 부적절한 치료이며 이것은 감마 나이프의 특성인 작은 치료 용적과 조사 선량의 부적절함에서 기인하는 것으로 판단된다. 뇌 생식 세포종에서 병소 부위 만을 치료하는 경은 종양의 부피와 다발성 병소의 뇌실 침범 유무가 치료 성공의 열쇠이다. 20 cm$^{3}$ 이하, 단일 병소, 뇌실 침범이 혀는 경우, 정상적인 종양지표, 등이 가장 이상적인 적응증이 될 수 있다. 다발성 병소에서 뇌실 침범이나 뇌실 병소가 있을 경우는 예방적 뇌 척수 조사를 고려해야 할 것으로 생각된다. 병소의 크기가 cm$^{3}$ 보다 클 경우 다발성 병소인 경우, 종양지표의 증가가 있는 경우에는 확정적인 제안을 하기는 어렵지만 전 뇌실 조사 또는 부분방사선 조사가 시도될 수 있을 것으로 생각되며 이 경우가 선행 화학 요법과 함께 치료할 수 있는 대상이며, 앞으로 이 부분에 대한 연구가 계속 이루어질 것으로 생각된다.

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디자인의 형태와 기능에 관한 연구 (Essay on Form and Function Design)

  • 이재국
    • 디자인학연구
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    • 제2권1호
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    • pp.63-97
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    • 1989
  • There is nothing more important than the form and function in design, because every design product can be done on the basis of them. Form and Function are already existed before the word of design has been appeared and all the natural and man-made things' basic organization is based on their organic relations. The organic relations is the source of vitality which identifies the subsistance of all the objects and the evolution of living creatures has been changed their appearances by the natural law and order. Design is no exception. Design is a man-made organic thing which is developed its own way according to the purposed aim and given situations. If so, what is the ultimate goal of design. It is without saying that the goal is to make every effort to contribute to the -human beings most desirable life by the designer who is devoting himself to their convenience and well-being. Therefore, the designer can be called the man of rich life practitioner. This word implies a lot of meanings since the essence of design is improving the guality of life by the man-made things which are created by the designer. Also, the things are existed through the relations between form and function, and the things can keep their value when they are answered to the right purpose. In design, thus, it is to be a main concern how to create valuable things and to use them in the right way, and the subject of study is focused on the designer's outlook of value and uk relations between form and function. Christopher Alexander mentioned the importance of form as follows. The ultimate object of design is form. Every design problem begins with an effort to achieve fittness between the form and its context. The form is the solution to the problem: the context defmes the problem. In other words, when we speak of design, the real object of discussion is not form alone, but the ensemble comprising the form and its context. Good fit is a desirable property of this ensemble which relates to some particular division of the ensemble into form and context. Max Bill mainatined how important form is in design. Form represents a self-contained concept, and its embodiment in an object results in that object becoming a work of art. Futhermore, this explains why we use form so freguently in a comparative sense for determining whether one thing is less or more beautiful than another, and why the ideal of absolute beauty is always the standard by which we appraise form, and through form, art itself. Hence form has became synonymous with beauty. On the other hand, Laszlo Moholy-Nagy stated the importance of function as follows. Function means the task an object is designed to fulfill the task instrument is shaping the form. Unfortunately, this principle was not appreciated at the same time but through the endeavors of Frank Lloyd Wright and of the Bauhaus group and its many collegues in Europe, the idea of functionalism became the keynote of the twenites. Functionalism soon became a cheap slogan, however, and its original meaning blurred. It is neccessary to reexamine it in the light of present circumstances. Charles William Eliot expressed his idea on the relations between function and beauty. Beauty often results chiefly from fittness: indeed it is easy to manitain that nothing is fair except what is fit its uses or functions. If the function of the product of a machine be useful and valuable, an the machine be eminently fit for its function, it conspicuously has the beauty of fittness. A locomotive or a steamship has the same sort of beauty, derived from the supreme fittness for its function. As functions vary, so will those beauty..vary. However, it is impossible to study form and function in separate beings. Function can't be existed without form, and without function, form is nothing. In other words, form is a function's container, and function is content in form. It can be said that, therefore, the form and function are indispensable and commensal individuals which have coetemal relations. From the different point of view, sometimes, one is more emphasized than the other, but in this case, the logic is only accepted on the assumption of recognizing the importance of the other's entity. The fact can be proved what Frank Hoyd wright said that form and function are one. In spite of that, the form and function should be considered as independent indivisuals, because they are too important to be treated just as the simple single one. Form and function have flexible properties to the context. In other words, the context plays a role as the barometer to define the form and function, also which implies every meaning of surroun'||'&'||'not;dings. Thus, design is formed under the influence of situations. Situations are dynamic, like the design process itself, in which fixed focus can be cripping. Moreover, situations control over making the good design. Judging from the respect, I defined the good design in my thesis An Analytic Research on Desigh Ethic, "good design is to solve the problem by the most proper way in the situations." Situations are changeable, and so is design. There is no progress without change, but change is not neccessarily progress. It is highly desirable that there changes be beneficial to mankind. Our main problem is to be able to discriminate between that which should be discarded and that which should be kept, built upon, and improved. Form and Function are no exception. The practical function gives birth to the inevitable form and the $$\mu$ti-classified function is delivered to the varieties of form. All of these are depended upon changeable situations. That is precisely the situations of "situation de'||'&'||'not;sign", the concept of moving from the design of things to the design of the circumstances in which things are used. From this point of view, the core of form and function is depended upon how the designer can manage it efficiently in given situations. That is to say that the creativity designer plays an important role to fulfill the purpose. Generally speaking, creativity is the organization of a concept in response to a human need-a solution that is both satisfying and innovative. In order to meet human needs, creative design activities require a special intuitive insight which is set into motion by purposeful imagination. Therefore, creativity is the most essential quality of every designer. In addition, designers share with other creative people a compulsive ingenuity and a passion for imaginative solutions which will meet their criteria for excellence. Ultimately, it is said that the form and function is the matter which belongs to the desire of creative designers who constantly try to bring new thing into being to create new things. In accordance with that the main puppose of this thesis is to catch every meaning of the form and function and to close analyze their relations for the promotion of understanding and devising practical application to gradual progression in design. The thesis is composed of four parts: Introduction, Form, Function and Conclusion. Introduction, the purpose and background of the research are presented. In Chapter I, orgin of form, perception of form, and classification of form are studied. In Chapter II, generation of function, development of function, and diversification of function are considered. Conclusion, some concluding words are mentioned.ioned.

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유역특성에 의한 합성단위도의 유도에 관한 연구 (Derivation of the Synthetic Unit Hydrograph Based on the Watershed Characteristics)

  • 서승덕
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.3642-3654
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    • 1975
  • The purpose of this thesis is to derive a unit hydrograph which may be applied to the ungaged watershed area from the relations between directly measurable unitgraph properties such as peak discharge(qp), time to peak discharge (Tp), and lag time (Lg) and watershed characteristics such as river length(L) from the given station to the upstream limits of the watershed area in km, river length from station to centroid of gravity of the watershed area in km (Lca), and main stream slope in meter per km (S). Other procedure based on routing a time-area diagram through catchment storage named Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(IUH). Dimensionless unitgraph also analysed in brief. The basic data (1969 to 1973) used in these studies are 9 recording level gages and rating curves, 41 rain gages and pluviographs, and 40 observed unitgraphs through the 9 sub watersheds in Nak Oong River basin. The results summarized in these studies are as follows; 1. Time in hour from start of rise to peak rate (Tp) generally occured at the position of 0.3Tb (time base of hydrograph) with some indication of higher values for larger watershed. The base flow is comparelatively higher than the other small watershed area. 2. Te losses from rainfall were divided into initial loss and continuing loss. Initial loss may be defined as that portion of storm rainfall which is intercepted by vegetation, held in deppression storage or infiltrated at a high rate early in the storm and continuing loss is defined as the loss which continues at a constant rate throughout the duration of the storm after the initial loss has been satisfied. Tis continuing loss approximates the nearly constant rate of infiltration (${\Phi}$-index method). The loss rate from this analysis was estimated 50 Per cent to the rainfall excess approximately during the surface runoff occured. 3. Stream slope seems approximate, as is usual, to consider the mainstreamonly, not giving any specific consideration to tributary. It is desirable to develop a single measure of slope that is representative of the who1e stream. The mean slope of channel increment in 1 meter per 200 meters and 1 meter per 1400 meters were defined at Gazang and Jindong respectively. It is considered that the slopes are low slightly in the light of other river studies. Flood concentration rate might slightly be low in the Nak Dong river basin. 4. It found that the watershed lag (Lg, hrs) could be expressed by Lg=0.253 (L.Lca)0.4171 The product L.Lca is a measure of the size and shape of the watershed. For the logarithms, the correlation coefficient for Lg was 0.97 which defined that Lg is closely related with the watershed characteristics, L and Lca. 5. Expression for basin might be expected to take form containing theslope as {{{{ { L}_{g }=0.545 {( { L. { L}_{ca } } over { SQRT {s} } ) }^{0.346 } }}}} For the logarithms, the correlation coefficient for Lg was 0.97 which defined that Lg is closely related with the basin characteristics too. It should be needed to take care of analysis which relating to the mean slopes 6. Peak discharge per unit area of unitgraph for standard duration tr, ㎥/sec/$\textrm{km}^2$, was given by qp=10-0.52-0.0184Lg with a indication of lower values for watershed contrary to the higher lag time. For the logarithms, the correlation coefficient qp was 0.998 which defined high sign ificance. The peak discharge of the unitgraph for an area could therefore be expected to take the from Qp=qp. A(㎥/sec). 7. Using the unitgraph parameter Lg, the base length of the unitgraph, in days, was adopted as {{{{ {T}_{b } =0.73+2.073( { { L}_{g } } over {24 } )}}}} with high significant correlation coefficient, 0.92. The constant of the above equation are fixed by the procedure used to separate base flow from direct runoff. 8. The width W75 of the unitgraph at discharge equal to 75 per cent of the peak discharge, in hours and the width W50 at discharge equal to 50 Per cent of the peak discharge in hours, can be estimated from {{{{ { W}_{75 }= { 1.61} over { { q}_{b } ^{1.05 } } }}}} and {{{{ { W}_{50 }= { 2.5} over { { q}_{b } ^{1.05 } } }}}} respectively. This provides supplementary guide for sketching the unitgraph. 9. Above equations define the three factors necessary to construct the unitgraph for duration tr. For the duration tR, the lag is LgR=Lg+0.2(tR-tr) and this modified lag, LgRis used in qp and Tb It the tr happens to be equal to or close to tR, further assume qpR=qp. 10. Triangular hydrograph is a dimensionless unitgraph prepared from the 40 unitgraphs. The equation is shown as {{{{ { q}_{p } = { K.A.Q} over { { T}_{p } } }}}} or {{{{ { q}_{p } = { 0.21A.Q} over { { T}_{p } } }}}} The constant 0.21 is defined to Nak Dong River basin. 11. The base length of the time-area diagram for the IUH routing is {{{{C=0.9 {( { L. { L}_{ca } } over { SQRT { s} } ) }^{1/3 } }}}}. Correlation coefficient for C was 0.983 which defined a high significance. The base length of the T-AD was set to equal the time from the midpoint of rain fall excess to the point of contraflexure. The constant K, derived in this studies is K=8.32+0.0213 {{{{ { L} over { SQRT { s} } }}}} with correlation coefficient, 0.964. 12. In the light of the results analysed in these studies, average errors in the peak discharge of the Synthetic unitgraph, Triangular unitgraph, and IUH were estimated as 2.2, 7.7 and 6.4 per cent respectively to the peak of observed average unitgraph. Each ordinate of the Synthetic unitgraph was approached closely to the observed one.

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