• Title/Summary/Keyword: short-term prediction

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Prediction of DO Concentration in Nakdong River Estuary through Case Study Based on Long Short Term Memory Model (Long Short Term Memory 모델 기반 Case Study를 통한 낙동강 하구역의 용존산소농도 예측)

  • Park, Seongsik;Kim, Kyunghoi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.238-245
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    • 2021
  • In this study, we carried out case study to predict dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration of Nakdong river estuary with LSTM model. we aimed to figure out a optimal model condition and appropriate predictor for prediction in dissolved oxygen concentration with model parameter and predictor as cases. Model parameter case study results showed that Epoch = 300 and Sequence length = 1 showed higher accuracy than other conditions. In predictor case study, it was highest accuracy where DO and Temperature were used as a predictor, it was caused by high correlation between DO concentration and Temperature. From above results, we figured out an appropriate model condition and predictor for prediction in DO concentration of Nakdong river estuary.

Prediction of the DO concentration using the machine learning algorithm: case study in Oncheoncheon, Republic of Korea

  • Lim, Heesung;An, Hyunuk;Choi, Eunhyuk;Kim, Yeonsu
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.1029-1037
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    • 2020
  • The machine learning algorithm has been widely used in water-related fields such as water resources, water management, hydrology, atmospheric science, water quality, water level prediction, weather forecasting, water discharge prediction, water quality forecasting, etc. However, water quality prediction studies based on the machine learning algorithm are limited compared to other water-related applications because of the limited water quality data. Most of the previous water quality prediction studies have predicted monthly water quality, which is useful information but not enough from a practical aspect. In this study, we predicted the dissolved oxygen (DO) using recurrent neural network with long short-term memory model recurrent neural network long-short term memory (RNN-LSTM) algorithms with hourly- and daily-datasets. Bugok Bridge in Oncheoncheon, located in Busan, where the data was collected in real time, was selected as the target for the DO prediction. The 10-month (temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity) data were used as time prediction inputs, and the 5-year (temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and rainfall) data were used as the daily forecast inputs. Missing data were filled by linear interpolation. The prediction model was coded based on TensorFlow, an open-source library developed by Google. The performance of the RNN-LSTM algorithm for the hourly- or daily-based water quality prediction was tested and analyzed. Research results showed that the hourly data for the water quality is useful for machine learning, and the RNN-LSTM algorithm has potential to be used for hourly- or daily-based water quality forecasting.

Forecasting Fish Import Using Deep Learning: A Comprehensive Analysis of Two Different Fish Varieties in South Korea

  • Abhishek Chaudhary;Sunoh Choi
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.134-144
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    • 2023
  • Nowadays, Deep Learning (DL) technology is being used in several government departments. South Korea imports a lot of seafood. If the demand for fishery products is not accurately predicted, then there will be a shortage of fishery products and the price of the fishery product may rise sharply. So, South Korea's Ministry of Ocean and Fisheries is attempting to accurately predict seafood imports using deep learning. This paper introduces the solution for the fish import prediction in South Korea using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method. It was found that there was a huge gap between the sum of consumption and export against the sum of production especially in the case of two species that are Hairtail and Pollock. An import prediction is suggested in this research to fill the gap with some advanced Deep Learning methods. This research focuses on import prediction using Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning methods to predict the import amount more precisely. For the prediction, two Deep Learning methods were chosen which are Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Moreover, the Machine Learning method was also selected for the comparison between the DL and ML. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was selected for the error measurement which shows the difference between the predicted and actual values. The results obtained were compared with the average RMSE scores and in terms of percentage. It was found that the LSTM has the lowest RMSE score which showed the prediction with higher accuracy. Meanwhile, ML's RMSE score was higher which shows lower accuracy in prediction. Moreover, Google Trend Search data was used as a new feature to find its impact on prediction outcomes. It was found that it had a positive impact on results as the RMSE values were lowered, increasing the accuracy of the prediction.

Multivariate Congestion Prediction using Stacked LSTM Autoencoder based Bidirectional LSTM Model

  • Vijayalakshmi, B;Thanga, Ramya S;Ramar, K
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.216-238
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    • 2023
  • In intelligent transportation systems, traffic management is an important task. The accurate forecasting of traffic characteristics like flow, congestion, and density is still active research because of the non-linear nature and uncertainty of the spatiotemporal data. Inclement weather, such as rain and snow, and other special events such as holidays, accidents, and road closures have a significant impact on driving and the average speed of vehicles on the road, which lowers traffic capacity and causes congestion in a widespread manner. This work designs a model for multivariate short-term traffic congestion prediction using SLSTM_AE-BiLSTM. The proposed design consists of a Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory(BiLSTM) network to predict traffic flow value and a Convolutional Neural network (CNN) model for detecting the congestion status. This model uses spatial static temporal dynamic data. The stacked Long Short Term Memory Autoencoder (SLSTM AE) is used to encode the weather features into a reduced and more informative feature space. BiLSTM model is used to capture the features from the past and present traffic data simultaneously and also to identify the long-term dependencies. It uses the traffic data and encoded weather data to perform the traffic flow prediction. The CNN model is used to predict the recurring congestion status based on the predicted traffic flow value at a particular urban traffic network. In this work, a publicly available Caltrans PEMS dataset with traffic parameters is used. The proposed model generates the congestion prediction with an accuracy rate of 92.74% which is slightly better when compared with other deep learning models for congestion prediction.

Comparative Analysis of PM10 Prediction Performance between Neural Network Models

  • Jung, Yong-Jin;Oh, Chang-Heon
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.241-247
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    • 2021
  • Particulate matter has emerged as a serious global problem, necessitating highly reliable information on the matter. Therefore, various algorithms have been used in studies to predict particulate matter. In this study, we compared the prediction performance of neural network models that have been actively studied for particulate matter prediction. Among the neural network algorithms, a deep neural network (DNN), a recurrent neural network, and long short-term memory were used to design the optimal prediction model using a hyper-parameter search. In the comparative analysis of the prediction performance of each model, the DNN model showed a lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the other algorithms in the performance comparison using the RMSE and the level of accuracy as metrics for evaluation. The stability of the recurrent neural network was slightly lower than that of the other algorithms, although the accuracy was higher.

LSTM-based Sales Forecasting Model

  • Hong, Jun-Ki
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.1232-1245
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    • 2021
  • In this study, prediction of product sales as they relate to changes in temperature is proposed. This model uses long short-term memory (LSTM), which has shown excellent performance for time series predictions. For verification of the proposed sales prediction model, the sales of short pants, flip-flop sandals, and winter outerwear are predicted based on changes in temperature and time series sales data for clothing products collected from 2015 to 2019 (a total of 1,865 days). The sales predictions using the proposed model show increases in the sale of shorts and flip-flops as the temperature rises (a pattern similar to actual sales), while the sale of winter outerwear increases as the temperature decreases.

Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Sequential Relevance Vector Machine

  • Jang, Youngchan
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.318-324
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    • 2015
  • This paper proposes a dynamic short-term load forecasting method that utilizes a new sequential learning algorithm based on Relevance Vector Machine (RVM). The method performs general optimization of weights and hyperparameters using the current relevance vectors and newly arriving data. By doing so, the proposed algorithm is trained with the most recent data. Consequently, it extends the RVM algorithm to real-time and nonstationary learning processes. The results of application of the proposed algorithm to prediction of electrical loads indicate that its accuracy is comparable to that of existing nonparametric learning algorithms. Further, the proposed model reduces computational complexity.

Fuel Consumption Prediction and Life Cycle History Management System Using Historical Data of Agricultural Machinery

  • Jung Seung Lee;Soo Kyung Kim
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2022
  • This study intends to link agricultural machine history data with related organizations or collect them through IoT sensors, receive input from agricultural machine users and managers, and analyze them through AI algorithms. Through this, the goal is to track and manage the history data throughout all stages of production, purchase, operation, and disposal of agricultural machinery. First, LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) is used to estimate oil consumption and recommend maintenance from historical data of agricultural machines such as tractors and combines, and C-LSTM (Convolution Long Short-Term Memory) is used to diagnose and determine failures. Memory) to build a deep learning algorithm. Second, in order to collect historical data of agricultural machinery, IoT sensors including GPS module, gyro sensor, acceleration sensor, and temperature and humidity sensor are attached to agricultural machinery to automatically collect data. Third, event-type data such as agricultural machine production, purchase, and disposal are automatically collected from related organizations to design an interface that can integrate the entire life cycle history data and collect data through this.

Performance Assessment of Two-stream Convolutional Long- and Short-term Memory Model for September Arctic Sea Ice Prediction from 2001 to 2021 (Two-stream Convolutional Long- and Short-term Memory 모델의 2001-2021년 9월 북극 해빙 예측 성능 평가)

  • Chi, Junhwa
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.6_1
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    • pp.1047-1056
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    • 2022
  • Sea ice, frozen sea water, in the Artic is a primary indicator of global warming. Due to its importance to the climate system, shipping-route navigation, and fisheries, Arctic sea ice prediction has gained increased attention in various disciplines. Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI), motivated by a desire to develop more autonomous and efficient future predictions, have led to the development of new sea ice prediction models as alternatives to conventional numerical and statistical prediction models. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the two-stream convolutional long-and short-term memory (TS-ConvLSTM) AI model, which is designed for learning both global and local characteristics of the Arctic sea ice changes, for the minimum September Arctic sea ice from 2001 to 2021, and to show the possibility for an operational prediction system. Although the TS-ConvLSTM model generally increased the prediction performance as training data increased, predictability for the marginal ice zone, 5-50% concentration, showed a negative trend due to increasing first-year sea ice and warming. Additionally, a comparison of sea ice extent predicted by the TS-ConvLSTM with the median Sea Ice Outlooks (SIOs) submitted to the Sea Ice Prediction Network has been carried out. Unlike the TS-ConvLSTM, the median SIOs did not show notable improvements as time passed (i.e., the amount of training data increased). Although the TS-ConvLSTM model has shown the potential for the operational sea ice prediction system, learning more spatio-temporal patterns in the difficult-to-predict natural environment for the robust prediction system should be considered in future work.

Short-term Wind Power Prediction Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Improved Extreme Learning Machine

  • Tian, Zhongda;Ren, Yi;Wang, Gang
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.1841-1851
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    • 2018
  • For the safe and stable operation of the power system, accurate wind power prediction is of great significance. A wind power prediction method based on empirical mode decomposition and improved extreme learning machine is proposed in this paper. Firstly, wind power time series is decomposed into several components with different frequency by empirical mode decomposition, which can reduce the non-stationary of time series. The components after decomposing remove the long correlation and promote the different local characteristics of original wind power time series. Secondly, an improved extreme learning machine prediction model is introduced to overcome the sample data updating disadvantages of standard extreme learning machine. Different improved extreme learning machine prediction model of each component is established. Finally, the prediction value of each component is superimposed to obtain the final result. Compared with other prediction models, the simulation results demonstrate that the proposed prediction method has better prediction accuracy for wind power.