• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.1-13
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• 2016

This study attempts to establish a precise forecast model for the container inventory demand of shipping companies through forecasts based on equipment type/size, ports, and weekly system dynamics. The forecast subjects were Shanghai and Yantian Ports. Only dry containers (20, 40) and high cubes (40) were used as the subject container inventory in this study due to their large demand and valid data computation. The simulation period was from 2011 to 2017 and weekly data were used, applying the actual data frequency among shipping companies. The results of the model accuracy test obtained through an application of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) verified that the forecast model for dry 40' demand, dry 40' high cube demand, dry 20' supply, dry 40' supply, and dry 40' high cube supply in Shanghai Port provided an accurate prediction, with $0%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}10%$. The forecast model for supply and demand in Shanghai Port was otherwise verified to have relatively high prediction power, with $10%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}20%$. The forecast model for dry 40' high cube demand and dry 20' supply in Yantian Port was accurate, with $0%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}10%$. The forecast model for supply and demand in Yantian Port was generally verified to have relatively high prediction power, with $10%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}20%$. The forecast model in this study also had relatively high accuracy when compared with the actueal data managed in shipping companies.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.131-140
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• 2015

The main aim of this paper, via the method of statistical data analysis, is to analyze the current situation of the shipping industry and policies of the shipping industry in Vietnam. Section 1 gives some key information about the current situation of the shipping industry in Vietnam such as: shipping companies and their fleets, seafarers and ports. In view of the many restrictions faced by the Vietnamese shipping industry, section 2 is used to disclose the policies issued by the Vietnamese government in order to help the domestic maritime industry develop further in the near future, and the outcomes of implementing these policies. Besides the fact that some of the measures were feasible and reasonable, some others were not as effective as they were supposed to be, or in fact the initial forecast of their effectiveness was far-fetched. In the last section, after analyzing reasons for the failures, the author proposes that focusing on coastal transportation routes, fleet and port restructuring and skilled labour training were truly necessary to the development of the industry in the immediate period. Furthermore, this paper is also expected to provide a basic foundation for further research by the authors about 'the strategical approach for the development of shipping industry in developing countries: a case of Vietnam' in the near future.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.75-87
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to utilize the system dynamics to carry out a medium and long-term forecasting analysis of the bunker price. In order to secure accurate bunker price forecast, a quantitative analysis was established based on the casual loop diagram between various variables that affects bunker price. Based on various configuration variables such as crude oil price which affects crude oil consumption & production, GDP and exchange rate which influences economic changes and freight rate which is decided by supply and demand in shipping and logistic market were used in accordance with System Dynamics to forecast bunker price and then objectivity was verified through MAPEs. Based on the result of this study, bunker price is expected to rise until 2029 compared to 2016 but it will not be near the surge sighted in 2012. This study holds value in two ways. First, it supports shipping companies to efficiently manage its fleet, offering comprehensive bunker price risk management by presenting structural relationship between various variables affecting bunker price. Second, rational result derived from bunker price forecast by utilizing dynamic casual loop between various variables.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.15-30
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• 2024

This study examined the current status of the number of ships and marine officers in the coastal shipping in order to successfully solve the problem of the shortage of manpower. Then it forecast the number of costal ships by ship size and the demand of coastal marine officers by applying the crew quota of the Ship Personnel Act. In addition, The supply of manpower was predicted using the Markov model, reflecting the number of turnover and retirements by year, as well as the number of new entrants and incomer from ocean-going shipping. As a result of forecasts, the demand for coastal marine officers is forecast to increase from 6,057 in 2023 to 7,079 in 2030, and the supply is forecast to decrease from 5,771 in 2023 to 5,130 in 2030, showing that the manpower of shortage is worsening. This study analyzed the problem of the shortage of lower-level licensed coastal marine officers and objectively forecast the demand and supply of manpower through quantitative analysis. In order to resolve the manpower shortage, it was proposed to expand the training and supply of 5th and 6th grade low-level licensed coastal marine officers. This study will be able to provide useful data to solve the problem of shortage of manpower for coastal shipping.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.319-325
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• 2005

The objective of this paper is to forecast the port productivity of container terminal to response very large container ship. In general, the productivity of container terminal is evaluated by productivity of stevedoring system including container cranes, yard cranes, and yard tractors. Therefore, we analyzed the current productivity of container crane as port productivity in Pusan ports and forecast net productivity and gross productivity of container cranes to handle the containers cf very large container ship. In order to improve the productivity, we summarize alternatives of stevedoring system and operation system.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.67-76
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• 2013

It has been more than four years since the outbreak of global financial crisis. However, the world economy continues to be challenged with new crisis such as the European debt crisis and the fiscal cliff issue of the U.S. The global economic environment remains fragile and prone to further disappointment, although the balance of risks is now less skewed to the downside than it has been in recent years. It's no wonder that maritime business will be bearish since the global business affects the maritime business directly as well as indirectly. This paper, hence, aims to predict the Baltic Dry Index representing the shipping business using the ARIMA-type models and Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique. The monthly data cover the period January 2000 through January 2013. The out-of-sample forecasting performance is measured by three summary statistics: root mean squared percent error, mean absolute percent error and mean percent error. These forecasting performances are also compared with those of the random walk model. This study shows that the ARIMA models including Intervention-ARIMA have lower rmse than random walk model. This means that it's appropriate to forecast BDI using the ARIMA models. This paper predicts that the shipping market will be more bearish in 2013 than the year 2012. These pessimistic ex-ante forecasts are supported by the Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.1-16
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• 1984

The economical property of a shipping enterprise, as well as other transportation industries, is determined by the difference between the freight earned and expense paid. This study can be regarded as a division of optimizing ship allocation to routes under the integrated port transport system. Fleet planning and scheduling require complicated allocations of cargoes to ships and ships to routes in order to optimize the given criterion function for a given forecast period. This paper deals with the optimum ship allocation problem minimizing the operating cost of ships in a shipping company. Optimum fleet operating for a shipping enterprise is very important, since the marine transportation is a form of large quantity transport requiring long-term period, and there is a strong possibility to bring about large amount of loss in operation resulting from a faulty ship allocation. Where there are more than one loading and discharging ports, and a variety of ship's ability in speed, capacity, operating cost etc., and when the amount of commodities to be transported between the ports has been determined, then the ship's schedule minimizing the operating cost while satisfying the transport demand within the predetermined period will be made up. First of all a formula of ship allocation problems will be established and then will be constructed to solve an example by the Integer Programming application after consideration of the ship's ability, supply and demand of commodity, amount of commodity to be transported, operating costs of each ship etc. This study will give good information on deciding intention for a ship oprator or owner to meet the computerization current with shiping management.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.359-388
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• 2024

With the escalation of global trade, the Chinese commodity futures market has ascended to a pivotal role within the international shipping landscape. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), a leading indicator of the shipping industry's health, is particularly sensitive to the vicissitudes of the Chinese commodity futures sector. Nevertheless, a significant research gap exists regarding the application of Chinese commodity futures prices as predictive tools for the SCFI. To address this gap, the present study employs a comprehensive dataset spanning daily observations from March 24, 2017, to May 27, 2022, encompassing a total of 29,308 data points. We have crafted an innovative deep learning model that synergistically combines Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architectures. The outcomes show that the CNN-LSTM model does a great job of finding the nonlinear dynamics in the SCFI dataset and accurately capturing its long-term temporal dependencies. The model can handle changes in random sample selection, data frequency, and structural shifts within the dataset. It achieved an impressive R² of 96.6% and did better than the LSTM and CNN models that were used alone. This research underscores the predictive prowess of the Chinese futures market in influencing the Shipping Cost Index, deepening our understanding of the intricate relationship between the shipping industry and the financial sphere. Furthermore, it broadens the scope of machine learning applications in maritime transportation management, paving the way for SCFI forecasting research. The study's findings offer potent decision-support tools and risk management solutions for logistics enterprises, shipping corporations, and governmental entities.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2006.10a
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• pp.144-153
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• 2006

In order to take TC forecasts from different observatories into consideration, and make quantitative assessment and analysis for avoiding TC routes from the view of safety and cost, a new safe-economic decision making method of TC avoidance routing on ocean was put forward. This model is based on combining forecast of TC trace based on neural networks, technical method to determine the future TC wind and wave fields, technical method of fuzzy information optimization, risk analysis theory, and meteorological-economic decision making theory. It has applied to the simulation of MV Tianlihai's shipping on ocean. The result shows that the model can select the optimum plan from 7 plans, the selected plan is in accordance with the one selected by experienced captains.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.157-178
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• 2016

The purpose of this study is to forecast the ship-management market size and to propose a management improvement scheme to support Korean ship management companies in the stagnating world shipping market. Recently, global shipping companies have begun outsourcing all ship management activities. However, the Korean ship-management market represents just 3.75% of ocean shipping companies' sales, making it necessary to enlarge this market. This study performs a business analysis of ship management companies in Korea. The findings show that these companies' profitability and financial structures are not very good, mainly because of insufficient management ability and small firm sizes. Therefore, we propose that the Korean government supports crew training programs and shipping financial systems.