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Forecasting Bunker Price Using System Dynamics  

Choi, Jung-Suk (한국선급 해운거래정보센터)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Port Economic Association / v.33, no.1, 2017 , pp. 75-87 More about this Journal
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to utilize the system dynamics to carry out a medium and long-term forecasting analysis of the bunker price. In order to secure accurate bunker price forecast, a quantitative analysis was established based on the casual loop diagram between various variables that affects bunker price. Based on various configuration variables such as crude oil price which affects crude oil consumption & production, GDP and exchange rate which influences economic changes and freight rate which is decided by supply and demand in shipping and logistic market were used in accordance with System Dynamics to forecast bunker price and then objectivity was verified through MAPEs. Based on the result of this study, bunker price is expected to rise until 2029 compared to 2016 but it will not be near the surge sighted in 2012. This study holds value in two ways. First, it supports shipping companies to efficiently manage its fleet, offering comprehensive bunker price risk management by presenting structural relationship between various variables affecting bunker price. Second, rational result derived from bunker price forecast by utilizing dynamic casual loop between various variables.
Keywords
System Dynamics; Bunker Price; Shipping Market; MAPEs; Correlation;
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