• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.17-24
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• 2008

Traffic accident forecasting model has been developed steadily to understand factors affecting traffic accidents and to reduce them. In Korea, the length of highways is over 3,000km, and it is within the top ten in the world. However, the number of accidents-per-one kilometer highway is higher than any other countries. The rapid increase of travel demand and transportation infrastructures since 1980's may influence on the high rates of traffic accident. Accident severity is one of the important indices as well as the rate of accident and factors such as road geometric conditions, driver characteristics and type of vehicles may be related to traffic accident severity. However, since all these factors are interacted complicatedly, the interactions are not easily identified. A structural equations model is adopted to capture the complex relationships among variables. In the model estimation, we use 2,880 accident data on highways in Korea. The SEM with several factors mentioned above as endogenous and exogenous variables shows that they have complex and strong relationships.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.4 s.165
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• pp.373-382
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• 2006

In this study a theoretical drought severity-duration-frequency analysis is performed based on a simple Rectangular Pulses Poisson Process Model(RPPM). Data set with various durations are prepared for a given truncation level, whose statistics are then derived to be used for parameter estimation. These parameters are then used for the theoretical drought severity-duration-frequency analysis. The analysis is considered for two cases; one is to consider the overlap probability and the other is not. The drought severity of considering the overlap probability increases more as the return period increases. However, the overlap probability itself decreases as the duration increases, which is because the occurrence probability of events decreases as the duration increases. Also, if the duration increases, the events rarely or even not occur, since parameters of the model cannot be estimated in those cases, so the drought severity may not be computed. This is an obvious limitation of the simple RPPM. In this study the return periods of the important drought events occurred in Seoul are estimated using the results of the study. If the return period of an event is assumed to be the longest one among those with various durations, the return periods of some important event in Seoul are estimated to be between 14 and 35 years. These return periods are not so long to indicate that these droughts can occur frequently.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.577-587
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• 2018

The quantitative assessment of the seismic collapse risk of a structure requires the usage of an optimal intensity measure (IM) which can adequately characterise the severity of the ground motion. Research suggests that the average spectral acceleration ($Sa_{avg}$) may be an efficient and sufficient alternate IM as compared to the more traditional first mode spectral acceleration, $Sa(T_1)$, particularly during seismic collapse risk estimation. This study primarily presents a comparative evaluation of the sufficiency of the average spectral acceleration with respect to ground motion duration, and secondarily assesses the impact of ground motion duration on collapse risk estimation. By assembling a suite of 100 historical ground motions, incremental dynamic analysis of 60 different inelastic single-degree-of-freedom (SDF) oscillators with varying periods and ductility capacities were analysed, and collapse risk estimates obtained. Linear regression models are used to comparatively quantify the sufficiency of $Sa_{avg}$ and $Sa(T_1)$ using four significant duration metrics. Results suggests that an improved sufficiency may exist for $Sa_{avg}$ when the period of the SDF system increases, particularly beyond 0.5, as compare to $Sa(T_1)$. In reference to the ground motion duration measures, results indicated that the sufficiency of $Sa_{avg}$ is more sensitive to significant duration definitions that consider almost the full wave train of an accelerogram ($SD_{a5-95}$ and $SD_{v5-95}$). In order to obtain a reduced variability of the collapse risk estimate, the 5-95% significant duration metric defined using the Arias integral ($SD_{a5-95}$) should be used for seismic collapse risk estimation in conjunction with $Sa_{avg}$.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.73-82
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• 2011

Basel II advanced measurement approaches for operational risk need to estimate the frequency and severity distribution of operational losses. Due to lack of internal loss data, the estimation is impossible in many cases and so external loss data might be used by scaling on asset or gross income. To get around lack of loss data, scenario analysis combined with loss distribution approach can be useful in calculating the capital charge of operational risk. However, scenario based loss distribution approach requires much time and effort. Instead we may apply the analytic hierarchy process to measure operational risk of financial institutions. The analytic hierarchy process combined with loss distribution approach is to estimate the capital charge of operational risk in other areas based on the operational VaR in an area with sufficient loss data. AHP provides a tool for timely measurement of operational risk in this rapidly changing global environment.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.73-79
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• 1999

Most of mechanical structures are combined of substructures such as beams and/or plates. There are few systems with unibody structures but are many systems with united body structures. Generally the dynamic a nalysis of whole structures is performed under alternation load. In the structure design, the analysis of each bolted joint is more important than others for zero severity. This paper presents the analysis method of contact stress distribution factor in the bolted joint with variable fastening torque on joints in the structure. At first, a static vibration test was performed to find out a nominal stress of bolt jointed plates from the relationship between natural frequency and nominal stress. Then a contact stress was computed at contact point between bolt and plate in the structure. It is believed that the proposed method has promisiong implications for safer design with index of contact stress distribution factor and has merits for cost-down and saving time at the beginning of vehicle development.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.865-868
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• 2006

In this paper, a dynamic behavior(natural frequency) of a cracked simply supported pipe conveying fluid is presented. In addition, an analysis of the flutter and buckling instability of a cracked pipe conveying fluid due to the coupled mode (modes combined) is presented. Based on the Euler-Bernouli beam theory, the equation of motion can be constructed by using the Lagrange's equation. The crack section is represented by a local flexibility matrix connecting two undamaged beam segments. The stiffness of the spring depends on the crack severity and the geometry of the cracked section. The crack is assumed to be in the first mode of fracture and to be always opened during the vibrations. This study will contribute to the safety test and stability estimation of structures of a cracked pipe conveying fluid.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.49-55
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• 2010

In this paper, the stability of cracked cantilever T-beams subjected to subtangential follower force is investigated. Also, the effect of subtangential coefficient and crack on the natural frequency of T-beams is presented. Based on the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory, the equation of motion is derived by the energy expressions using extended Hamilton's Principle. The crack is assumed to be in the first mode of fracture and to be always opened during the vibrations. The values of critical follower force and the stability maps of cantilever T-beams are obtained according to the subtangential coefficient and crack severity. The results of this study will contribute to the safety testing and the stability estimation of cracked T-beams subjected to follower force.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.53 no.6
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• pp.165-170
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• 2011

Recently natural disasters such as the frequency and intensity of drought have been increasing as a result of climate change. This study suggests a drought index, WADI (Water Availability Drought Index), that considers water availability using 6 components (water intake, groundwater level, agricultural reservoir water level, dam inflow, streamflow, and precipitation) using the Z score and data monitoring on a nationwide level. SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) was applied in coastal area. For the severe droughts of 2001 spring and 2008 autumn, the index was evaluated by comparison with reported damage areas. suggested to combine The spatial concordance rate of WADI in 2001 and 2008 for estimation of the degree of drought severity was 50 % and 24 % compared to the actual recorded data respectively.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers Conference
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• 1998.03a
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• pp.298-303
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• 1998

Most of mechanical structures are combined of substructures such as beam and/or plates. There are few system with unibody structures but are not a few systems with united body structures. Generally the dynamic analysis of whole structures is perform ed under alternating load. However, the analysis of each joint area is more important than others for zero severity. This paper presents the results of analysis of concentration stress in bolt jointed structure with variable preload. At frist, a static vibration test was performed to find out a nominal stress of bolt joint ed plates from the relationship between natural frequency and nominal stress. Then a concentration stress was computed at contact point between bolt and plate in the structure. It is believed that the proposed method has promising implications for safer design with fatigue quality index of stress concentration factor and has merit for cost down and saving time at the beginning of vehicle development.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 2001.11a
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• pp.494-497
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• 2001

Identification of damage of structures has recently received considerable attention in the light of maintenance and safety assessment. In this respect, the vibration characteristics of buildings have been applied steadily to obtain a damage index of the whole building, but it cannot be established as a practical method until now. A practical method for the estimation of structural damage using the first natural frequency and mode shape of building is proposed in this paper. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical and experimental tests. From the results, it is observed that severity and location of damage can be estimated with a relatively small error by using modal properties of building.