• Title/Summary/Keyword: service life prediction

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Rating and Lifetime Prediction of a Bridge with Maintenance (유지관리보수가 된 교량의 내하력평가 및 잔존수명 예측)

  • Seung-Ie Yang;Han-Jung Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.108-115
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    • 2003
  • Bridges are rated at two levels by either Load Factor Design (LFD) or Allowable Stress Design (ASD). The lower level rating is called Inventory Rating and the upper level rating is called Operating Rating. To maintain bridges effectively, there is an urgent need to assess actual bridge loading carrying capacity and to predict their remaining life from a system reliability viewpoint. The lifetime functions are introduced and explained to predict the time-dependent failure probability. The bridge studied in this paper was built 30 years ago in rural area. For this bridge, the load test and rehabilitation were conducted. The time-dependent system failure probability is predicted with or without rehabilitation. As a case study, an optional rehabilitation is suggested, and fir this rehabilitation, load rating is computed and the time-dependent system failure probability is predicted. Based on rehabilitation costs and extended service lifes, the optimal rehabilitation is suggested.

Long-Term Thermal Conductivity Prediction of Polyurethane Foam Applying Precision Mass Spectrometer for Cell Gas Analysis (정밀질량분석기를 활용한 우레탄폼의 장기열전도도 예측을 위한 분석기법)

  • Kim, Jin-Seok;Chun, Jong-Han;Lee, Jin-Bok;Lee, Hyo-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.22 no.10
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    • pp.679-686
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    • 2010
  • A proprietary device is adopted to break out the membrane of cell in the rigid polyurethane foam. As it is known, the membrane of cell is hardly tearing-off thoroughly in a mechanical way due to both its elastic characteristic and micro sized pores. In this study, a novel experimental approach is introduced to burst out all gases inside the cells of the rigid polyurethane foam by abrasively grinding micro-cells completely into fine powder. The biggest advantage of this approach is to be capable of releasing all gases out from the cell even in the micro pores. As clearly reflected from the repeatability, the accuracy of the result is highly improved and high confidence in the data sets as well. For the measurements of not only gas composition but partial pressure for each gas simultaneously as well, a precision gas mass spectrometer is used in-line directly to the abrasive grinding device. To control the starting point of the polyurethane foam, all samples were prepared on site in the laboratory. Manufactured time is one of the most critical factors in characterization of cell gas composition because it is known that one of gas composition, especially, carbon dioxide, is diffused out dramatically in a short period of time as soon as it is foamed.

Development of a 3D Model-Based Demonstration DB System for Efficient Management and Utilization of Inspection and Diagnosis Data of Small and Medium-Sized Bridges (중소규모 교량의 점검·진단 데이터 효율적 관리 및 활용을 위한 3D 모델 기반 실증 DB시스템 개발)

  • Park, Se-Hyun;Jung, Dae-Sung;Seo, Jin-Sook;Kim, Tae-Hyeong
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2021
  • As the aging of large domestic SOC facilities accelerates, facility maintenance is also changing from safety evaluation based on the current condition to performance-oriented preventive and preemptive maintenance based on the prediction of the level of future obsolescence. In particular, in the case of bridges, class 1 and 2 bridges are systematically managed along with many studies, but for small and medium-sized class 3 bridges there is no collection and utilization of historical data presenting performance degradation during their service life. Therefore, in this study, 3D model-based demonstration DB system was designed and developed to intuitively check the damage change rate at the damage location by registering the maintenance history by life cycle for each member's exterior damage in the 3D bridge object and to enable API-based comprehensive performance evaluation.

Prediction of Blooming Dates of Spring Flowers by Using Digital Temperature Forecasts and Phenology Models (동네예보와 생물계절모형을 이용한 봄꽃개화일 예측)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Lee, Eun-Jung;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.40-49
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    • 2013
  • Current service system of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for blooming date forecasting in spring depends on regression equations derived from long term observations in both temperature and phenology at a given station. This regression based system does not allow a timely correction or update of forecasts that are highly sensitive to fluctuating weather conditions. Furthermore, the system cannot afford plant responses to climate extremes which were not observed before. Most of all, this method may not be applicable to locations other than that which the regression equations were derived from. This note suggests a way to replace the location restricted regression equations with a thermal time based phenology model to complement the KMA blooming forecast system. Necessary parameters such as reference temperature, chilling requirement and heating requirement were derived from phenology data for forsythia, azaleas and Japanese cherry at 29 KMA stations for the 1951-1980 period to optimize spring phenology prediction model for each species. Best fit models for each species were used to predict blooming dates and the results were compared with the observed dates to produce a correction grid across the whole nation. The models were driven by the KMA's daily temperature data at a 5km grid spacing and subsequently adjusted by the correction grid to produce the blooming date maps. Validation with the 1971-2012 period data showed the RMSE of 2-3 days for Japanese cherry, showing a feasibility of operational service; whereas higher RMSE values were observed with forsythia and azaleas.

Bridge Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Preventive Maintenance (예방적 유지관리를 통한 교량의 생애주기비용 절감 효과 분석)

  • Jeong, Yo-Seok;Kim, Woo-Seok;Lee, Il-Keun;Lee, Jae-Ha
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2016
  • The paper aims at evaluating effects of preventive maintenance on life cycle cost(LCC) reduction of bridges. The preventive maintenance activities capable to delay bridge deteriorations can reduce overall maintenance costs and extend service life of a bridge by regularly providing maintenance activities and avoiding larger maintenance(repairs or rehabilitations) costs. Couple of prediction models were proposed in order to calculate LCC of a typical bridge: a health score model and repair rehabilitation cost model. In addition, the maintenance activities such as wash and painting were also suggested in order to consider effects of preventive maintenance in the analysis based on literature reviews. According to analysis results, new maintenance strategy(reactive maintenance + preventive maintenance) can save \0.5 billion per bridge for future life-cycle costs over 100 year analysis or \184 billion for entire HBMS(Highway Bridge Management System) inventory over 20 years. Small investments for preventive maintenance in improved bridge management can have a very significant return when considering the large bridge inventory.

A Probabilistic Prediction of Weapon Systems Evaluation Test Execution Ratio and Management Scheme (무기체계 평가시험 수행율의 확률적 예측 및 관리기법)

  • Jang, Young-sik;Han, Sung-hee;Han, Hyun-goo;Mun, Chang-min
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.468-474
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    • 2017
  • A test service for the weapon systems evaluation is one of the most important processes during the weapon systems acquisition or development life cycle. Before completion of weapon systems development, the appropriate evaluation test can reduce risk and expense which might be expected during weapon systems development procedure. In this paper, it is suggested that a probabilistic prediction method based on Monte Carlo simulation for how much the annual weapon systems evaluation test excution ratio can be reached compared to the yearly initial planned test quantity. And then a weapon systems evaluation test quantitative management scheme is suggested to assist decision making for the test schedule manager who can arrange monthly test schedule based on the prediction result of annual test excution ratio. And the proposed method is applied for the weapon systems evaluation firing test data of the 8th directorate, Agency for Defense Development(ADD). And also the application result is examined.

Machine Learning Prediction of Economic Effects of Busan's Strategic Industry through Ridge Regression and Lasso Regression (릿지 회귀와 라쏘 회귀 모형에 의한 부산 전략산업의 지역경제 효과에 대한 머신러닝 예측)

  • Yi, Chae-Deug
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.197-215
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    • 2021
  • This paper analyzes the machine learning predictions of the economic effects of Busan's strategic industries on the employment and income using the Ridge Regression and Lasso Regression models with regulation terms. According to the Ridge estimation and Lasso estimation models of employment, the intelligence information service industry such as the service platform, contents, and smart finance industries and the global tourism industry such as MICE and specialized tourism are predicted to influence on the employment in order. However, the Ridge and Lasso regression model show that the future transportation machine industry does not significantly increase the employment and income since it is the primitive investment industry. The Ridge estimation models of the income show that the intelligence information service industry and global tourism industry are also predicted to influence on the income in order. According to the Lasso estimation models of income, four strategic industries such as the life care, smart maritime, the intelligence machine, and clean tech industry do not influence the income. Furthermore, the future transportation machine industry may influence the income negatively since it is the primitive investment industry. Thus, we have to select the appropriate economic objectives and priorities of industrial policies.

Mesoscale simulation of chloride diffusion in concrete considering the binding capacity and concentration dependence

  • Wang, Licheng;Ueda, Tamon
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.125-142
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    • 2011
  • In the present paper, a numerical simulation method based on mesoscopic composite structure of concrete, the truss network model, is developed to evaluate the diffusivity of concrete in order to account for the microstructure of concrete, the binding effect of chloride ions and the chloride concentration dependence. In the model, concrete is described as a three-phase composite, consisting of mortar, coarse aggregates and the interfacial transition zones (ITZs) between them. The advantage of the current model is that it can easily represent the movement of mass (e.g. water or chloride ions) through ITZs or the potential cracks within concrete. An analytical method to estimate the chloride diffusivity of mortar and ITZ, which are both treated as homogenious materials in the model, is introduced in terms of water-to-cement ratio (w/c) and sand volume fraction. Using the newly developed approaches, the effect of cracking of concrete on chloride diffusion is reflected by means of the similar process as that in the test. The results of calculation give close match with experimental observations. Furthermore, with consideration of the binding capacity of chloride ions to cement paste and the concentration dependence for diffusivity, the one-dimensional nonlinear diffusion equation is established, as well as its finite difference form in terms of the truss network model. A series of numerical analysises performed on the model find that the chloride diffusion is substantially influenced by the binding capacity and concentration dependence, which is same as that revealed in some experimental investigations. This indicates the necessity to take into account the binding capacity and chloride concentration dependence in the durability analysis and service life prediction of concrete structures.

Initiation and Growth Behavior of Small Fatigue Cracks in the Degraded 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo Steel (2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo강 劣化材의 微小 疲勞龜裂의 발생 및 진전거동)

  • 곽상국;장재영;권재도;최선호;장순식
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.53-62
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    • 1992
  • Material can be degraded by using it for a long service under the high temperature and pressure circumstances, Therefore, material degradation can affect the strength of mechanical structures. At present, the life prediction of the degraded structures is considered as an important technical problem. In this paper, the degraded 21/4Cr-lMo steel is the material used for about 10 years around 400.deg. C in an oil refinery plant. The recovered one was prepared out of the above degraded steel by heat treatment for one hour at 650.deg. C. The degradation effect was investigated through the tension test, Hardness test and Charpy impact test. On the smooth surface material, the fatigue crack initiation, growth and coalescence stages of the distributed small cracks were investigated with photographs, and the crack length and density were measured. The measuring results were analyzed by quantative and statistical methods.

Evaluation of Permanent Deformation Characteristics in Crushed Subbase Materials Using Shear Stress Ratio and Large Repeated Triaxial Compression Test (대형반복삼축시험과 전단응력비 개념을 이용한 쇄석 보조기층의 영구변형 특성평가)

  • Lim, Yu-Jin;Kim, In-Tae;Kwak, Ki-Heon
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2011
  • It is well-known that pavement is easily damaged by several factors including permanent deformation and fatigue crack, causing service life of the pavement to be shorter than expected. It is very important to predict amount of permanent deformation for designing pavement and developing design method of pavement. A new model of permanent deformation of pavement materials based on concept of shear stress ratio has been proposed because the lower pavement materials are highly affected by shear strength of the material. In this study a large repetitive triaxial load test has been adapted for performing test of permanent deformation of crushed subbase materials. The test procedure which includes concept of shear stress ratio has been newly developed. Several important model parameters can be obtained from the test that can be used for making correct permanent deformation model of the material.