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http://dx.doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2013.15.1.040

Prediction of Blooming Dates of Spring Flowers by Using Digital Temperature Forecasts and Phenology Models  

Kim, Jin-Hee (National Center for Agro-Meteorology, Seoul National University)
Lee, Eun-Jung (Korean Peninsula Weather and Climate Division, KMA)
Yun, Jin I. (College of Life Sciences, Kyung Hee University)
Publication Information
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology / v.15, no.1, 2013 , pp. 40-49 More about this Journal
Abstract
Current service system of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for blooming date forecasting in spring depends on regression equations derived from long term observations in both temperature and phenology at a given station. This regression based system does not allow a timely correction or update of forecasts that are highly sensitive to fluctuating weather conditions. Furthermore, the system cannot afford plant responses to climate extremes which were not observed before. Most of all, this method may not be applicable to locations other than that which the regression equations were derived from. This note suggests a way to replace the location restricted regression equations with a thermal time based phenology model to complement the KMA blooming forecast system. Necessary parameters such as reference temperature, chilling requirement and heating requirement were derived from phenology data for forsythia, azaleas and Japanese cherry at 29 KMA stations for the 1951-1980 period to optimize spring phenology prediction model for each species. Best fit models for each species were used to predict blooming dates and the results were compared with the observed dates to produce a correction grid across the whole nation. The models were driven by the KMA's daily temperature data at a 5km grid spacing and subsequently adjusted by the correction grid to produce the blooming date maps. Validation with the 1971-2012 period data showed the RMSE of 2-3 days for Japanese cherry, showing a feasibility of operational service; whereas higher RMSE values were observed with forsythia and azaleas.
Keywords
Blooming date forecast; Spring phenology; Azaleas; Forsythia; Cherry blossom;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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