• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.65-75
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• 2016

The purpose of this study was to analyze the production and marketing control effects of aqua-cultured flounder required for stable income growth of aqua-cultured household. We analyzed the supply and demand structure of cultured flounder using the partial equilibrium model approach. And we estimated the optimal yield of cultured flounder and analyzed the effect of marketing control through constructed model. The main results of this study are summarized as follows. First, the fitness and predictive power of the estimated model showed that the RMSPE and MAPE values were less than 5% and Theil's inequality coefficient was very close to 0 rather than 1. It was evaluated that the prediction ability of the aqua-cultured flounder supply and demand model by dynamic simulation was excellent. Second, dynamic simulation based on policy simulation was conducted to analyze the price increase effect of production and shipment control of cultured flounder. As a result, if the annual production volume is reduced by 1%, 5%, and 10% among 32,852~37,520 tons, it is analyzed that the price increase effect is from 1.2% to 12.5%. Finally, this study suggests that the production and marketing control can increase the price of aqua-cultured flounder in the market. In this paper, we propose a policy implementation of the total supply system instead of conclusions.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.1053-1061
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• 2013

In this paper, we propose the time series forecasting models for internet traffic with long memory and heteroscedasticity. To control and forecast traffic volume, we first introduce the traffic forecasting models which are determined by the volatility and heteroscedasticity of the traffic. We then analyze and predict the heteroscedasticity and the long memory properties for forecasting traffic volume. Depending on the characteristics of the traffic, Fractional ARIMA model, Fractional ARIMA-GARCH model are applied and compared with the MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error) Criterion.

• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.59-65
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• 2021

Electricity contributes to the development of the economy. Therefore, forecasting electricity demand plays an important role in the development of the electricity industry in particular and the economy in general. This study aims to provide a precise model for long-term electricity demand forecast in the residential sector by using three independent variables include: Population, Electricity price, Average annual income per capita; and the dependent variable is yearly electricity consumption. Based on the support of Multiple variable regression, the proposed method established a model with variables that relate to the forecast by ignoring variables that do not affect lead to forecasting errors. The proposed forecasting model was validated using historical data from Vietnam in the period 2013 and 2020. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, we presents a five-year demand forecast for the residential sector in Vietnam. When demand forecasts are performed using the predicted variables, the R square value measures model fit is up to 99.6% and overall accuracy (MAPE) of around 0.92% is obtained over the period 2018-2020. The proposed model indicates the population's impact on total national electricity demand.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.53 no.6
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• pp.139-147
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• 2020

The sunspot area is a critical physical quantity for assessing the solar activity level; forecasts of the sunspot area are of great importance for studies of the solar activity and space weather. We developed an innovative hybrid model prediction method by integrating the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and extreme learning machine (ELM). The time series is first decomposed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with different frequencies by CEEMD; these IMFs can be divided into three groups, a high-frequency group, a low-frequency group, and a trend group. The ELM forecasting models are established to forecast the three groups separately. The final forecast results are obtained by summing up the forecast values of each group. The proposed hybrid model is applied to the smoothed monthly mean sunspot area archived at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). We find a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.80% and 9.75, respectively, which indicates that: (1) for the CEEMD-ELM model, the predicted sunspot area is in good agreement with the observed one; (2) the proposed model outperforms previous approaches in terms of prediction accuracy and operational efficiency.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.323-331
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• 2021

With global warming and pollution problems, accurate forecasting of the harmful gases would be an essential alarm in our life. In this paper, we forecast the emission of the five gases(SOx, NO₂, NH₃, H₂S, CH₄) using the time series model of ARIMA, the learning algorithms of Random forest, and LSTM. We find that the gas emission data depends on the short-term memory and behaves like a random walk. As a result, we compare the RMSE, MAE, and MAPE as the measure of the prediction performance under the same conditions given to three models. We find that ARIMA forecasts the gas emissions more precisely than the other two learning-based methods. Besides, the ARIMA model is more suitable for the real-time forecasts of gas emissions because it is faster for modeling than the two learning algorithms.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.220-228
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• 2022

The directed tests produce an expectation model to assist the organization's heads and professionals with settling on the right and speedy choice. A directed deep learning strategy has been embraced and applied for SCADA information. In this paper, for the load shedding expectation overall power organization of Libya, a convolutional neural network with multi neurons is utilized. For contributions of the neural organization, eight convolutional layers are utilized. These boundaries are power age, temperature, stickiness and wind speed. The gathered information from the SCADA data set were pre-handled to be ready in a reasonable arrangement to be taken care of to the deep learning. A bunch of analyses has been directed on this information to get a forecast model. The created model was assessed as far as precision and decrease of misfortune. It tends to be presumed that the acquired outcomes are promising and empowering. For assessment of the outcomes four boundary, MSE, RMSE, MAPE and R2 are determined. The best R2 esteem is gotten for 1-overlap and it was 0.98.34 for train information and for test information is acquired 0.96. Additionally for train information the RMSE esteem in 1-overlap is superior to different Folds and this worth was 0.018.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.22 no.10
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• pp.177-182
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• 2022

Technology is progressing with every passing day and the enormous usage of electricity is becoming a necessity. One of the techniques to enjoy the assistances in a smart home is the efficiency to manage the electric energy. When electric energy is managed in an appropriate way, it drastically saves sufficient power even to be spent during hard time as when hit by natural calamities. To accomplish this, prediction of energy consumption plays a very important role. This proposed prediction model Coherent Weighted K-Means Clustering ARIMA (CWKMCA) enhances the weighted k-means clustering technique by adding weights to the cluster points. Forecasting is done using the ARIMA model based on the centroid of the clusters produced. The dataset for this proposed work is taken from the Pecan Project in Texas, USA. The level of accuracy of this model is compared with the traditional ARIMA model and the Weighted K-Means Clustering ARIMA Model. When predicting,errors such as RMSE, MAPE, AIC and AICC are analysed, the results of this suggested work reveal lower values than the ARIMA and Weighted K-Means Clustering ARIMA models. This model also has a greater loglikelihood, demonstrating that this model outperforms the ARIMA model for time series forecasting.

• Advances in Energy Research
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.111-123
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• 2022

Solar Energy is the energy of solar radiation carried by them in the form of heat and light. It can be converted into electricity. Solar potential depends on the site's atmosphere; the solar energy distribution depends on many factors, e.g., turbidity, cloud types, pollution levels, solar altitude, etc. We estimated solar radiation with the help of the Ashrae clear-sky model for three locations in Pakistan, namely Pasni, Gwadar, and Jiwani. As these locations are close to each other as compared to the distance between the sun and earth, therefore a slight change of latitude and longitude does not make any difference in the calculation of direct beam solar radiation (BSR), diffuse solar radiation (DSR), and global solar radiation (GSR). A modified formula for declination angle is also developed and presented. We also created two different models for Ashrae constants. The values of these constants are compared with the standard Ashrae Model. A good agreement is observed when we used these constants to calculate BSR, DSR, GSR, the Root mean square error (RMSE), Mean Absolute error (MABE), Mean Absolute percent error (MAPE), and chisquare (χ²) values are in acceptance range, indicating the validity of the models.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.1-13
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• 2023

Demand forecasting is a crucial task for an online retail where has to manage daily fresh foods effectively. Failing in forecasting results loss of profitability because of incompetent inventory management. This study investigated the optimal performance of different forecasting models for a very short shelf-life product. Demand data of 13 perishable items with aging of 210 days were used for analysis. Our comparison results of four methods: Trivial Identity, Seasonal Naïve, Feed-Forward and Autoregressive Recurrent Neural Networks (DeepAR) reveals that DeepAR outperforms with the lowest MAPE. This study also suggests the managerial implications by employing coefficient of variation (CV) as demand variation indicators. Three classes: Low, Medium and High variation are introduced for classify 13 products into groups. Our analysis found that DeepAR is suitable for medium and high variations, while the low group can use any methods. With this approach, the case can gain benefit of better fill-rate performance.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.45-56
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• 2024

The weakening effect of water on rocks is one of the main factors inducing deformation and failure in rock engineering. To clarify this weakening effect, immersion tests and post-immersion triaxial compression tests were conducted on sandstone and mudstone. The results showed that the strength of water-immersed sandstone decreases with increasing immersion time, exhibiting an exponential relationship. Similarly, the strength of water-immersed mudstone decreases with increasing environmental humidity, also following an exponential relationship. Subsequently, a statistical damage model for water-weakened rocks was proposed, changes in elastic modulus to describe the weakening effect of water. The model effectively simulated the stress-strain relationships of water-affected sandstone and mudstone under compression. The R² values between the theoretical and experimental peak values ranged from 0.962 to 0.996, and the MAPE values fell between 3.589% and 9.166%, demonstrating the model's effectiveness and reliability. The damage process of water-saturated rocks corresponds to five stages: compaction stage - no damage, elastic stage - minor damage, crack development stage - rapid damage increase, post-peak residual stage - continuous damage increase, and sliding stage - damage completion. This study provides a foundational reference for researching the fracture characteristics of overlying strata during coal mining under complex hydrogeological conditions.