• Title/Summary/Keyword: risky decision

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Study of Risky Driving Decision Device using DGPS/RTK (DGPS/RTK를 이용한 위험운전 판단장치 성능검증에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, JuTaek;Lee, SangYong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.3D
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    • pp.303-311
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    • 2010
  • There have been various forms of systems such as a digital speedometer or a black box etc. to meet the social requirement for reducing traffic accidents and safe driving. However that systems are based on after-accident vehicle data, there is limit to prevent the accident before. So in our previous research, by storing, analyzing the Vehicle-dynamic information coming from driver's behavior, we are developing the decision-device which could provide driver with Alerting-Information in real-time to enhance the driver's safety drive. but the performance valuation is not yet executed. Finally, this study developed positional recognition system by using the DGPS for pre-developed risky driving decision device. The result of test analyzed with the same that the aggregated vehicle dynamics data in DGPS and dangerous risky driving decision device. If the performance of risky driving decision device is verified by precisely positional recognition system, the risky driving management of vehicle would be effected.

EVALUATION OF SAMG EFFECTIVENESS IN VIEW OF GROUP DECISION

  • Huh, Chang-Wook;Suh, Nam-Duk;Park, Goon-Cherl
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.653-662
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    • 2012
  • We evaluate the technical and organizational aspects of the severe accident management guideline (SAMG), focusing on the decision-making process in the technical support center (TSC). From the technical aspects, we conclude that the present SAMG is a good tool that can assist the TSC in efficiently managing probable severe accidents. However, we suggest that the clear separation of the emergency operating procedure (EOP) and SAMG, which shifts plant control from the main control room (MCR) to the TSC, might not be an effective framework from an organizational perspective. Studies on organizational behavior demonstrate that a group decision made under a risky situation might be polarized in either a risky or cautious way. We recognize that we cannot be free from the polarization effect since the current SAMG recommends that the TSC evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of strategies to be implemented and choose the best one based on a group decision process. Illustrative examples of accident management under risky conditions are recapitulated from previous studies of the authors and we propose that the SAMG should be more proceduralized to remove this polarization from the decision-making process.

Development on Fuzzy-AHP Ranking Risk Assessment Model for the monitoring systems (관제시스템 구축을 위한 Fuzzy-AHP 위험 순위 평가 모델 개발)

  • Chung, Sung-Hak;Park, Tae-Joon
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2011
  • The objective of this study is to develop an evaluation model for the National highway risky areas. Thus, for the purposes of doing this, National highway risky area evaluated targeting to provide determination ranking and suggesting rival-superiority factors as well as under-inferiority factors in ten National highway risky areas. This study developed for modules of risky areas evaluation, using fuzzy set theory and analytic hierarchy process for evaluation model of National highway risky area in transport environment. The preceding studies assess risk analysis through analysis of causal relationships by National highway safety sector not only handles rating scale development suitable for assessment area by referring to accident frequency model but also geometric structures model. As result of this study, this model of Fuzzy Ahp Risk Analysis (FARA) apply for programmable design in real time processing through easily derive strategy for improvement activities to provide a decision-making effectively. Furthermore, this study contributes frame for improvements of National highway construction for renovation's priority strategy as well as future's policy schemes.

Why Do Mobile Device Users Take a Risky Behavior?: Focusing on Model of the Determinants of Risk Behavior (모바일 기기 사용자는 왜 정보보호에 위험한 행동을 하는가? : 위험행동 결정요인 모델을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jongki;Kim, Jiyun
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.129-152
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    • 2019
  • Purpose The purpose of this study is to empirically identify the risky behavior of mobile device users using the Internet of Things on a situational perspective. Design/methodology/approach This study made a design of the research model based on model of the determinants of risk behavior. Data were collected through a survey including hypothetical scenario. SmartPLS 2.0 was used for the structural model analysis and t-test was conducted to compare the between normal and situational behavior. Findings The results were as follows. First, the central roles of risk propriety and risk perception were verified empirically. Second, we identified the role of locus of control as a new factor of impact on risky behavior. Third, mobile risk propensity has been shown to increase risk perception. Fouth, it has been shown that risk perception does not directly affect risky behavior and reduce the relationship between mobile risk propensity and risk behavior. According to the empirical analysis result, Determinants of risk behavior for mobile users were identified based on a theoretical framework. And it raised the need to pay attention to the impact of locus of control on risk behavior in the IS security field. It provided direction to the approach to risky behavior of mobile device users. In addition, this study confirmed that there was a possibility of taking risky behavior in the actual decision-making.

Determination of Risk Level Using Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Method (퍼지 다기준 의사결정기법을 이용한 위험수준평가)

  • Jung, Sang-Yun;Cho, Sung-Ku
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.627-638
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    • 1998
  • For any hazardous operation or risky project to be carried out safely and economically, it is of the utmost importance to formulate proper risk management policies based on the rational assessment of the risk levels of various potential hazards. In this paper, a Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making(FMCDM) method for risk assessment is proposed. The method evaluates, on the basis of fuzzy set theory, the risk level of a risky situation by aggregating the assessed levels of risk factors and their subjective weights. The method also allows some flexibility for the future users in the sense that, first, the relative importance weights for the three risk factors can be adjusted according to the nature of projects or systems and, second, the users have the choice between the two types of risk assessment results, that is, the assessed risk levels or the ranks of the risk situations. A numerical example for the proposed FMCDM method is provided to illustrate the computational procedure. To see how the suggested FMCDM method describes well people's perceived risk level, we compared the risk values derived from the suggested method with the subjective risk evaluations for ten risky situations.

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Identification of Risky Subgroups with Sleep Problems Among Adult Cancer Survivors Using Decision-tree Analyses: Based on the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2013 to 2016 (의사결정나무 분석을 이용한 성인 암경험자의 문제수면 위험군 예측: 2013-2016년도 국민건강영양조사 자료 분석)

  • Kim, Hee Sun;Jeong, Seok Hee;Park, Sook Kyoung
    • Journal of Korean Biological Nursing Science
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.103-113
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: This study was performed to assess problems associated with sleep (short and long sleep duration) and to identify risky subgroups with sleep problems among adult cancer survivors. The study is based on the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES VI and VII) from 2013 to 2016. Methods: The sociodemographic and clinical data of 504 Korean cancer survivors aged 20-64 years was extracted from the KNHANES VI and VII database. Descriptive statistics for complex samples was used, and decision-tree analyses were performed using the SPSS WIN 24.0 program. Results: The mean age for survivors was approximately 51 years. The mean sleep duration was 6.97 hours; 36.2% of participants had short (< 7 hours) and 9.9% had long (> 8 hours) sleep duration. From the decision-trees analyses, the characteristics of the adult cancer survivors related to sleep problems were presented with six different pathways. Sleep problems were analyzed according to the survivors' sociodemographic information (age, education, living status, and occupation), clinical characteristics (body mass index, hypercholesterolemia, and anemia) and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). The HRQoL (${\leq}0.5$ or > 0.5 cutoff point) was a significant predictor of the participants' sleep problems because all six pathways were started from this predictor in the model. Conclusion: Health care professionals could use the decision-tree model for screening adult cancer survivors with sleep problems in clinical or community settings. Nursing interventions considering these specific individual characteristics and HRQoL level should be developed to have adequate sleep duration for Korean adult cancer survivors.

A Financial Theory of the Demand for Insurance With Simultaneous Investment Opportunities (투자(投資)와 보험수요(保險需要)의 상관관계(相關關係)에 관한 재무경제학적(財務經濟學的) 연구(硏究))

  • Witt, Robert C.;Hong, Soon-Koo
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.223-262
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    • 1992
  • This paper develops a theory of the demand for insurance. The present model incorporates insurance demand time value of insurance premium, and demand for listless and risky assets simultaneously within the expected utility framework. For a special case of CARA, an insurance decision can be made separately from other portfolio decisions. However, in general, the interactions of both decisions cannot be ignored even when insurable and speculative risks are stochastically independent. In particular, the role of risky investment in hedging insurable risk is demonstrated and it is shown that this role cannot be duplicated by an insurance contract. When the investment decision is made simultaneously with the insurance decision, some of the classic theory on insurance should be modified. As an example, the authors characterize the sufficient conditions, under which the Bernoulli criteria (without and with premium loadings) hold or are violated in terms of the net gain of risky investment, the net cost of insurance, and the stochastic relationship between insurable and speculative risks. The authors interpret the results using the Rothschild and Stiglitz's (1970) notion of 'increase in riskiness'.

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Effective R&D investment strategy using real options (실물 옵션 이론을 활용한 효과적인 R&D 투자 전략)

  • ;Wonsoon Hong
    • Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.117-130
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    • 2001
  • R&D is the core competence of an enterprise. Furthermore, R&D requires huge capital investment and has very risky characteristics. Therefore, to be successful in R&D process, several approaches of engineering economics are used prior to decision-making. Until now, typical approaches of engineering economics such as NPV(net present value) or DCF(Discounted cash flow) have been used. But, they cannot properly capture managerial flexibility to adapt and revise later decisions in response to unexpected market development. In a constantly changing and always uncertain marketplace, managerial operation flexibility and strategic adaptability have become vital in order to successfully capitalize on favorable future investment opportunities and limit losses from adverse market development. For the alternatives of conventional static decision-making approaches, new concept of using real options is introduced. Real option theory is based on financial option's characteristics and checks every revision interval whether situation have changed favorable to decision maker or not. In advantageous situation, the decision maker has only to go on. In contrast, with unfavorable situation, he abandons the investment immediately. In this aspect, real option model is more suitable in very uncertain and dynamic business environment in that it can provide the opportunity to cope with flexibility. This paper suggests efficient and effective R&D investment strategy by using real options model. In addition, this paper compares financial options and real options.

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A Study on Dilemma Zone Safety Improvement using Drone Videos (드론을 이용한 교차로 딜레마구간 안전개선에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Si-Bok
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.122-131
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    • 2017
  • This study was a drone-utilized case study motivated by that drones can obtain sophisticated video image data previously not feasible. The dilemma zones on selected intersection approaches were identified and locations of drivers' decision making to stop or go at the onset of yellow were determined by analyzing drone video images. The gap between the drivers' decision making location and invisible stop/go border line provided by the yellow time interval was defined as "risky passing zone". To improve the dilemma zone safety problems, re-optimization of yellow time intervals and introduction of new pavement marking that can help drivers decision making on yellow indication are suggested.

The Exploratory Study for the Effect of Good and Bad Luck on Risky Decision: Perspective of Probabilistic Framing Effect (행운과 불운이 모험적 의사결정에 미치는 효과에 대한 탐색적 연구: 확률적 틀 효과의 관점에서)

  • Lee, Byung-Kwan;Lee, Guk-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.279-300
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    • 2015
  • Present research was carried out on the level of exploration to verify that good luck increases probabilistic framing effect but bad luck decrease the effect. And we organized an experiment that designed experience of luck (good luck vs. bad luck vs. control) ${\times}$ probabilistic frame (high vs. low) and observed whether people response based on probabilistic frame or not. As a result, we observed the two-way interaction where experience of good luck increased probabilistic framing effect, while experience of bad luck decreased the effect (Figure 1). We expect to see more studies of contextual framing effect besides probabilistic frame (e.g., positive vs. negative; loss related to context vs. loss irrelevant to context).