• 재무관리연구
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.133-152
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• 2007

손실기피(limited down side risk) 선호를 가진 투자자의 경우 통상적으로 사용하는 위험도의 척도인 분산 혹은 표준편차 대신에 하방 위험성에 더 관심을 가지게 되는데, 이러한 경우 평균-VaR 모형이 평균-분산 모형보다 더 적합한 모형일 수 있다. 이 논문에서는 두 모형을 이용하여 최적자산배분 문제를 실증분석하고 그 결과의 차이를 비교하였다. 수익률의 분포에 정규분포 가정이 아닌 두터운 꼬리(fat tail) 분포 가정을 도입하여 극단적인 위험을 고려한 최적자산배분 문제를 분석을 하였다. 각 이론이나 가정들의 강건성(robustness)을 살펴보기 위하여 역사적 분포를 이용한 분석을 비교 기준으로 하였다. 경험적 혹은 역사적 분포를 이용한 분석을 통해서, 극단적인 위험을 고려하는 손실기피적인 선호체계에서의 최적화 행위는 정규분포의 가정이나 평균-분산 모형이 적절하지 않은 것으로 확인되었다. 일상적인 수준을 능가하는 극단적인 손실 위험성을 고려하기에 적합한 모형은 수익률의 두터운 꼬리를 반영하는 분포 가정에 기초한 평균-VaR 모형인 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국산업보건학회지
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• 제32권3호
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• pp.253-267
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• 2022

Objectives: This study was performed to check whether the CRS (Chemical Ranking and Scoring) system is appropriate as a method to determine substances as candidates for substances subject to permission and to apply this system to the selection of candidates for substances subject to permission. Methods: A risk score was obtained by multiplying the hazard score and the exposure score and then ranking them. The hazard sub-indicators are carcinogenicity, germ cell mutagenicity, reproductive toxicity, specific target organ toxicity-repeated exposure, respiratory sensitization and endocrine disrupting chemicals. Exposure sub-indicators are persistence, bioaccumulation and emission volume. Sensitivity analysis was performed for missing values. Correlation analysis and multivariable linear regression analysis were performed among hazard, exposure and risk in order to confirm that CRS was an appropriate method. Results: As a result of the sensitivity analysis on missing values, it was confirmed that the effect on the risk ranking was not sensitive. Correlation and regression analysis confirmed that exposure had a greater effect on risk than hazard. Conclusions: The CRS system, which derives a risk score using a hazard and exposure score, is judged to be appropriate as a method for the selection of preliminary of candidates for substances subject to permission. Benzene, cadmium, nickel, and cobalt were selected as priority candidates for substances subject to permission.

• 한국항행학회논문지
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• 제18권5호
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• pp.494-500
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• 2014

최근 대량의 개인정보 유출 사고가 잇따라 발생하고 있으며, 외부 해킹과 더불어 내부직원 및 외주업체 직원에 의한 개인정보 유출사고가 증가하고 있다. 이에 따라 기업에서는 내부 보안을 강화하고, 개인정보 처리 업무를 위탁한 수탁사를 대상으로 개인정보의 분실, 도난, 유출 위험을 최소화하기 위해 정기적인 조사 및 점검을 통한 개인정보 감사를 진행하고 있다. 그러나 수탁사의 다양한 업무환경으로 인해 한정된 시간 동안 모든 개인정보 취급 PC를 정밀 조사하는데 어려움이 있다. 따라서 개인정보의 유출 위험성이 높은 고위험군을 식별하여 점검 대상을 효과적으로 선정하는 것이 필요하다. 본 논문에서는 디지털 포렌식 기법을 활용하여 사용자 행위 기반의 고위험군 선정 방안을 제안한다. 또한, 이를 활용하기 위한 도구를 설계 및 구현하였고, 실험 결과를 통해 효과를 입증한다.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.115-128
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• 2013

The optimal portfolio selection problem under inflation risk and subsistence constraints is considered. There are index bonds to invest in financial market and it helps to hedge the inflation risk. By applying the martingale method, the optimal consumption rate and the optimal portfolios are obtained explicitly. Furthermore, the quantitative effect of inflation risk and subsistence constraints on the optimal polices are also described.

• 한국정보통신학회논문지
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.501-509
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• 2011

본 논문은 국가 정보통신(IT)분야 연구개발(R&D)사업에 대한 전략과제를 선정하기 위한 모형을 제시한 것으로 우리나라 정부의 New IT R&D정책인 Smile-curve에 맞는 전략과제 선정을 위해 포트폴리오 모형을 적용하였으며, 포트폴리오 모형 중에서 정부정책의 효과적 반영을 위해 일반적인 R-R(Risk-Return) 포트폴리오 모형을 국가 R&D 체계에 맞게 개발 적용하였다. 또한, R-R 포트폴리오 모형의 평가항목 중 평가항목의 객관성 확보를 위해 TRM(기술로드맵)과 TLS(기술수준조사)자료의 항목을 사용하였으며, AHP(계층화분석)를 통하여 국가전략성, 시장성, 기술성 등 평가항목별 가중치를 설정함으로써 국가 R&D전략과의 연계성을 강화하였다. 또한, 본 모형을 국가 IT R&D 전략과제 선정에 적용한 결과 의미 있는 검증값이 나왔으며, 사업선정단계에서부터 사업의 불확실성을 줄이고 성공률을 높이는 전략과제를 선정하는데 기여하고자 한다.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.279-285
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• 2022

Background; In the event of an industrial accident, the appropriate choice of hospital is important for worker health and prognosis. This study investigates whether the choice of hospital by the employer in the case of industrial accidents affects the prognosis of injured employees. Methods; Data from the 2018 Panel Study of Workers' Compensation Insurance in Korea were used in an unmatched case-controlled study. The exposure variable is "hospital selection by an employer," and the outcome variable is 'worker's disability." Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by modified Poisson regression and adjusted for age, gender, underlying disease, injury severity, and workplace size and stratified by industrial classification. The group at increased risk was analyzed and stratified by age, gender, and area. Results; In the construction industry, hospital selection by the employer was significantly associated with increased risk of disability (adjusted OR 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI]; 1.20-1.32) and severe disability (adjusted OR 1.38; 95% CI; 1.08-1.76) among the injured. Female and younger workers not living in the Seoul capital area were more at risk of disability and severe disability than those living in the Seoul capital area. Conclusions; Hospital selection by employers affects the prognosis of workers injured in an industrial accident. For protecting workers' health and safety, workplace emergency medical systems should be improved, and the selection of appropriate hospitals to supply treatment should be reviewed.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.51-57
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• 2017

The first thing to be prioritized is to set the scope of the management system when establishing an information security management system for systematic and effective information security management. It is important to set the scope for an organization's information security goals due to the scope affects the organization's overall information security activities. If the scope is set incorrectly, it might become impossible to protect important services and therefore, the scope of the management system should be determined in consideration of the core business services of the organization. We propose a core service selection model based on the organization's mission-critical service and high risk service in order to determine the effective information security management system scope in this paper. Core service selection criteria include the type of service, contribution to sales, socio-economic impact, and linkage with other services.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.118-128
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• 2017

Uncertain factors in finical markets make the prediction of future returns and risk of asset much difficult. In this paper, a model,assuming the admissible errors on expected returns and risks of assets, assisted in the multiperiod mean variance portfolio selection problem is built. The model considers transaction costs, upper bound on borrowing risk-free asset constraints, cardinality constraints and threshold constraints. Cardinality constraints limit the number of assets to be held in an efficient portfolio. At the same time, threshold constraints limit the amount of capital to be invested in each stock and prevent very small investments in any stock. Because of these limitations, the proposed model is a mix integer dynamic optimization problem with path dependence. The forward dynamic programming method is designed to obtain the optimal portfolio strategy. Finally, to evaluate the model, our result of a meaning example is compared to the terminal wealth under different constraints.

• 산업기술연구
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• 제22권A호
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• pp.127-135
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• 2002

In this study, the preliminary risk assessment for the underground storage tanks(UST) in Chunchon city was implemented using the geographical information system(GIS). The estimation variables, such as the installation year, storage capacity, the distances from streams, and from groundwater pumping wells, were selected to estimate the relative risk levels. The weighting factors were given to all the estimation variables. Cumulative scores were induced by the combination of all the scores of the corresponding variables using the buffering technique and the overlay analysis in ArcView. Using the these process, the relative risk level of each UST was estimated. Some sites in this study are simplified and reduced because the number of useable data are limited or too enormous. Thus the selection of the comprehensive estimation variables and the proper weighting values are required for the future study. The methodology in this study could be served not only for the preliminary risk assessment of UST but also for the selection of the proper location of new and old UST. And, it can be used for the effective management system of UST.

• Genomics & Informatics
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.138-148
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• 2016

The success of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) has enabled us to improve risk assessment and provide novel genetic variants for diagnosis, prevention, and treatment. However, most variants discovered by GWASs have been reported to have very small effect sizes on complex human diseases, which has been a big hurdle in building risk prediction models. Recently, many statistical approaches based on penalized regression have been developed to solve the "large p and small n" problem. In this report, we evaluated the performance of several statistical methods for predicting a binary trait: stepwise logistic regression (SLR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and Elastic-Net (EN). We first built a prediction model by combining variable selection and prediction methods for type 2 diabetes using Affymetrix Genome-Wide Human SNP Array 5.0 from the Korean Association Resource project. We assessed the risk prediction performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the internal and external validation datasets. In the internal validation, SLR-LASSO and SLR-EN tended to yield more accurate predictions than other combinations. During the external validation, the SLR-SLR and SLR-EN combinations achieved the highest AUC of 0.726. We propose these combinations as a potentially powerful risk prediction model for type 2 diabetes.