• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk ranking method

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Flash Flood Risk Assessment using PROMETHEE and Entropy Method (PROMETHEE와 Entropy 기법을 이용한 돌발홍수 위험도 평가)

  • Lee, Jung-Ho;Jun, Hwan-Don;Park, Moo-Jong;Jung, Jae-Hak
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.151-156
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    • 2011
  • Previously most of flood prevention efforts have been made for relatively large watersheds near to channel flow. However, as economical development and the expansion of leisure areas to mountainous region, human casualty by flash flood occurs frequently, requiring additional prevention activity. Therefore, to reduce the damage of human lives and property by flash flood, we develop an assessment method for flash flood occurrence for mountainous areas considering various factors involving it. PROMETHEE(Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluations) which is one of the MCDM(Multi-Criteria Decision Making) was adopted to assess the contribution of each factor to the risk of the flash flood in the mountainous area. The main evaluation criteria are classified into three categories, namely, the regional and rainfall characteristics, and geographical features. Also, the Entropy method is used to determine the weight of each evaluation criteria without survey. The suggested method based on PROMETHEE with Entropy method is applied to BongHwa region to verify its applicability. After applied, the method successfully assesses the relative risk of flash flood occurrence of each sub region in the BongHwa region. Out of the seventeen sub-regions, five, seven and five of them are evaluated as high-risk, medium-risk, and low-risk, respectively. To verify the results, we searched the historical data of flash flood and the flash flood had occurred in one of high-risk sub-regions at 2008.

An Analysis on Structure of Risk Factor for Maritime Terrorism using FSM and AHP (해상테러 위험요소의 구조와 우선순위 분석)

  • Jang Woon-Jae;Keum Jong-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.343-348
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    • 2004
  • Since the destruction of World Trade Center the attention of the united States and the wider international community has focussed upon the need to strengthen security and prevent terrorism. This paper suggests an analysis prior to risk factor and structure for anti-terrorism in the korean maritime society. For this, in this paper, maritime terror risk factor was extracted by type and case of terror using brainstorming method. Also, risk factor is structured by FSM method and analyzed for ranking of each risk factor by AHP. At the result, the evaluation of risk factor is especially over maximum factor for related external impact.

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An Analysis on Structure of Risk Factor for Maritime Terror using FSM and AHP (해상테러 위험요소의 구조와 우선순위 분석)

  • Jang Woon-Jae;Yang Won-Jae;Keum Jong-Soo
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.29 no.6 s.102
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    • pp.487-493
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    • 2005
  • Since the destruction of World Trade Center the attention of the United States and the wider international community has focussed upon the need to strengthen security and prevent terrorism This paper suggests an analysis prior to risk factor and structure for anti-terrorism in the korean maritime society. For this, in this paper, maritime terror risk factor was extracted by type and case of terror using brainstorming method. Also, risk factor is structured by FSM method and analyzed for ranking of each risk factor by AHP. At the result, the evaluation of risk factor is especially over maximum factor for related external impact.

Analysis of the Schedule Risk using PROMETHEE in Building Construction Management (건설관리에서의 PROMETHEE기반 공정 리스크 분석)

  • Lee, Jang-Young;Yoon, You-Sang;Jang, Myung-Houn;Suh, Sang-Wook
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2010
  • The building construction projects include a variety of risk factors due to uncertainties. To succeed in the projects, it is important how risks are managed. Risk management is composed of identification, analysis and response. Especially, the risk analysis is important to objectively calculate significance of risk factors. This paper evaluates a method to find priorities of risks using the AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process). The method has some defects; (1) the consistency becomes weak as the number of pair-wise compared risks is large, and (2) the input and output procedures are complex when risks are added to or removed from a risk database. Thus the paper adopts the PROMETHEE(Preference Ranking Organization METHod Enrichment Evaluations) analysis process which is able to overcome the limitation of the AHP restricted to 9 risk factors. The PROMETHEE makes the procedure of risk analysis simple, when the risk factors pull out and put in the risk database. The purpose of this study is to provide process of risk analysis to use the PROMETHEE.

Importance Analysis of In-Service Testing Components for Ulchin Unit 3 Using Risk-Informed In-Service Testing Approach

  • Kang, Dae-il;Kim, Kil-yoo;Ha, Jae-joo
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.331-343
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    • 2002
  • We performed an importance analysis of In-Service Testing (157) components for Ulchin Unit 3 using the integrated evaluation method for categorizing component safety significance developed in this study. The developed method is basically aimed at having a PSA expert perform an importance analysis using PSA and its related information. The importance analysis using the developed method is initiated by ranking the component importance using quantitative PSA information. The importance analysis of the IST components not modeled in the PSA is performed through the engineering judgment, based on the expertise of PSA, and the quantitative and qualitative information for the 157 components. The PSA scope for importance analysis includes not only Level 1 and 2 internal PSA but also Level 1 external and shutdown/low power operation PSA. The importance analysis results of valves show that 167 (26.55%) of the 629 IST valves are HSSCs and 462 (73.45%) are LSSCs. Those of pumps also show that 28 (70%)of the 40157 pumps are HSSCs and 12 (30%) are LSSCs.

Sequencing to Minimize the Total Utility Work in Car Assembly Lines (자동차 조립라인에서 총 가외작업을 최소로 하는 투입순서 결정)

  • 현철주
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.69-82
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    • 2003
  • The sequence which minimizes overall utility work in car assembly lines reduces the cycle time, the number of utility workers, and the risk of conveyor stopping. This study suggests mathematical formulation of the sequencing problem to minimize overall utility work, and present a genetic algorithm which can provide a near optimal solution in real time. To apply a genetic algorithm to the sequencing problem in car assembly lines, the representation, selection methods, and genetic parameters are studied. Experiments are carried out to compare selection methods such as roullette wheel selection, tournament selection and ranking selection. Experimental results show that ranking selection method outperforms the others in solution quality, whereas tournament selection provides the best performance in computation time.

A Study on the Weighting of Fire Safety Attributes for Fire Risk Assessment in Historic Buildings - Focused on NakSansa- (역사적 건축물 화재위험성 평가를 위한 화재안전속성의 중요도분석 연구 - 낙산사를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Ji-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.189-196
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    • 2012
  • Fire is one of the greatest threats to historical buildings not only to the building's occupants but also to the building's structure and contents. The purpose of this research is to evaluate fire risk in historical buildings in Korea through a series of survey and review. In this research, a multicriteria decision-making approach involving Analytical Hierarchy Process has been designed to determine a weighted index to identify factors and quantify fire risk. Fire risk ranking systems of historical building has been developed in some applications, for example, BOCA, WISCONSIN, FSES and HFRI. According to the such derived fire risk indexing, the Human Activity index showed the highest risk, followed by Historic Buildings, Fire Safety Systems, and then Natural Environmental Causes. Comparison of these factors indicates that the derived risk values differ from case to case. It is proposed that a performance-based design approach should consider the building & occupant characteristics, locations and historical significance, resulting in a more accurate and effective evaluation of fire risk.

A Study on the Influence Factors for Virtual Enterprise (가상기업의 성과요인에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Kyung-Hye;Choi, Se-Yeon
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.117-135
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    • 2007
  • Globalization changes in market structures and consumer needs, as well as technology innovations force organizations to adopt new structures and collaborative networks to cope with rapidly changing environments. These Collaborative Networks are based on the Idea of virtual enterprise. A virtual enterprise(VE) is a temporary alliance of globally distributed independent enterprises that share core competencies and computer networks. This paper presents a proposal for a methodology to measure a key factor of success and risk First of all, we chose thirty experts' defines on virtual enterprise, fifteen are academic specialist and other fifteen are from industry. For this study we define twenty two factors determining VE's success and seventeen factors determining VE's risk using by Delphi method. And we built the influence model on virtual enterprise. A research model was established according to preceeding research and consensus on experts then the revised model of key factors on virtual enterprise. This survey was based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). AHP is an approach to decision making that involves structuring multiple choice criteria into a hierarchy, the assessing the relative important of these criteria, comparing alternative for each criteria, and determining an overall ranking of the alternatives. A model was constructed as 3 level hierarchy. The hierarches are organizational, strategic, technical criteria. for success model on VE has 22 factors and 17 factors for risk model. They are selected by all 30 experts. 14 copies among 30 copies distributed to carry out on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Consistency ratio confirm high validity and reliability of instrument and support theoretical model. The results of this study are summarized as follows. (1) This study presented success on VE influenced strategic criteria, and essential factor is Creating a value. Risk on VE influenced strategic criteria, and essential factor is Outcome/Distribution. (2) Its enable that ranking the criteria influence on VE. These are supported VE management and using guideline of VE.

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Expression of DOG1, CD117 and PDGFRA in Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors and Correlations with Clinicopathology

  • Sun, Xiu-Wei;Feng, Zhan-Jun;Huang, Peng;Hao, Wang;Sui, Xing-Ling
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.1389-1393
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    • 2012
  • Objective: To discuss the significance of DOG1, CD117 and PDGFRA in the diagnosis of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs), and analyze their correlations with clinicopathological features and risk ranking. Method: DOG1, CD117 and PDGFRA were detected with IHC Envision ldpe-g-nvp in 63 GISTs and 43 cases of non-GISTs, and analyzed for relations with clinicopathological factors (gender, age, location, tumor size, mitotic phase, histology) and risk degree. Results: The positive expression rate of DOG1, CD117 and PDGFRA in GISTs was 84.1% (53/63), 90.5% (57/63), 53.2% (33/63), respectively. Among the 6 CD117 negative cases, all were DOG1 positive and 5 were PDGFRA positive. Rates in patients with non-GISTs was 11.6%, 16.3%, 6.98%, respectively. Expression of DOG1 and PDGFRA demonstrated no significant variation with gender, age, position, tumor size, mitotic phase, histology, and risk rank. However, CD117 was related with position and histology (P=0.008 and P=0.045), those in the mesentery having a higher positive rate than those derived from stomach, small intestine, colon and rectum (50.0% vs 94.7%, P=0.008). Furthermore CD117 was also highly expressed in spindle and epithele types. Conclusions: DOG1 had a good sensitivity and specificity as a kind of newly discovered marker, especially for KIT negative GISTs. However, DOG1, CD117 and PDGFRA cannot be used for assessing the rish of patients.

Seismic induced damageability evaluation of steel buildings: a Fuzzy-TOPSIS method

  • Shahriar, Anjuman;Modirzadeh, Mehdi;Sadiq, Rehan;Tesfamariam, Solomon
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.3 no.5
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    • pp.695-717
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    • 2012
  • Seismic resiliency of new buildings has improved over the years due to better seismic codes and design practices. However, there is still large number of vulnerable and seismically deficient buildings. It is not economically feasible to retrofit and upgrade all vulnerable buildings, thus there is a need for rapid screening tool. Many factors contribute to the damageability of buildings; this makes seismic evaluation a complex multi-criteria decision making problem. Many of these factors are noncommensurable and involve subjectivity in evaluation that highlights the use of fuzzy-based method. In this paper, a risk-based framework earlier proposed by Tesfamariam and Saatcioglu (2008a) is extended using Fuzzy-TOPSIS method and applied to develop an evaluation and ranking scheme for steel buildings. The ranking is based on damageability that can help decision makers interpret the results and take appropriate decision actions. Finally, the application of conceptual model is demonstrated through a case study of 1994 Northridge earthquake data on seismic damage of steel buildings.