• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk modelling

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The July 2, 2017, Lantian landslide in Leibo, China: mechanisms and mitigation measures

  • He, Kun;Ma, Guotao;Hu, Xiewen;Liu, Bo;Han, Mei
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.283-298
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    • 2022
  • Landslides triggered by the combination of heavy precipitation and anthropological disturbance in hilly areas cause severe damage to human lives, properties, and infrastructure constructions. A comprehensive investigation of the influencing factors and failure mechanisms of landslides are significant for disaster mitigation and prevention. This paper utilized the combination of detailed geological investigation, physical experimental testing as well as numerical modelling to determine the failure mechanism, and proposed a countermeasures of the Lantian landslide occurred on 2, July 2017. The results reveal that the Lantian landslide is a catastrophic reactivated slide which occurred in an active tectonic region in Southwest China. Because of the unique geological settings, the fully to highly weathered basalts in the study area with well-developed fractures favored the rainwater infiltration, which is the beneficial to slide reactivation. Engineering excavation and heavy precipitation are the main triggering factors to activate the slide motion. Two failure stages have been identified in the landslide. The first phase involves a shallow mass collapse originated at the upper slopes, which extends from the road to platform at rear part, which is triggered by excavation in the landslide region. Subjected to the following prolonged rainfall from 19 June to 2 July, 2017, the pore water pressure of the slope continually increased, and the groundwater table successively rise, resulting in a significant decrease of soil strength which leads to successive large-scale deep slide. Thereinto, the shallow collapse played a significant role in the formation of the deep slide. Based on the formation mechanisms of the landslide, detailed engineering mitigation measures, involving slope cutting, anchor cable frame, shotcrete and anchorage, retaining wall and intercepting ditch were suggested to reduce the future failure risk of the landslide.

Risk Assessment of Cut Slope by Gravity Field Interpretation and Modelling (비탈면 위험도 평가를 위한 중력장 해석 및 모델링)

  • Choi, Sungchan;Kim, Sung-Wook;Choi, Eun-Kyoung;Lee, Yeong-Jae;Jang, Hyun-Ick
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.533-540
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    • 2021
  • Gravity field analysis and density modeling were performed to evaluate the internal state of the rock mass, which is the cause of cut slope collapse. The shape of the weathered zone and the depth of basement could be confirmed from the complete Bouguer anomaly and density model. The basement depth at the center of the cut slope calculated using the Euler deconvolution inverse method is 30 m, which is about 10 m deeper than the surrounding area. In addition, the depth of basement and the thickness of the weathered zone are similar to the boundary between low resistivity and high resistivity in dipole-dipole survey. From the study results, gravity field analysis and density modeling recognizes the internal state of the rock slope and can be used for slope safety analysis, and is particularly suitable as a method to determine the shape of weathered zones in interpreting the safety of cut slopes

Analysis for Steel Corrosion-Induced Damage in Cross-Section of Reinforced Concrete (철근부식에 의한 철근 콘크리트 단면의 손상 해석)

  • Jung-Suk Kim;Ki Yong Ann
    • Journal of the Korean Recycled Construction Resources Institute
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.79-88
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    • 2023
  • In this study, a development of the rust formation arising from steel corrosion was modelled to quantify the structural impact in steel reinforced concrete. The interfacial gap, cover depth and diameter of steel rebar were taken for variables in modelling. It was found that the interfacial gap was the most influencing on the structural limit at steel corrosion, followed by steel diameter and cover depth. At 75 mm of cover depth with 20 mm of the steel diameter, the rust amount to reach cracking accounted for 16.95-27.69 ㎛ to 1-10 ㎛ of the interfacial gap. It was found that there was no risk of cracking and structural limit until the rust was formed within the interfacial gap. With a further formation of rust, the concrete section was successively behaved to yielding, cracking and failure. Additionally, the interfacial gap was the most dominant parameter for the rust amount to reach the cracking of concrete at the interfacial zone, whilst the cover depth had a marginal effect on cracking but had a crucial influence on the rust to failure.

Model Development for Specific Degradation Using Data Mining and Geospatial Analysis of Erosion and Sedimentation Features

  • Kang, Woochul;Kang, Joongu;Jang, Eunkyung;Julien, Piere Y.
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.85-85
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    • 2020
  • South Korea experiences few large scale erosion and sedimentation problems, however, there are numerous local sedimentation problems. A reliable and consistent approach to modelling and management for sediment processes are desirable in the country. In this study, field measurements of sediment concentration from 34 alluvial river basins in South Korea were used with the Modified Einstein Procedure (MEP) to determine the total sediment load at the sampling locations. And then the Flow Duration-Sediment Rating Curve (FD-SRC) method was used to estimate the specific degradation for all gauging stations. The specific degradation of most rivers were found to be typically 50-300 tons/㎢·yr. A model tree data mining technique was applied to develop a model for the specific degradation based on various watershed characteristics of each watershed from GIS analysis. The meaningful parameters are: 1) elevation at the middle relative area of the hypsometric curve [m], 2) percentage of wetland and water [%], 3) percentage of urbanized area [%], and 4) Main stream length [km]. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of existing models is in excess of 1,250 tons/㎢·yr and the RMSE of the proposed model with 6 additional validations decreased to 65 tons/㎢·yr. Erosion loss maps from the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), satellite images, and aerial photographs were used to delineate the geospatial features affecting erosion and sedimentation. The results of the geospatial analysis clearly shows that the high risk erosion area (hill slopes and construction sites at urbanized area) and sedimentation features (wetlands and agricultural reservoirs). The result of physiographical analysis also indicates that the watershed morphometric characteristic well explain the sediment transport. Sustainable management with the data mining methodologies and geospatial analysis could be helpful to solve various erosion and sedimentation problems under different conditions.

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A Case Study of Decision-Making Towards Using Online Food Distribution Services After Covid-19 In Vietnam

  • Thuc Duc TRAN;Thong Van PHAM;Phu Cam Thi NGUYEN;Loc Tan LOUIS;Ngoc Nhu Thi LE
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.33-47
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: Most emerging-market countries are concerned about the technology boom, which is accompanied by an increase in revenue from online sales and services. This finding has been demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic; however, is this tendency continuing in the new normal, and what factors are driving the increase in consumer decisions? The purpose of this research is to investigate how the decision to utilize online services will be affected in the new normal as well as propose a new research approach in this field. Research Design, Methodology and Approach: By following a deductive research method associated with positivist philosophy, a survey in South Vietnam with 426 respondents using a convenience sampling method was conducted. The reliability of the measurement scales was examined by using the SPSS program. The SmartPLS programme was utilised to assess the measurement and structural models as well as test hypotheses by using partial least squares structural equation modelling. Results: According to the research findings, decision-making has been impacted by social influences, perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, perceived trust, perceived price, and perceived convenience. Conclusions: The research results also bring significant contributions not only in practice in providing management implications but also in theory. The research model has also demonstrated the feasibility of employing the stimuli-organism-response framework and combining the theory of perceived risk with the technology acceptance model via the explanation of decision-making.

Seismic wave propagation through surface basalts - implications for coal seismic surveys (지표 현무암을 통해 전파하는 탄성파의 거동 - 석탄 탄성파탐사에 적용)

  • Sun, Weijia;Zhou, Binzhong;Hatherly, Peter;Fu, Li-Yun
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2010
  • Seismic reflection surveying is one of the most widely used and effective techniques for coal seam structure delineation and risk mitigation for underground longwall mining. However, the ability of the method can be compromised by the presence of volcanic cover. This problem arises within parts of the Bowen and Sydney Basins of Australia and seismic surveying can be unsuccessful. As a consequence, such areas are less attractive for coal mining. Techniques to improve the success of seismic surveying over basalt flows are needed. In this paper, we use elastic wave-equation-based forward modelling techniques to investigate the effects and characteristics of seismic wave propagation under different settings involving changes in basalt properties, its thickness, lateral extent, relative position to the shot position and various forms of inhomogeneity. The modelling results suggests that: 1) basalts with high impedance contrasts and multiple flows generate strong multiples and weak reflectors; 2) thin basalts have less effect than thick basalts; 3) partial basalt cover has less effect than full basalt cover; 4) low frequency seismic waves (especially at large offsets) have better penetration through the basalt than high frequency waves; and 5) the deeper the coal seams are below basalts of limited extent, the less influence the basalts will have on the wave propagation. In addition to providing insights into the issues that arise when seismic surveying under basalts, these observations suggest that careful management of seismic noise and the acquisition of long-offset seismic data with low-frequency geophones have the potential to improve the seismic results.

Time-activity Pattern Assessment for Korean Students (한국 학생들의 시간활동 양상 평가)

  • Ryu, Hyeonsu;Yoon, Hyojung;Eom, Igchun;Park, Jinhyeon;Kim, Sunshin;Cho, Mansu;Yang, Wonho
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to provide basic data for air pollutant exposure modelling and understanding the contribution of respective microenvironments by assessing the time-activity patterns of Korean students according to variables such as grade, sex, weekday, and weekend. Methods: In this study, we compared the residential time of 521 (both weekday and weekend) lower elementary students, 1,735 (1,054 on weekdays, 681 on weekends) upper elementary students, 2,210 (1,294 on weekdays, 916 on weekends) middle school students, and 2,366 (1,387 on weekdays, 979 on weekends) high school students in different microenvironments according to grade, sex, weekday, and weekend. We used data from the 2014 Time-Use Survey by the Korean National Statistical Office for upper elementary students through high school students, and surveyed time-activity patterns of 521 lower elementary students aged 7-9 years. Each microenvironment was divided into indoor, outdoor, and transport. Indoor environments were divided into home, school, and other places. In addition, the results of previous studies were compared to this study. Results: Weekday time-activity patterns of Korean students indicated that lower elementary students spent $16.02{\pm}2.53hr$ in the home and $5.37{\pm}2.32hr$ in school. Upper elementary students spent $14.11{\pm}1.79hr$ in the home and $6.27{\pm}1.37hr$ in school. Middle school students spent $12.83{\pm}2.22hr$ in the home and $7.48{\pm}1.88hr$ in school. High school students spent $10.65{\pm}2.86hr$ in the home and $10.23{\pm}2.86hr$ in school on weekdays. High school students spent the least amount of time in the home and the most time in school compared to other grades Conclusions: Students spent most of their time indoors, including in the home, school, and other indoors. On weekdays, as the grade increases, home residential times were decreased and school residential times were increased. Differences in time-activity patterns according to sex were not found for either weekdays or weekends. It is estimated that Korean students could be affected by school indoor air quality. High school students could be most affected by school indoor air quality since they spent the most time at school.

Study on Digital Restoration by 3-dimensional Image for Gilt Bronze Cap Excavated from the Ancient Tomb of Andong, Goheung (고흥 안동고분 출토 금동관모의 3차원 디지털 복원연구)

  • Lee, Joo-Wan;Oh, Jung-Hyun;Kim, Sa-Dug
    • Journal of Conservation Science
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.181-190
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    • 2011
  • A precision measurement and digital image restoration of the 5th century's gilt bronze cap of Baekje dynasty, excavated from the ancient tomb of Andong, Goheung in 2006, was undertaken. The objective of the scanning is to preserve precise feature of the artefact in the form of digital data by embodying it in 3 dimensional space. Acquirement of the data has been undertaken in the following process : 3D scanning to obtain 3D shape and color information(original data photographing)-3D modelling(joining original data and restoring non-photographed or damaged area)-CG image production. Production of restoration CG image was based on joined shape of original data and each part's measurement on CAD. Non-photographed part and area of loss was restored referring actual measurement and research result of excavated cap from the 5th to 8th century. 3D image restoration is one of artefact restoration methods which restores artefact without risk. It is also undertaken with historical research. As result, this method can enhance aesthetic and academic value of the artefact by successful restoration.

Traveltime estimation of first arrivals and later phases using the modified graph method for a crustal structure analysis (지각구조 해석을 위한 수정 그래프법을 이용한 초동 및 후기 시간대 위상의 주시 추정)

  • Kubota, Ryuji;Nishiyama, Eiichiro;Murase, Kei;Kasahara, Junzo
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.105-113
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    • 2009
  • The interpretation of observed waveform characteristics identified in refraction and wide-angle reflection data increases confidence in the crustal structure model obtained. When calculating traveltimes and raypaths, wavefront methods on a regular grid based on graph theory are robust even with complicated structures, but basically compute only first arrivals. In this paper, we develop new algorithms to compute traveltimes and raypaths not only for first arrivals, but also for fast and later reflection arrivals, later refraction arrivals, and converted waves between P and S, using the modified wavefront method based on slowness network nodes mapped on a multi-layer model. Using the new algorithm, we can interpret reflected arrivals, Pg-later arrivals, strong arrivals appearing behind Pn, triplicated Moho reflected arrivals (PmP) to obtain the shape of the Moho, and phases involving conversion between P and S. Using two models of an ocean-continent transition zone and an oceanic ridge or seamount, we show the usefulness of this algorithm, which is confirmed by synthetic seismograms using the 2D Finite Difference Method (2D-FDM). Characteristics of arrivals and raypaths of the two models differ from each other in that using only first-arrival traveltime data for crustal structure analysis involves risk of erroneous interpretation in the ocean-continent transition zone, or the region around a ridge or seamount.

Prediction of Changes in the Potential Distribution of a Waterfront Alien Plant, Paspalum distichum var. indutum, under Climate Change in the Korean Peninsula (한반도에서 기후변화에 따른 수변 외래식물인 털물참새피의 분포 변화 예측)

  • Cho, Kang-Hyun;Lee, Seung Hyun
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.206-215
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    • 2015
  • Predicting the changes in the potential distribution of invasive alien plants under climate change is an important and challenging task for the conservation of biodiversity and management of the ecosystems in streams and reservoirs. This study explored the effects of climate change on the potential future distribution of Paspalum distichum var. indutum in the Korean Peninsula. P. distichum var. indutum is an invasive grass species that has a profound economic and environmental impact in the waterfronts of freshwater ecosystems. The Maxent model was used to estimate the potential distribution of P. distichum var. indutum under current and future climates. A total of nineteen climatic variables of Worldclim 1.4 were used as current climatic data and future climatic data predicted by HadGEM2-AO with both RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 2050. The predicted current distribution of P. distichum var. indutum was almost matched with actual positioning data. Major environmental variables contributing to the potential distribution were precipitation of the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature and mean temperature of the coldest quarter. Our prediction results for 2050 showed an overall reduction in climatic suitability for P. distichum var. indutum in the current distribution area and its expansion to further inland and in a northerly direction. The predictive model used in this study appeared to be powerful for understanding the potential distribution, exploring the effects of climate change on the habitat changes and providing the effective management of the risk of biological invasion by alien plants.