• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk map

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Prediction of Landslides Occurrence Probability under Climate Change using MaxEnt Model (MaxEnt 모형을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 산사태 발생가능성 예측)

  • Kim, Hogul;Lee, Dong-Kun;Mo, Yongwon;Kil, Sungho;Park, Chan;Lee, Soojae
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2013
  • Occurrence of landslides has been increasing due to extreme weather events(e.g. heavy rainfall, torrential rains) by climate change. Pyeongchang, Korea had seriously been damaged by landslides caused by a typhoon, Ewiniar in 2006. Moreover, the frequency and intensity of landslides are increasing in summer due to torrential rain. Therefore, risk assessment and adaptation measure is urgently needed to build resilience. To support landslide adaptation measures, this study predicted landslides occurrence using MaxEnt model and suggested susceptibility map of landslides. Precipitation data of RCP 8.5 Climate change scenarios were used to analyze an impact of increase in rainfall in the future. In 2050 and 2090, the probability of landslides occurrence was predicted to increase. These were due to an increase in heavy rainfall and cumulative rainfall. As a result of analysis, factors that has major impact on landslide appeared to be climate factors, prediction accuracy of the model was very high(92%). In the future Pyeongchang will have serious rainfall compare to 2006 and more intense landslides area expected to increase. This study will help to establish adaptation measure against landslides due to heavy rainfall.

CUMAP : A Chill Unit Calculator for Spatial Estimation of Dormancy Release Date in Complex Terrain (Chill Unit 축적과 휴면해제시기 공간변이 추정 프로그램 : CUMAP)

  • Kim Kwang S.;Chung U ran;Yun Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.177-182
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    • 2004
  • A chill unit has been used to estimate chilling requirement for dormancy release and risk of freezing damage. A system that calculates chill units was developed to obtain site-specific estimates of dormancy release date for grapes and evaluated in Baekgu myun near Kimje City, Chunbuk, Korea from September 2002 to March 2003. The system utilized daily minimum and maximum temperature maps generated from spatial interpolation with temperature correction for topography. Hourly temperature was temporally interpolated from the daily data using a sine-exponential equation (Patron and Logan, 1981). Hourly chill units were determined from sigmoid, reverse sigmoid, and negatively increasing sigmoid functions based on temperature ranges and summed for 24 h. Cumulative daily chill units obtained from measurements did not increase until 20 October 2002, which was used as a start date for accumulation to estimate the dormancy release date. As a result, a map of dormancy release date in the study area was generated, assuming 800 chill units as a threshold for the chilling requirement. The chill unit accumulation system, implemented using Microsoft Visual Basic and C++ (Microsoft, Redmond, WA, USA), runs in the Windows environment with ArcView (ESRl Inc., Redlands, CA, USA).

A component-based construction process control system for increasing modifiability (변경 용이성 증대를 위한 컴포넌트 기반의 건설공정관리시스템)

  • Kim, Eui-Ryong;Kim, Sin-Ryeong;Kim, Young-Gon
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.303-309
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    • 2015
  • The construction process and safety management are an important means of the total projects for the decision-making. As an important management tool of cost, resources and risks of the project, the analysis and evaluations are recorded as an important asset of company. Also, it has become a safety device that could reduce risk factors repeatedly by the decision-making methods for the future similar projects. Component-based software, by reusing the useful part, which was prepared without newly developing all that, by building a new software product, the long-term continuous/steady through the provision of a component-based software, by securing a sales base, it should be the development and supply a wide range of applications. In this paper, we propose the construction process control systems for increasing modifiability of process creation and modification for business efficiency in accordance with the diverse trends in the construction process as a low-cost niche through a component-based software supplier to solve these problems.

Design and Application of Two-Stage Performance Measurement System Considering Dynamic Capabilities (동태적 역량을 고려한 2단계 성과측정시스템 설계 및 적용)

  • Kwon, Sun-Man;Han, Chang Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2018
  • The dynamic capabilities of sensing market signals, creating new opportunities and reconfiguring resources and capabilities to new opportunities in a rapidly changing economic environment determines the competitiveness of the enterprise to create added value and survival. This study conceptualized a two-stage performance measurement framework based on the casual model of resource (input)-process-performance (output). We have developed a 'Process capability index' that reflect the dynamic capabilities factors as a key intermediary product linking resource inputs and performance outputs in enterprise performance measurement. The process capability index consists of four elements : manpower (level of human resource), operation productivity, structure and risk management. The DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) model was applied to the developed performance indicators to analyze the branch office performance of a telecom company. Process capability efficiency (stage 1) uses resource inputs to reach a certain level of process capabilities. In performance result efficiency (stage 2), the process capabilities are used to generate sales revenues and subscribers. The two-stage DEA model derives intermediate output values that optimize the individual stages simultaneously. Some branch offices in the telecom company have focused on process capability efficiency or some other branch offices focused on performance result efficiency. Positioning map using two-stage efficiency decomposition and benchmarking can help identify the sources of inefficiencies and visualize strategic directions for performance optimization. Applications of two-stage DEA in conjunction with the case study that are meaningfully used in performance measurement areas have been scarce. In particular, this paper has the contribution to present a new performance measurement model considering the organization theory, the dynamic capabilities.

A Methodology of Optimal Technology Combination Selection for Developing a Specific Ubiquitous Smart Space (특정 유비쿼터스 지능공간 구축을 위한 기술조합에 대한 최적 선정 방법론)

  • Lee, Yon-Nim;Kwon, Oh-Byung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.109-131
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    • 2008
  • Ubiquitous Smart Space(USS) like u-City has been expected to create a high added value. However, developing USS has a high risk because it should use future technologies and development methodologies that have been never tried in the past. Hence, it has to be considered thoroughly in the very first stage of development. Moreover, USS usually uses several ubiquitous computing technologies combinationally because of the nature of USS. Despite of this, existing technology selection methodologies or technology evaluation methodologies only focus on a single technology. This leads us to develop a methodology of optimal technology combination for developing a specific USS. The purpose of this paper is to propose the methodology and to apply it to develop a real USS. We use portfolio theory and constraint satisfaction problem to determine an optimal technology combination. We also apply our methodology to the national ubiquitous computing project which carries out at present to validate it.

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Hereditary Colorectal Cancer (유전성 대장암)

  • Kim, Duck-Woo
    • Journal of Genetic Medicine
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.24-36
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    • 2010
  • Colorectal cancer is one of the most steeply increasing malignancies in Korea. Among 398,824 new patients recorded by the Korea Central Cancer Registry between 2003 and 2005, 47,915 cases involved colorectal cancers, accounting for 12.0 % of all malignancies. In 2002, total number of colorectal cancer cases had accounted for 11.2 % of all malignancies. Hereditary syndromes are the source of approximately 5% to 15% of overall colorectal cancer cases. Hereditary colorectal cancers are divided into two types: hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC), and cancers associated with hereditary colorectal polyposis, including familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP), Peutz-Jeghers syndrome, juvenile polyposis, and the recently reported hMutYH (MYH)-associated polyposis (MAP). Hereditary colorectal cancers have unique clinical features distinct from sporadic cancer because these are due to germline mutations of the causative genes; (i) early age-of-onset of cancer, (ii) frequent association with synchronous or metachronous tumors, (iii) frequent association with extracolonic manifestations. The management strategy for patients with hereditary colorectal cancer is quite different from that for sporadic cancer. Furthermore, screening, genetic counseling, and surveillance for at-risk familial member are also important. A well-organized registry can plays a central role in the surveillance and management of families affected by hereditary colorectal cancers. Here, we discuss each type of hereditary colorectal cancer, focusing on the clinical and genetic characteristics, management, genetic screening, and surveillance.

Development of Marine Casualty Forecasting System (I). Construction and Analysis of Marine Casualty Numerical D/B (해양사고 예보 시스템 개발(I): 해양사고 수량화 D/B구축과 분석)

  • Yim, Jeong-Bin
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.359-366
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    • 2003
  • The paper describes on the construction and analysis of marine casualty numerical D/B (N-D/B) to implement Korean MArine Casualty Forecasting System (K-MACFOS). The main target of K-MACFOS is to broadcast the prediction number and risk level of marine casualties as like daily weather forecasting. The data relating to a total of 724 ship casualties in the west-southern sea area (33oN∼35oN, 124oE∼127oE) of Korean peninsula for 11 years (1990∼2000) have been compiled and converted into quantitative data with 14 numeric conversion scales. Through the statistical analysis using contour-map visualization, the usability of N-D/B and the casualty features of the target sea areas are discussed. In addition, the optimum year-band selection method is also proposed to provide correct N-D/B analysis and precise prediction of the number of marine casualties.

An analysis of Flood Inundation using Query and Mathematical Method (Query 및 Mathematical 기법을 이용한 홍수범람 해석)

  • Jeong, Ha-Ok;Park, Sang-Woo;Choo, Tai-Ho;Park, Kun-Chul
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2010
  • In this study, it has been intended to present the ways to improve some problems such as the difficulty of using the program which had got from the existing study, the computation and application of a lot of parameter and the complicated processing which need to be more simplified. Also It has been tried to bring up the ways to make a flood inundation map and a detailed inundation analysis which could reduce the risk factors. We selected an Anseong-Cheon basin, and wrote a flood inundation scenario based on extreme flood to exceed the planned frequency to consider only overflow and levee break and executed inundation simulation. Researchers conducted an analysis of overflow and levee break using function of HEC-RAS Storage with a One-Dimensional model. It applied Elevation versus Volume Curve for more correct inundation simulation than a method of Area-Time-Depth which used in popular. This study will suggest a mathematical method of SURFER with a little difference of inundation area more simplified and precise flood inundation than complicated Arcview 3.2a which used Query method of Arcview 3.2a.

Geographic Information Systems(GIS) Use in Forest Pest Management : A Simulated Study on Mountain Pine Beetle Infestation (지리정보(地理情報)시스템(GIS) 이용(利用)과 산림(山林) 병충해(病蟲害) 관리(管理) : 소나무 좀벌레의 모형적(模型的) 예(例))

  • Lee, Kyu Sung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.78 no.2
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    • pp.168-176
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    • 1989
  • Recent development of geographic information systems(GIS) provides a great deal of potential in handling a variety of spatial data required by forest resource managers. This study is designed to identify a possible GIS application in forest pest management. Several mountain pine beetle risk assessment parameters(stand characteristics, weather conditions, and topographic factor) were spatially analyzed through computer map overlaying operations in order to estimate the hazard level of the pest damage. In addition, the expected infestation route from an initially infected forest stand was located through further may analysis operations(distance measurement and connectivity analysis). Although current GIS technology may have a few limitations in operational situations, the computer based GIS has been proven as an invaluable tool to resource managers by providing flexible spatial data handing capabilities.

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Study on Application of Diffusion Wave Inundation Analysis Model Linked with GIS (GIS와 연계한 확산파 침수해석 모형의 적용에 대한 연구)

  • Cho, Wan-Hee;Han, Kun-Yeon;Choi, Seung-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.88-100
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    • 2009
  • An inundation analysis was performed on Hwapocheon, one of the tributaries of Nakdong River, which was inundated by heavy rain in August, 2002 with overtopping and levee break. The results of the developed model, 2D diffusion wave inundation analysis model, was compared with inundation trace map as well as inundation depth in terms of time and maximum inundated area calculated from FLUMEN model for the assessment of model applicability. The results from the developed model showed high fitness of 88.61% in comparison with observed data. Also maximum inundated area and spatial distribution of inundation zone were also found to be consistent with the results of FLUMEN model. Therefore, inundation zone and maximum inundation area calculated over a period of time by adopting 2D diffusion wave inundation analysis model can be used as a database for identifying high risk areas of inundation and establishing flood damage reduction measures.

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