Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.5394/KINPR.2003.27.4.359

Development of Marine Casualty Forecasting System (I). Construction and Analysis of Marine Casualty Numerical D/B  

Yim, Jeong-Bin (Division of Maritime Transportation System, Mokpo Maritime University)
Publication Information
Journal of Navigation and Port Research / v.27, no.4, 2003 , pp. 359-366 More about this Journal
Abstract
The paper describes on the construction and analysis of marine casualty numerical D/B (N-D/B) to implement Korean MArine Casualty Forecasting System (K-MACFOS). The main target of K-MACFOS is to broadcast the prediction number and risk level of marine casualties as like daily weather forecasting. The data relating to a total of 724 ship casualties in the west-southern sea area (33oN∼35oN, 124oE∼127oE) of Korean peninsula for 11 years (1990∼2000) have been compiled and converted into quantitative data with 14 numeric conversion scales. Through the statistical analysis using contour-map visualization, the usability of N-D/B and the casualty features of the target sea areas are discussed. In addition, the optimum year-band selection method is also proposed to provide correct N-D/B analysis and precise prediction of the number of marine casualties.
Keywords
Ship casualty; Korean Marine Casualty Forecasting System; Numerical D/B; Numeric conversion scale; Optimum year-band selection;
Citations & Related Records
연도 인용수 순위
  • Reference
1 Havard J. Thevik, Eirik Sorgard, and Tim Fowler (2001), A Method for Assessing the Risk of Sea Transportation: Numerical Examples for the Oslofjord, Det Norske Veritas (DNV)
2 John D. Lee and Kim J. Vicente (1998), Safety Concerns at Ontario Hydro: The Need for Safety Management Through Inceident Analysis and Safety Assessment, HESSD 1998, pp.17-26
3 Keith Michel and Thomas S. Winslow (1999), 'Cargo Ship Bunker Tankers: Designing to Mitigate Oil Spillage,' SNAME Joint California Sections Meeting, pp.1-11
4 P. Tuovinen, V. Kostilainen and Hamalainen (1984), Studies on the Ship Casualties in the Baltic Sea 1979-1981, Baltic Sea Environment Processing, No.11
5 U.S. Department of Transportation, United States Coast Guard(1999), 'OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT,' COMDTINST 3500.3
6 나송진, 김상수, 박진수, 정재용(2003), '해양사고 조사모델의 개발에 관한 연구', 한국항해항만학회 2003 춘계공동학술대회 논문집, 제27권, 제1호, pp.42-50   과학기술학회마을
7 임정빈(2003a), 가상현실 모델링 기법을 적용한 해양안전 사고 예보 시스템 개발, 2003년도 해양한국발전프로그램(KSGP) 연구개발사업 연구보고서
8 임정빈, 허용범, 김창경(2003b), '해양사고 예보시스템 개발(I):해양사고 수량화 D/B 구축,' 한국항해항만학회 2003 춘계공동학술대회 논문집, 제27권, 제1호, pp.51-57
9 중앙해난심판원(1994), 1994년 해난심판사례집(1993.1-12)
10 중앙해난심판원(1995), 1995년 해난심판사례집(1994.1-12)
11 중앙해난심판원(1996), 1996년 해난심판사례집(1995.1-12)
12 중앙해난심판원(1997), 1997년 해난심판사례집(1996.1-12)
13 중앙해난심판원(1998), 1998년 해난심판사례집(1997.1-12)
14 중앙해양심판원(1998), 1999년 해난심판사례집(1998.1-12)
15 중앙해양심판원(1999), 2000년 해난심판사례집(1999.1-12)
16 중앙해양심판원(2000), 2001년 해난심판사례집(2000.1-12)
17 한국해양수산개발원(1999), 해상교통D/B구축을 위한 기본설계
18 해양수산부(2002a), 해양사고 분석 및 평가, 해양수산부 정책자료
19 해양안전심판원(2003), 2002년 해양사고 발생건수
20 해양수산부(2002), 해양안전 중장기 발전계획(안)
21 해양수산부(2002), '사이버 해양강국 실현을 위한' 해양수산정보화촉진기본계획(안) (2002-2006)
22 해양안전심판원(2001), 해양안전심판 검색프로그램(CD)
23 Det Norske Veritas (1998), Statement of Capability Safety Assessments for Offshore Facilities
24 Bilal M. Ayyub and William J. Bender (1999), Assessment of the Construction Feasibility of the Mobile Offshore Base-Part I-Risk-Informed Assessment Methodology, Technical Report No.CTSM-98-RBA-MOB-1