• 제목/요약/키워드: risk degree

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Generalized Logistic 분포형을 이용한 수공구조물의 위험도에 대한 불확실성 해석 (Uncertainty Analysis of the Risk of Hydraulic Structures Using Generalized Logistic Distribution)

  • 신홍준;허준행
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2006년도 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.758-763
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    • 2006
  • Statistical concepts and methods are routinely utilized in a number of design and management problems in engineering hydrology. This is because most of hydrological processes have some degree of randomness and uncertainty. Thus, the concepts of risk and uncertainty are commonly utilized for designing and evaluating hydraulic structures such as spillways and dikes. Therefore, in this study, uncertainty analysis considering the variance of design floods is performed to evaluate the uncertainty of the hydrologic risk of flood related hydraulic structures using frequency analysis.

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등위험곡선을 이용한 해상의 2차원 위험도 평가에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Risk Evaluation in Two Dimensions at Sea with Even Risk Contour)

  • 공성호;이은방
    • 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국항해항만학회 1998년도 제 23회 정기총회 및 추계학술발표회
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 1998
  • In the decision of a collision avoidance action for navigators and intellignet ships, it is necessary to evaluate the degree of surrounding risks effectively. We propose the new risk evaluation technique in two dimensions using Even Risk Contour on the basis of the concept of contour line. In this paper, we introduce the algorithms ofERC and Approach Velocity(AV) and show their application for avoiding traffic collision at sea.

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청년층 성인남성에서 흡연, 음주, 비만지표가 심뇌혈관계 위험인자에 미치는 영향 (Influencing Factors on Cardio-cerebrovascular Disease Risk Factors in Young Men: Focusing on Obesity Indices)

  • 김철규;이시향;차선경
    • Journal of Korean Biological Nursing Science
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    • 제19권1호
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate influences of drinking, smoking, and obesity indices on cardio-cerebrovascular disease risk factors in Korean young men. Methods: The subjects were 234 young men, aged 20 to 39 years. Body mass index (BMI), percent body fat (PBF), body fat mass (kg), and waist hip ratio (WHR) were measured as obesity indices. Systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), fasting blood sugar (FBS), total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) were measured as cardio-cerebrovascular disease risk factors. The data were analyzed by t-test, ANOVA, Pearson's correlation coefficient, and multiple regression analysis using SAS 9.4. Results: Statistically significant factors were BMI for SEP; age, degree of drinking, body fat mass for DBP; WHR for TC; WHR and age for TG; age, degree of smoking and PBF for HDL-C; WHR, age and degree of smoking for LDL-C. Conclusion: Factors identified in this study need to be considered in cardio-cerebrovascular disease prevention programs for young men.

공공기관의 정보시스템 아웃소싱에 미치는 영향 요인과 도입 성과 (Influence Factors and the Introducing Outcomes over IT Outsourcing in the Government Offices)

  • 전제만;이선규
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제13권3호
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    • pp.339-351
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    • 2013
  • 본 연구는 IT 아웃소싱에 미치는 영향요인과 도입성과를 실증적으로 분석하였다. IT 아웃소싱에 미치는 영향 요인은 조직요인(정보시스템 성숙도, CEO의 지원), 거래요인(자산 특수성, 불확실성, 정보시스템의 사용정도), 위험요인(안전성(보안)의 위험, 비용의 증가위험, 자율성 상실의 위험)으로 설정하였다. 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 조직요인에서 정보시스템 성숙도와 CEO의 지원요인은 도입성과에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 변수로 분석되었고, 거래요인에서는 정보시스템 사용정도 변수만이 도입성과에 영향을 미치는 변수로 분석되었으며, 자산의 특수성 요인과 불확실성 요인은 도입성과에 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 분석되었다. 위험요인에서는 안전성(보안)의 위험, 비용의 증가 위험 요인만이 도입성과에 영향을 미치는 변수로 분석되었고, 자율성 상실의 위험요인은 도입성과에 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 분석되었다.

개인 정보 노출에 대한 정량적 위험도 분석 방안 (A method for quantitative measuring the degree of damage by personal information leakage)

  • 김평;이윤호;티무르 쿠다이베르게노프
    • 정보보호학회논문지
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.395-410
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    • 2015
  • 본 연구에서는 개인 정보별 노출시 피해를 정량적으로 산출할 수 있는 위험도를 정의한다. 제안 방법은 개인정보를 세분화 후, 각 개별 위험도를 산정한다. 또한 두 가지 이상의 정보가 복합될 경우의 추가되는 위협도 동시에 고려한다. 또한 개인 정보를 습득하고자 하는 공격자 유형별로 개인 정보의 가치를 구분하여 개인정보 노출시에 어떠한 공격에 취약한지를 알 수 있도록 하였다. 또한 노출 정도를 판별하기 위해 엔트로피 개념을 위험도 산출시 도입한다. 이를 바탕으로 페이스북 사용자들의 공개된 정보에 대한 위험도를 분석한다. 2만여명의 공개 정보를 분석한 결과, 페이스북 사용자는 평균적으로 스토커 공격에 취약한 것으로 보여졌다.

Prognostic Value of Coronary CT Angiography for Predicting Poor Cardiac Outcome in Stroke Patients without Known Cardiac Disease or Chest Pain: The Assessment of Coronary Artery Disease in Stroke Patients Study

  • Sung Hyun Yoon;Eunhee Kim;Yongho Jeon;Sang Yoon Yi;Hee-Joon Bae;Ik-Kyung Jang;Joo Myung Lee;Seung Min Yoo;Charles S. White;Eun Ju Chun
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • 제21권9호
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    • pp.1055-1064
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    • 2020
  • Objective: To assess the incremental prognostic value of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) in comparison to a clinical risk model (Framingham risk score, FRS) and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) for future cardiac events in ischemic stroke patients without chest pain. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study included 1418 patients with acute stroke who had no previous cardiac disease and underwent CCTA, including CACS. Stenosis degree and plaque types (high-risk, non-calcified, mixed, or calcified plaques) were assessed as CCTA variables. High-risk plaque was defined when at least two of the following characteristics were observed: low-density plaque, positive remodeling, spotty calcification, or napkin-ring sign. We compared the incremental prognostic value of CCTA for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) over CACS and FRS. Results: The prevalence of any plaque and obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) (stenosis ≥ 50%) were 70.7% and 30.2%, respectively. During the median follow-up period of 48 months, 108 patients (7.6%) experienced MACE. Increasing FRS, CACS, and stenosis degree were positively associated with MACE (all p < 0.05). Patients with high-risk plaque type showed the highest incidence of MACE, followed by non-calcified, mixed, and calcified plaque, respectively (log-rank p < 0.001). Among the prediction models for MACE, adding stenosis degree to FRS showed better discrimination and risk reclassification compared to FRS or the FRS + CACS model (all p < 0.05). Furthermore, incorporating plaque type in the prediction model significantly improved reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement, 0.08; p = 0.023) and showed the highest discrimination index (C-statistics, 0.85). However, the addition of CACS on CCTA with FRS did not add to the prediction ability for MACE (p > 0.05). Conclusion: Assessment of stenosis degree and plaque type using CCTA provided additional prognostic value over CACS and FRS to risk stratify stroke patients without prior history of CAD better.

관세업무리스크 인식과 보험사고 발생에 관한 실증연구 (An empirical study of customs business risk recognition and insurance accident occurrence)

  • 정성훈;김태인
    • 통상정보연구
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    • 제9권3호
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    • pp.205-229
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    • 2007
  • This study analyzed relation with risk recognition degree by customs business of customs brokers and actuality insurance accident occurrence. These study finding that risk recognition by customs work area of customs brokers and actuality insurance accident occur did not agree. So customs brokers more elevate risk recognition of entry field, origin/trademark right, HS and customs tariff application, customs refund, price estimation that are high the insurance accident rate. and they may have to do emphasis administration through employee education and ability elevation. Specially, operation risk that is produced from charge employee's simplicity mistake who tax invoice omission, a tax use mistake, document nondelivery, notice dispatch delayed action, may have to manage through moral management and employee bylaws and education, employee guidance etc. Also, they publicize these contents to import and export enterprise, and practice risk management of high risk business in priority through education and public information. so we will have to make can do more effective risk management.

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일부 환경 전문가들의 환경 위해성 인식도에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Environmental Professionals′ Risk Perception towards Some Pollution Issues)

  • 신동천;박종연;임영욱;김진용;장은아;박성은
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • 제14권4호
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    • pp.175-187
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    • 1999
  • To investigate the risk perception of environmental issues, two consequtive surveys were conducted to environmental professionals using a standardized questionnaire from September to October in 1999. The number of subjects were 72 for the first survey and 68 for the second one. The questionnaire was consisted of items such as the degree of environmental pollution in Korea, risk perception of some issues on human health and ecosystem, and seriousness of the problems in the real situation in Korea. For the degree of environmental pollution in Korea, the average risk rating in the second test (7.4 point) was significantly higher than that in the first test (7.2 point). The risk perception on the general human health and ecosystem, and the seriousness in Korea situation were analyzed in the order of ′air pollution′, ′water pollution′,′soil contamination′,′waste′,′toxic chemical pollutants′,′food contamination′,′ocean contamination′, ′odor pollution′, and ′noise pollution′. Also ′toxic chemical pollutants′ problem was perceived to be the highest risk on general human health or ecosystem, and on present situation in Korea. ′Automotive vehicle exhaust′ problem was perceived to be the most severe environmental problems among specific 30 items. ′Industrial source air pollution′,′toxic air pollutants′, and ′domestic and industrial source pollutants to surface water′ were relatively severe environmental problems comparing to other problems. The pollution issues were classified into four categories by two aspects of perception; risk in general setting and seriousness in Korea situation. If the issues were highly serious in Korea and low risk perception in general setting then it is named "the Korea-specific group". Those that were all high score in two aspects, named "the Common group". Those that were all low in two aspects, named "the Nonsignificant group". And the issues were high risk perception in general setting and low seriousness in Korean situation, named "the Latent group".

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Assessing Breast Cancer Risk among Iranian Women Using the Gail Model

  • Khazaee-Pool, Maryam;Majlessi, Fereshteh;Nedjat, Saharnaz;Montazeri, Ali;Janani, leila;Pashaei, Tahereh
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제17권8호
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    • pp.3759-3762
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    • 2016
  • Background: Breast cancer risk assessment is a helpful method for estimating development of breast cancer at the population level. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, participants consisted of a group of 3,847 volunteers ($mean{\pm}SD$ age: $463{\pm}7.59$ years) in a convenience sample of women referred to health centers affiliated to Tehran University of Medical Sciences in Tehran, Iran. The risk of breast cancer was estimated by applying the National Cancer Institute's online version of the Gail Risk Assessment Tool. Results: Some 24.9% of women reported having one first-degree female relative with breast cancer, with 8.05% of them having two or more first-degree relatives with breast cancer. The mean five-year risk of breast cancer for all participants was $1.61{\pm}0.73%$, and 9.36% of them had a five-year risk of breast cancer >1.66%. The mean lifetime risk of breast cancer was $11.7{\pm}3.91%$. Conclusions: The Gail model is useful for assessing probability of breast cancer in Iranian women. Based on the their breast cancer risk, women may decide to accept further screening services.

GIS 기반 철도 위험물 수송의 위험도 관리 표준화 방안 (A Study on Standardization of Risk Management based on GIS for Railway HAZMAT Movement)

  • 팽정광;김시곤;박민규
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2009년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.1365-1375
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    • 2009
  • The types and quantities of Hazmat and Hazmat transport are gradually increasing, keeping pace with industrialization and urbanization. There are currently more than 1,000 types of Hazmat,, and new types are added every year. At present the safety management for Hazmat transport only considers reducing accident probability, but even when an accident involving Hazmat-carrying vehicles occurs, that is not regarded as a Hazmat-related accident if the Hazmats do not leak out from the containers carrying them. Based on this principle, in turn., the methods to reduce risk (Risk=Probability$\times$Consequence) have to be developed by incorporating accident probability and consequence. By using Geographic Information System (GIS), a technical method was invented and is automatically able to evaluate the consequence by different types of Hazmat. Thus this study analyzed the degree of risk on the links classified by the Hazmat transport pathways. In order to mitigate the degree of risk, a method of 7-step risk management in transporting Hazmat on railway industries was suggested. The 7-step risk management is definded as the following: 1st step: buliding up GIS DB, 2nd step: calculating accident probability on each link, 3rd step: calculating consequence by Hazmat types, 4th step: determination of risk, 5th step: analysis of alternative plans for mitigating the risk, 6th: measure of effectiveness against each alternative, and 7th step: action plans to be weak probability and consequence by the range recommended from ALARP. In conclusion., those 7 steps are recommended as a standardization method in this study.

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