• 제목/요약/키워드: risk assessment model

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메르스 위험정보유통의 사회적 확산에 관한 SMCRE 모형의 적용과 함의 (Applications of SMCRE Model on Social Amplification of MERS Risk Information and its Implications)

  • 최충익;배숙경;김철민
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제14권6호
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    • pp.89-98
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - This article tackles risk communication issues and aims to address the characteristics of MERS risk information distribution in South Korea, and secondly to examine the communicative behavior of the public health authority in terms of the quality of communication strategies. Thirdly, the study attempts to figure out the risk communication to cope with MERS through the applications of SMCRE model in chronological order. We employ the social amplification of risk framework for analyzing the emergent public response as one of the main approaches. Research Design, Data and Methodology - The main framework of this study is theoretically based on the social amplification of risk, which describes signals about risk transmitted and processed by individuals and social groups. The model also reflects the interactions between social groups and institutes about disaster-related risk issues, which are potential amplifiers or attenuators of communication signals. S-M-C-R-E Model is methodologically employed to examine the social amplification for MERS risk information in each period, which we defined operationally. The proposed methodology allows the assessment of effectiveness and ineffectiveness on risk communication to be conceptualized as a countermeasure against disasters. The paper focuses on exploring how social risk amplification can be applied and organized in each stage. Results - The SMCRE model describes the exchange of risk information and is also applied to all forms of communication between stakeholders including public health authority, local government and media. Each factor of risk communication includes source, message, channel, receiver and effect. The results support that the effective risk communication involves not only the improved reliability of public health authority as a key factor of risk communication, but also a close cooperation and good collaboration with local governments. It does not seem to be possible that the government-initiated risk communication based on controllability and management cope effectively with infectious disease in early stage. The results of this study imply that the shared risks between local, regional and national authorities can enhance risk communication system. Conclusions - The study supports that the disparities in how disaster-related risk information is interpreted and coded, have made effective risk communication and public sense-making impeded. Our findings support a more communicative discussion about the role of risk information sharing between governments for the improvement of emergency management and underline the importance of social elements in the risk communication, such as relationship and trust building. Findings suggest that trust building between stakeholders could be added to help explain the processes of social amplification and attenuation of risk. It would be recommended that the continuous risk communication with all the involved stakeholders will be able to help national health promotion policy to be improved regarding emergency management. Furthermore, risk communication has to be a scientific approach for the communication pertaining to potentially sensitive or controversial situations with public concerns and low public trust.

4개 모델에 따른 항공기의 대기 부식성 모의 결과 비교 (A Comparison of Four Atmospheric Corrosivity Modeling Results for Aircraft)

  • 우무성;이재원;이지혜;우경진;박종철
    • 한국항공운항학회지
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    • 제31권3호
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    • pp.79-92
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    • 2023
  • Aluminum alloys are important materials in modern aircraft. Aircraft failures due to corrosion are fatal and costly. Thus, information about the atmospheric corrosion of aluminum is helpful for aviation safety. This study employed four corrosion models and 12 environmental variables to improve knowledge of aluminum atmospheric corrosivity: PACER LIME, ICP, ISO CORRAG, and a modified model of CORRAG. This study applied each model on 47 aircraft operating bases in Korea and compared the results. In the results, The risk of corrosion was different for each model. The cause was the difference in environmental variables according to the model. Especially, the effect of ozone, which has recently been increasing, was shown in the results of PACER LIME. These findings suggest that caution is needed when assessing atmospheric corrosion risk as a single model. Furthermore, it means that the application and integration of various models are needed to improve atmospheric corrosion risk assessment.

Damage analysis of arch dam under blast loading

  • Xue, Xinhua;Yang, Xingguo;Zhang, Wohua
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.65-77
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    • 2013
  • This paper examines the dynamic response of an arch dam subjected to blast loading. A damage model is developed for three dimensional analysis of arch dams. The modified Drucker-Prager criterion is adopted as the failure criteria of the damage evolution in concrete. Then, Xiluodu arch dam serves as an example to simulate the failure behaviors of structures with the proposed model. The results obtained using the proposed model can reveal the reliability degree of the safe operation level of the high arch dam system as well as the degree of potential failure, providing a reliable basis for risk assessment and risk control.

Extended Linear Vulnerability Discovery Process

  • Joh, HyunChul
    • Journal of Multimedia Information System
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    • 제4권2호
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2017
  • Numerous software vulnerabilities have been found in the popular operating systems. And recently, robust linear behaviors in software vulnerability discovery process have been noticeably observed among the many popular systems having multi-versions released. Software users need to estimate how much their software systems are risk enough so that they need to take an action before it is too late. Security vulnerabilities are discovered throughout the life of a software system by both the developers, and normal end-users. So far there have been several vulnerability discovery models are proposed to describe the vulnerability discovery pattern for determining readiness for patch release, optimal resource allocations or evaluating the risk of vulnerability exploitation. Here, we apply a linear vulnerability discovery model into Windows operating systems to see the linear discovery trends currently observed often. The applicability of the observation form the paper show that linear discovery model fits very well with aggregate version rather than each version.

태풍 매미의 피해 데이터 기반 국내 태풍 취약성 분석에 관한 연구 (Analysis of Typhoon Vulnerability According to Quantitative Loss Data of Typhoon Maemi)

  • 안성진;김태희;김지명
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2019년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.125-126
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    • 2019
  • This study aims to recognize damage indicators of typhoon and to develop damage function's indicators, using information derived from the actual loss of typhoon Maemi. As typhoons engender significant financial damage all over the world, governments and insurance companies, local or global, develop hurricane risk assessment models and use it in quantifying, avoiding, mitigating, or transferring the risks. For the reason, it is crucial to understand the importance of the risk assessment model for typhoons, and the importance of reflecting local vulnerabilities for more advanced evaluation. Although much previous research on the economic losses associated with natural disasters has identified the risk indicators that are indispensable, more comprehensive research addressing the relationship between vulnerability and economic loss are still called for. Hence this study utilizes and analyzes the actual loss record of the typhoon Maemi provided by insurance companies to fill such gaps. In this study, natural disaster indicators and basic building information indicators are used in order to generate the vulnerability functions; and the results and indicators suggest a practical approach to create the vulnerability functions for insurance companies and administrative tasks, while reflecting the financial loss and local vulnerability of the actual buildings.

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Seismic risk assessment of deficient reinforced concrete frames in near-fault regions

  • Cao, Vui Van;Ronagh, Hamid Reza;Baji, Hassan
    • Advances in concrete construction
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    • 제2권4호
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    • pp.261-280
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    • 2014
  • In many parts of the world, reinforced concrete (RC) buildings, designed and built in accordance with older codes, have suffered severe damage or even collapse as a result of recent near-fault earthquakes. This is particularly due to the deficiencies of most of the older (and even some of the recent) codes in dealing with near fault events. In this study, a tested three-storey frame designed for gravity loads only was selected to represent those deficient buildings. Nonlinear time history analyses were performed, followed by damage assessment procedures. The results were compared with experimental observation of the same frame showing a good match. Damage and fragility analyses of the frame subjected to 204 pulse-type motions were then performed using a selected damage model and inter-storey drifts. The results showed that the frame located in near-fault regions is extremely vulnerable to ground motions. The results also showed that the damage model better captures the damage distribution in the frame than inter-storey drifts. The first storey was identified as the most fragile and the inner columns of the first storey suffered most damage as indicated by the damage index. The findings would be helpful in the decision making process prior to the strengthening of buildings in near-fault regions.

부산시 U-City 모델 구축을 위한 재해취약지 분석 (Estimation of Vulnerable Disaster Areas to Establish Busan U-City Model)

  • 전상수;장현민
    • 한국방재학회 논문집
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2008
  • 재해 재난으로부터 발생하는 피해는 이상기후현상의 증가와 산업화 및 정보화로 인한 사회구조의 다양화로 인하여 증가하고 있어 이에 대한 관리 방안이 요구된다. 또한, 지역 사회에서 재해를 예방하고 재해발생시 피해경감을 가능하게 하는 방재도시 구축을 위해서는 재해취약지역의 진단 및 평가 필요성이 대두되고 있다. 본 연구를 통하여 부산시의 U-City 모델 구축을 위한 방재 안전도시건설에 활용할 실시간 모니터링 시스템의 기초자료를 도출하고, 체계적인 방재대책을 수립하고자 과거피해이력을 기준으로 재해 취약성 정도와 사회기반시설 위험도 평가를 GIS를 이용하여 도시화하고 재해지역의 사회기반시설의 위험순위를 제시하였다.

Fragility assessment for electric cabinet in nuclear power plant using response surface methodology

  • Tran, Thanh-Tuan;Cao, Anh-Tuan;Nguyen, Thi-Hong-Xuyen;Kim, Dookie
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제51권3호
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    • pp.894-903
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    • 2019
  • An approach for collapse risk assessment is proposed to evaluate the vulnerability of electric cabinet in nuclear power plants. The lognormal approaches, namely maximum likelihood estimation and linear regression, are introduced to establish the fragility curves. These two fragility analyses are applied for the numerical models of cabinets considering various boundary conditions, which are expressed by representing restrained and anchored models at the base. The models have been built and verified using the system identification (SI) technique. The fundamental frequency of the electric cabinet is sensitive because of many attached devices. To bypass this complex problem, the average spectral acceleration $S_{\bar{a}}$ in the range of period that cover the first mode period is chosen as an intensity measure on the fragility function. The nonlinear time history analyses for cabinet are conducted using a suite of 40 ground motions. The obtained curves with different approaches are compared, and the variability of risk assessment is evaluated for restrained and anchored models. The fragility curves obtained for anchored model are found to be closer each other, compared to the fragility curves for restrained model. It is also found that the support boundary conditions played a significant role in acceleration response of cabinet.

Distributed plasticity approach for the nonlinear structural assessment of offshore wind turbine

  • Tran, Thanh-Tuan;Hussan, Mosaruf;Kim, Dookie;Nguyen, Phu-Cuong
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.743-754
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    • 2020
  • This study provides an insight of the nonlinear behavior of the Offshore Wind Turbine (OWT) structure using the distributed plasticity approach. The fiber section beam-column element is applied to construct the finite element model. The accuracy of the proposed model is verified using linear analysis via the comparison of the dynamic characteristics. For collapse risk assessment of OWT, the nonlinear effects considering the earthquake Incident Angle (IA) have been evaluated first. Then, the Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) has been executed using a set of 20 near-fault records. Lastly, fragility curves are developed to evaluate the vulnerability of structures for different limit states. Attained results justify the accuracy of the proposed approach for the structural response against the ground motions and other environmental loads. It indicates that effects of static wind and wave loads along with the earthquake loads should be considered during the risk assessment of the OWT structure.

가치구조화기법에 의한 매립지 유해성 등급화 (Assessment of Landfill Hazard Using the Value-Structured Approach)

  • 홍상표;김정욱
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제6권1호
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    • pp.93-103
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    • 1997
  • LHR(Landfill Site Hazard Ranking Model) was developed for ranking the relative hazard of landfill sites by using the method of value-structured approach. LHR consists of combining a multiattribute decision-making method with a Qualitative risk assessment approach. A pairwise com parisian method was applied to determine weights of landfill site factors related. To determine the hazard of landfill site, hydrogeological factors, waste characteristics factors and receptors factors were evaluated by LHR. LHR can help decision-makers prioritization of remediation of landfill sites through the relatively convenient and concise evaluation method of landfill site features related. LHR focuses mainly on pathways of groundwater and surfacewater for evaluating landfill hazard to receptors including humans. To validiate the applicability of LHR, Nanjido Landfill site, Metropolitan Landfill site, and Hwasung Landfill site were evaluated.

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