• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk assessment model

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Risk-based Safety Impact Assessment for Construction Projects (위험도 접근방법에 의한 건설사업 안전영향평가방안에 관한 연구)

  • Choi Hyun-Ho;Jung Pyung-Ki;Seo Jong-Won;Choi Ook
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.504-509
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    • 2004
  • Safety assessment of construction projects may be affected by various factors such as types and scale of projects, construction methods, procedure, climactic, and site conditions etc. Presently, in planning and design phases, designers are still often uncertain of their responsibilities, l3i]I information and training of safety. Therefore, designers are still failing to exploit the potential that have to eliminate and reduce risks on site. In this study, the concepts of safety impact assessment is introduced in order to derive the performing design for safety in design phase. For this purpose, a framework for safety impact assessment model using risk-based approach for construction projects is suggested. The suggested model includes of information survey and scenarios, classification of safety impact factors occurred by design and construction, and quantitative estimation of magnitude and frequency. Moreover, the checklist which is enable to identify relationship between safety impact factors and design factors is developed and the methodology of safety impact assessment model using risk-based approach is also proposed.

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AN OVERVIEW OF RISK QUANTIFICATION ISSUES FOR DIGITALIZED NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS USING A STATIC FAULT TREE

  • Kang, Hyun-Gook;Kim, Man-Cheol;Lee, Seung-Jun;Lee, Ho-Jung;Eom, Heung-Seop;Choi, Jong-Gyun;Jang, Seung-Cheol
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.849-858
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    • 2009
  • Risk caused by safety-critical instrumentation and control (I&C) systems considerably affects overall plant risk. As digitalization of safety-critical systems in nuclear power plants progresses, a risk model of a digitalized safety system is required and must be included in a plant safety model in order to assess this risk effect on the plant. Unique features of a digital system cause some challenges in risk modeling. This article aims at providing an overview of the issues related to the development of a static fault-tree-based risk model. We categorize the complicated issues of digital system probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) into four groups based on their characteristics: hardware module issues, software issues, system issues, and safety function issues. Quantification of the effect of these issues dominates the quality of a developed risk model. Recent research activities for addressing various issues, such as the modeling framework of a software-based system, the software failure probability and the fault coverage of a self monitoring mechanism, are discussed. Although these issues are interrelated and affect each other, the categorized and systematic approach suggested here will provide a proper insight for analyzing risk from a digital system.

Human Risk Assessment of a Contaminated Site Using Korean Risk-Based Corrective Action (K-RBCA) Software (한국형 소프트웨어를 이용한 유류.중금속 복합오염지역의 인체위해성평가 및 RBCA Tool Kit과의 비교분석)

  • Nam, Taek-Woo;Ryu, Hye-Rim;Kim, Young-Jin;Ko, Seok-Oh;Baek, Ki-Tae;Nam, Kyoung-Phile
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.32-41
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    • 2011
  • By using a newly developed Korean risk-based corrective action (K-RBCA) software (K-RBCA) and the RBCA Tool Kit, risk assessment was performed on a site that was contaminated with aromatic hydrocarbons and heavy metals. Eight chemicals including benzene, ethylbenzene, xylenes, naphthalene, benz(a) anthracene, benzo(b) fluoranthene, benzo(a) pyrene, and arsenic that exceeded the US EPA Soil Screening Level were chosen as the target pollutants. A conceptual site model was constructed based on the site-specific effective exposure pathways. According to the RBCA Tool Kit the carcinogenic risk of arsenic was larger than $10^{-6}$, which is the generally acceptable carcinogenic risk level. The K-RBCA estimated the same level of carcinogenic risk for arsenic. With the RBCA Tool Kit, the carcinogenic risk of benzo(a) pyrene was estimated to be about $1.3{\times}10^{-6}$. However, with the K-RBCA benzo(a) pyrene did not exhibit any risk. The inconsistency between the softwares was attributed to the different fundamental settings (i.e., medium division) between the two softwares. While the K-RBCA divides medium into surface soil, subsurface soil, and groundwater, the RBCA Tool Kit divides medium into only soil and groundwater. These differences lead to the different exposure pathways used by the two softwares. The K-RBCA considers the exposure pathways in surface soil and subsurface soil separately to estimate risk, however, the RBCA Tool Kit considers the surface soil and subsurface soil as one and uses the integrated exposure pathways to estimate risk. Thus the resulting risk is higher when the RBCA Tool Kit is used than when the K-RBCA is used. The results from this study show that there is no significant difference in the risks estimated by the two softwares, thus, it is reasonable to use the K-RBCA we developed in risk assessment of soil and groundwater. In addition, the present study demonstrates that the assessor should be familiar with the characteristics of a contaminated site and the assumptions used by a risk assessment software when carrying out risk assessment.

Development of Quantitative Risk Assessment Methodology for the Maritime Transportation Accident of Merchant Ship (상선 운항 사고의 양적 위기평가기법 개발)

  • Yim, Jeong-Bin
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.9-19
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    • 2009
  • This paper describes empirical approach methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of maritime transportation accident (MTA) of a merchant ship. The principal aim of this project is to estimate the risk of MTA that could degrade the ship safety by analyzing the underlying factors contributing to MTA based on the IMO's Formal Safety Assessment techniques and, by assessing the probabilistic risk level of MTA based on the quantitative risk assessment methodology. The probabilistic risk level of MTA to Risk Index (RI) composed with Probability Index (PI) and Severity Index (SI) can be estimated from proposed Maritime Transportation Accident Model (MTAM) based on Bayesian Network with Bayesian theorem Then the applicability of the proposed MTAM can be evaluated using the scenario group with 355 core damaged accident history. As evaluation results, the correction rate of estimated PI, $r_{Acc}$ is shown as 82.8%, the over ranged rate of PI variable sensitivity with $S_p{\gg}1.0$ and $S_p{\ll}1.0$ is shown within 10%, the averaged error of estimated SI, $\bar{d_{SI}}$ is shown as 0.0195 and, the correction rate of estimated RI, $r_{Acc}$(%), is shown as 91.8%. These results clearly shown that the proposed accident model and methodology can be use in the practical maritime transportation field.

A software tool for integrated risk assessment of spent fuel transportation and storage

  • Yun, Mirae;Christian, Robby;Kim, Bo Gyung;Almomani, Belal;Ham, Jaehyun;Lee, Sanghoon;Kang, Hyun Gook
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.721-733
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    • 2017
  • When temporary spent fuel storage pools at nuclear power plants reach their capacity limit, the spent fuel must be moved to an alternative storage facility. However, radioactive materials must be handled and stored carefully to avoid severe consequences to the environment. In this study, the risks of three potential accident scenarios (i.e., maritime transportation, an aircraft crashing into an interim storage facility, and on-site transportation) associated with the spent fuel transportation process were analyzed using a probabilistic approach. For each scenario, the probabilities and the consequences were calculated separately to assess the risks: the probabilities were calculated using existing data and statistical models, and the consequences were calculated using computation models. Risk assessment software was developed to conveniently integrate the three scenarios. The risks were analyzed using the developed software according to the shipment route, building characteristics, and spent fuel handling environment. As a result of the risk analysis with varying accident conditions, transportation and storage strategies with relatively low risk were developed for regulators and licensees. The focus of this study was the risk assessment methodology; however, the applied model and input data have some uncertainties. Further research to reduce these uncertainties will improve the accuracy of this model.

Accelerated Monte Carlo analysis of flow-based system reliability through artificial neural network-based surrogate models

  • Yoon, Sungsik;Lee, Young-Joo;Jung, Hyung-Jo
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.175-184
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    • 2020
  • Conventional Monte Carlo simulation-based methods for seismic risk assessment of water networks often require excessive computational time costs due to the hydraulic analysis. In this study, an Artificial Neural Network-based surrogate model was proposed to efficiently evaluate the flow-based system reliability of water distribution networks. The surrogate model was constructed with appropriate training parameters through trial-and-error procedures. Furthermore, a deep neural network with hidden layers and neurons was composed for the high-dimensional network. For network training, the input of the neural network was defined as the damage states of the k-dimensional network facilities, and the output was defined as the network system performance. To generate training data, random sampling was performed between earthquake magnitudes of 5.0 and 7.5, and hydraulic analyses were conducted to evaluate network performance. For a hydraulic simulation, EPANET-based MATLAB code was developed, and a pressure-driven analysis approach was adopted to represent an unsteady-state network. To demonstrate the constructed surrogate model, the actual water distribution network of A-city, South Korea, was adopted, and the network map was reconstructed from the geographic information system data. The surrogate model was able to predict network performance within a 3% relative error at trained epicenters in drastically reduced time. In addition, the accuracy of the surrogate model was estimated to within 3% relative error (5% for network performance lower than 0.2) at different epicenters to verify the robustness of the epicenter location. Therefore, it is concluded that ANN-based surrogate model can be utilized as an alternative model for efficient seismic risk assessment to within 5% of relative error.

Development of the Assessment Indicators for Railway Safety

  • Song, Bo-Young;Moon, Dae-Seop;Lee, Hi Sung
    • International Journal of Railway
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.175-181
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    • 2012
  • This study proposes a model for railway safety assessment with which the safety of whole railway system can be evaluated. The purpose of the assessment model is to generate safety indicators which quantitatively represent the degree of railway safety. Safety indicators were proposed as three indicators according to their functions; accident indicators, safety management indicators, and safety culture indicators. This paper describes the first result on the safety target which will be a key starting point toward the development of safety assessment model. It is recommended that the safety target to be composed of several sub-targets are apportioned to constituent components. It is concluded that the classification of safety target has influence on deciding components or attributes that constitute each sub-indicators; accident indicators, safety management indicators, and safety culture indicators. Based on this study, a railway safety assessment model will be developed in the following study.

An Analysis of Accident Causes in Construction project by Using Insured Claim Payouts (건설공사보험 손실액을 활용한 사고원인 분석연구)

  • Yu, Yeong-Jin;Kim, Sang-Ho;Yang, Sungpil;Kim, Ji-Myong;Son, Kiyoung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2015.11a
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    • pp.60-61
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    • 2015
  • In recent years, the accidents in construction projects are continuously increasing due to their complexity and variety. However, few studies have been conducted regarding the risk prediction model and the database of risk assessment in construction projects. To address of these issues, the objective of this study is to analyze the accident causes by using insured claim payouts of insurance companies. First, the descriptive analysis of accidents causes is conducted according to scheduling rate, season, and total construction costs. Second, the correlation analysis is conducted between accidents causes and total construction costs. In the future, the risk assessment model can be developed to quantify the accident causes in construction projects to estimate claim payouts of insurance companies.

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Assessment and Access Control for Ubiquitous Environments

  • Diep, Nguyen Ngoc;Lee, Sung-Young;Lee, Young-Koo;Lee, Hee-Jo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.1107-1109
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    • 2007
  • Context-based access control is an emerging approach for modeling adaptive solution, making access control management more flexible and powerful. However, these strategies are inadequate for the increased flexibility and performance that ubiquitous computing environment requires because such systems can not utilize effectively all benefit from this environment. In this paper, we propose a solution based on risk to make use of many context parameters in order to provide good decisions for a safety environment. We design a new model for risk assessment in ubiquitous computing environment and use risk as a key component in decision-making process in our access control model.

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A Study on the Development of Preliminary Hazard Analysis Model for Railway System (철도시스템 기본위험분석모델 개발 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Wang Jong-Bae;Park Chan-Woo;Park Joo-Nam
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2005.11a
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2005
  • To improve safety management of railway and cope with the factors to threat technical and social safety, we need to establish railway safety management system based on analysis of hazards and assessment of risk for railway system. So we have to conduct PHA(Preliminary Hazard Analysis) first to understand weak points and factors to possibly threat safety using analysis of related data such as past accident/incident data and safety regulation and classification standards of hazards/causes of railway accidents. Therefore in this research, we led types/dangerous events/causes of risks/factors of risks from hazard log developed based on railway accident classification and hazards of railway accident. PHA model for domestic railway system will be used in risk analysis and risk assessment of railway accident.

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