• 제목/요약/키워드: risk assessment model

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국내외 소비자 제품 노출평가모델을 이용한 노출량 비교 (Comparison of Exposure Estimates Using Consumer Exposure Assessment Models and the Korean Exposure Algorithm)

  • 강소현;임미영;이기영
    • 한국환경보건학회지
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    • 제50권1호
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    • pp.43-53
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    • 2024
  • Background: Exposure assessment is an important part of risk assessment for consumer products. Exposure models are used when estimating consumer exposures by considering exposure routes, subjects, and circumstances. These models differ based on their tiers, types, and target populations. Consequently, exposure estimates may vary between models. Objectives: This study aimed to compare the results of different exposure models using identical exposure factors. Methods: Chemical exposure from consumer products was calculated using four consumer exposure assessment models: Targeted Risk Assessment 3.1, Consumer Exposure Model 2.1 (CEM), ConsExpo web 1.1.1, and the Korean Exposure Algorithm (primary and detailed) issued by the Ministry of Environment, No. 972 (MOE). The same exposure factors were used in each model to calculate inhalation and dermal exposures to acetaldehyde, d-limonene, and naphthalene in all-purpose cleaners, leather coating sprays, and sealants. Results: In the results, TRA provided the highest estimate. Generally, MOE (detailed), CEM and ConsExpo showed lower exposures. The inhalation exposure for leather coating spray showed the largest differences between models, with differences reaching up to 1.2×107 times. Since identical inputs were used for the calculations, it is likely that the models significantly influenced the estimated results. Conclusions: Despite using the same exposure factors to calculate dermal and inhalation exposures, the results varied substantially based on the model's exposure algorithm. Therefore, selecting an exposure model for assessing consumer products should be done with careful consideration.

하수의 농업적 재이용에 따른 논 담수 내 미생물 위해성 평가 (Microbial Risk Assessment in Reclaimed Wastewater Irrigation on a Paddy Field)

  • 이한필;윤춘경;정광욱;손장원
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.69-75
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    • 2009
  • Water stress has become a major concern in agriculture. Korea suffers from limited agricultural water supply, and wastewater reuse has been recommended as an alternative solution. A study was performed to examine the effects of microorganism concentration in the ponded-water of a paddy rice field with reclaimed-water irrigation for evaluating the microbial risk to farmers and neighborhood children. Most epidemiological studies were performed based on an upland field, and they may not directly applicable to paddy fields. Beta-Poisson model was used to estimate the microbial risk of pathogen ingestion. Their risk value increased significantly high level after irrigation and precipitation. It implies that agricultural activities such as plowing, and fertilizing, and precipitation need be practiced a few days after irrigation considering health risks. The results about field application of the microbial risk assessment using E. coli showed difference according to monitoring time and treatment plot. Result of the microbial risk assessment showed that risk values of ground-water and reclaimed secondary wastewater irrigation were lower than directly use of wastewater treatment plants' effluent. This paper should be viewed as a first step in the application of quantitative microbial risk assessment of E. coli to wastewater reuse in a paddy rice farming.

정량적 방법을 이용한 위험분석 방법론 연구 (Methodology of Analyze the Risk Using Method of Determinated Quantity)

  • 박중길
    • 정보처리학회논문지C
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    • 제13C권7호
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    • pp.851-858
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    • 2006
  • 위험분석은 조직의 특성을 반영하여 자산분석, 위협분석, 취약성 분석을 통하여 조직의 주요 자산에 대한 위험도를 분석하고 적절한 대응책을 제시하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 하지만, 기존의 TTA 위험분석 방법론은 전체의 개략적인 흐름은 제시하고 있으나, 각 단계에서의 구체적인 행위를 제시하지 못하고 있다. 즉 위협분석 단계에서는 어떠한 기준으로 각 위협을 어떻게 분류하여야 하는가하는 문제와 분류된 위협을 어떤 방식으로 위험도 계산에 반영해야하는가에 대한 구체적인 제시가 미흡한 현실이다. 또한 취약성 분석 단계에서는 발견되는 취약성을 어떠한 항목을 기준으로 분류하여야 하며, 발견되는 각 자산별 취약성을 위험분석의 위험도 산정에 어떤 과정을 통하여 반영해야하는가에 대한 제시 역시 미흡하다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 기존 TTA의 방법론에서 제시하고 있지 않은 위협분석과 취약성 분석 단계에서의 정량적인 평가가 가능한 방법론을 제시한다. 이를 위하여 본 논문에서는 자산 가치 평가에 조직의 비즈니스 프로세스를 기준으로 업무 영역 분류를 통한 유형자산 가치분석과 무형자산 가치분석을 수행하고 이를 바탕으로 취약성을 분석하고 위험도를 계산하였다 이러한 방법은 국내 정보시스템의 현실을 반영하고, 환경적 취약성과 기술적 취약성의 영향력을 반영하여, 조직의 자산별로 수치화된 위험도 산정을 가능하게 한다. 이는 위험분석 평가 대상조직의 자산별 위험도 분석이 가능하게 한다.

전사적 Risk Management System의 개념적 모형에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Conceptual model of Enterprise Risk Management System)

  • 윤승옥;이창호
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.113-121
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    • 2012
  • The important elements and conditions to improve corporate competitiveness are customer development, new product development, sales increase, net profit increase, and other factors. Even if those competitiveness elements are well prepared, obstacles may exist. In this paper, we examined the risk, the deadliest obstacle that can affect corporate. We selected the risk factors that exist in functional categories in the system connected complicatedly and variously by organizational value chain of corporate, and examined the conceptual model of Enterprise Risk Management System based on the precedent studies.

u-헬스케어시스템의 정보보안 체계 확보를 위한 5단계 보안위험도 평가모델 설계 (A Study on Five Levels of Security Risk Assessment Model Design for Ensuring the u-Healthcare Information System)

  • 노시춘
    • 융합보안논문지
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.11-17
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    • 2013
  • 모든 u-헬스케어 시스템은 보안 취약점을 가지고 있다. 이 취약점은 로컬(local) 또는 네트워크(network) 상에서 잠재적인 위험이 된다. 의료정보 기술의 Smart 환경, Ad-hoc networking, 무선통신 환경은, u-헬스케어 보안 취약성을 증가시키는 주요 요인이다. u-헬스케어 의료정보시스템 도메인은 사용자단말 구간, 공중통신망 인프라구간, 네트워킹구간, 인트라넷구간으로 구분된다. 의료정보시스템 도메인별을 구분하여 취약점을 평가하는 이유는 도메인별로 취약점에 대한 대처방법이 다르기 때문이다. u-헬스케어시스템 5단계의 보안위험도 평가체계는 도메인별 보안취약성 진단체계를 설계하여 보안대책을 강구하기 위해 필요하다. 제안하는 모델을 사용할 경우 현재까지 막연하게 진행 되어온 USN 기반 의료정보네트워크 보안취약성 진단대책을 좀 더 체계적으로 수행할 수 있는 모형을 제공한다.

소스 종류를 달리한 햄 주먹밥에서의 Staphylococcus aureus 성장예측모델 개발 및 위해평가 (Development of a Predictive Model and Risk Assessment for the Growth of Staphylococcus aureus in Ham Rice Balls Mixed with Different Sauces)

  • 오수진;여성순;김미숙
    • 대한영양사협회학술지
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.30-43
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    • 2019
  • This study compared the predictive models for the growth kinetics of Staphylococcus aureus in ham rice balls. In addition, a semi-quantitative risk assessment of S. aureus on ham rice balls was conducted using FDA-iRISK 4.0. The rice was rounded with chopped ham, which was mixed with mayonnaise (SHM), soy sauce (SHS), or gochujang (SHG), and was contaminated artificially with approximately $2.5{\log}\;CFU{\cdot}g^{-1}$ of S. aureus. The inoculated rice balls were then stored at $7^{\circ}C$, $15^{\circ}C$, and $25^{\circ}C$, and the number of viable S. aureus was counted. The lag phases duration (LPD) and maximum specific growth rate (SGR) were calculated using a Baranyi model as a primary model. The growth parameters were analyzed using the polynomial equation as a function of temperature. The LPD values of S. aureus decreased with increasing temperature in SHS and SHG. On the other hand, those in SHM did not show any trend with increasing temperature. The SGR positively correlated with temperature. Equations for LPD and SGR were developed and validated using $R^2$ values, which ranged from 0.9929 to 0.9999. In addition, the total DALYs (disability adjusted life years) per year in the ham rice balls with soy sauce and gochujang was greater than mayonnaise. These results could be used to calculate the expected number of illnesses, and set the hazard management method taking the DALY value for public health into account.

로지스틱 회귀분석모델을 활용한 평창군 진부 지역의 산사태 재해의 인명 위험 평가 (Life Risk Assessment of Landslide Disaster in Jinbu Area Using Logistic Regression Model)

  • 라하누마 빈테 라시드 우르미;알-마문;장동호
    • 한국지형학회지
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    • 제27권2호
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    • pp.65-80
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    • 2020
  • This paper deals with risk assessment of life in a landslide-prone area by a GIS-based modeling method. Landslide susceptibility maps can provide a probability of landslide prone areas to mitigate or proper control this problems and to take any development plan and disaster management. A landslide inventory map of the study area was prepared based on past historical information and aerial photography analysis. A total of 550 landslides have been counted at the whole study area. The extracted landslides were randomly selected and divided into two different groups, 50% of the landslides were used for model calibration and the other were used for validation purpose. Eleven causative factors (continuous and thematic) such as slope, aspect, curvature, topographic wetness index, elevation, forest type, forest crown density, geology, land-use, soil drainage, and soil texture were used in hazard analysis. The correlation between landslides and these factors, pixels were divided into several classes and frequency ratio was also extracted. Eventually, a landslide susceptibility map was constructed using a logistic regression model based on entire events. Moreover, the landslide susceptibility map was plotted with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculated the area under the curve (AUC) and tried to extract a success rate curve. Based on the results, logistic regression produced an 85.18% accuracy, so we believed that the model was reliable and acceptable for the landslide susceptibility analysis on the study area. In addition, for risk assessment, vulnerability scale were added for social thematic data layer. The study area predictive landslide affected pixels 2,000 and 5,000 were also calculated for making a probability table. In final calculation, the 2,000 predictive landslide affected pixels were assumed to run. The total population causalities were estimated as 7.75 person that was relatively close to the actual number published in Korean Annual Disaster Report, 2006.

화학공장의 염소 누출에 의한 피해 영향 모델링 (Damage Effects Modeling by Chlorine Leaks of Chemical Plants)

  • 정경삼;백은선
    • 한국화재소방학회논문지
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    • 제32권3호
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    • pp.76-87
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    • 2018
  • 본 연구는 화학공장에서 원료 및 중간재로 많이 사용되는 Heavy Gas인 염소를 화학설비의 가압 염소포화액체 저장탱크에서 2상 흐름 연속누출에 대한 유해위험거리를 정량적으로 예측하기 위한 피해영향 모델링이다. 피해예측을 위한 평가방법과 사고영향평가모델들을 기준으로 액체염소 저장용기의 누출사고에서 사고결과에 미치는 최적의 변수를 나타나기 위해 조업조건을 표준조건으로 하였다. 장외영향평가의 위험성 평가에 사용되는 것으로 USEPA와 NOAA에서 공동 개발된 대기확산 모델인 ALOHA (V5.4.4) 모델을 사용하였다. 화학물질을 대량으로 제조 및 취급하고 있는 여수 국가산업단지를 연구 대상지역으로하여, 기상변수와 공정변수들을 설정하여 시나리오별로 모델링을 하여 누출사고에 대한 특성을 도출하였다. 가우시안 확산모델에 따른 관심지점의 농도 추정치를 산출하였고, ALOHA 모델링 결과 염소 확산에 의한 유해위험거리는 대기온도가 높고 풍속의 감소와 대기 안정도가 안정할수록 증가 하는 것으로 분석되었다.

다중이용시설의 폭발물 테러위험도 평가를 위한 건축계획요소 체계화 연구 (Classification of Architectural Design Elements for the Risk Assessment of Bomb Attack of Multi-Use Buildings)

  • 강경연;박소연;허홍;이경훈
    • 대한건축학회논문집:계획계
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    • 제34권7호
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    • pp.47-57
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    • 2018
  • As a preliminary step for developing vulnerability assessment model of terrorism, this study aims to deduce and classify architectural design elements of multi-use buildings to protect them from terrorism using explosives. For these objectives, eleven domestic and foreign guidelines of anti-terrorism, including RVS which is one of the commonly used tools for assessing vulnerability to terrorism, were analyzed. As results, 2 scenarios of explosive attack, 4 layers of defense, and 58 architectural design elements for risk assessment of terrorism were deduced. And the design elements were categorized into 18 groups based on their purpose and function to take into account the supplementary effects among them. Then, the design measures applicable for each element were classified into several grades on the basis of its protection or risk level. Lastly, 11 multi-use buildings were selected and investigated how the elements suggested in this study were applied to them.