• 제목/요약/키워드: risk assessment model

검색결과 1,066건 처리시간 0.03초

Future drought risk assessment under CMIP6 GCMs scenarios

  • Thi, Huong-Nguyen;Kim, Jin-Guk;Fabian, Pamela Sofia;Kang, Dong-Won;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.305-305
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    • 2022
  • A better approach for assessing meteorological drought occurrences is increasingly important in mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change, as well as strategies for developing early warning systems. The present study defines meteorological droughts as a period with an abnormal precipitation deficit based on monthly precipitation data of 18 gauging stations for the Han River watershed in the past (1974-2015). This study utilizes a Bayesian parameter estimation approach to analyze the effects of climate change on future drought (2025-2065) in the Han River Basin using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) with four bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5 scenario. Given that drought is defined by several dependent variables, the evaluation of this phenomenon should be based on multivariate analysis. Two main characteristics of drought (severity and duration) were extracted from precipitation anomalies in the past and near-future periods using the copula function. Three parameters of the Archimedean family copulas, Frank, Clayton, and Gumbel copula, were selected to fit with drought severity and duration. The results reveal that the lower parts and middle of the Han River basin have faced severe drought conditions in the near future. Also, the bivariate analysis using copula showed that, according to both indicators, the study area would experience droughts with greater severity and duration in the future as compared with the historical period.

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Image-based Soft Drink Type Classification and Dietary Assessment System Using Deep Convolutional Neural Network with Transfer Learning

  • Rubaiya Hafiz;Mohammad Reduanul Haque;Aniruddha Rakshit;Amina khatun;Mohammad Shorif Uddin
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • 제24권2호
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    • pp.158-168
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    • 2024
  • There is hardly any person in modern times who has not taken soft drinks instead of drinking water. The rate of people taking soft drinks being surprisingly high, researchers around the world have cautioned from time to time that these drinks lead to weight gain, raise the risk of non-communicable diseases and so on. Therefore, in this work an image-based tool is developed to monitor the nutritional information of soft drinks by using deep convolutional neural network with transfer learning. At first, visual saliency, mean shift segmentation, thresholding and noise reduction technique, collectively known as 'pre-processing' are adopted to extract the location of drinks region. After removing backgrounds and segment out only the desired area from image, we impose Discrete Wavelength Transform (DWT) based resolution enhancement technique is applied to improve the quality of image. After that, transfer learning model is employed for the classification of drinks. Finally, nutrition value of each drink is estimated using Bag-of-Feature (BoF) based classification and Euclidean distance-based ratio calculation technique. To achieve this, a dataset is built with ten most consumed soft drinks in Bangladesh. These images were collected from imageNet dataset as well as internet and proposed method confirms that it has the ability to detect and recognize different types of drinks with an accuracy of 98.51%.

HyRAM+를 이용한 수소 누출 시뮬레이터 구현 (Inplementation of a Hydrogen Leakage Simulator with HyRAM+)

  • 황성호
    • 문화기술의 융합
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.551-557
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    • 2024
  • 수소는 청정, 무탄소, 고에너지등 다양한 특징을 가진 재생에너지원으로 국제적으로 '미래에너지'로 인정받고 있다. 수소에너지 산업의 급속한 발전과 더불어 수소 수요를 충족시키기 위하여 더 많은 수소 인프라가 필요한 실정이다. 그러나 수소 인프라 사고가 빈번한 발생함으로 인해, 수소산업 발전에 걸림돌이 되고 있다. 미국 Sandia National Laboratories에서 개발한 HyRAM+는 수소충전소를 포함한 다양한 저장 응용 분야에 대한 수소 안전 평가와 관련된 데이터와 방법을 통합하는 소프트웨어 툴킷이다. HyRAM+의 물리 모드는 수소충전소 컴포넌트에 따라 수소누출 결과를 모사하여 가스 플룸 분산, 제트 프레임 온도와 궤적 그리고 복사 열속 등을 그래프로 나타낸다. 본 논문에서는 강원도 삼척시에 있는 수소충전소를 대상으로하여 HyRAM+ 소프트웨어를 이용하여 수소 누출 데이터를 추출하였다. HyRAM+에서 추출한 데이터를 이용하여 수소 누출(Leakage) 발생 시뮬레이터를 개발하였다. 데이터베이스와 그라파나(Grafana)를 이용하여 시뮬레이터에서 발생한 데이터를 보여주는 대쉬보드(Dashboard)로 구현하였다.

금속성 분진폭발의 영향 분석을 위한 기반구축에 관한 연구 (A Study of Establishment of the Infrastructure for Consequence Analysis of Metallic Dust Explosion)

  • 장창봉;이경진;문명환;백주홍;고재욱
    • 한국가스학회지
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.84-91
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    • 2017
  • 다양한 산업분야의 첨단제품들의 기능향상이나 디자인 등을 위해 알루미늄이나 마그네슘과 같은 가연성 금속의 사용량이 증가하고 있으며, 이러한 금속의 가공공정의 증가로 인한 금속분진이 발생할 가능성이 증가되며 이는 금속분진으로 인한 폭발사고의 증가로 이어지고 있다. 금속분진에 의한 폭발의 경우 고체 및 열분해에 의해 발생된 증기의 혼합 상태에서의 연소라는 점에서 실험적인 해석이 가스폭발이나 증기운 연소에 비해 매우 복잡하기 때문에 국내 외적으로 분진폭발에 대한 연구가 현재로서는 부족한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 가연성 금속분진의 폭발에 대한 리스크 분석을 위한 기반구조를 마련하고, 이러한 기반을 토대로 효율적인 분석방법을 제시하기 위해 분진폭발에 대한 폭발이론과 특성에 대하여 정리 및 제시하였으며, 금속성분진 별 폭발특성을 데이터베이스화 하여 분진폭발에 대한 리스크 분석과 연구에 사용할 수 있는 기반을 마련하였다.

CBRN 위협에 대비한 사후관리체계 강화방안 (A Study on Strengthening Consequence Management System Against CBRN Threats)

  • 권혁신;곽민수;김관헌
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제40권4호
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    • pp.429-435
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    • 2020
  • 북한은 2017년 6차 핵실험 이후 스스로 핵 무력의 완성을 선언하였다. 한반도 비핵화를 위한 국내외의 노력에도 불구하고 그 해결전망은 밝지 않다. 북한의 WMD위협을 억제하기 위한 정치·외교적 노력과 함께 유사시 예상되는 '재앙적 상황'에 대비한 사후관리 능력의 강화가 요구된다. 이에 따라 본 연구는 CBRN 위협에 대비한 사후관리 강화방안을 제시하기 위해 수행되었다. 연구모델은 국가 차원의 재난관리 계획발전모델 중 미 국토안보부가 채택하여 활용 중인 THIRA 프로세스를 일부 보완하여 활용하였다. 한국의 사후관리 체계는 재난에 대비한 위험관리와 위기관리를 포괄한다. 이 체계는 전·평시 CBRN의 확산 또는 사용의 억제, 위협의 대응, 예상피해 최소화 등을 목적으로 민·관·군 통합방위작전의 형태로 수행된다. 예방단계에는 CBRN의 개념과 사후관리 절차를 국가관리체계 속에 반영, 통합경보체계의 보완, 대피시설의 준비 그리고 통합훈련체계의 구축 등이 요구된다. 대비단계에는 관련 법규와 매뉴얼의 정비, 정부 조직의 정비와 수행절차의 발전, 통합대응이 가능한 현장 지원체계의 구축, 그리고 주기적인 훈련 등이 필수적이다. 대응단계에는 응급처치와 구호를 위한 의료지원체계의 정상가동, 제염시설의 설치 및 운영, 그리고 피해평가 및 통제지침의 발전이 중요하다. 복구단계에서는 안정화 평가 기준 및 절차의 발전, 피해복구에 필요한 자원의 확보 및 운용, 그리고 지역방위군과 향토예비군, 민방위가 연계된 지역피해복구 역량 강화가 필요하다.

요양병원 입원 알츠하이머 치매노인의 재원일수 결정요인 분석 (Determinants of Length of Stay in Geriatric Hospitals - Focused on Alzheimer Dementia's Inpatients)

  • 방효중;이광수
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제13권12호
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    • pp.900-909
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    • 2013
  • 본 연구의 목적은 요양병원에 입원한 알츠하이머 치매환자의 재원기간에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석하는 것이다. 분석 자료는 건강보험심사평가원의 2009년 환자표본데이터를 사용하여 추출하였고, 요양병원에 입원한 65세 이상의 노인이면서 알츠하이머 치매로 입원한 178개 병원의 총 538명을 분석에 이용되었다. 요인은 환자 측 변수와 요양병원의 구조특성변수이며, 환자특성변수는 성별, 연령, 중증도를 사용하였고, 중증도는 요양병원 수가처치 코드를 이용하여 5개의 그룹(의료고도, 의료중도, 문제행동군, 인지장애군, 의료경도)으로 분류하였다. 구조특성변수는 병상수, 의사수, 간호사수, 그리고 CT 보유수를 연구모형에 포함하여 분석하였다. 다중회귀분석결과에서 병원의 구조변수는 환자의 재원기간에 통계학적으로 유의한 영향은 없었다. 환자변수 중에서 중증도의 경우 의료고도와 문제행동군에서 통계학적으로 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났으나 모두 음의 관계를 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 중증도가 높은 의료고도에서 레퍼런스 그룹인 의료중도에 대해 양의 관계를 가질 것이라는 예상과는 상반된 결과였다. 이러한 결과는 알츠하이머 치매환자의 특성과 병원의 구조적특성이 환자의 재원일수 변이에 큰 영향을 미치지 않는다는 가능성을 시사하고 있다. 요양병원은 일반 급성기 병원과는 다른 환자의 질병 특성을 지니고 있고, 수가 지불체계에 대해서도 다른 특성을 가진다. 특히 최근 대두되는 '사회적 입원' 문제와 같이 환자의 사회경제적인 요인에 의한 변이가 대두되는 시점에서, 재원기간에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 사회경제적인 요인에 대한 연구가 지속적으로 필요할 것으로 보인다.

Assessment of Relationship between Fyn-related Kinase Gene Polymorphisms and Overweight/Obesity in Korean Population

  • Jung, Mi-Young;Kim, Bum-Shik;Kim, Youn-Jung;Koh, In-Song;Chung, Joo-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Physiology and Pharmacology
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    • 제12권2호
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    • pp.83-87
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    • 2008
  • The fyn-related kinase (FRK) belongs to the tyrosine kinase family of protein kinases. Recent studies have shown that Frk affects pancreatic beta cell number during embryogenesis and promotes beta cell cytotoxic signals in response to streptozotocin. To investigate the genetic association between FRK polymorphisms and the risk of obesity in Korean population, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the FRK gene region were selected and analyzed. The body mass index (BMI) was calculated, and biochemical data (systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, hemoglobin A1C, triglyceride, total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein, and low density lipoprotein) of blood sample from each subject were also measured. One hundred fifty five healthy control and 204 overweight/obesity subjects were recruited. Genotype frequencies of six SNPs [rs6568920 (+8391G>A), rs3756772 (+56780A>G), rs3798234 (+75687C>T), rs9384970 (+68506G>A), rs1933739 (+72978G>A), and rs9400883 (+75809A>G)] in the FRK gene were determined by Affymetrix Targeted Genotyping Chip data. According to the classification of Korean Society for the Study of Obesity, control (BMI 18 to < 23) and overweight/obesity (BMI$\geq$23) subjects were recruited. For the analysis of genetic data, EM algorithm, SNPStats, Haploview, HapAnalyzer, SNPAnalyzer, and Helixtree programs were used. Multiple logistic regression analysis (codominant, dominant, and recessive models) was performed. Age and gender as covariates were adjusted. For biochemical data, Student's t test was used. The mean value of BMI in the control and overweigh/obesity groups was 21.1${\pm}$1.2 (mean${\pm}$SD) and 25.6${\pm}$2.0, respectively. All biochemical data of the overweight/obesity group were statistically significance, compared with the control group. Among six SNPs, two linkage disequilibrium (LD) blocks were discovered. One block consisted of rs1933739 and rs9400883, and the other comprised rs3756772 and rs3798234. One SNP (rs9384970, +68506G>A) showed an association with overweight/obesity in the codominant model (p=0.03). Interestingly, the AA genotype distribution in the overweight/obesity group (n=7, 3.5%) was higher than those in the control group (n=1, 0.6%), which is not found in either Japanese or Chinese subjects. Therefore, the AA genotype of rs9384970 may be a risk factor for development of obesity in Korean population. The results suggest that FRK may be associated with overweight/obesity in Korean population.

Health Status of Dependent Older People and Pattern of Care among Caregivers: A Case Study of Hong Ha Health Promoting Hospital, Lampang, Thailand

  • Wicha, Sumitra;Saovapha, Benjaporn;Sripattarangkul, Sirirat;Manop, Natchapan;Muankonkaew, Thanakrit;Srirungrueang, Supha
    • Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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    • 제5권3호
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    • pp.228-249
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    • 2018
  • In 2015, the population of elderly people in Thailand was 16% of the total population and is predicted to be over 20% by 2021 and nearly 28% by 2031. The increase of the elderly population in Thailand has also increased the proportion of dependent elderly people, and caring for them poses many challenges for both families and the government. This descriptive method research aimed to survey the health status of dependent older people in the rural community of Lampang province in northern Thailand. The participants consisted of 62 older people and 62 primary family caregivers from Hong Ha Health Promoting Hospital, Lampang, Thailand (totaling 124 people). The researchers assessed the health status of older people and their activities of daily living (ADL). In addition, researchers assessed the health status and stress of caregivers. All the participants were interviewed about their experiences with caregiving. The results showed that most of the older respondents were female with an average age of 78.15 years. Based on the ADL assessment, 50 of the 62 older persons were homebound while the rest were bedridden. The majority of older people had chronic or long-term conditions that required hospitalization from time to time. Their frequent health problems included oral disorders such as tooth decay or caries/gum disease/no teeth, reduced sight, psychological disorders, knee pain and risk of falling, low BMI, risk of malnutrition, and urinary leakage and incontinence (58.06%, 66.13%, 62.90%, 70.97%, 38.71%, 66.13%, and 37.10%, respectively). Usual care provided by the family members included personal hygiene care, food preparation and feeding, medication management, housekeeping and organizing necessary equipment, supply of needed equipment, prevention of falls, helping with travel for medical checkups and treatment, and providing companionship. Families experienced shortages of medical supplies, daily use equipment, lack of employment, inadequate income, and difficulty accessing health care services due to lack of transportation. Some caregivers experienced caregiving stress related to a lack of social interactions as well as routine caregiving activities. Families need different types of support in order to promote the well-being of older people and caregivers. This highlights the need for a community participation model for the care of older people in order to reflect sustainable long-term outcomes.

Prognostic Evaluation of Categorical Platelet-based Indices Using Clustering Methods Based on the Monte Carlo Comparison for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

  • Guo, Pi;Shen, Shun-Li;Zhang, Qin;Zeng, Fang-Fang;Zhang, Wang-Jian;Hu, Xiao-Min;Zhang, Ding-Mei;Peng, Bao-Gang;Hao, Yuan-Tao
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권14호
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    • pp.5721-5727
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    • 2014
  • Objectives: To evaluate the performance of clustering methods used in the prognostic assessment of categorical clinical data for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients in China, and establish a predictable prognostic nomogram for clinical decisions. Materials and Methods: A total of 332 newly diagnosed HCC patients treated with hepatic resection during 2006-2009 were enrolled. Patients were regularly followed up at outpatient clinics. Clustering methods including the Average linkage, k-modes, fuzzy k-modes, PAM, CLARA, protocluster, and ROCK were compared by Monte Carlo simulation, and the optimal method was applied to investigate the clustering pattern of the indices including platelet count, platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and serum aspartate aminotransferase activity/platelet count ratio index (APRI). Then the clustering variable, age group, tumor size, number of tumor and vascular invasion were studied in a multivariable Cox regression model. A prognostic nomogram was constructed for clinical decisions. Results: The ROCK was best in both the overlapping and non-overlapping cases performed to assess the prognostic value of platelet-based indices. Patients with categorical platelet-based indices significantly split across two clusters, and those with high values, had a high risk of HCC recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 1.42, 95% CI 1.09-1.86; p<0.01). Tumor size, number of tumor and blood vessel invasion were also associated with high risk of HCC recurrence (all p< 0.01). The nomogram well predicted HCC patient survival at 3 and 5 years. Conclusions: A cluster of platelet-based indices combined with other clinical covariates could be used for prognosis evaluation in HCC.

A Study for the Appropriateness of the Different Reference Points in the Analysis of Working Posture

  • Kim, Day-Sung;Kim, Chol-Hong
    • 대한인간공학회지
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    • 제30권5호
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    • pp.637-644
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    • 2011
  • Objective & Background: When applying various evaluation tools that analyze work posture risk through observation, accurate measurement of body flexion angle is very important. Method: This study investigated differences and appropriateness of 5 different existing reference points commonly used in the analysis of the work posture. Twenty five ergonomist and trained professionals were participated in this study. A Same flexion angle was utilized for the evaluation of risk assessment of musculoskeletal disorders using five different reference points to investigate the degree of difference between them. To investigate how different the observers' preferred flexion angle measuring methods were compared to the ISO 11226 Reference Posture, a virtual body model was constructed using the Poser 6.0 program. Six types of body flexion postures were constructed, and since neck flexion differs according to body angle, five types of neck flexion postures were constructed with the trunk bending $20^{\circ}$ forward, making up a total of 30 virtual flexion postures. Results: Results showed that the observers used personally preferred reference points instead of reference points recommend in the evaluation tools. Also the results revealed the their seems to be 6 types of flexion angle for the trunk and 11 types of measurement methods for the neck flexion angle in the form of personally preferred reference points. The results showed that a mean difference of $14^{\circ}$($4{\sim}23^{\circ}$) occurred in the trunk, and a mean difference of $20^{\circ}$($-8{\sim}51^{\circ}$) occurred in the neck. To increase accuracy when using the 5 evaluation tools in combination, the ISO 11226 standards, observers' preferred flexion posture standards, and common flexion posture standards of the evaluation tools were compared with the reference points of the 5 evaluation tools. Results showed considerable variance in angle difference for each evaluation tool. Conclusion: According to the results of this study, considering the angle difference between the flexion angle reference points of the evaluation tool and the reference points selected by the observers, it is concluded that instead of personally preferred reference points, the standardized reference points to enhance the accuracy and the objectivity. Application: The result of this study can be used as reference guide to develop the standardized reference point in the future.