• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
• /
• v.41 no.8
• /
• pp.619-624
• /
• 2013

To predict the probabilistic service life, statistical factors should be included to consider the uncertainty of parameters. Generally the probabilistic analysis is one of the common methods to account the uncertainty of parameters on the structural failure. In order to apply probabilistic analysis on the deterministic life analysis, it would be necessary to introduce Probability of Failure(PoF) and conduct risk assessment. In this work, we have studied probabilistic risk assessment of aircraft structures by using PoF approach. To achieve this goal, the Bayesian method was utilized to model PoF estimation since this method is known as the proper method to express the uncertainty of parameters. A series of proof tests were also conducted in order to verify the result of PoF estimation. The results from this efforts showed that the PoF estimation model can calculate quantitatively the value of PoF. Furthermore effectiveness of risk assessment approach for the aircraft structures was also demonstrated.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
• /
• v.15 no.2
• /
• pp.1-12
• /
• 2022

Based on major safety-related statistics of cities, provinces, counties, and districts across the country, social disasters manage regional safety index ratings in six areas(traffic accidents, fires, crime, life safety, suicide, and infectious diseases), and natural disasters operate a management system. The current application of the regional safety assessment of natural disasters is very insufficient to evaluate the local risk of natural disasters up to the Eup, Myeon, and Dong level, and it is marked too engineering and difficult for the general public to use. The purpose of this study is to present Korea's natural disaster local risk assessment as an improvement model that extends to the sub-unit of Eup, Myeon, and Dong, using the local risk assessment model mixed with natural and social disasters.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
• /
• v.4 no.1
• /
• pp.19-28
• /
• 1995

A rainfall runoff model described in this paper which is based on Basin- wide Ecological Model(BAWEM) calculates the fate of afro-chemicals in a watershed located of golf links. The rainfall runoff coefficients of afro-chemicals, which are the dominant parameters to predict the movement of agro-chemicals from soil and turfgrass to downstream water, are estimated. Also, the model is used to estimate the level of health risks the residents around golf links are exposed to. The fidelity of rainfall runoff model of afro-chemicals was validated by the observed data obtained during rainy period. The calculated results from this model were found to be in the same order of that of the observed. The rainfall runoff coefficients of four agro-chemicals used in golf links were 5.4$\times$$10^{-3}$, 1.9$\times$$10^{-3}$, 3.0$\times$$10^{-4}$ and 4.4$\times$$10^{-3}$ for flutolanil, isoprothiolane, chlorpyrifos and simazine, respectively The health risk level to the residents around golf links is evaluated to be rather low:the ratio of estimated dose through drinking water to the 10% of ADI(Acceptable Daily Intake) value or VSD for 10-a life time risk varied in the range of 0.005~0.04 and 0.003~0.11, respectively, for both the annual mean and maximum monthly mean cases.

• Toxicological Research
• /
• v.18 no.1
• /
• pp.13-22
• /
• 2002

In Korea, 2,320 tonnes of acetanilide were mostly wed as intermediates for synthesis in phar-maceuticals or additives in synthesizing hydrogen peroxide, varnishes, polymers and rubber. Only small amount of 120 kg were wed as a stabilizer for hydrogen peroxide solution for hair colouring agents in 1998. Readily available environmental or human exposure data do not exist in Korea at the present time. However, potential human exposures from drinking water, food, ambient water and in work places are expected to be negligible because this chemical is produced in the closed system in only one company in Korea and the processing factory is equipped with local ventilation and air filtering system. Acetanilide could be distributed mainly to water based on EQC model. This substance is readily biodegradable and its bioaccumulation is low. Acute toxicity of acetanilide is low since the L $D_{50}$ of oral exposure in rats is 1,959 mg/kg bw. The chemical is not irritating to skin, but slightly irritating to the eyes of rabbits. horn repeated dose toxicity, the adverse effects in rats were red pulp hyperplasia of spleen, bone marrow hyperplasia of femur and decreased hemoglobin, hematocrit and mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration. The LOAEL for repeated dose toxicity in rats was 22 mg/kg/day for both sexes. Acetanilide is not considered to be genotoxic. In a reproductive/developmental toxicity study, no treatment-related changes in precoital time and rate of copulation, impregnation, pregnancy were shown in all treated groups. The NOAELs for reproduction and developmental toxicity (off-spring toxicity) are considered to be 200 mg/kg bw/day and 67 mg/kg bw/day, respectively. Ecotoxicity data has been generated in a limited number of aquatic species of algae (72 hr- $E_{b}$ $C_{50}$; 13.5 mg/l), daphnid (48hr-E $C_{50}$ > 100 mg/l) and fish (Oryzias latipes, 96hr-L $C_{50}$; 100 mg/l). Form the acute toxicity values, the predicted no effect concentration (PNEC) of 0.135 mg/1 was derived win an assessment factor of 100. On the basis of these data, acetanilide was suggested as currently of low priority for further post-SIDS work in OECD.in OECD.D.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
• /
• v.32 no.3
• /
• pp.327-338
• /
• 2022

This study aims to empirically and statistically predict soil depths across areas affected by landslides. Using soil depth measurements from a landslide area in Korea, two sets of soil depths are calculated using a Z-model based on terrain elevation and a probabilistic statistical model. Both sets of calculation results are applied to derive landslide risk using the saturated infiltration depth ratio of the soil layer. This facilitates analysis of the infiltration of rainfall into soil layers for a rainfall event. In comparison with the probabilistic statistical model, the Z-model yields soil depths that are closer to measured values in the study area. Landslide risk assessment in the study area based on soil depth predictions from the two models shows that the percentage of first-grade landslide risk assessed using soil depths from the probabilistic statistical model is 2.5 times that calculated using soil depths from the Z-model. This shows that soil depths directly affect landslide risk assessment; therefore, the acquisition and application of local soil depth data are crucial to landslide risk analysis.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
• /
• v.7 no.1
• /
• pp.1-29
• /
• 2008

The Ministry of Environment(MoE) of Korea has recently established the Environmental Health Act. This Act contains a clause related to implementation of Health Impact Assessment(HIA). So, selecting a landfill which was expected to have an influence on human health among major development projects, this study carried out the human risk assessment due to inhalation exposure to landfill gas emission and attempted to measure the possibility of domestic application of HIA in the future. The process for HIA on landfill site extension focusing on human risk assessment is as follows: The first step is to presume and calculate the amount of landfill gas emissions using LandGEM, The second step is to carry out exposure assessment using K-SCREEN Model which is used for predicting the concentration in a conservative method. The last step is to carry out human risk assessment of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic substances. It is considered that it is likely to apply a technique for human risk assessment due to inhalation exposure to landfill gas emission performed here more specifically in the case of implementing HIA. In addition, it is also believed that more systematic studies are needed to overcome some weak points and limits found in this study and if these weak points and limits are improved more reliable outcomes will be produced.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.19 no.5
• /
• pp.81-89
• /
• 2018

The purpose of this study is to assess the risk and predict the contingency for modular plant construction projects. Considering the work characteristics of the modular plant, The adapted research method is that suggest models for assessment impact of risk and predict the contingency considering risk. Based on the proposed models, It is selected one modular plant construction project and assessment impact of risk factors and predicted the contingency. The results of this study are as follows: Assessment the probability of occurrence of risk factors and intensity of impact, and extract 15 important risk factors. These are classified as Engineering, Procurement, Fabrication, Transportation, Construction phases to consider the work characteristics of the modular plant. The predicted contingency is that 6.739%(Engineering 2.850%, Procurement 6.225%, Fabrication 6.211%, Transportation 4.165%, Construction 8.168%) to prepare the basic business expense. The model is used as a way to derive quantitative results in the decision-making process for risk management in construction projects.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
• /
• 2005.10a
• /
• pp.661-666
• /
• 2005

Wastewater reuse are exposed public health risk by pathogens. Therefore, this study was examined for microbial risk assessment after irrigation as treated wastewater in paddy rice plots. Five treatments were used: biofilter effluent, UV disinfected water, pond treatment, wetland treatment and conventional irrigation water. Risk assessment was calculated based on the beta-Poisson model by concentration of E. coli from 2003 to 2005. Monte-Carlo simulation (n=10,000) was used to estimate the risk characterization of uncertainty. The risk range was from $10^{-5}$ to $10^{-8}$ except biofilter effluent was $10^{-4}$ in June. The USEPA(1992) has recommended that risk of < $10^{-4}$ is acceptable level of safety for potable waters. In 2005, risk value was lower than 2003, 2004 because of the first irrigation for plowing water is lower E. coli concentration used tap water. It is shown that the first irrigation water quality was important for wastewater irrigation in paddy. UV disinfection and natural treatment used pond and wetland were thought to be an effective for wastewater reuse.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• autumn
• /
• pp.473-476
• /
• 2003

This paper presents a systematic risk assessment procedure with uncertainty modeling for general construction projects. Since the approach is able to effectively deal with all the related construction risks in terms of the assumed probability with conditional probability concept that systematically incorporate expert's experiences and subjective judgement, the proposed methods with uncertainty modeling is able to apply to all the construction projects inherent in lots of uncertain risk events. The fuzzy set theory is adopted to enhance risk assessment to effectively handle the vague and dynamic phenomenon of an event Therefore, the fuzzy-based risk assessment is very useful, for those countries, such as Korea, where objective probabilistic data for risk assessment is extremely rare, and thus the utilization of subjective judgmental data based on expert's experiences is inevitable.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.11 no.4
• /
• pp.583-607
• /
• 2016

One of the main applications of seismic risk assessment is that an specific design could be selected for a bridge from different alternatives by considering damage losses alongside primary construction costs. Therefore, in this paper, the focus is on selecting the shape of pylon, which is a changeable component in the design of a cable-stayed bridge, as a double criterion decision-making problem. Different shapes of pylons include H, A, Y, and diamond shape, and the two criterion are construction costs and probable earthquake losses. In this research, decision-making is performed by using developed seismic risk assessment process as a powerful method. Considering the existing uncertainties in seismic risk assessment process, the combined incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) and uniform design (UD) based fragility assessment method is proposed, in which the UD method is utilized to provide the logical capacity models of the structure, and the IDA method is employed to give the probabilistic seismic demand model of structure. Using the aforementioned models and by defining damage states, the fragility curves of the bridge system are obtained for the different pylon shapes usage. Finally, by combining the fragility curves with damage losses and implementing the proposed cost-loss-benefit (CLB) method, the seismic risk assessment process is developed with financial-comparative approach. Thus, the optimal shape of the pylon can be determined using double criterion decision-making. The final results of decision-making study indicate that the optimal pylon shapes for the studied span of cable-stayed bridge are, respectively, H shape, diamond shape, Y shape, and A shape.