• 대한인간공학회지
• /
• 제22권1호
• /
• pp.81-94
• /
• 2003

The British railway safety research group has developed a risk assessment model for the railway infrastructure and major railway accidents. The major hazardous factors of the railway infrastructure were identified and classified in the model. The frequency rates of critical top events were predicted by the fault tree analysis method using failure data of the railway system components and ratings of railway maintenance experts, The consequences of critical top events were predicted by the event tree analysis method. They classified the Joss of accident due to railway system into personal. commercial and environmental damages. They also classified 110 hazardous event due to railway system into three categories. train accident. movement accident and non-movement accident. The risk assessment model of the British railway system has been designed to take full account of both the high frequency low consequence type events (events occurring routinely for which there is significant quantity of recorded data) and the low frequency high consequence events (events occurring rarely for which there is little recorded data). The results for each hazardous event were presented in terms of the frequency of occurrence (number of events/year) and the risk (number of equivalent fatalities per year).

• 한국항공우주학회지
• /
• 제41권8호
• /
• pp.619-624
• /
• 2013

확률론적 수명예측은 파라미터들의 불확실성에 대하여 확률론적인 요소를 적용한다. 따라서 기존의 결정론적 수명해석 기법에 확률론적 기법을 적용하기 위해서는 파손확률을 이용한 위험도 평가가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 항공기 구조물의 확률론적 위험도평가를 수행하기 위하여 파손확률 추정 모델링 기법을 연구하였다. 이를 위해 파라미터들의 확률론적 불확실성을 효과적으로 반영할 수 있는 베이지안 기법을 이용하여 파손확률을 모델링하고 실험 데이터를 이용하여 검증하였다. 연구결과 베이지안 기반의 파손확률 추정 모델링은 정량적인 파손확률을 계산하고 확률론적 위험도평가를 효과적으로 수행할 수 있음을 입증하였다.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
• /
• 제9권1호
• /
• pp.41-53
• /
• 2010

An existing risk diagnosing methodology (RDM) diagnoses corporate risk for product-innovation projects. However, it cannot evaluate and compare the risk levels of multiple alternatives in the product development stage. This paper proposes a modified risk diagnosis method to fill the gap of risk evaluation in selections of innovative product alternatives and the application of the method will be also illustrated by a case problem on alternative selections in electrical dimmer designs. With RDM as the foundation, a modified RDM (MRDM) is proposed to deal with the problem of selecting innovative project alternatives during the early stages of product development. The Bayesian network; a probabilistic graphical model, is adopted to support the risk pre-assessment stage in the MRDM. The MRDM is proposed by incorporating the risk pre-assessment stage into the foundation. By evaluating the engineering design risks in two electrical dimmer switches, an application of the MRDM in product innovation development is successfully exemplified. This paper strengthens the existing methodology for RDM in innovative product development projects to accommodate innovative alternatives. It is advantageous for companies to identify and measure the risks associated in product development so as to plan for appropriate risk mitigation strategies.

• 한국철도학회논문집
• /
• 제20권4호
• /
• pp.550-557
• /
• 2017

철도적용 신뢰성 및 안전성관리에 대한 국제표준 제정과 해당 국제표준에 대한 제3자 적합성평가의 정착으로 철도안전과 밀접한 신호시스템을 중심으로 정량적 위험도평가가 수행되고 있다. 이러한 정량적 지표를 활용한 위험도관리는 사고정의, 허용수준의 정량적 RAMS 목표수립으로부터 시작되어 운영기간 중 위험도가 허용수준으로 유지됨을 확인해야 한다. 본 논문에서는 기존 철도시설물의 5.5년간(2010년 1월~2015년 6월)의 관리장애 정보를 사용하여 국제표준에 따라 위험도 매트릭스를 활용하여 철도시설물 구간에 대한 위험도평가의 사례연구를 수행하였다. 또한, 분석된 데이터를 바탕으로 시설물의 과학적 위험도관리를 위한 방안을 제시한다.

• 해양환경안전학회지
• /
• 제28권7호
• /
• pp.1111-1119
• /
• 2022

신안군 해역의 섬을 통한 관광사업이 활발해지면서 도서 간을 연결하는 해상교량은 현재까지 총 13개가 완공되었다. 그러나 통항로에 설치된 해상교량은 선박통항에 있어 위험성을 주며, 특히 섬과 섬을 연결하는 연도교의 경우 수로의 폭이 매우 좁아 그 위험도는 더욱 높다. 본 연구는 신안군 해역의 연도교에 대한 해상교통조사를 토대로 교각과 선박의 충돌위험도를 항만수로의 위험도 평가 모델인 IWRAP(IALA Waterway Risk Assessment Program)을 활용하여 평가하였다. 그 결과 신안1교가 충돌확률이 가장 높은 것으로 분석되었으며, 통항선박의 대부분은 연안 여객선으로 나타났다. 또한, 신안1교는 대상해역의 교각 중 가장 충돌사고가 많이 발생한 곳으로 본 연구에서는 그 원인을 분석하고자 하였다. 신안1교 해역환경의 위성사진을 영상처리기법으로 분석한 결과 해도에는 볼 수 없는 장애물이 교량 근처에 존재하는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 이로 인해 장애물을 피해 교량의 통항유도방식인 양방향 통항과 달리 한 방향으로 통항이 집중되는 것을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구의 영상처리기법을 활용한 위험원인 분석방법은 향후 연도교의 위험요인 분석을 하는데 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국산림과학회지
• /
• 제110권2호
• /
• pp.210-216
• /
• 2021

우리나라 모든 산업에서 근골격계질환은 작업자들의 안전에 큰 영향을 미치고 있으며, 산림작업은 산업안전보건법에 따라 근골격계 부담작업으로 분류된다. 특히 벌도 및 가지제거작업은 주로 인력작업으로 실시되고 있으며, 작업원의 안정성 확보를 위해 작업자세에 대한 평가가 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구는 체인톱을 이용한 벌도 및 가지제거작업의 작업자를 대상으로 세가지 인간공학적 분석 도구(OWAS, RULA, REBA)를 이용하여 위험도를 평가하고, 평가기법별 작업자세에 대한 영향인자를 분석하였다. 벌도와 가지제거작업자세의 위험도는 RULA, OWAS, REBA 순으로 높게 평가되었으며, 대부분 2-3단계로 작업자세의 즉각 변경조치는 요구되지 않았다. 하지만 벌도작업에서 허리와 다리를 굽힌자세와 가지제거작업에서 벌도목 위에서 작업하는 자세는 위험도가 매우 높게 분석되었다. 또한 벌도작업의 경우 산지경사, 가지제거작업의 경우는 지상에서부터 벌도목 높이가 작업위험도 평가에 영향이 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 따라서 산림작업에 있어서 작업자의 안전성을 확보하기 위해 작업부하가 낮은 자세(벌도작업: 쪼그리는 자세, 가지제거작업: 허리와 다리가 곧은 자세)로 작업하는 것이 바람직한 것으로 사료된다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
• /
• 제55권4호
• /
• pp.73-82
• /
• 2013

The main objective of this study was to evaluate Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios-based flood risk at a Si-Gun level. A bias correction using a quantile mapping method with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was performed to correct future precipitation data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). A series of proxy variables including CN80 (Number of days over 80 mm) and CX3h (Maximum precipitation during 3-hr) etc. were used to carry out flood risk assessment. Indicators were normalized by a Z-score method and weighted by factors estimated by principal component analysis (PCA). Flood risk evaluation was conducted for the four different time periods, i.e. 1990s, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s, which correspond to 1976~2005, 2011~2040, 2041~2070, and 2071~2100. The average flood risk indices based on RCP4.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.16, 0.22, and 0.13 for the corresponding periods in the order of time, which increased steadily up to 2055s period and decreased. The average indices based on RCP8.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.23, 0.11, and 0.21, which decreased in the 2055s period and then increased again. Considering the average index during entire period of the future, RCP8.5 scenario resulted in greater risk than RCP4.5 scenario.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• 제77권1호
• /
• pp.19-35
• /
• 2021

Existing methods to estimate the probability of seismic pounding occurrence of adjacent buildings do not account for nonlinear behavior or only apply to simple lumped mass systems. The present study proposes an efficient method based on subset simulation for fragility and risk assessment of seismic pounding occurrence between nonlinear adjacent buildings neglecting pounding effects with application to finite element models. The proposed method is first applied to adjacent buildings modeled as elastoplastic systems with substantially different dynamic properties for different structural parameters. Seismic pounding fragility and risk of adjacent frame structures with different floor levels is then assessed, paying special attention to modeling the non-linear material behavior in finite element models. Difference in natural periods and impact location are identified to affect the pounding fragility simultaneously. The reliability levels of the minimum code-specified separation distances are also determined. In addition, the incremental dynamic analysis method is extended to assess seismic pounding fragility of the adjacent frame structures, resulting in higher fragility estimates for separation distances larger than the minimum code-specified ones in comparison with the proposed method.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• 제23권2호
• /
• pp.185-194
• /
• 2019

The probabilistic tsunami risk assessment of large coastal areas is challenging because the inland propagation of a tsunami wave requires an accurate numerical model that takes into account the interaction between the ground, the infrastructures, and the wave itself. Classic mesh-based methods face many challenges in the propagation of a tsunami wave inland due to their ever-moving boundary conditions. In alternative, mesh-less based methods can be used, but they require too much computational power in the far-field. This study proposes a hybrid approach. A mesh-based method propagates the tsunami wave from the far-field to the near-field, where the influence of the sea floor is negligible, and a mesh-less based method, smooth particle hydrodynamic, propagates the wave onto the coast and inland, and takes into account the wave structure interaction. Nowadays, this can be done because the advent of general purpose GPUs made mesh-less methods computationally affordable. The method is used to simulate the inland propagation of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami off the coast of Indonesia.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
• /
• 제22권3호
• /
• pp.185-191
• /
• 2018

Post-earthquake risk assessment technique in Korea is developed in 2013 by National Disaster Management Research Institute, at the same time, related manual and standard regulation is distributed to every local government by National Emergency Management Agency. The objectives of this research are to investigate and evaluate the post-earthquake risk assessment of 9.12 Earthquake (M5.8, Gyeongju City, 2016) and 11.15 Earthquake (M5.4, Pohang City, 2017). To suggest and improve the assessment process of post-earthquake risk, first post-earthquake risk assessment method of advanced foreign countries including US, New Zealand and Japan are compared, and post-earthquake evaluation activities in 9.12 Earthquake and 11.15 Earthquake are analyzed. From the results, it is needed to expand the adapted building and structure types and strengthen the earthquake disaster response capacity of local government.