• 제목/요약/키워드: risk areas

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The study of heavy rain warning in Gangwon State using threshold rainfall (침수유발 강우량을 이용한 강원특별자치도 호우특보 기준에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyeonjia;Kang, Donghob;Lee, Iksangc;Kim, Byungsikd
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.11
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    • pp.751-764
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    • 2023
  • Gangwon State is centered on the Taebaek Mountains with very different climate characteristics depending on the region, and localized heavy rainfall is a frequent occurrence. Heavy rain disasters have a short duration and high spatial and temporal variability, causing many casualties and property damage. In the last 10 years (2012~2021), the number of heavy rain disasters in Gangwon State was 28, with an average cost of 45.6 billion won. To reduce heavy rain disasters, it is necessary to establish a disaster management plan at the local level. In particular, the current criteria for heavy rain warnings are uniform and do not consider local characteristics. Therefore, this study aims to propose a heavy rainfall warning criteria that considers the threshold rainfall for the advisory areas located in Gangwon State. As a result of analyzing the representative value of threshold rainfall by advisory area, the Mean value was similar to the criteria for issuing a heavy rain warning, and it was selected as the criteria for a heavy rain warning in this study. The rainfall events of Typhoon Mitag in 2019, Typhoons Maysak and Haishen in 2020, and Typhoon Khanun in 2023 were applied as rainfall events to review the criteria for heavy rainfall warnings, as a result of Hit Rate accuracy verification, this study reflects the actual warning well with 72% in Gangneung Plain and 98% in Wonju. The criteria for heavy rain warnings in this study are the same as the crisis warning stages (Attention, Caution, Alert, and Danger), which are considered to be possible for preemptive rain disaster response. The results of this study are expected to complement the uniform decision-making system for responding to heavy rain disasters in the future and can be used as a basis for heavy rain warnings that consider disaster risk by region.

Development and Validation of the Social Entrepreneurship Measurement Tools: From an Organizational-Level Behavioral Perspective (사회적기업가정신 척도 개발 및 타당화 연구: 조직차원의 행동적 관점에서)

  • Cho, Han Jun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.97-113
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    • 2023
  • In order to generalize the social entrepreneurship model with cooperation orientation and increase the possibility of using the model, this study developed a measurement tool and tested it with 389 executives of social enterprises. For the development of the measurement tool, preliminary measurement items were formed through review of previous studies, and a questionnaire was tentatively composed of 40 measurement items in five areas through an expert panel review of the measurement items. A total of 389 questionnaires were collected by conducting a questionnaire survey targeting Korean social enterprise managers, and exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis were conducted using 375 questionnaires that could be analyzed. Five factors for 24 items were derived through exploratory factor analysis and reliability analysis. Through a series of analysis processes including primary and secondary confirmatory factor analysis, the model fit of the newly constructed social entrepreneurship research model was confirmed, and the validity and reliability of the measurement tools were verified. As a result of this study, the model fit of the social entrepreneurship model(social value orientation; innovativeness; pro-activeness; risk-taking; cooperation orientation) is verified, thereby improving the theoretical explanatory power of social entrepreneurship research and at the same time providing the basis and basis for theoretical expansion of follow-up research. The study proved the possibility of generalizing the social entrepreneurship model with added cooperation orientation, and at the same time, the measurement tool used in this study was widely used as a tool to measure social entrepreneurship theoretically and practically. In addition, it was confirmed that the cooperation orientation is manifested in corporate decision-making and activity behaviors for resource mobilization and capacity building, opportunity and performance creation, social capital and network reinforcement, and governance establishment of social enterprises.

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A Case Study on the Success Factors of Overseas Agricultural Startup: Focusing on the Case of Banana Farm in Cote d'Ivoire (해외 농업스타트업(Agricultural Startup) 성공요인에 관한 사례연구: 'C사'의 제2창업기(바나나 팜 개발사례)를 중심으로)

  • Jin hwan Park;Sang soon Kim
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.61-79
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    • 2023
  • This study is a case study of overseas banana farms as a global agricultural startup that has hardly been attempted so far in terms of paradigm shift in the industry, beyond regional limitations. It was researched for the purpose of revealing the success factors of 'global agricultural startup' in terms of business process, entrepreneurship, and management dimensions learned through direct participation and observation at the local level. In order to study global agricultural startups, this study also conducted a comparative analysis of global startups (global startups) and global agricultural startups(global agricultural startups). In fact, the analysis consists of 'definition', 'components', and 'success factors', and we want to confirm the difference between the two concepts that can be distinguished. The case analysis tried to maximize the advantages of 'participatory action research' by directly observing and experiencing banana farms. In the case of banana farm cases, by dividing them into preparation process for farm development and farm development and management process, various variables considered in farm management were explained through the whole process of farm management. Through the process of overcoming and responding to specific failure cases, we tried to secure the reliability and validity of the research, and the case studies related to entrepreneurship, management, and organization analyzed by applying them by subdividing them into theoretical areas belonging to components and management that were theorized in existing preceding studies. This study is almost the first study on the process of creating a local entry business by directly moving the head office overseas rather than entering overseas agriculture as a subsidiary, joint venture or overseas corporation. In particular, it is a unique case that corresponds to agriculture in terms of region(Africa), scale(startup), and industry that have not been introduced so far as a global agricultural startup. In terms of entrepreneurship, it also concretely exemplified how entrepreneurship components such as innovativeness, risk-taking propensity, proactiveness, vision sharing, social contribution, leadership, etc., which have not been attempted so far in agricultural cases, are manifested and effective. The management and cultural aspects also went beyond the argument that only cultural aspects are important in overseas business, and also confirmed individual failure cases and their responses in recruitment, job, wage, retirement, development, organizational structure management, etc. As a result, there is significance and implications of this study in that it provides theoretical confirmation as well as practical and responsive basis for 'entrepreneurship', 'farming management', and 'management' aspects in overseas agricultural startup business operation.

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Comparative Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis Response Capacities by Countries (코로나19 팬데믹 위기 대응 역량의 국가별 비교분석)

  • Yoon Hyeon Lee
    • The Journal of Korean Society for School & Community Health Education
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.59-70
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    • 2024
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study is to analyze each country's infectious disease response capacities and, based on this, find areas for improvement in Korea's infectious disease management response. Methods: First, the capacity to respond to the COVID-19 infectious disease was analyzed by country using the SPAR scores of 96 countries around the world released by WHO in 2022. Second, we analyzed each country's specific COVID-19 quarantine performance using Our World in Data and the Global Health Security Index (GHSI). Results: First, the quarantine intensity index on January 24, 2021 was the highest in the Southeast Asia branch at 67.6, which had strong quarantine measures, and the lowest at 44.5 in the Africa branch. As of December 31, 2022, the quarantine intensity index in Europe was significantly lowered to 11.6. Second, the factor that influenced the SPAR indicator on the total number of patients per million population was national laboratory (C4), p=.027, and the factor that influenced the total number of deaths per million population was infection prevention and control (C9), p=.005., Risk Communication and Community Participation (C10) p=.040. The influential factor on GDP per capita was infection prevention and control (C9) p=.009, and the influential factor on GHSI was infection prevention and control (C9) p=.002. Conclusion: The research findings indicate that it was difficult to find a correlation between the SPAR, which is each country's self-assessment of their infectious disease capacities, and the number of COVID-19 cases or the intensity of pandemic responses. However, mortality rates, as well as factors such as the Global Health Security Index (GHSI) and national income, appear to be somewhat influenced. For future improvements in infectious disease management and response in our country, it is necessary to develop pandemic strategies that can reduce socio-economic costs based on more scientific and reliable data like JEE or GHSI, especially in preparation for potential unknown emerging infectious diseases. Based on this, proactive decision-making led by a control tower of experts and effective health communication are also required to respond to public health crises at a national level.

Radiation Therapy and Chemotherapy after Breast Conserving Surgery for Invasive Breast Cancer: An Intermediate Result (침윤성 유방암에서 유방보존수술 후 방사선치료 및 항암화학 병용치료의 성적 및 위험인자 분석)

  • Lee, Seok-Ho;Choi, Jin-Ho;Lee, Young-Don;Park, Heoung-Kyu;Kim, Hyun-Young;Park, Se-Hoon;Lee, Kyu-Chan
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.16-25
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    • 2007
  • [ $\underline{Purpose}$ ]: Breast conserving surgery (BCS) followed by chemotherapy (CTx.) and radiation therapy (RT) is widely performed for the treatment of early breast cancer. This retrospective study was undertaken to evaluate our interim results in terms of failure patterns, survival and relative risk factors. $\underline{Materials\;and\;Methods}$: From January 1999 through December 2003, 129 patients diagnosed with invasive breast cancer and treated with BCS followed by RT were subject to retrospective review. The median age of the patients was 45 years (age distribution, $27{\sim}76$ years). The proportions of patients according to their tumor, nodes, and metastases (TNM) stage were 65 (50.4%) in stage I, 41 (31.7%) in stage IIa, 13 (10.1%) in stage IIb, 9 (7.0%) in stage III, and 1 patient (0.8%) in stage IIIc. For 32 patients (24.8%), axillary node metastasis was found after dissection. BCS consisted of quadrantectomy in 115 patients (89.1%) and lumpectomy in 14 patients (10.6%). Axillary node dissection at axillary level I and II was performed for 120 patients (93%). For 7 patients (5.4%), only sentinel node dissection was performed with BCS. For 2 patients (1.6%) axillary dissection of any type was not performed. Postoperative RT was given with 6 MV X-rays. A tumor dose of 50.4 Gy was delivered to the entire breast area using a tangential field with a wedge compensator. An aditional dose of $9{\sim}16\;Gy$ was given to the primary tumor bed areas with electron beams. In 30 patients (23.3%), RT was delivered to the supraclavicular node. Most patients had adjuvant CTx. with $4{\sim}6$ cycles of CMF (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, 5-fluorouracil) regimens. The median follow-up period was 50 months (range: $17{\sim}93$ months). $\underline{Results}$: The actuarial 5 year survival rate (5Y-OSR) was 96.9%, and the 5 year disease free survival rate (5Y-DFSR) was 93.7%. Local recurrences were noted in 2 patients (true: 2, regional node: 1) as the first sign of recurrence at a mean time of 29.3 months after surgery. Five patients developed distant metastases as the first sign of recurrence at $6{\sim}33$ months (mean 21 months). Sites of distant metastatic sites were bone in 3 patients, liver in 1 patient and systemic lesions in 1 patient. Among the patients with distant metastatic sites, two patients died at 17 and 25 months during the follow-up period. According to stage, the 5Y-OSR was 95.5%, 100%, 84.6%, and 100% for stage I, IIa, IIb, and III respectively. The 5Y-DFSR was 96.8%, 92.7%, 76.9%, and 100% for stage I, IIa, IIb, and III respectively. Stage was the only risk factor for local recurrence based on univariate analysis. Ten stage III patients included in this analysis had a primary tumor size of less than 3 cm and had more than 4 axillary lymph node metastases. The 10 stage III patients received not only breast RT but also received posterior axillary boost RT to the supraclavicular node. During the median 53.3 months follow-up period, no any local or distant failure was found. Complications were asymptomatic radiation pneumonitis in 10 patients, symptomatic pneumonitis in 1 patient and lymphedema in 8 patients. $\underline{Conclusion}$: Although our follow up period is short, we had excellent local control and survival results and reaffirmed that BCS followed by RT and CTx. appears to be an adequate treatment method. These results also provide evidence that distant failure occurs earlier and more frequent as compared with local failure. Further studies and a longer follow-up period are needed to assess the effectiveness of BCS followed by RT for the patients with less than a 3 cm primary tumor and more than 4 axillary node metastases.

The Analysis of Radiation Exposure of Hospital Radiation Workers (병원 방사선 작업 종사자의 방사선 피폭 분석 현황)

  • Jeong Tae Sik;Shin Byung Chul;Moon Chang Woo;Cho Yeong Duk;Lee Yong Hwan;Yum Ha Yong
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.157-166
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    • 2000
  • Purpose : This investigation was peformed in order to improve the health care of radiation workers, to predict a risk, to minimize the radiation exposure hazard to them and for them to realize radiation exposure danger when they work in radiation area in hospital. Methods and Materials : The documentations checked regularly for personal radiation exposure in four university hospitals in Pusan city in Korea between January 1, 1993 and December 31, 1997 were analyzed. There were 458 persons in this documented but 111 persons who worked less then one year were excluded and only 347 persons were included in this study. Results : The average of yearly radiation exposure of 347 persons was 1.52$\pm$1.35 mSv. Though it was less than 50mSv, the limitaion of radiation in law but 125 (36%) people received higher radiation exposure than non-radiation workers. Radiation workers under 30 year old have received radiation exposure of mean 1.87$\pm$1.01 mSv/year, mean 1.22$\pm$0.69 mSv between 31 and 40 year old and mean 0.97$\pm$0.43 mSv/year over 41year old (p<0.001). Men received mean 1.67$\pm$1.54 mSv/year were higher than women who received mean 1.13$\pm$0.61 mSv/year (p<0.01). Radiation exposure in the department of nuclear modicine department in spite of low energy sources is higher than other departments that use radiations in hospital (p<0.05). And the workers who received mean 3.59$\pm$1.81 msv/year in parts of management of radiation sources and injection of sources to patient receive high radiation exposure in nuclear medicine department (p<0.01). In department of diagnostic radiology high radiation exposure is in barium enema rooms where workers received mean 3.74$\pm$1.74 mSv/year and other parts where they all use fluoroscopy such as angiography room of mean 1.17$\pm$0.35 mSv/year and upper gastrointestinal room of mean 1.74$\pm$1.34 mSv/year represented higher radiation exposure than average radiation exposure in diagnostic radiology (p<0.01). Doctors and radiation technologists received higher radiation exposure of each mean 1.75$\pm$1.17 mSv/year and mean 1.50$\pm$1.39 mSv/year than other people who work in radiation area in hospital (p<0.05). Especially young doctors and technologists have the high opportunity to receive higher radiation exposure. Conclusions : The training and education of radiation workers for radiation exposure risks are important and it is necessary to rotate worker in short period in high risk area. The hospital management has to concern health of radiation workers more and to put an effort to reduce radiation exposure as low as possible in radiation areas in hospital.

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Electronic Roll Book using Electronic Bracelet.Child Safe-Guarding Device System (전자 팔찌를 이용한 전자 출석부.어린이 보호 장치 시스템)

  • Moon, Seung-Jin;Kim, Tae-Nam;Kim, Pan-Su
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.143-155
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    • 2011
  • Lately electronic tagging policy for the sexual offenders was introduced in order to reduce and prevent sexual offences. However, most sexual offences against children happening these days are committed by the tagged offenders whose identities have been released. So, for the crime prevention, we need measures with which we could minimize the suffers more promptly and actively. This paper suggests a new system to relieve the sexual abuse related anxiety of the children and solve the problems that electronic bracelet has. Existing bracelets are only worn by serious criminals, and it's only for risk management and positioning, there is no way to protect the children who are the potential victims of sexual abuse and there actually happened some cases. So we suggest also letting the students(children) wear the LBS(Location Based Service) and USN(Ubiquitous Sensor Network) technology based electronic bracelets to monitor and figure out dangerous situations intelligently, so that we could prevent sexual offences against children beforehand, and while a crime is happening, we could judge the situation of the crime intelligently and take swift action to minimize the suffer. And by checking students' attendance and position, guardians could know where their children are in real time and could protect the children from not only sexual offences but also violent crimes against children like kidnapping. The overall system is like follows : RFID Tag for children monitors the approach of offenders. While an offender's RFID tag is approaching, it will transmit the situation and position as the first warning message to the control center and the guardians. When the offender is going far away, it turns to monitoring mode, and if the tag of the child or the offender is taken off or the child and offender stay at one position for 3~5 minutes or longer, then it will consider this as a dangerous situation, then transmit the emergency situations and position as the second warning message to the control center and the guardians, and ask for the dispatch of police to prevent the crime at the initial stage. The RFID module of criminals' electronic bracelets is RFID TAG, and the RFID module for the children is RFID receiver(reader), so wherever the offenders are, if an offender is at a place within 20m from a child, RFID module for children will transmit the situation every certain periods to the control center by the automatic response of the receiver. As for the positioning module, outdoors GPS or mobile communications module(CELL module)is used and UWB, WI-FI based module is used indoors. The sensor is set under the purpose of making it possible to measure the position coordinates even indoors, so that one could send his real time situation and position to the server of central control center. By using the RFID electronic roll book system of educational institutions and safety system installed at home, children's position and situation can be checked. When the child leaves for school, attendance can be checked through the electronic roll book, and when school is over the information is sent to the guardians. And using RFID access control turnstiles installed at the apartment or entrance of the house, the arrival of the children could be checked and the information is transmitted to the guardians. If the student is absent or didn't arrive at home, the information of the child is sent to the central control center from the electronic roll book or access control turnstiles, and look for the position of the child's electronic bracelet using GPS or mobile communications module, then send the information to the guardians and teacher so that they could report to the police immediately if necessary. Central management and control system is built under the purpose of monitoring dangerous situations and guardians' checking. It saves the warning and pattern data to figure out the areas with dangerous situation, and could help introduce crime prevention systems like CCTV with the highest priority. And by DB establishment personal data could be saved, the frequency of first and second warnings made, the terminal ID of the specific child and offender, warning made position, situation (like approaching, taken off of the electronic bracelet, same position for a certain time) and so on could be recorded, and the data is going to be used for preventing crimes. Even though we've already introduced electronic tagging to prevent recurrence of child sexual offences, but the crimes continuously occur. So I suggest this system to prevent crimes beforehand concerning the children's safety. If we make electronic bracelets easy to use and carry, and set the price reasonably so that many children can use, then lots of criminals could be prevented and we can protect the children easily. By preventing criminals before happening, it is going to be a helpful system for our safe life.

Postoperative Radiation Therapy in the Soft-tissue Sarcoma (연부 조직 육종의 수술 후 방사선 치료 결과)

  • Kim Yeon Shil;Jang Hong Seok;Yoon Sei Chul;Ryu Mi Ryeong;Kay Chul Seung;Chung Su Mi;Kim Hoon Kyo;Kang Yong Koo
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.485-495
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    • 1998
  • Purpose : The major goal of the therapy in the soft tissue sarcoma is to control both local and distant tumor. However, the technique of obtaining local control has changed significantly over the past few decades from more aggressive surgery to combined therapy including conservative surgery and radiation and/or chemotherapy. We retrospectively analyzed the treatment results of the postoperative radiation therapy of soft tissue sarcoma and its prognostic factor. Materials and Methods : Between March 1983 and June 1994, 50 patients with soft tissue sarcoma were treated with surgery and postoperative radiation therapy at Kang-Nam St. Mary's hospital. Complete follow up was possible for all patients with median follow up duration 50 months (range 6-162 months). There were 28 male and 32 female patients. Their age ranged from 6 to 83 with a median of 44 years. Extremity (58$\%$) was the most frequent site of occurrence followed by trunk (20$\%$) and head and neck (12$\%$). Histologically malignant fibrous histiocytoma (23$\%$), liposarcoma (17$\%$), malignant schwannoma (12$\%$) constitute 52$\%$ of the patients. Daily radiation therapy designed to treat all areas at a risk for tumor spread upto dose of 4500-5000 cGy. A shrinking field technique was then used and total 55-65 Gy was delivered to tumor bed. Twenty-five patients (42$\%$) received chemotherapy with various regimen in the postoperative period. Results : Total 41 patients failed either with local recurrence or with distant metastasis. There were 29 patients (48$\%$) of local recurrence. Four patients (7$\%$) developed simultaneous local recurrence and distant metastasis and 8 patients (13$\%$) developed only distant metastasis. Local recurrence rate was rather higher than of other reported series. This study included patients of gross residual, recurrent cases after previous operation, trunk and head and neck Primary This feature is likely explanation for the decreased local control rate. Five of 29 Patients who failed only locally were salvaged by re-excision and/or re-irradiation and remained free of disease. Factors affecting local control include histologic type, grade, stage, extent of operation and surgical margin involvement, lymph node metastasis (p<0.05). All 21 patients who failed distantly are dead with progressive disease at the time of this report. Our overall survival results are similar to those of larger series. Actuarial 5 year overall survival and disease free survival were 60.4 $\%$, 30.6$\%$ respectively. Grade, stage (being close association with grade), residual disease (negative margin, microscopic, gross) were significant as a predictor of survival in our series (p<0.05). Conclusion : Combined surgery and postoperative radiation therapy obtained 5 year survival rate comparable to that of radical surgery.

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Development of a Stock Trading System Using M & W Wave Patterns and Genetic Algorithms (M&W 파동 패턴과 유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 주식 매매 시스템 개발)

  • Yang, Hoonseok;Kim, Sunwoong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.63-83
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    • 2019
  • Investors prefer to look for trading points based on the graph shown in the chart rather than complex analysis, such as corporate intrinsic value analysis and technical auxiliary index analysis. However, the pattern analysis technique is difficult and computerized less than the needs of users. In recent years, there have been many cases of studying stock price patterns using various machine learning techniques including neural networks in the field of artificial intelligence(AI). In particular, the development of IT technology has made it easier to analyze a huge number of chart data to find patterns that can predict stock prices. Although short-term forecasting power of prices has increased in terms of performance so far, long-term forecasting power is limited and is used in short-term trading rather than long-term investment. Other studies have focused on mechanically and accurately identifying patterns that were not recognized by past technology, but it can be vulnerable in practical areas because it is a separate matter whether the patterns found are suitable for trading. When they find a meaningful pattern, they find a point that matches the pattern. They then measure their performance after n days, assuming that they have bought at that point in time. Since this approach is to calculate virtual revenues, there can be many disparities with reality. The existing research method tries to find a pattern with stock price prediction power, but this study proposes to define the patterns first and to trade when the pattern with high success probability appears. The M & W wave pattern published by Merrill(1980) is simple because we can distinguish it by five turning points. Despite the report that some patterns have price predictability, there were no performance reports used in the actual market. The simplicity of a pattern consisting of five turning points has the advantage of reducing the cost of increasing pattern recognition accuracy. In this study, 16 patterns of up conversion and 16 patterns of down conversion are reclassified into ten groups so that they can be easily implemented by the system. Only one pattern with high success rate per group is selected for trading. Patterns that had a high probability of success in the past are likely to succeed in the future. So we trade when such a pattern occurs. It is a real situation because it is measured assuming that both the buy and sell have been executed. We tested three ways to calculate the turning point. The first method, the minimum change rate zig-zag method, removes price movements below a certain percentage and calculates the vertex. In the second method, high-low line zig-zag, the high price that meets the n-day high price line is calculated at the peak price, and the low price that meets the n-day low price line is calculated at the valley price. In the third method, the swing wave method, the high price in the center higher than n high prices on the left and right is calculated as the peak price. If the central low price is lower than the n low price on the left and right, it is calculated as valley price. The swing wave method was superior to the other methods in the test results. It is interpreted that the transaction after checking the completion of the pattern is more effective than the transaction in the unfinished state of the pattern. Genetic algorithms(GA) were the most suitable solution, although it was virtually impossible to find patterns with high success rates because the number of cases was too large in this simulation. We also performed the simulation using the Walk-forward Analysis(WFA) method, which tests the test section and the application section separately. So we were able to respond appropriately to market changes. In this study, we optimize the stock portfolio because there is a risk of over-optimized if we implement the variable optimality for each individual stock. Therefore, we selected the number of constituent stocks as 20 to increase the effect of diversified investment while avoiding optimization. We tested the KOSPI market by dividing it into six categories. In the results, the portfolio of small cap stock was the most successful and the high vol stock portfolio was the second best. This shows that patterns need to have some price volatility in order for patterns to be shaped, but volatility is not the best.

A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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