• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.61-72
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• 1980

This paper is an attempt at developing a method for the analysis and estimation of the effects of project disruptions due to uncertainties. Such uncertainties may result from design changes in large-scale, complex, research and development, or construction projects. An entropical risk analysis method is developed. The method is able to estimate the project capacity to handle equivocation due to design changes and the effects of project disruptions. In an attempt to evaluate the predictive capability of the method, it is compared with the results obtained by a computer Monte Carlo simulation program. It is shown that the entropical risk analysis method may be suggested as an expedient means of evaluating project status for management in the different stages of project execution.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.73-82
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• 2011

Basel II advanced measurement approaches for operational risk need to estimate the frequency and severity distribution of operational losses. Due to lack of internal loss data, the estimation is impossible in many cases and so external loss data might be used by scaling on asset or gross income. To get around lack of loss data, scenario analysis combined with loss distribution approach can be useful in calculating the capital charge of operational risk. However, scenario based loss distribution approach requires much time and effort. Instead we may apply the analytic hierarchy process to measure operational risk of financial institutions. The analytic hierarchy process combined with loss distribution approach is to estimate the capital charge of operational risk in other areas based on the operational VaR in an area with sufficient loss data. AHP provides a tool for timely measurement of operational risk in this rapidly changing global environment.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.45-51
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• 2021

A runway safety area (RSA) is defined as the surface surrounding the runway prepared or suitable for reducing the risk of damage to airplanes in the event of an undershoot, overshoot, or excursion from the runway. The Runway Stripe is a defined area including the runway stopway, if provided, intended firstly to reduce the risk of damage to aircraft running off a runway, and secondly, to protect aircraft flying over it during takeoff or landing operations. This study used 2 RSA analysis models; RSARA and LRSARA. The analysis utilizes historical data from the specific airport and allows to take into consideration specific operational conditions to which movements are subject, as well as the actual or planned RSA conditions in terms of dimensions, configuration, and boundaries defined by existing obstacles. This study applied the RSA and LRSA risk assessment models to a domestic airport that do not meet the criteria required by standards for aerodrome physical characteristics. The airport is considering a method to secure the runway strip standard through the displaced threshold. This study intends to confirm through quantitative risk estimation whether meeting facility standards through the runway displaced threshold leads to a positive change in risk mitigation.

• Journal of Korean Critical Care Nursing
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.57-70
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• 2019

Purpose : The purpose of this study was to identify the risk factors for falls in tertiary hospital inpatients and to suggest data for developing a nursing intervention program for preventing falls. Methods: Data were collected between January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2017. Kaplan-Meier estimation was used to measure the survival rate, and the log-rank test was used for the differences between the fall group and the non-fall group. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the risk factors for falls. Results: The incidence rate of falls for the inpatients was 1.2 cases per 1,000 days of hospitalization. The risk factors for falls were more likely to be found among those who were aged ${\geq}81$, had not undergone surgery, had poor joint motion, had unsteady gait, needed help or supervision, used assistive devices, had comorbidity, and took at least two drugs. Conclusion: For the inpatients, the risk factors for falls included age, surgery, comorbidity, medication that could change mobility, joint motion, and use of patient care equipment. It is necessary to give special attention to inpatients who have any of these risk factors and to develop a falls risk assessment tool.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2013.01a
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• pp.419-425
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• 2013

Recently AEC industry has required construction automation according to becoming large and complex. Thus BIM-based construction project is increased and used in whole fields of AEC industry. Quantity take-off and estimation fields are important factor for decision-making in conceptual and schematic design stages of construction projects. The purpose of this study improves reliability of the estimation through QTO based on Open BIM. Scope and method to apply QTO is to select conceptual design stage through LoD(Level of Detail) in AEC field and to extract information from BIM model through analysis of IFC structure. This study proceeds three step to make BIM model and check the model quality and calculate QTO. The methodology of QTO using IFC is to verify of result in this study and expects utilizing in design stage of construction projects. The result from this study is expected to decrease the risk factor and time of estimation in the project early phase through improving reliability of schematic estimation.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• v.30 no.sup
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• pp.5.1-5.5
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• 2015

Objectives To protect public health from risk, the Minister of Environment in Korea legislated an act concerning the registration and evaluation of chemical substances. In this study, we estimated the value of a statistical life (VSL) of carcinogenic chemicals to evaluate the socioeconomic analysis in Korea. Methods The estimation of the health benefit can be calculated through an individual's VSL and willingness to pay (WTP). To estimate the VSL and WTP, we used a contingent valuation method through a web-based survey. Results The survey is conducted with 1434 people living in Seoul and six large cities. An analysis of the survey is essential to review the distribution of the characteristics of the target population. The statistically significant variables affecting the WTP are location, age, household income, quality of life. Through the review of data, we secured statistical validity. The WTP was estimated as 41205 Korean won (KRW)/person, and the estimated VSL appeared as 796 million KRW/person. Conclusions There is a case in which the amount of statistical life value is estimated in connection with domestic environmental policy, fine dust, etc. However, there are no cases of evaluation for chemical. The utilization of this result is possible for conducting other study with chemicals.

• Atmosphere
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.107-121
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• 2024

In this study, we empirically analyzed the impact of physical risks due to climate change on the soundness and operational performance of the financial industry by combining economics and climatology. Particularly, unlike previous studies, we employed the Seasonal-Trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) method to extract trends of climate-related risk variables and economic-financial variables, conducting a two-stage empirical analysis. In the first stage estimation, we found that the delinquency rate and the Bank for International Settlement (BIS) ratio of commercial banks have significant negative effects on the damage caused by natural disasters, frequency of heavy rainfall, average temperature, and number of typhoons. On the other hand, for insurance companies, the damage from natural disasters, frequency of heavy rainfall, frequency of heavy snowfall, and annual average temperature have significant negative effects on return on assets (ROA) and the risk-based capital ratio (RBC). In the second stage estimation, based on the first stage results, we predicted the soundness and operational performance indicators of commercial banks and insurance companies until 2035. According to the forecast results, the delinquency rate of commercial banks is expected to increase steadily until 2035 under assumption that recent years' trend continues until 2035. It indicates that banks' managerial risk can be seriously worsened from climate change. Also the BIS ratio is expected to decrease which also indicates weakening safety buffer against climate risks over time. Additionally, the ROA of insurance companies is expected to decrease, followed by an increase in the RBC, and then a subsequent decrease.

• Journal of Digital Contents Society
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.899-906
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• 2018

In the entire process of disaster management, it is very significant to construct related information as well as perform quantitative assessment of damage losses with respect to minimizing the effect of disasters. Many countries have paid much attention not only to studying risk assessment methodologies including constructing inventories, hazard mapping, vulnerability assessment and direct/indirect damage loss estimation, but also to developing risk analysis tools investigated in this paper. We conducted comparison studies of representative earthquake damage risk analysis tools, and the result of this study is able to provide useful information to decision makers and researchers who can contribute to development of effective disaster management.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.267-273
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• 2011

Since 'The Act on Private Investment of The Infrastructure' was established in 1994, private investment as well as government's investment in transport infrastructure has been active. However investment in transport infrastructure has more risks than others' due to uncertainty both in traffic volume and in construction cost. In the current appraisal procedure of deciding transportation infrastructure investment, instead of risk management, the sensitivity analysis considering only the changes of benefit, cost and social discount rate which are main factor affecting economic feasibility is carried out. Therefore the uncertainty of various factors affecting demand, cost and benefit are not considered in feasibility study. In this study the problems in current investment appraisal system were reviewed. Using Delphi technique the major factors which have high uncertainty in feasibility study were surveyed and then improvement plan was suggested in the respective of classic 4 step demand forecasting method. The range estimation technique was also mentioned to deal with the uncertainty of the future.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.105-123
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• 2020

This study analyzes the risk selection behavior of Japanese households. The study approaches the view of 'the hyperbolic discount' which is used in behavioral economics based on the rise in mortgage lending by low-income households in the late 2000s. The study focuses on how households risk preferences vary by income levels. The study analyzes the relationship of attitude of household interest rate risk using Binomial Logistic and Heckman two-step estimation method assuming that there are only two types of Adjustable-Rate Mortgage and Fixed-Rate Mortgage. As a result of the empirical analysis, low-income households annual income tend to have a higher proportion of housing debt as same as higher interest rate risk preferences households in proportion to income growth and interest rate risk preferences. Those results indicate that there is possibility of a hyperbolic discount on low-income households in Japan, and support the hypothesis that low-income households are relatively higher household debt ratio because of high utility due to home purchase in the near future (short-term).