Entropical Risk Analysis Method for Managing Project Disruptions

This paper is an attempt at developing a method for the analysis and estimation of the effects of project disruptions due to uncertainties. Such uncertainties may result from design changes in large-scale, complex, research and development, or construction projects. An entropical risk analysis method is developed. The method is able to estimate the project capacity to handle equivocation due to design changes and the effects of project disruptions. In an attempt to evaluate the predictive capability of the method, it is compared with the results obtained by a computer Monte Carlo simulation program. It is shown that the entropical risk analysis method may be suggested as an expedient means of evaluating project status for management in the different stages of project execution.