• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.129-136
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• 2008

홍수 예방을 위해 사용되는 구조적 또는 비구조적 대책의 성공여부는 홍수 예측의 정확도에 달려있다. 본 연구에서는 홍수 범람 발생유무, 범람 면적 또는 최대수위를 예측 및 모의가 가능한 수치모형을 개발하였다. 비선형 Saint-Venant 방정식을지 배방정식으로 사용하였으며, 적합화된 계층적 사면구조 격자를 적용하여, leap-frog 기법과 upwind 기법으로 양해적으로 유한차분하였다. 개발된 수치 모형은 Thacker 문제의 결과와 비교하여 검증하였고, 경상남도 의령 지역에 사면구조 격자를 사용한 본 모형을 적용하였다. 검증 결과 본 모형의 격자는 균일 격자보다 거의 4배 정도 효율적이었으며, 정확도 측면에서도 이전 모델의 결과와 거의 일치함을 알 수 있었다. 다음은 수문 빈도를 변화시키면서 홍수 범람 양상을 수치 모의하였다. 빈도가 증가하면, 첨두 수위를 비롯한 수위 수문곡선의 크기도 증가함을 알 수 있었고, 500년 빈도에서는 제방을 월류하여, 제내지에 범람함을 예측할 수 있었다.

• Tribology and Lubricants
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.205-211
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• 2014

Recent studies emphasize the importance of pivot stiffness in the analysis of tilting pad bearings (TPBs). The present paper develops a finite element model of the pad pivot and compares the predicted pivot stiffness to the results of Hertzian contact model calculations. Specifically, a finite element analysis generates tetrahedral mesh models with ~40,000 nodes for a ball-socket pivot and ~50,000 nodes for a rocker-back pivot. These models assume a frictionless boundary condition in the contact area. Increasing the applied loads on the pad in conjunction with increasing time steps ensures rapid convergence during the nonlinear numerical analysis. Predictions are performed using the developed finite element model for increasing the differential diameters between the pad pivot (or ball) and the bearing housing (or socket). The predictions show that the pivot contact area increases with decreasing differential diameters and increasing applied loads. Further, the maximum deformation occurring at the pivot center increases with increasing differential diameters and increasing applied loads. The pivot stiffness increases nonlinearly with decreasing differential diameters and increasing applied loads. Comparisons of results of the developed finite element model to those of Hertzian contact model calculations assuming a small contact area show that the latter model underestimates the pivot stiffnesses predicted by the finite element models of the ball-socket and rocker-back pivots, particularly for small differential diameters. This result implies the need for cautionduring the design of pivot stiffness by the Hertzian contact model.

• 대한기계학회논문집B
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• 제20권12호
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• pp.4013-4026
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• 1996

A numerical simulation has been carried out for the jet impinging on a flat plate and a semi-circular concave surface. In this computation finite volume method was employed to solve the full Navier-Stokes equation based on a non-orthogonal coordinate with non staggered variable arrangement. The standard k-.epsilon. turbulent model and low Reynolds number k-.epsilon. model(Launder-Sharmar model) with Yap's correction were adapted. The accuracy of the numerical calculations were compared with various experimental data reported in the literature and showed good predictions of centerline velocity decay, wall pressure distribution and skin friction. For the jet impingement on a semi-circular concave surface, potential core length was calculated for two different nozzle(round edged nozzle and rectangular edged nozzle) to consider effects of the nozzle shape. The result showed that round edged nozzle had longer potential core length than rectangular edged nozzle for the same condition. Heat transfer rate along the concave surface with constant heat flux was calculated for various nozzle exit to surface distance(H/B) in the condition of same jet velocity. The maximum local Nusselt number at the stagnation point occurred at H/B = 8 where the centerline turbulent intensity had maximum value. The predicted Nusselt number showed good agreement with the experimental data at the stagnation point. However heat transfer predictions along the downstream were underestimated. This results suggest that the improved turbulence modeling is required.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권8호
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• pp.3097-3100
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• 2015

Projections of cancer cases are particularly useful in developing countries to plan and prioritize both diagnostic and treatment facilities. In the prediction of cancer cases for the future period say after 5 years or after 10 years, it is imperative to use the knowledge of past time trends in incidence rates as well as in population at risk. In most of the recently published studies the duration for which the time trend was assessed was more than 10 years while in few studies the duration was between 5-7 years. This raises the question as to what is the optimum time period which should be used for assessment of time trends and projections. Thus, the present paper explores the suitability of different time periods to predict the future rates so that the valid projections of cancer burden can be done for India. The cancer incidence data of selected cancer sites of Bangalore, Bhopal, Chennai, Delhi and Mumbai PBCR for the period of 1991-2009 was utilized. The three time periods were selected namely 1991-2005; 1996-2005, 1999-2005 to assess the time trends and projections. For the five selected sites, each for males and females and for each registry, the time trend was assessed and the linear regression equation was obtained to give prediction for the years 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009. These predictions were compared with actual incidence data. The time period giving the least error in prediction was adjudged as the best. The result of the current analysis suggested that for projections of cancer cases, the 10 years duration data are most appropriate as compared to 7 year or 15 year incidence data.

• 인터넷정보학회논문지
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.49-57
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• 2016

앙상블 학습 기법은 개별 모형보다 더 좋은 예측 성과를 얻기 위해 다수의 분류기를 결합하는 것으로 예측 성과를 향상시키는데에 매우 유용한 것으로 알려져 있다. 배깅은 단일 분류기의 예측 성과를 향상시키는 대표적인 앙상블 기법중의 하나이다. 배깅은 원 학습 데이터로부터 부트스트랩 샘플링 방법을 통해 서로 다른 학습 데이터를 추출하고, 각각의 부트스트랩 샘플에 대해 학습 알고리즘을 적용하여 서로 다른 다수의 기저 분류기들을 생성시키게 되며, 최종적으로 서로 다른 분류기로부터 나온 결과를 결합하게 된다. 배깅에서 부트스트랩 샘플은 원 학습 데이터로부터 램덤하게 추출한 샘플로 각각의 부트스트랩 샘플이 동일한 정보를 가지고 있지는 않으며 이로 인해 배깅 모형의 성과는 편차가 발생하게 된다. 본 논문에서는 이와 같은 부트스트랩 샘플을 최적화함으로써 표준 배깅 앙상블의 성과를 개선시키는 새로운 방법을 제안하였다. 제안한 모형에서는 앙상블 모형의 성과를 개선시키기 위해 부트스트랩 샘플링을 최적화하였으며 이를 위해 유전자 알고리즘이 활용되었다. 본 논문에서는 제안한 모형을 국내 부도 예측 문제에 적용해 보았으며, 실험 결과 제안한 모형이 우수한 성과를 보였다.

• 한국방송∙미디어공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방송공학회 2006년도 학술대회
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• pp.283-288
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• 2006

In the future television broadcasting a flood of information from various sources will not always be welcomed by everyone. The need of accessing specific information as required is becoming a necessity. We are interested to make the life of television consumer easier by providing an intelligent television set which can adaptively proposed certain shows to the viewer based on the user historical consumed shows. The TV watching history data consists of TV program titles with their respective genres, channels, watched times and durations, etc. The method proposed is by utilizing Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to model the user preference of kind of genres the viewer will watch based on recorded genres of several weeks time. We take watching schedule from 6 PM to midnight as boundary. The range thus divided into 3 independent time band of 2 hours each resulting in 3 time bands from 6 PM to 8 PM, 8 PM to 10 PM, and lastly 10 PM to midnight. Each time band will be represented by an HMM. From each HMM we can generate a sequence of predicted genre that the user will probably watch during corresponding time-band. Our approach assumes that the user shows a consistent behavior of watching pattern in week to week basis and during the moment of watching TV. To asses the method performance experiment is conducted using real data collected from December 2002 to May 2003. Some user's data are selected and based on that predictions are made. The resulting predictions are then compared with the actual user's history. The experiment shows satisfactory result for user with middle to high consistent behavior level.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제11권10호
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• pp.305-311
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• 2013

경제시장의 규모가 지속적으로 발전함에 따라 올바른 의사결정을 위하여 경제시장을 정확하게 예측하는 문제가 중요한 문제로 떠오르고 있다. 현대 경제시스템을 표현하는 다양한 경제지표 중 가장 큰 축인 주식지표의 올바른 이해와 분석 그리고 의사결정문제에 적용을 위하여 시계열자료의 모델에 적합한 은닉마아코프모델과 이를 토대로 시계열자료의 시간 및 계산비용의 절감을 위한 차원감소기법들을 모델의 추정과 예측 문제에 적용하였으며 그 유효성을 확인하였다. 실험 결과, 은닉마아코프모델과 차원감소기법을 적용한 모델 모두에서 장기예측보다는 단기의 예측에서 최적의 모델 추정과 유사패턴 예측률이 모두 실제의 자료와 매우 유사함을 확인할 수 있었다.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• 제32권3호
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• pp.280-290
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• 2016

Stem diameter variability is an essential inventory result that provides useful information in forest management decisions. Little has been done to explore the modelling potentials of standard deviation (SDD) and coefficient of variation (CVD) of diameter at breast height (dbh). This study, therefore, was aimed at developing and testing models for predicting SDD and CVD in stands of Pinus caribaea Morelet (pine) in south west Nigeria. Sixty temporary sample plots of size $20m{\times}20m$, ranging between 15 and 37 years were sampled, covering the entire range of pine in south west Nigeria. The dbh (cm), total and merchantable heights (m), number of stems and age of trees were measured within each plot. Basal area ($m^2$), site index (m), relative spacing and percentile positions of dbh at $24^{th}$, $63^{rd}$, $76^{th}$ and $93^{rd}$ (i.e. $P_{24}$, $P_{63}$, $P_{76}$ and $P_{93}$) were computed from measured variables for each plot. Linear mixed model (LMM) was used to test the effects of locations (fixed) and plots (random). Six candidate models (3 for SDD and 3 for CVD), using three categories of explanatory variables (i.e. (i) only stand size measures, (ii) distribution measures, and (iii) combination of i and ii). The best model was chosen based on smaller relative standard error (RSE), prediction residual sum of squares (PRESS), corrected Akaike Information Criterion ($AIC_c$) and larger coefficient of determination ($R^2$). The results of the LMM indicated that location and plot effects were not significant. The CVD and SDD models having only measures of percentiles (i.e. $P_{24}$ and $P_{93}$) as predictors produced better predictions than others. However, CVD model produced the overall best predictions, because of the lower RSE and stability in measuring variability across different stand developments. The results demonstrate the potentials of CVD in modelling stem diameter variability in relationship with percentiles variables.

• 대한기계학회논문집
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• 제16권5호
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• pp.891-898
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• 1992

본 연구에서는 기존의 방식들의 단점들을 극복할 수 있고 회전하는 외팔보의 굽힘 진동 특성을 효과적으로 정확하게 예측할 수 있는 일관성 있고 간명한 방법을 제 시하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 참고문헌(9-11)에서는 회전하는 외팔보의 선형 운동방정 식을 복합 변형변수를 이용하여 구하고 있는데 이러한 동적모데링은 참고문헌(4-8)에 서와 같은 불필요한 원심력의 내재적 대입과정을 통한 2단계 운동 방정식 유도를 피할 수 있어 과정의 일관성과 간명성을 제공할 수 있음을 보였다. 본 연구에서는 이들 연구 결과에 근거하여 진동해석을 위한 방법을 제공하고 결과를 도출 분석 비교하는 것을 그 내용으로 한다.

• 한국의류학회지
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• 제42권3호
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• pp.503-515
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• 2018

In this research, the three-dimensional structural and colorimetrical modeling of yarn-dyed woven fabrics was conducted based on the Kubelka-Munk theory (K-M theory) for their accurate color predictions. In the K-M theory for textile color formulation, the absorption and scattering coefficients, denoted K and S, respectively, of a colored fabric are represented using those of the individual colorants or color components used. One-hundred forty woven fabric samples were produced in a wide range of structures and colors using red, yellow, green, and blue yarns. Through the optimization of previous two-dimensional color prediction models by considering the key three-dimensional structural parameters of woven fabrics, three three-dimensional K/S-based color prediction models, that is, linear K/S, linear log K/S, and exponential K/S models, were developed. To evaluate the performance of the three-dimensional color prediction models, the color differences, ${\Delta}L^*$, ${\Delta}C^*$, ${\Delta}h^{\circ}$, and ${\Delta}E_{CMC(2:1)}$, between the predicted and the measured colors of the samples were calculated as error values and then compared with those of previous two-dimensional models. As a result, three-dimensional models have proved to be of substantially higher predictive accuracy than two-dimensional models in all lightness, chroma, and hue predictions with much lower ${\Delta}L^*$, ${\Delta}C^*$, ${\Delta}h^{\circ}$, and the resultant ${\Delta}E_{CMC(2:1)}$ values.