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Predicting Crime Risky Area Using Machine Learning (머신러닝기반 범죄발생 위험지역 예측)

  • HEO, Sun-Young;KIM, Ju-Young;MOON, Tae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.64-80
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    • 2018
  • In Korea, citizens can only know general information about crime. Thus it is difficult to know how much they are exposed to crime. If the police can predict the crime risky area, it will be possible to cope with the crime efficiently even though insufficient police and enforcement resources. However, there is no prediction system in Korea and the related researches are very much poor. From these backgrounds, the final goal of this study is to develop an automated crime prediction system. However, for the first step, we build a big data set which consists of local real crime information and urban physical or non-physical data. Then, we developed a crime prediction model through machine learning method. Finally, we assumed several possible scenarios and calculated the probability of crime and visualized the results in a map so as to increase the people's understanding. Among the factors affecting the crime occurrence revealed in previous and case studies, data was processed in the form of a big data for machine learning: real crime information, weather information (temperature, rainfall, wind speed, humidity, sunshine, insolation, snowfall, cloud cover) and local information (average building coverage, average floor area ratio, average building height, number of buildings, average appraised land value, average area of residential building, average number of ground floor). Among the supervised machine learning algorithms, the decision tree model, the random forest model, and the SVM model, which are known to be powerful and accurate in various fields were utilized to construct crime prevention model. As a result, decision tree model with the lowest RMSE was selected as an optimal prediction model. Based on this model, several scenarios were set for theft and violence cases which are the most frequent in the case city J, and the probability of crime was estimated by $250{\times}250m$ grid. As a result, we could find that the high crime risky area is occurring in three patterns in case city J. The probability of crime was divided into three classes and visualized in map by $250{\times}250m$ grid. Finally, we could develop a crime prediction model using machine learning algorithm and visualized the crime risky areas in a map which can recalculate the model and visualize the result simultaneously as time and urban conditions change.

Analysis on Socio-cultural Aspect of Willingness to Pay for Air Quality (PM10, PM2.5) Improvement in Seoul (서울지역 미세먼지 문제 개선을 위한 사회문화적 지불의사액 추정)

  • Kim, Jaewan;Jung, Taeyong;Lee, Taedong;Lee, Dong Kun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2019
  • Over the last few years, air pollution ($PM_{10}$, $PM_{2.5}$) in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA) has emerged as one of the most concerned and threatening environmental issues among the residents. It brings about various harmful effects on human health, as well as ecosystem and industrial activities. Governments and individuals pay various costs to mitigate the level of air pollutants. This study aims to empirically find the willingness to pays (WTP) among the parents from different socio-cultural groups - international and domestic groups to mitigate air pollution ($PM_{10}$, $PM_{2.5}$) in their residential area. Contingent Valuation Methods (CVM) is used with employing single-bounded dichotomous choice technique to elicit the respondent's WTP. Using tobit (censored regression) and probit models, the monthly mean WTP of the pooled sample for green electricity which contributes to improve air quality in the region was estimated as 3,993 KRW (3.58 USD). However, the mean WTP between the international group and domestic group through a sub-sample analysis shows broad distinction as 3,325KRW (2.98 USD) and 4,449 KRW (3.98 USD) respectively. This is because that socio-cultural characteristics of each group such as socio-economic status, personal experience, trust in institutions and worldview are differently associated with the WTP. Based on the results, the society needs to raise awareness of lay people to find a strong linkage between the current PM issue and green electricity. Also, it needs to improve trust in the government's pollution abatement policy to mobilize more assertive participation of the people from different socio-cultural background.

A Study on the Sustainable Ewha Mural Village in a Viewpoint of Urban Regeneration (도시재생 관점에서 지속가능한 이화동 벽화마을에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, bo-mi;Son, Yong-Hoon;Lee, Dong-Kun;Lee, Hyun-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to propose a sustainable village-unit urban regeneration plan for the Ewha Mural Village, where mural artists recovered concrete fences to be followed by some residents damaging the mural paintings. Through a review of the existing literature and a preliminary survey, we derived the urban regeneration factors (environmental sustainability, economic sustainability, and social sustainability) applicable at the village level. After an empirical survey on the residents, we tried to identify various problems of the Ewha Mural Village. Residents selected the factors of accessibility, parking management, diversity of industries, creation of new jobs, community participation of residents for the mural village's activation, and stable living spaces. In the case of Ewha Mural Village, physical environment factors for the residents at the time of construction were not considered and the village was mainly planned using budget-based murals. Since then, the inequality of economic benefits intensified the conflicts among the residents. In addition, public benefits, such as establishing new industries and employing outsiders, were not provided, and these facts appear to have led to an unsustainable murals village, in which the murals that are the protagonists of the village revitalization are being destroyed. Therefore, the urban regeneration of Ewha Mural Village should be designed considering a region where some residential areas can be transformed into tourist areas. In addition, it is essential to employ a win-win method to improve the living environment, such as road maintenance, not only partial economic benefits, such as increased land-value, and to increase resident's value as a common asset within the village itself.

The Manchus and ginseng in the Qing period (만주족과 인삼)

  • Kim, Seonmin
    • Journal of Ginseng Culture
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    • v.1
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    • pp.11-27
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    • 2019
  • The Jurchens, the ancestors of the Qing Manchus, had lived scattered in Manchuria and had made their living mostly on ginseng gathering and animal hunting. Their residential areas, rich with deep forest and numerous rivers, provided great habitation for all kinds of flora and fauna, but not so proper for agriculture. Based on their activities of foraging and hunting, the Jurchens developed a unique social organization that was later transformed into the Banner System, the most distinctive Qing military institution. By the sixteenth century, that the external trade brought considerable changes to Jurchen society. A huge amount of foreign silver, imported from Japan and South America to China, first invigorated commercial economy in China proper, and later caused a huge influence on Ming frontier regions, including Manchuria. In the late sixteenth century when the tradition of foraging and hunting encountered with silver economy, the Jurchen tribes became unified after years of competition and transformed themselves into the Manchus to build the Qing empire in 1636. In 1644 the Manchus succeeded in conquering the China Proper and moved into Beijing. Even after that, the Manchu imperial court never forgot the value of Manchurii ginseng; instead, they paid great efforts to monopolize this profitable root. Until the late seventeenth century, the Qing court used the Banner System to manage Manchurian ginseng. The banner soldiers stationed in Manchuria checked unauthorized civilian entrances in this frontier and protected its ginseng producing mountains from the Han Chinese people. All the process of ginseng gathering was managed by the institutions under the direct control of the imperial court, such as the Imperial Household Department, the Butha Ula Office, and the Three Upper Banner in Shengjing. Banner soldiers were dispatched to the given mountains, collect the given amount of ginseng, and send them to the imperial court in Beijing. The state monopoly of ginseng was maintained throughout the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries under the principle that Manchuria and its natural resources should be guarded from civilian encroachment. At the same time, Manchurian ginseng was considered as an important source of state revenue. The imperial court and financial bureau wanted to collect ginseng as much as they needed. By the late seventeenth century as the ginseng management by the banner soldiers failed in securing the ginseng tax, the Qing court began to invite civil merchants to ginseng business. During the eighteenth century the Qing ginseng policy became more dependent on civil merchants, both their money and management. In 1853 the Qing finally ended the ginseng monopoly, but it was before the early eighteenth century that wealthy merchants hired ginseng gatherers and paid ginseng tax to the state. The Qing monopoly of ginseng was in fact maintained by the active participation of civil merchants in the ginseng business.

A Study on Classifications and Trends with Convergence Form Characteristics of Architecture in Tall Buildings (초고층빌딩의 융합적 건축형태 분류와 경향에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Sang Jun
    • Korea Science and Art Forum
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.119-133
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    • 2019
  • This study is as skyscrapers are becoming increasingly taller, more constructors have decided the height alone cannot be a sufficient differentiator. As a result, atypical architecture is emerging as a new competitive factor. Also, it can be used for symbolizing the economic competitiveness of a country, city, or business through its form. Before the introduction of digital media, there was a discrepancy between the structure and form of a building and correcting this discrepancy required a separate structural medium. Since the late 1980s, however, digitally-based atypical form development began to be used experimentally, and, until the 2000s, it was used mostly for super-tall skyscrapers for offices or for industrial chimneys and communication towers. Since the 2000s, many global brand hotels and commercial and residential buildings have been built as super-tall skyscrapers, which shows the recent trend in architecture that is moving beyond the traditional limits. Complex atypical structure is formed and the formative characteristics of diagonal lines and curved surfaces, which are characteristics of atypical architecture, are created digitally. Therefore, it's goal is necessary to identify a new relationship between the structure and forms. According to the data of Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH), 100-story and taller buildings were classified into typical, diagonal, curved, and segment types in order to define formative shapes of super-tall skyscrapers and provide a ground of the design process related to the initial formation of the concept. The purpose of this study was to identify the correlation between different forms for building atypical architectural shapes that are complex and diverse. The study results are presented as follows: Firstly, complex function follows convergence form characteristics. Secondly, fold has inside of architecture with repeat. Thirdly, as curve style which has pure twist, helix twist, and spiral twist. The findings in this study can be used as basic data for classifying and predicting trends of the future super-tall skyscrapers.

Predicting Healthy Lifestyle Patterns in Older Community Dwelling Adults: A Latent Profile Analysis (잠재프로파일 분석을 활용한 한국 노인 라이프스타일 유형화와 영향요인 분석)

  • Park, Kang-Hyun;Yang, Min Ah;Won, Kyung-A;Park, Ji-Hyuk
    • Therapeutic Science for Rehabilitation
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.75-93
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    • 2021
  • Objective : The aim of this study was to identify subgroups of older adults with respect to their lifestyle patterns and examine the characteristics of each subgroup in order to provide a basic evidence for improving the health and quality of life. Methods : This cross-sectional study was conducted in South Korea. Community-dwelling older adults (n=184) above the age of 65 years were surveyed from April 2019 to May 2019. This study used latent profile analysis to examine the subgroups. Chi-squared (χ2) and multinomial logistic regression measures were then used to analyze individual characteristics and influencing factors. Results : The pattern of physical activity which is one of the lifestyle domains in elderly was categorized into three types: 'passive exercise type (31.1%)', 'low intensity exercise type (54.5%)', and 'balanced exercise type(14.5%)'. Activity participation was divided into three patterns: 'inactive type (12%)', 'self-management type (61%)', and 'balanced activity participation type (27%)'. In terms of nutrition, there were only two groups: 'overall malnutrition type (13.5%)' and 'balanced nutrition type (86.5%)'. Furthermore, as a result of the multinomial logistic regression analysis to understand the effects of lifestyle types on the health and quality of life of the elderly, it was confirmed that the health and quality of life were higher in those following an active and balanced lifestyle. In addition, gender, education level and residential area were analyzed as predictive factors. Conclusion : The health and quality of life of the elderly can be improved when they have balanced lifestyle. Therefore, an empirical and policy intervention strategy should be developed and implemented to enhance the health and quality of life of the elderly.

Human Thermal Environment Analysis with Local Climate Zones and Surface Types in the Summer Nighttime - Homesil Residential Development District, Suwon-si, Gyeonggi-do (Local Climate Zone과 토지피복에 따른 여름철 야간의 인간 열환경 분석 - 경기도 수원시 호매실 택지개발지구)

  • Kong, Hak-Yang;Choi, Nakhoon;Park, Sookuk
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.227-237
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    • 2020
  • Microclimatic data were measured, and the human thermal sensation was analyzed at 10 local climate zones based on the major land cover classification to investigate the thermal environment of urban areas during summer nighttime. From the results, the green infrastructure areas (GNIAs) showed an average air temperature of 1.6℃ and up to 2.4℃ lower air temperature than the gray infrastructure areas (GYIAs), and the GNIAs showed an average relative humidity of 9.0% and up to 15.0% higher relative humidity. The wind speed of the GNIAs and GYIAs had minimal difference and showed no significance at all locations, except for the forest location, which had the lowest wind speed owing to the influence of trees. The local winds and the surface roughness, which was determined based on the heights of buildings and trees, appeared to be the main factors that influenced wind speed. At the mean radiant temperature, the forest location showed the maximum value, owing to the influence of trees. Except at the forest location, the GNIAs showed an average decrease of 5.5℃ compared to GYIAs. The main factor that influenced the mean radiant temperature was the sky view factor. In the analysis of the human thermal sensation, the GNIAs showed a "neutral" thermal perception level that was neither hot nor cold, and the GYIAs showed a "slightly warm" level, which was a level higher than those of the GNIAs. The GNIAs showed a 3.2℃ decrease compared to the GYIAs, except at the highest forest location, which indicated a half-level improvement in the human thermal environment.

The Yongsan Governor General Official Residence in Korean Landscape Architectural History (용산 총독관저 정원의 조경사적 의의)

  • Kim, Hai-Gyoung;Yu, Joo-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.118-129
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    • 2011
  • This study is about the governor general's official residence and its garden in Yongsan that were constructed during the Japanese occupational time. The garden design drawing was also made while planning such Neo-Baroque style building, and it contains particular information of the garden unlike the other existing landscape drawings. The content of garden translated and landscape historical value drawn out by analysis of garden drawings, press articles and literatures are as follows; First, such governor general's official residence garden in Yongsan is likely to be the Korean first western style landscape form. For, from the point that it was completely constructed together with such official residential building in 1909, its construction time should be before that of the garden of Seokjojeon, Deoksu Palace, which was constructed in 1911. Second, it shows the garden style and garden planting factors introduced together with the modern architecture then. Such garden planting factors are placed from the center axis of the garden that is connected to the center of the building and monument as well. Such style and factors cover and show the flower bed appearing in Baroque style gardens, the monument that forms Vista playing the center of audience's vision, water space that is placed symmetrically against the axis, planting pattern that emphasizes the plants' space, flower bed shape and axis, and what kinds of plants were introduced then. Third, it shows the using pattern of western style gardens. Western style garden parties used to take in place in this garden while official dinner and reception were held in the evening in the official residence. Fourth, it shows the historical value as a modern landscape drawing, which is the Korean first landscape drawing that shows the plants' names and planting techniques marking the current height and planned height for change of topography and water system as a water landscape factor. That is, this drawing has the value that it was upgraded from the other existing ones that expressed only simple plants' symbols or flower bed shapes. I, therefore, hope that the studies on the modern landscape would be getting wider by excavation of new historical records in the future.

The Determinants of Consumption Characteristics and Patterns of Elderly Households (고령자 가구의 소비특성 및 소비패턴 결정요인)

  • Kim, Jinhun
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.905-926
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    • 2016
  • Although the concept of the elderly varies depending on scholars and laws, as consumption expenditure is deeply associated with income due to the nature of this study, 55 years old was set as the low limit standard for the elderly according to Prohibition of Discrimination on Age in Employment and Employment Promotion for the Aged Act and the elderly households were limited to single-elderly person household and an elderly couple family household for this study. It is considered consumption characteristics as a significant analysis subject in terms of social welfare because it could be understood as an expressed need which was a reflection of desire. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate the consumption characteristics of the elderly households by stereotyping the consumption pattern of the elderly households, and find the determining factors for consumption patterns and thus contribute to the establishment of related policies through the expressed needs of the elderly households. K-means of cluster analysis was performed by putting the consumption expenditure of the elderly households to investigate inherent structural type of consumption pattern of the elderly households, which were the investigation subjects. As a result, four groups were stereotyped and named as below: 'health care-centered type', 'saving-centered type', 'livelihood-centered type', and 'food expenses-centered type' Binary Logistic Regression analysis was used to identify the factors that influence the decision of consumption pattern of the elderly households. The result of study showed that the elderly households faced all different needs and problems and thus there is a need for various approach plans to solve this situation. In particular, although the elderly have been viewed as economically poor people so far, the study showed that there were also kind of prepared households through saving. Overall, livelihoodcentered type accounted for the highest portion and, as a factor that influenced this, marital state and household income played an important role. Therefore, it is considered that more active efforts to increase the income of the elderly households are needed. In addition, age, owning of house and subjective health state were found to also have significant influence. Through these results of the study, the elderly's own improvement of awareness on health, presentation of overall standard for health state of the elderly, securement of the elderly's access to cultural life, and financial management coordination for improvement of quality of life, development and dissemination of jobs suitable for the elderly, and dissemination of communal life household, which is a cooperation residential type, were presented as institutional task in the conclusion.

Management of Naturalized Citizens from Yeozin and Its Limitation Through the Event of Guilsang(吉尙) in the Early 17th Century - Centering on 『Naturalization Registration』 (길상사건(吉尙事件)을 통해 본 17세기 초 향화호인(向化胡人) 관리 실태와 한계 - 『향화인등록(向化人謄錄)』을 중심으로 -)

  • Yi, Sun Hui
    • (The)Study of the Eastern Classic
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    • no.37
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    • pp.93-126
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    • 2009
  • This study is about a event, which happened on January of 1603 in Hamheung. It has covered from the beginning through the conclusion of the event. The event was ignited by a naturalized citizen, Guilsang's coming to the capital city without permission from the government. With this study I've wished to find the situations of specific management of naturalized citizens as well as popular attitudes towards them at the time. Concerning with the event of Guilsang, I could find more detailed situations from "Naturalization Registration". The reason why Guilsang came to Seoul was that he wanted to ask for living together with his son-in-law's family in Yang-Ju. Before his coming, Bie-Byun-Sa had sent a official letter to the governor of Hamkyung-Do so that he had had to move somewhere between Anbyun and Yung-heung. But Guilsang had wanted to live with his whole family in Seoul. The place he visited first was Sa-Yuk-Won. He presented his petition through Yeozin language translator there. Sa-Yuk-Won then informed Ye-Jo to have him investigated. After its investigation, Ye-Jo reported to the king. There were arguments about Guilsang family in the government. Guilsang had wanted to live with his whole family, including his relatives and son-in-law. Guilsang's request had more pros than cons in terms of humanism. But letting him live in Seoul was a difficult decision for the government. but his family strenuously insisted on living in Seoul, trying to kill itself. Finally Government selected Yong-In which was a compromise between the naturalized citizens' wish and difficult position of Government. Yong-In Miejo-Hyun was a poor region where naturalized citizens had lived before but now empty after the wars. In the process of the event of Guilsang, Government differentiated naturalized citizens from general citizens and regarded them foreign. A man from Yeozin was naturalized due to economic reason. But, he couldn't accept to live somewhere except Seoul, separating from his family. Government concerned with dangers of naturalized citizen becoming into foreign agents and stabilization of borders. These concerns caused the policy of residential control and decentralization of naturalized citizens failed.