• 제목/요약/키워드: reliability prediction

검색결과 1,207건 처리시간 0.027초

Web 기반의 농산물 유통분석 통합 시스템 개발 (Development of a Web-based Integrated System for Flow of Agricultural Products)

  • 서교;이정재;김태곤
    • 농촌계획
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2005
  • This study is to develop a web-based integrated system for flow of agricultural products based on recent researches with engineering approach. The system stands on the basis of web for accessibility and usability. Three parts of the system consist of analysis of regional shipping characteristics using tank model, estimation of pallet load efficiency with Monte Carlo Simulation, a long term prediction of market price with reliability analysis. Besides a decision support module for selecting optimal shipping market is added through synthesizing techniques and spatial analysis using GIS and applied to Chinese cabbage of Pyeongchang in 2004.

경년열화된 지중 MV급 케이블의 Aging Index (A Health Index of Aged Undeground MV Cables in Domestic)

  • 김용현;김수환;이승원;임장섭
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2015년도 제46회 하계학술대회
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    • pp.1216-1216
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    • 2015
  • In this study, the author apply the VLF(Very Low Frequency) tan-delta data that has been measured at each office of the KEPCO 2012 to the Weibull distribution which is the statistical analysis as previous studies for the remaining life prediction through the improvement of the sensitivity and reliability of the degradation state assessment of underground distribution power cables. Also, in this paper, UCD(Used Cable Diagnosis) Matrix proposed by KEPCO was applied to the hierarchy of assessment prioritization. it suggests Aging Index for condition assessment and high reliability of proper economic replacement cycle using the weight according to the assessment prioritization.

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PSA의 인간신뢰도분석 모델의 적용 (An Application of the HRA Methodology in PSA: A Gas Valve Station)

  • 제무성
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제15권4호
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    • pp.150-156
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, the human error contributions to the system unavailability are calculated and compared to the mechanical failure contributions. The system unavailability is a probability that a system is in the failed state at time t, given that it was the normal state at time zero. It is a function of human errors committed during maintenance and tests, component failure rates, surveillance test intervals, and allowed outage time. The THERP (Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction), generally called "HRA handbook", is used here for evaluating human error rates. This method treats the operator as one of the system components, and human reliability is assessed in the same manner as that of components. Based on the calculation results, the human error contribution to the system unavailability is shown to be more important than the mechanical failure contribution in the example system. It is also demonstrated that this method is very flexible in that it can be applied to any hazardous facilities, such as gas valve stations and chemical process plants.ss plants.

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신경망을 활용한 사석식 방파제의 파괴확률예측 (Prediction of Failure Probability of Breakwater using Neural Network)

  • 김동현;박우선;한상훈
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • 제25권spc3호
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    • pp.347-351
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    • 2003
  • A new approach to reliability analysis of rubble mound breakwater using neural network is proposed. At first, a neural network model which can estimate the stability number of any breakwaters for some design conditions is trained. Then, the neural network model is integrated with Monte Carlo simulation technique in order to calculate probability of failure for the breakwater. The proposed technique is compared with conventional approach using empirical formula.

Effect of Boundary Conditions of Failure Pressure Models on Reliability Estimation of Buried Pipelines

  • Lee, Ouk-Sub;Pyun, Jang-Sik;Kim, Dong-Hyeok
    • International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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    • 제4권6호
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    • pp.12-19
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents the effect of boundary conditions in various failure pressure models published for the estimation of failure pressure. Furthermore, this approach is extended to the failure prediction with the aid of a failure probability model. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function is used in order to estimate the probability of failure associated with each corrosion defect in buried pipelines for long exposure period with unit of years. A failure probability model based on the von-Mises failure criterion is adapted. The log-normal and standard normal probability functions for varying random variables are adapted. The effects of random variables such as defect depth, pipe diameter, defect length, fluid pressure, corrosion rate, material yield stress, material ultimate tensile strength and pipe thickness on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are systematically investigated for the corrosion pipeline by using an adapted failure probability model and varying failure pressure model.

Prediction of Dynamic Expected Time to System Failure

  • Oh, Deog-Yeon;Lee, Chong-Chul
    • 한국원자력학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국원자력학회 1997년도 추계학술발표회논문집(1)
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    • pp.244-250
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    • 1997
  • The mean time to failure (MTTF) expressing the mean value of the system life is a measure of system effectiveness. To estimate the remaining life of component and/or system, the dynamic mean time to failure concept is suggested. It is the time-dependent Property depending on the status of components. The Kalman filter is used to estimate the reliability of components using the on-line information (directly measured sensor output or device-specific diagnostics in the intelligent sensor) in form of the numerical value (state factor). This factor considers the persistency of the fault condition and confidence level in measurement. If there is a complex system with many components, each calculated reliability's or components are combined, which results in the dynamic MTTF or system. The illustrative examples are discussed. The results show that the dynamic MTTF can well express the component and system failure behaviour whether any kinds of failure are occurred or not.

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Thyristor 성능 진단기술에 관한 연구 (A Study on Diagnostic Technics for Thyristor)

  • 원학재;한정훈;천영식;박호철
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2000년도 하계학술대회 논문집 B
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    • pp.1330-1332
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    • 2000
  • In general, the expected life of power semiconductor elements is known for semi-permanent, but actual characteristics are changed according to the such environment conditions obviously because of using time or operating condition. Specially, in case of using at the power plant it is very important to sustain reliability for power semiconductor which it affect to stop operating condition as deterioration or break. Therefore, we need to apply maintenance technics to got the reliability which is a prediction method of life cycle. This paper shows the result of the analyzed data for element characteristic and effects used practically and we had developed the effective equipment which for diagnostic the semiconductor performance.

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견인전동기의 고강예측 및 신뢰성 평가를 위한 복합가속열화 상태진단 - 고전압 인가에 따른 유전손실 및 부분방전 특성 연구 (Condition Diagnosis by the Complex Accelerating Degradation for Fault Prediction & Estimation of Reliability on the Traction Motor - Dielectric loss and PD Properties according to High Voltage)

  • 왕종배;백종현;변윤섭;박현준
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2000년도 하계학술대회 논문집 B
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    • pp.1371-1373
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, the complex accelerating degradation of traction motor driven with VVVF controlled inverter were performed on the form coil samples with the 200 Class insulation system. in order to evaluate the reliability and the long-term life. After aging, the dielectric and PD properties were investigated on the 10 cycles aging sample in the range of $20{\sim}160[^{\circ}C]$ and AC $250{\sim}2250[V]$ to diagnosis the condition of end-life and find the dominative factors of degradation.

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견인전동기의 고장예측 및 신뢰성 평가를 위한 복합가속열화 상태진단 - 절연저항 및 성극지수 특성 연구 (Condition Diagnosis by the Complex Accelerating Degradation for fault Prediction & estimation of reliability on the traction motor - Insulation Resistance & Polarization Index Properties)

  • 왕종배;변윤섭;백종현;박현준
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2000년도 하계학술대회 논문집 B
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    • pp.1374-1376
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, sample coils for stator form-wound winding of traction motor were tested by the accelerative thermal degradation, which composed of heat, vibration, moisture and overvoltage applying. Reliability and expected life were evaluated on the insulation system for 200 class traction motor. After aging of 10 cycles, insulation resistance and PI properties were investigated as diagnosis tests in the range of $20{\sim}160^{\circ}C$. Analysis of polarization properties was performed on the base of do current-time change.

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고무 방현재의 사용 수명 예측 (Prediction of Service Life of The Rubber Fender)

  • 이세희;박준형;김광섭
    • 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.87-100
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    • 2008
  • The rubber fender is used to absorb the berthing energy that is produced when a ship is near a port, and it prevents collision between the ship and port. If the rubber fender becomes defective, the berthing energy cannot be absorbed when it is near the port, and damage can result from collisions due to the hardening process. In this research, when the rubber fender is heated, collisions can cause cracks and other damage. It is also confirmed from the research the lifetime distribution of the rubber fender. The researcher has predicted using different variables and elongation that a rubber fender has an 11year lifespan at $20^{\circ}C$.

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