• 제목/요약/키워드: reliability prediction

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스미스 예측기와 그레이 예측 방법을 적용한 시간 지연이 있는 비 가시 환경에서의 원격로봇제어 (Teleoperation by using Smith prediction and Grey prediction with a Time-delay in a Non-visible Environment)

  • 정재훈;김덕수;이장명
    • 로봇학회논문지
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.277-284
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    • 2016
  • A new prediction scheme has been proposed for the robust teleoperation in a non-visible environment. The positioning error caused by the time delay in the non-visible environment has been compensated for by the Smith predictor and the sensory data have been estimated by the Grey model. The Smith predictor is effective for the compensation of the positioning error caused by the time delay with a precise system model. Therefore the dynamic model of a mobile robot has been used in this research. To minimize the unstable and erroneous states caused by the time delay, the estimated sensor data have been sent to the operator. Through simulations, the possibility of compensating the errors caused by the time delay has been verified using the Smith predictor. Also the estimation reliability of the measurement data has been demonstrated. Robust teleoperations in a non-visible environment have been performed with a mobile robot to avoid the obstacles effective to go to the target position by the proposed prediction scheme which combines the Smith predictor and the Grey model. Even though the human operator is involved in the teleoperation loop, the compensation effects have been clearly demonstrated.

에너지 빅데이터를 활용한 머신러닝 기반의 생산 예측 모형 연구 (A Study on Production Prediction Model using a Energy Big Data based on Machine Learning)

  • 강미영;김석
    • 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정보통신학회 2022년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.453-456
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    • 2022
  • 전력망의 역할은 안정적인 전력공급이 최우선이다. 예고 없는 불안정한 상황에 대한 여러 가지 대비에 대한 방안이 필요하다. 기상 데이터를 활용하여 탐구적 데이터 분석을 통한 피처 간의 관계를 파악하여 머신러닝 기반의 에너지 생산 예측 모형을 모델링한다. 본 연구에서는 주성분분석을 사용하여 에너지 생산 예측 시 영향을 미치는 피처를 추출하였으며 머신러닝 모델에 적용함으로써 예측 신뢰도를 높였다. 제안한 모형을 사용하여 특정 기간을 대상으로 생산 에너지를 예측하고 해당 시점의 실제 생산 값과 비교함으로써 주성분분석을 적용한 에너지 생산 예측에 대한 성능을 확인하였다.

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체계신뢰성에 기초한 교량의 시스템여용성 및 저항강도 평가 (SYSTEM RELIABILITY-BASED EVALUATION OF BRIDGE SYSTEM REDUNDANCY AND STRENGTH)

  • 조효남;이승재;임종권
    • 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산구조공학회 1993년도 가을 학술발표회논문집
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    • pp.240-247
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    • 1993
  • The precise prediction of reserved carrying capacity of bridge as a system is extremely difficult especially when the bridges are highly redundant and significantly deteriorated or damaged. This paper is intended to propose a new approach for the evaluation of reserved system carrying capacity of bridges in terms of equivalent system-strength, which may be defined as a bridge system-strength corresponding to the system reliability of the bridge. This can be derived from an inverse process based on the concept of FOSM form of system reliability index. It may be emphasized that this approach is very useful for the evaluation of the deterministic system redundancy and reserve strength which are measured in terms of either probabilistic system redundancy factor and reserve factor or deterministic system redundancy factor and reserve factor. The system reliability of bridges is formulated as a parallel-series model obtained from the FAM(Failure Mode Approach) based on the major failure mechanisms. AFOSM and IST methods are used for the reliability analysis of the proposed models. The proposed approach and method for the system redundancy and reserve safety/strength are applied to the safety assessment of actual RC and steel box-girder bridges. The results of the evaluation of reserved system safety or bridge system-strength in terms of the system redundancy and the system safety/strength are significantly different from those of element reliability-based or conventional methods.

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피스톤 조립체의 수명예측을 위한 가속실험모델에 관한연구 (A study on the accelerated life test model for life prediction of piston assemblies)

  • 이용범;김형의;송규조;김태석
    • 한국신뢰성학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국신뢰성학회 2006년도 학술발표대회 논문집
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    • pp.116-125
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    • 2006
  • Piston assemblies, which are key components of hydraulic high pressure pumps & motors, are major failure products operating at high pressure and high speed, and the main failure mode is wearout of the shoe surface. To predict the actual life of piston assemblies. we require to find out the most sensitive parameters and establish related empirical formula. In this study, we analyzed the life of piston and shoe assemblies in accordance with variation of speed, pressure, and temperature to reduce the life test time, then analyzed the result of combined accelerated life test which is applied by high speed, speed pressure, and high temperature simultaneously, and finally developed combined accelerated life test model.

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Mobile Resource Reliability-based Job Scheduling for Mobile Grid

  • Jang, Sung-Ho;Lee, Jong-Sik
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제5권1호
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    • pp.83-104
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    • 2011
  • Mobile grid is a combination of grid computing and mobile computing to build grid systems in a wireless mobile environment. The development of network technology is assisting in realizing mobile grid. Mobile grid based on established grid infrastructures needs effective resource management and reliable job scheduling because mobile grid utilizes not only static grid resources but also dynamic grid resources with mobility. However, mobile devices are considered as unavailable resources in traditional grids. Mobile resources should be integrated into existing grid sites. Therefore, this paper presents a mobile grid middleware interconnecting existing grid infrastructures with mobile resources and a mobile service agent installed on the mobile resources. This paper also proposes a mobile resource reliability-based job scheduling model in order to overcome the unreliability of wireless mobile devices and guarantee stable and reliable job processing. In the proposed job scheduling model, the mobile service agent calculates the mobile resource reliability of each resource by using diverse reliability metrics and predicts it. The mobile grid middleware allocated jobs to mobile resources by predicted mobile resource reliability. We implemented a simulation model that simplifies various functions of the proposed job scheduling model by using the DEVS (Discrete Event System Specification) which is the formalism for modeling and analyzing a general system. We also conducted diverse experiments for performance evaluation. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model can assist in improving the performance of mobile grid in comparison with existing job scheduling models.

Stepped Isothermal Methods Using Time-Temperature Superposition Principles for Lifetime Prediction of Polyester Geogrids

  • Koo Hyun-Jin;Kim You-Kyum;Kim Dong-Whan
    • 한국신뢰성학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국신뢰성학회 2005년도 학술발표대회 논문집
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    • pp.69-73
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    • 2005
  • The failure of geogrids used for soil reinforcement application can be defined as an excessive creep strain which causes the collapse of slopes and embankments. Accordingly, the lifetime is evaluated as a time to reach the excessive creep strain using two accelerated creep testing methods, time-temperature superposition(TTS) and stepped isothermal methods(SIM). TTS is a well-accepted acceleration method to evaluate creep behavior of polymeric materials, while SIM was developed in the last ten years mainly to shorten testing time and minimize the uncertainty associated with inherent variability of multi-specimen tests. The SIM test is usually performed using single rib of geogrids for temperature steps of $14^{\circ}C$ and a dwell time of 10,000 seconds. However, for multi-ribs of geogrids, the applicability of the SIM has not been well established. In this study, the creep behaviors are evaluated using multi-ribs of polyester geogrids using SIM and TTS creep procedures and the newly designed test equipment. Then the lifetime of geogrids are predicted by analyzing the failure times to reach the excessive creep strains through reliability analysis.

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초고온 가스로용 Alloy 617의 크리프 수명예측 신뢰성 평가 (Reliability Evaluation on Creep Life Prediction of Alloy 617 for a Very High Temperature Reactor)

  • 김우곤;박재영;김선진;홍성덕;김용완
    • 대한금속재료학회지
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    • 제50권10호
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    • pp.721-728
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    • 2012
  • This paper evaluates the reliability of creep rupture life under service conditions of Alloy 617, which is considered as one of the candidate materials for use in a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) system. A Z-parameter, which represents the deviation of creep rupture data from the master curve, was used for the reliability analysis of the creep rupture data of Alloy 617. A Service-condition Creep Rupture Interference (SCRI) model, which can consider both the scattering of the creep rupture data and the fluctuations of temperature and stress under any service conditions, was also used for evaluating the reliability of creep rupture life. The statistical analysis showed that the scattering of creep rupture data based on Z-parameter was supported by normal distribution. The values of reliability decreased rapidly with increasing amplitudes of temperature and stress fluctuations. The results established that the reliability decreased with an increasing service time.

철도시스템 이상진단 및 예지정비를 위한 FMEA 분석 방안 연구 (A Study on FMEA Analysis Method for Fault Diagnosis and Predictive Maintenance of the Railway Systems)

  • 오왕석;김경화;김재훈
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제38권5호
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2023
  • With the advent of industrialization, consumers and end-users demand more reliable products. Meeting these demands requires a comprehensive approach, involving tasks such as market information collection, planning, reliable raw material procurement, accurate reliability design, and prediction, including various reliability tests. Moreover, this encompasses aspects like reliability management during manufacturing, operational maintenance, and systematic failure information collection, interpretation, and feedback. Improving product reliability requires prioritizing it from the initial development stage. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a widely used method to increase product reliability. In this study, we reanalyzed using the FMEA method and proposed an improved method. Domestic railways lack an accurate measurement method or system for maintenance, so maintenance decisions rely on the opinions of experienced personnel, based on their experience with past faults. However, the current selection method is flawed as it relies on human experience and memory capacity, which are limited and ineffective. Therefore, in this study, we further specify qualitative contents to systematically accumulate failure modes based on the Failure Modes Table and create a standardized form based on the Master FMEA form to newly systematize it.

뉴로-퍼지 소프트웨어 신뢰성 예측에 대한 최적의 데이터 분할비율에 관한 연구 (A Study of Optimal Ratio of Data Partition for Neuro-Fuzzy-Based Software Reliability Prediction)

  • 이상운
    • 정보처리학회논문지D
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    • 제8D권2호
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    • pp.175-180
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    • 2001
  • 본 논문은 미래의 소프크웨어 공장 수나 고장시간 예측 정확성을 얻기 위해, 뉴로-피지 시스템을 이용할 경우 최적의 검증 데이터 할당 비율에 대한 연구이다. 훈련 데이터가 주어졌을 때, 과소 적합과 과잉 적합을 회피하면서 최적의 일반화 능력을 얻기 취해 Early Stopping 방법이 일반적으로 사용되고 있다. 그러나 훈련과 검증 데이터로 얼마나 많은 데이터를 할당갈 것인가는 시행착오법을 이용해 경험적으로 해를 구해야만 하며, 과다한 시간이 소요된다. 최적의 검증 데이터 양을 구하기 위해 규칙 수를 증가시키면서 다양한 검증 데이터 양을 할당하였다. 실험결과 최소의 검증 데이터로도 좋은 예측 능력을 보였다. 이 결과는 뉴로-퍼지 시스템을 소프트웨어 신뢰성 분야에 적용시 실질직언 지침을 제공할 수 있는 것이다.

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소셜 네트워크에서 사용자의 영향력을 고려한 핫 토픽 예측 기법 (Hot Topic Prediction Scheme Considering User Influences in Social Networks)

  • 노연우;김대윤;한지은;육미선;임종태;복경수;유재수
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제15권8호
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    • pp.24-36
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    • 2015
  • 최근 실시간으로 생성되는 대용량의 SNS 데이터로부터 유의미한 정보를 찾아내고 분석하는 것이 중요해지면서 핫 토픽 검출에 대한 관심도 크게 증가하고 있다. SNS 특성상 사전 확인이 이루어지지 않은 불특정 다수의 글들을 대상으로 하기 때문에 이 글들을 대상으로 핫 토픽을 예측했을 때 결과의 신뢰성이 저하된다는 문제점이 있다. 이를 해결하기 위하여 본 논문에서는 소셜 네트워크에서 사용자의 영향력을 고려한 신뢰성 높은 핫 토픽 예측 기법을 제안한다. 트위터를 기반으로 변형된 TF-IDF 알고리즘을 통하여 순간적으로 많이 이슈화되는 키워드 후보 집합을 추출하고, 트윗에 사용자 영향력을 가중치로 부여함으로써 핫 토픽 예측 결과의 신뢰성을 높인다. 제안하는 기법의 우수성을 보이기 위해 기존 기법과 제안하는 기법의 성능평가를 수행한다. 성능평가 결과, 제안하는 기법은 기존 기법에 비해 정확도, 재현율 모두 향상됨을 확인하였다.