• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제16권5호
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• pp.675-682
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• 2013

Reliability analysis and prediction of next failure time is critical to sustain weapon systems, concerning scheduled maintenance, spare parts replacement and maintenance interventions, etc. Since 1981, many methodology derived from various probabilistic and statistical theories has been suggested to do that activity. Nowadays, many A.I. tools have been used to support these predictions. Support Vector Regression(SVR) is a nonlinear regression technique extended from support vector machine. SVR can fit data flexibly and it has a wide variety of applications. This paper utilizes SVM and SVR with combining time series to predict the next failure time based on historical failure data. A numerical case using failure data from the military equipment is presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach. Finally, the proposed approach is proved meaningful to predict next failure point and to estimate instantaneous failure rate and MTBF.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.193-200
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• 2018

From the viewpoint of engineering applications, the prediction of the failure of bogies plays an important role in preventing the occurrence of fatigue. Fatigue is a complex phenomenon affected by many uncertainties (such as load, environment, geometrical and material properties, and so on). The key to predict fatigue damage accurately is how to quantify these uncertainties. A Bayesian model is used to account for the uncertainty of various sources when predicting fatigue damage of structural components. In spite of improvements in the design of fatigue-sensitive structures, periodic non-destructive inspections are required for components. With the help of modern nondestructive inspection techniques, the fatigue flaws can be detected for bogie structures, and fatigue reliability can be updated by using Bayesian theorem with inspection data. A practical fatigue analysis of welded bogies is utilized to testify the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

• 한국통신학회논문지
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• 제23권8호
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• pp.1915-1925
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• 1998

교환 시스템이 고장과 장애를 일으키면 서비스에 치명적인 영향을 미치게 된다. 다시 말해서 시스템을 제어하는 교환 소프트웨어의 역할은 매우 중요하다. 그렇기 때문에 정량적인 소프트웨어의 품질 평가 방법은 더욱 중요하다. 본 논문에서는 기능 블록으로 구성된 교환 소프트웨어를 시험하여 얻어진 각종 고장 데이터를 수집, 분석하고 이를 이용하여 각 버전별, 개발 전과정에 대한 소프트웨어 신뢰도를 평가해보고, 기타 고려할 사항에 대해 논한다. 대표적인 2개의 신뢰도 모형(G-O model, S-Shaped model)을 선택하여 소프트웨어 신뢰도를 비교해 보고 품질 향상을 위한 제반 활동과 소프트웨어 개발 프로젝트에 맞는 소프트웨어 신뢰도 모형을 제시하였다.

• 한국통신학회논문지
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• 제29권4A호
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• pp.399-414
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• 2004

In this paper, an evolution of software reliability engineering in a large-scale software project is summarized. The considered software consists of many components, called functional blocks in software of switching system. These functional blocks are served as the unit of coding and test, and the software is continuously updated by adding new functional blocks. We are mainly concerned with the analysis of the effects of these software components in software reliability and reliability evolution. We analyze the static characteristics of the software related to software reliability using collected failure data during system test. We also discussed a pattern which represents a local and global growth of the software reliability as version evolves. To find the pattern of system software, we apply the S-shaped model to a collection of failure data sets of each evolutionary version and the Goel-Okumoto(G-O) model to a grouped overall failure data set. We expect this pattern analysis will be helpful to plan and manage necessary human/resources fur a new similar software project which is developed under the same developing circumstances by estimating the total software failures with respect to its size and time.

• 정보처리학회논문지D
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• 제8D권6호
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• pp.835-842
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• 2001

본 논문에서는 소프트웨어 시험 단계중에 발생되는 시험노력 소요량을 고려한 소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장 모델을 제시하여 시간종속적인 시험 노력소요량 동태를 웨이블 곡선으로 설명한다. 시험 단계중에 소요되는 시험노력의 양에 대한 결함 검출비를 현재의 결함 내용에 비례하는 것으로 가정하여 소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장 모델을 비동차 포아송 프로세스(NHPP)로 공식화하되, 이 모델을 이용하여 소프트웨어 신뢰도 척도에 대한 데이터 분석기법을 개발한다. 시험 시간의 경과와 신뢰도와의 관계, 시험비용과 신뢰도와의 관계를 연구한다. 소프트웨어의 비용을 고찰함에 있어서 조건별로 검토하여 비용이 최소로 되는 발행시각을 결정하되, 목표신뢰도를 만족시키는 최적발행시각을 정한다. 비용의 입장에서 발행 시각을 결정하는 문제와 신뢰도의 입장에서 발행 시각을 결정하는 문제를 동시에 고려하여 최적 발행시각을 결정하도록 한다.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.45-52
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• 2007

Electric power is an important element in any modern economy. The availability of a reliable power supply at a reasonable cost is important for the economic growth and development of a country. Electric power utilities throughout the world therefore strive to meet customer demands economically with high quality and reliability. As the power industry moves towards open competition, therefore, there has been a call for a methodology by which to evaluate power system reliability through the use of customer interruption characteristics. This paper presents the results of an investigation and analysis of interruption characteristics of an industrial customer in Korea. This study used a direct visit survey to determine the investigation and analysis of electric service quality and the characteristics of industrial customers in Korea. A customer survey conducted throughout Korea via personal interviews of 660 sample customers is presented here. Variation according to characteristics of interruption such as duration, time of day, frequency and day of interruption was also investigated

• 디지털산업정보학회논문지
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.29-36
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• 2014

Finite failure NHPP software reliability models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, proposes the Gompertz distribution reliability model, which made out efficiency application for software reliability. Algorithm to estimate the parameters used to maximum likelihood estimator and bisection method, model selection based on mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination$(R^2)$, for the sake of efficient model, was employed. Analysis of failure using real data set for the sake of proposing fixed shape parameter of the Gompertz distribution was employed. This analysis of failure data compared with the Gompertz distribution model of shape parameter. In order to insurance for the reliability of data, Laplace trend test was employed. In this study, the proposed Gompertz model is more efficient in terms of reliability in this area. Thus, Gompertz model can also be used as an alternative model. From this paper, software developers have to consider the growth model by prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes which can was helped.

• Journal of Welding and Joining
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.82-88
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• 2007

Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu lead fee solder was generally utilized in electronics assemblies. But it is insufficient to research about activation energy(Q) that is applying to evaluate the solder joint reliability of environmental friendly electronics assemblies. Therefore this study investigated Q values which are needed to IMC formation and growth of Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu/Cu and Sn-40pb/Cu solder joints during aging treatment. We bonded Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu and Sn-40Pb solders on FR-4 PCB with Cu pad$(t=80{\mu}m)$. After reflow soldering, to observe the IMC formation and growth of the solder joints, test specimens were aged at 70, 150 and $170^{\circ}C$ for 1, 2, 5, 20, 60, 240, 960, 15840, 28800 and 43200 min, respectively. SEM and EDS were utilized to analysis the IMCS. From these results, we measured the total IMC$(Cu_6Sn_5+Cu_3Sn)$ thickness of Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu/Cu and Sn-40Pb/Cu interface, and then obtained Q values for the IMC$(Cu_6Sn_5,\;Cu_3Sn)$ growth of the solder joints.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제17권10호
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• pp.49-55
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• 2000

This study describes the fatigue characteristics for Al2024 alloy, which is aircraft structure material. For this work, the plane-strain fracture toughness test, the plane-stress fracture toughness test and the crack growth rates test were conducted under the standard testing method. Test equipment is a computer-controlled closed-loop fatigue testing machine. The data of each test result is very important to aircraft structure reliability estimation, life prediction, design analysis, endurance analysis and damage tolerance analysis. In addition, the fatigue crack growth threshold($\DeltaKth$) value decreased as the stress ratio increased. Also, $\DeltaKth$ decreased as the thickness increased in LT, TL directions.

• 한국품질경영학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국품질경영학회 2009년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.227-229
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• 2009

Recent discussions in the active growth strategy based on getting a green environment, changes in the management of companies involved in environmental management is the analysis of various risk factors and the green growth at the same time the company's growth strategy is required. Thus, the corporate position on the green growth strategy based on risk management to analyze and respond to face reality, and respond to the scene of the applied methodology is required. In this study, contact the section of Environment to assess potential business risks that the EMEA Environment Mode Effects Analysis methodology through research and development company's in, contact the section of Environment to effectively analyze risk management by addressing the degree of risk assessment as a future-oriented and objective can manage is to provide technical management model.