Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology (한국군사과학기술학회지)

The Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology (한국군사과학기술학회)
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A Reliability Prediction Method for Weapon Systems using Support Vector Regression

지지벡터회귀분석을 이용한 무기체계 신뢰도 예측기법

  • Received : 2013.06.07
  • Accepted : 2013.09.13
  • Published : 2013.10.05
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Abstract

Reliability analysis and prediction of next failure time is critical to sustain weapon systems, concerning scheduled maintenance, spare parts replacement and maintenance interventions, etc. Since 1981, many methodology derived from various probabilistic and statistical theories has been suggested to do that activity. Nowadays, many A.I. tools have been used to support these predictions. Support Vector Regression(SVR) is a nonlinear regression technique extended from support vector machine. SVR can fit data flexibly and it has a wide variety of applications. This paper utilizes SVM and SVR with combining time series to predict the next failure time based on historical failure data. A numerical case using failure data from the military equipment is presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach. Finally, the proposed approach is proved meaningful to predict next failure point and to estimate instantaneous failure rate and MTBF.

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