• 제목/요약/키워드: reliability estimation

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A Methodology of Open BIM-based Quantity take-off for Schematic Estimation of the Frame Work in Early Design Stage

  • Hansaem Kim;Jungsik Choi;Inhan Kim
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.419-425
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    • 2013
  • Recently AEC industry has required construction automation according to becoming large and complex. Thus BIM-based construction project is increased and used in whole fields of AEC industry. Quantity take-off and estimation fields are important factor for decision-making in conceptual and schematic design stages of construction projects. The purpose of this study improves reliability of the estimation through QTO based on Open BIM. Scope and method to apply QTO is to select conceptual design stage through LoD(Level of Detail) in AEC field and to extract information from BIM model through analysis of IFC structure. This study proceeds three step to make BIM model and check the model quality and calculate QTO. The methodology of QTO using IFC is to verify of result in this study and expects utilizing in design stage of construction projects. The result from this study is expected to decrease the risk factor and time of estimation in the project early phase through improving reliability of schematic estimation.

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절단고정시간에 근거한 파레토 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성장모형에 관한 비교 연구 (The Comparative Study for NHPP of Truncated Pareto Software Reliability Growth Model)

  • 김희철;신현철
    • 융합보안논문지
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2012
  • 소프트웨어 시스템의 대규모자료의 적용 때문에 소프트웨어 신뢰도는 소프트웨어 개발에 중요한 역할을 해왔다. 본 연구에서는 고장시간에 관련된 소프트웨어 신뢰성장모형이 제안되었다. 이러한 검사시간은 미리 정해진 절단 고정 시간을 의미한다. 본 연구에서는 소프트웨어의 강도함수, 평균값 함수 및 신뢰도와 모수추정에 대하여 나열하고 파레토 분포를 수명분포로 적용한 비동질적인 포아송 과정을 적용하였다. 본 논문의 수치적인 예에서는 고장 간격 시간 자료를 적용하고 모수추정 방법은 최우 추정 법을 이용하고 추세분석을 통하여 자료의 효율성을 입증한 후 평균자승오차와 $R_{SQ}$(결정계수)를 이용하고 예측 값과 실제 값의 차이에 의존한 효율적인 모형을 선택 비교하였다.

두 형태의 데이터를 이용하여 시스템의 신뢰도를 추정하는 방법 (Estimation of Reliability of a System Based on Two Typed Data)

  • 심규박;임재걸
    • 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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    • 제16권3호
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    • pp.336-341
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    • 2013
  • 복잡한 시스템에서 취득할 수 있는 여러 가지 형태의 자료에 대한 신뢰도 분석은 각종 시스템에 대한 신뢰도 보증을 위해 필요한 절차이다. 시스템의 신뢰도 평가는 고장함수의 추정에서 시작한다. 시스템은 한 개의 부품만으로 이루어 진 경우도 있지만 여러 개의 부품이 서로 연관관계를 맺고 있는 경우가 대부분이어서 취득된 자료의 형태도 다양하다. 본 논문에서는 고장 사건의 발생확률이 낮은 경우, 서로 다른 두 개 이상의 부품이나 시스템에서 취득한 자료의 형태를 고려하여 이에 대한 고장함수를 추정하고 신뢰도를 계산하는 방법을 제안하였다. 두 개 이상의 부품이 병렬 및 혼합방식으로 연결된 복잡한 시스템에 대한 고장함수의 추정도 자료의 형태를 고려하면 제안된 방법의 확장으로 가능하리라 생각한다.

프로빗 모델 기반 핀풀러의 작동 신뢰도 추정 (Functional Reliability Estimation of Pin Pullers Based on a Probit Model)

  • 문병민;이진욱;김남호;최창선;김재일;배석주
    • 한국군사과학기술학회지
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    • 제20권2호
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    • pp.225-230
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    • 2017
  • To generate mechanical movements in one-shot devices such as missiles and space launch vehicles, pyrotechnic mechanical device(PMD) such as pin pullers using pyrotechnic charge has been widely used. Reliability prediction of pin pullers is crucial to successfully execute target missions for the one-shot devices. Because the pin pullers require destructive tests to evaluate their reliability, one would need about 3,000 samples of success to guarantee a reliability of 99.9 % with a confidence level of 95 %. This paper suggests the application of a probit model using the charge amount as a functional parameter for estimation of functional reliability of pin puller. To guarantee target reliability, we propose estimation methods of the lower bound of functional reliability by applying the probit model. Given lower bound of functional reliability, we quantitatively show that the optimum amount of charge increases as the number of samples decreases. Along with a variety of simulations the validity of our new model via real test results is confirmed.

철근 콘크리트 구조 부재의 압축강도 추정 신뢰도 평가 (Reliability Evaluation of Compressive Strength of Reinforced Concrete Members)

  • 홍성욱;박찬우;이용택;김승훈
    • 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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    • 제23권6호
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    • pp.132-140
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    • 2019
  • 본 연구는 철근콘크리트 단층 구조물의 구조 부재 위치에 대한 비파괴검사법을 이용한 추정 신뢰도를 알아보기 위해 기둥, 벽체, 보 및 슬래브로 구성된 실험체를 제작하고, 기존 추정식과 비교 과정에서 정확한 분석을 위해 오차율 비교와 모평균 구간 추정을 사용하여 통계적 접근을 통한 신뢰성을 분석하고자 한다. 그 결과, 초음파속도법을 이용하여 압축강도를 추정한 결과와 코어시험 결과를 비교한 전체 평균 오차율은 18.8%, 반발경도법을 이용하여 압축강도를 추정한 결과와 코어시험 결과를 비교한 전체 평균 오차율은 20.1%가 도출되어 현장 적용성을 확인하였다. 그리고 부재별 신뢰성 부분에서 초음파속도법과 반발경도법을 이용하여 신속하고 효율적인 구조물 안전진단을 하기 위해서 각각 벽체 부재와 보 부재를 중심으로 압축강도 추정 시 신뢰도 높은 결과를 도출되는 것을 확인하였다.

메이크헴 수명분포에 의존한 소프트웨어 평균고장간격시간에 관한 모수 추정법 비교 연구 (A Comparative Study of the Parameter Estimation Method about the Software Mean Time Between Failure Depending on Makeham Life Distribution)

  • 김희철;문송철
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • 제24권1호
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    • pp.25-32
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    • 2017
  • For repairable software systems, the Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) is used as a measure of software system stability. Therefore, the evaluation of software reliability requirements or reliability characteristics can be applied MTBF. In this paper, we want to compare MTBF in terms of parameter estimation using Makeham life distribution. The parameter estimates used the least square method which is regression analyzer method and the maximum likelihood method. As a result, the MTBF using the least square method shows a non-decreased pattern and case of the maximum likelihood method shows a non-increased form as the failure time increases. In comparison with the observed MTBF, MTBF using the maximum likelihood estimation is smallerd about difference of interval than the least square estimation which is regression analyzer method. Thus, In terms of MTBF, the maximum likelihood estimation has efficient than the regression analyzer method. In terms of coefficient of determination, the mean square error and mean error of prediction, the maximum likelihood method can be judged as an efficient method.

무기체계의 고장 이력 데이터를 활용한 소프트웨어 신뢰도 분석 모델 적용 사례 연구 (The Case Study on Application of Software Reliability Analysis Model by Utilizing Failure History Data of Weapon System)

  • 조일훈;황성국;이익도;박연경;이정훈;신창훈
    • 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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    • 제17권4호
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    • pp.296-304
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: Recent weapon systems in defense have increased the complexity and importance of software when developing multifunctional equipment. In this study, we analyze the accuracy of the proposed software reliability model when applied to weapon systems. Methods: Determine the similarity between software reliability analysis results (prediction/estimation) utilizing data from developing weapon systems and system failures data during operation of weapon systems. Results: In case of a software reliability prediction model, the predicted failure rate was higher than the actual failure rate, and the estimation model was consistent with actual failure history data. Conclusion: The software prediction model needs to adjust the variables that are appropriate for the domestic weapon system environment. As the reliability of software is increasingly important in the defense industry, continuous efforts are needed to ensure accurate reliability analysis in the development of weapon systems.

Parameter Estimation and Comparison for SRGMs and ARIMA Model in Software Failure Data

  • Song, Kwang Yoon;Chang, In Hong;Lee, Dong Su
    • 통합자연과학논문집
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    • 제7권3호
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    • pp.193-199
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    • 2014
  • As the requirement on the quality of the system has increased, the reliability is very important part in terms of enhance stability and to provide high quality services to customers. Many statistical models have been developed in the past years for the estimation of software reliability. We consider the functions for NHPP software reliability model and time series model in software failure data. We estimate parameters for the proposed models from three data sets. The values of SSE and MSE is presented from three data sets. We compare the predicted number of faults with the actual three data sets using the NHPP software reliability model and time series model.

Pooling shrinkage estimator of reliability for exponential failure model using the sampling plan (n, C, T)

  • Al-Hemyari, Z.A.;Jehel, A.K.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.61-77
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    • 2011
  • One of the most important problems in the estimation of the parameter of the failure model, is the cost of experimental sampling units, which can be reduced by using any prior information available about ${\theta}$, and devising a two-stage pooling shrunken estimation procedure. We have proposed an estimator of the reliability function (R(t)) of the exponential model using two-stage time censored data when a prior value about the unknown parameter (${\theta}$) is available from the past. To compare the performance of the proposed estimator with the classical estimator, computer intensive calculations for bias, mean squared error, relative efficiency, expected sample size and percentage of the overall sample size saved expressions, were done for varying the constants involved in the proposed estimator (${\tilde{R}}$(t)).

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