• Title/Summary/Keyword: reliability estimation

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A Methodology of Open BIM-based Quantity take-off for Schematic Estimation of the Frame Work in Early Design Stage

  • Hansaem Kim;Jungsik Choi;Inhan Kim
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2013.01a
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    • pp.419-425
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    • 2013
  • Recently AEC industry has required construction automation according to becoming large and complex. Thus BIM-based construction project is increased and used in whole fields of AEC industry. Quantity take-off and estimation fields are important factor for decision-making in conceptual and schematic design stages of construction projects. The purpose of this study improves reliability of the estimation through QTO based on Open BIM. Scope and method to apply QTO is to select conceptual design stage through LoD(Level of Detail) in AEC field and to extract information from BIM model through analysis of IFC structure. This study proceeds three step to make BIM model and check the model quality and calculate QTO. The methodology of QTO using IFC is to verify of result in this study and expects utilizing in design stage of construction projects. The result from this study is expected to decrease the risk factor and time of estimation in the project early phase through improving reliability of schematic estimation.

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The Comparative Study for NHPP of Truncated Pareto Software Reliability Growth Model (절단고정시간에 근거한 파레토 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성장모형에 관한 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2012
  • Due to the large scale application of software systems, software reliability plays an important role in software developments. In this paper, a software reliability growth model (SRGM) is proposed for testing time. The testing time on the right is truncated in this model. The intensity function, mean-value function, reliability of the software, estimation of parameters and the special applications of Pareto NHPP model are discussed. This paper, a numerical example of applying using time between failures and parameter estimation using maximum likelihood estimation method, after the efficiency of the data through trend analysis model selection, depended on difference between predictions and actual values, were efficient using the mean square error and $R_{SQ}$.

Estimation of Reliability of a System Based on Two Typed Data (두 형태의 데이터를 이용하여 시스템의 신뢰도를 추정하는 방법)

  • Shim, Kyubark;Yim, Jaegeol
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.336-341
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    • 2013
  • Reliability analysis for various forms of data obtained from complicated electronic circuits is a necessary process for guaranteeing reliability of the system. Reliability assessment of a system starts from the estimation of failure function. A system can be composed of one item, but in most cases, several items are correlated to each other in one system. This study suggests an estimation method of failure function and reliabilities for infrequent failure events, by considering different form of data obtained from different systems. Estimates of failure function and reliabilities for complex systems composed of two or more items in parallel or in mixed connections can be done by further application of proposed method.

Functional Reliability Estimation of Pin Pullers Based on a Probit Model (프로빗 모델 기반 핀풀러의 작동 신뢰도 추정)

  • Mun, Byeong Min;Lee, Chinuk;Kim, Nam-ho;Choi, Chang-Sun;Kim, Zaeill;Bae, Suk Joo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.225-230
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    • 2017
  • To generate mechanical movements in one-shot devices such as missiles and space launch vehicles, pyrotechnic mechanical device(PMD) such as pin pullers using pyrotechnic charge has been widely used. Reliability prediction of pin pullers is crucial to successfully execute target missions for the one-shot devices. Because the pin pullers require destructive tests to evaluate their reliability, one would need about 3,000 samples of success to guarantee a reliability of 99.9 % with a confidence level of 95 %. This paper suggests the application of a probit model using the charge amount as a functional parameter for estimation of functional reliability of pin puller. To guarantee target reliability, we propose estimation methods of the lower bound of functional reliability by applying the probit model. Given lower bound of functional reliability, we quantitatively show that the optimum amount of charge increases as the number of samples decreases. Along with a variety of simulations the validity of our new model via real test results is confirmed.

Reliability Evaluation of Compressive Strength of Reinforced Concrete Members (철근 콘크리트 구조 부재의 압축강도 추정 신뢰도 평가)

  • Hong, Seong-Uk;Park, Chan-Woo;Lee, Yong-Taeg;Kim, Seung-Hun
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.132-140
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    • 2019
  • In this study, a specimen composed of columns, walls, beams, and slabs was fabricated to investigate the estimated reliability using nondestructive test method for the location of structural members of reinforced concrete single layer structures. And for accurate analysis in the comparison process with the existing estimation formula, we try to analyze the reliability through statistical approach by using error rate comparison and Confidence interval estimation. As a result, The average error rate of the core test was 18.8% compared with the result of estimating the compressive strength using the ultrasonic pulse velocity method. The average error rate of the core test results compared with the result of estimating the compressive strength using the rebound hardness method was 20.1%, confirming the field applicability. it is judged that the reliability of the compressive strength estimation can be derived from the wall member to make a quick and efficient structure safety diagnosis using the ultrasonic pulse velocity method. In addition, it is judged that the reliability of the compressive strength estimation can be derived from the beam member to make a quick and efficient structure safety diagnosis using the rebound hardness method.

A Comparative Study of the Parameter Estimation Method about the Software Mean Time Between Failure Depending on Makeham Life Distribution (메이크헴 수명분포에 의존한 소프트웨어 평균고장간격시간에 관한 모수 추정법 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Hee Cheul;Moon, Song Chul
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.25-32
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    • 2017
  • For repairable software systems, the Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) is used as a measure of software system stability. Therefore, the evaluation of software reliability requirements or reliability characteristics can be applied MTBF. In this paper, we want to compare MTBF in terms of parameter estimation using Makeham life distribution. The parameter estimates used the least square method which is regression analyzer method and the maximum likelihood method. As a result, the MTBF using the least square method shows a non-decreased pattern and case of the maximum likelihood method shows a non-increased form as the failure time increases. In comparison with the observed MTBF, MTBF using the maximum likelihood estimation is smallerd about difference of interval than the least square estimation which is regression analyzer method. Thus, In terms of MTBF, the maximum likelihood estimation has efficient than the regression analyzer method. In terms of coefficient of determination, the mean square error and mean error of prediction, the maximum likelihood method can be judged as an efficient method.

The Case Study on Application of Software Reliability Analysis Model by Utilizing Failure History Data of Weapon System (무기체계의 고장 이력 데이터를 활용한 소프트웨어 신뢰도 분석 모델 적용 사례 연구)

  • Cho, Ilhoon;Hwang, Seongguk;Lee, Ikdo;Park, Yeonkyeong;Lee, Junghoon;Shin, Changhoon
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.296-304
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: Recent weapon systems in defense have increased the complexity and importance of software when developing multifunctional equipment. In this study, we analyze the accuracy of the proposed software reliability model when applied to weapon systems. Methods: Determine the similarity between software reliability analysis results (prediction/estimation) utilizing data from developing weapon systems and system failures data during operation of weapon systems. Results: In case of a software reliability prediction model, the predicted failure rate was higher than the actual failure rate, and the estimation model was consistent with actual failure history data. Conclusion: The software prediction model needs to adjust the variables that are appropriate for the domestic weapon system environment. As the reliability of software is increasingly important in the defense industry, continuous efforts are needed to ensure accurate reliability analysis in the development of weapon systems.

Parameter Estimation and Comparison for SRGMs and ARIMA Model in Software Failure Data

  • Song, Kwang Yoon;Chang, In Hong;Lee, Dong Su
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.193-199
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    • 2014
  • As the requirement on the quality of the system has increased, the reliability is very important part in terms of enhance stability and to provide high quality services to customers. Many statistical models have been developed in the past years for the estimation of software reliability. We consider the functions for NHPP software reliability model and time series model in software failure data. We estimate parameters for the proposed models from three data sets. The values of SSE and MSE is presented from three data sets. We compare the predicted number of faults with the actual three data sets using the NHPP software reliability model and time series model.

Pooling shrinkage estimator of reliability for exponential failure model using the sampling plan (n, C, T)

  • Al-Hemyari, Z.A.;Jehel, A.K.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.61-77
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    • 2011
  • One of the most important problems in the estimation of the parameter of the failure model, is the cost of experimental sampling units, which can be reduced by using any prior information available about ${\theta}$, and devising a two-stage pooling shrunken estimation procedure. We have proposed an estimator of the reliability function (R(t)) of the exponential model using two-stage time censored data when a prior value about the unknown parameter (${\theta}$) is available from the past. To compare the performance of the proposed estimator with the classical estimator, computer intensive calculations for bias, mean squared error, relative efficiency, expected sample size and percentage of the overall sample size saved expressions, were done for varying the constants involved in the proposed estimator (${\tilde{R}}$(t)).

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