• Title/Summary/Keyword: reliability bounds

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Formal Trust Assessment with Confidence Probability

  • Kutay, Mahir;Ercan, Tuncay
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.830-842
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    • 2015
  • Trust and trustworthiness of web services and organizations is calculated as scalar values. But there is still a certain level of risk for the overall reliability of this value. In this article, we focus on calculating trust values as intervals between upper and lower bounds based on predefined confidence values through an additional confidence probability. This will give us a more realistic approach to the trust assessments between individuals and organizations. We also developed a web-based software tool, TAST (Trust Assessment Software Tool) that collects the web services' evaluation of different customer groups for similar organizations through the user interface and calculates the trust intervals for predefined and previously selected confidence values. Our model uses a weighted calculation of mean and variances of customer groups in specific periods and analyses the total and incremental trust of different customer groups.

Maximization of Path Reliabilities in Overlay Multicast Trees for Realtime Internet Service (실시간 인터넷 서비스를 위한 오브레이 말티케스트 트리의 패스 신뢰성 최대화)

  • Lee, Jung-H.;Lee, Chae-Y.
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.103-114
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    • 2008
  • Overlay Multicast is a promising approach to overcome the implementation problem of IP multicast. Real time services like Internet broadcasting are provided by the overlay multicast technology due to the complex nature and high cost of IP multicast. To reduce frequent updates of multicast members and to support real time service without delay, we suggest a reliable overlay multicast tree based on members' sojourn probabilities. Path reliabilities from a source to member nodes are considered to maximize the reliability of an overlay multicast tree. The problem is formulated as a binary integer programming with degree and delay bounds. A tabu search heuristic is developed to solve the NP-complete problem. Outstanding results are obtained which is comparable to the optimal solution and applicable in real time.

A Study on Optimal Design of Accelerated Life Tests (가속수명시험의 최적 설계)

  • Jeong, Hai-Sung
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.57-72
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    • 2007
  • This paper suggests an approach for using ALTA 7 PRO to design accelerated life test plans. Conducting a accelerated life test requires finding life distributions at different stress levels and determining an appropriate life-stress relationship. Moreover, a test plan needs to be developed. In its optimal test plan, stress levels are determined and the proportions of test units are assigned at each stress level so that asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimate of a (log) percentile of the life distribution at the design stress is minimized. Examples are presented for usage.

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Reliability Analysis of Fuzzy Systems Based on Interval Valued Vague Sets (구간값 모호집합에 기반을 둔 퍼지시스템의 신뢰도 분석)

  • Lee, Se-Yul;Cho, Sang-Yeop;Kim, Yong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.445-450
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    • 2008
  • In order to analyze the reliabilities of the fuzzy systems, the reliabilities of the components in the fuzzy systems are represented by real values between zero and one, fuzzy numbers, intervals of confidence, vague sets, interval valued fuzzy sets, etc in the conventional researches. In this paper, we propose a method to represent and analyze the reliabilities of the fuzzy systems based on the interval valued vague sets defined in the universe of discourse [0, 1]. In the interval valued vague sets, the upper bounds and the lower bounds of the conventional vague sets[12, 14] are represented as the intervals. Therefore, it can allow the reliabilities of a fuzzy system to represent and analyze in a more flexible manner. Because the proposed method uses the simplified arithmetic operations of the fuzzy triangular numbers rather than the complicated of the fuzzy trapezoidal numbers mentioned by Kumar[14], the execution of the proposed method is faster than the one.

A Study on the Mechanical Properties of EMC and Thermal Stress Anlaysis in Electronic Packagings (전자패키지용 EMC의 기계적 성질 및 패키지내의 열응력해석)

  • Shin, Dong-Kil;Lee, Jung-Ju
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.20 no.11
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    • pp.3538-3548
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    • 1996
  • In this study, as a part of basic study for developing the simulation program for the assemssment of reliability of electronic EMC packaging which covers from EMC mixing step to thermal analysis, comparison between a measured and predicted values of material properties of EMC and finitde element analysis of thermal stress are performed. For the experimental testing specimens of fifty, sixty hive and eighty percent filler($13\mu m$, spherical silica) weight fraction are fabricated using tranfer molding. Coefficient of thermal expansion, elastic modulus and thermla conductivity are measured using these specimens and then these measured values are compared with the predicted values by various equations ( such as dilute suspension method. self consistent method, generalized self consistent method, Hashin-Shtrikman's bounds. Shapery's bounds, Nielsen's method and others). Measured values are distributed within the upper and lower bounds of equations. Measured elastic modulus and coefficient of thermal expansion approaches closely the perdicted values with self consisten mehtod and upper bound of Shaperys equation respectively. However small differences of thermal conductivity between the different filler volume fraction are obserbed. FEM analysis indicates that firstly stress is concentrated at the corner section of EMC and secondly EMC with eighty percent filler weight fraction shows less thermal stress when package is cooling down and relatively high thermal stress when package is heating up.

System Reliability Analysis of Slope Considering Multiple Failure Modes (다중 파괴모드를 고려한 사면의 시스템 신뢰도해석)

  • Cho, Sung-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.29 no.9
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2013
  • This work studies the reliability analysis of a slope that considers multiple failure modes. The analysis consists of two parts. First, significant failure modes that contribute most to system reliability are determined. The so-called barrier method proposed by Der Kiureghian and Dakessian to identify significant failure modes successively is employed. Second, the failure probability for the slope is estimated on the basis of the identified significant failure modes and corresponding design points. For reliability problems entailing multiple design points, failure probability can be estimated by the multi-point first-order reliability method (FORM), Ditlevsen's bounds method, and Monte Carlo simulation. In this paper, a comparative study between these methods has been made through example problems. Analysis results showed that while a soil slope may have a large number of potential slip surfaces, its system failure probability is usually governed by a few significant slip surfaces. Therefore, the most important step in the system reliability analysis for a soil slope is to identify all the significant failure modes in an efficient way.

Statistical Effective Interval Determination and Reliability Assessment of Input Variables Under Aleatory Uncertainties (물리적 불확실성을 내재한 입력변수의 확률 통계 기반 유효 범위 결정 방법 및 신뢰성 평가)

  • Joo, Minho;Doh, Jaehyeok;Choi, Sukyo;Lee, Jongsoo
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.41 no.11
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    • pp.1099-1108
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    • 2017
  • Data points obtained by conducting repetitive experiments under identical environmental conditions are, theoretically, required to correspond. However, experimental data often display variations due to generated errors or noise resulting from various factors and inherent uncertainties. In this study, an algorithm aiming to determine valid bounds of input variables, representing uncertainties, was developed using probabilistic and statistical methods. Furthermore, a reliability assessment was performed to verify and validate applications of this algorithm using bolt-fastening friction coefficient data in a sample application.

Reliability Analysis of Stability of Berm Breakwaters (소단형 방파제의 안정성에 대한 신뢰성 해석)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.399-407
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    • 2007
  • Two reliability models, AFDA(Approximate Full Distribution Approach) and Monte-Carlo simulation method, are directly developed to study on both hydraulic failure mode of berm recession and structural failure mode of armour breakage of berm breakwaters. By comparing the present results with the results of other researcher, it may be confirmed that two reliability models can be straightforwardly applicable to berm breakwaters. Relative influence of each random variable on hydraulic and structural failure probabilities could be properly analyzed. The upper bound and the lower bound of failure probability can be evaluated by using bi-modal bounds of the multiple failure mode analysis, from which it may be possible to investigate some kinds of dependence into between two failure modes. Finally, it may also be found that the structural failure mode of armour breakage could become a main failure mode of berm breakwaters in the condition of more than any allowable berm recession.

Development of Questionnaire for Evaluating Health Effect Associated with Air Pollution (대기오염과 관련된 건강영향을 평가하기 위한 설문 개발)

  • Ju, Yeong-Su;Kim, Dae-Sung;Kang, Jong-Won;Seong, Joo-Heon;Kang, Dae-Hee;Cho, Soo-Hun;Paek, Do-Myung
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.30 no.4 s.59
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    • pp.852-869
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    • 1997
  • This study was conducted to develop and evaluate the reliability and the validity of a questionnaire in order to determine the applicability as a screening tool for estimating environmental exposure and health effects related to air pollution. The questionnaire was developed with adopting some items of others such as ISAAC or ATS-DLD. And then we performed test-retest to 89 middle school students and their mothers at interval of three months. Cohen's Kappa values, weighted Kappa values, Spearman's correlation coefficients, and Pearson's correlation coefficients for each item were computed as reliability coefficients. The validity coefficients and validity coefficient bounds were also obtained by simply using these reliability coefficients. As results, Kappa ranged broadly from 0.10 to 0.61 of the items 'diet', $0.52\sim0.79$ of the environmental tobacco smoke, $0.39\sim0.44$ of the functional categories of surrounding environment, and $0.39\sim0.44$ of the using transportation systems; these items were regarded as confounding factors. For items related to health outcomes, Kappa ranged from -0.02 to 0.37 in the respiratory system of past medical history, and from 0.11 to 0.55 in the current health status. But Kappa of the others were over 0.60. In conclusion, if some items can be corrected or modified, the questionnaire developed in this study can be used as a tool for evaluating environmental exposure and health effects associated with air pollution.

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Evaluation of Tensile Properties of Cast Stainless Steel Using Ball Indentation Test

  • Kim Jin Weon
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.237-247
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    • 2004
  • To investigate the applicability of automated ball indentation (ABI) tests in the evaluation of the tensile properties of cast stainless steel (CSS), ABI tests were performed on four types of unaged CSS and on 316 stainless steel, all of which had a different microstructure and strength. The reliability of ABI test data was analyzed by evaluating the data scattering of the ABI test and by comparing tensile properties obtained from the ABI test and the tensile test. The results show that the degree of scattering of the ABI test data is reasonably acceptable in comparison with that of standard tensile data, when two points data that exhibit out-of-trend are excluded from five to seven points data tested on a specimen. In addition, the scattering decreases slightly as the content of ${\delta}-ferrite$ in CSS increases. Moreover, the ABI test can directly measure the flow parameters of CSS with error bounds of about ${\pm}10\%$ for the ultimate tensile stress and the strength coefficient, and about ${\pm}15\%$ for the yield stress and the strain hardening exponent. The accuracy of the ABI test data is independent of the amount of ${\delta}-ferrite$ in the CSS.