• Title/Summary/Keyword: receiver operating characteristic analysis

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The Optimal Tumor Mutational Burden Cutoff Value as a Novel Marker for Predicting the Efficacy of Programmed Cell Death-1 Checkpoint Inhibitors in Advanced Gastric Cancer

  • Jae Yeon Jang;Youngkyung Jeon ;Sun Young Jeong ;Sung Hee Lim ;Won Ki Kang;Jeeyun Lee ;Seung Tae Kim
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.476-486
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: The optimal tumor mutational burden (TMB) value for predicting treatment response to programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) checkpoint inhibitors in advanced gastric cancer (AGC) remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the optimal TMB cutoff value that could predict the efficacy of PD-1 checkpoint inhibitors in AGC. Materials and Methods: Patients with AGC who received pembrolizumab or nivolumab between October 1, 2020, and July 27, 2021, at Samsung Medical Center in Korea were retrospectively analyzed. The TMB levels were measured using a next-generation sequencing assay. Based on receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the TMB cutoff value was determined. Results: A total 53 patients were analyzed. The TMB cutoff value for predicting the overall response rate (ORR) to PD-1 checkpoint inhibitors was defined as 13.31 mutations per megabase (mt/Mb) with 56% sensitivity and 95% specificity. Based on this definition, 7 (13.2%) patients were TMB-high (TMB-H). The ORR differed between the TMB-low (TMB-L) and TMB-H (8.7% vs. 71.4%, P=0.001). The progression-free survival and overall survival (OS) for 53 patients were 1.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.600-2.268) and 4.26 months (95% CI, 2.992-5.532). The median OS was longer in the TMB-H (20.8 months; 95% CI, 2.292-39.281) than in the TMB-L (3.31 months; 95% CI, 1.604-5.019; P=0.049). Conclusions: The TMB cutoff value for predicting treatment response in AGC patients who received PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor monotherapy as salvage treatment was 13.31 mt/Mb. When applying the programmed death ligand-1 status to TMB-H, patients who would benefit from PD-1 checkpoint inhibitors can be selected.

Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio and Serum Biomarkers : A Potential Tool for Prediction of Clinically Relevant Cerebral Vasospasm after Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

  • Osman Kula;Burak Gunay;Merve Yaren Kayabas;Yener Akturk;Ezgi Kula;Banu Tutunculer;Necdet Sut;Serdar Solak
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.66 no.6
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    • pp.681-689
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    • 2023
  • Objective : Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is a condition characterized by bleeding in the subarachnoid space, often resulting from the rupture of a cerebral aneurysm. Delayed cerebral ischemia caused by vasospasm is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity in SAH patients, and inflammatory markers such as systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI), systemic inflammatory index (SII), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and derived NLR (dNLR) have shown potential in predicting clinical vasospasm and outcomes in SAH patients. This article aims to investigate the relationship between inflammatory markers and cerebral vasospasm after aneurysmatic SAH (aSAH) and evaluate the predictive value of various indices, including SIRI, SII, NLR, and dNLR, in predicting clinical vasospasm. Methods : A retrospective analysis was performed on a cohort of 96 patients who met the inclusion criteria out of a total of 139 patients admitted Trakya University Hospital with a confirmed diagnosis of aSAH between January 2013 and December 2021. Diagnostic procedures, neurological examinations, and laboratory tests were performed to assess the patients' condition. The Student's t-test compared age variables, while the chi-square test compared categorical variables between the non-vasospasm (NVS) and vasospasm (VS) groups. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of laboratory parameters, calculating the area under the ROC curve, cut-off values, sensitivity, and specificity. A significance level of p<0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results : The study included 96 patients divided into two groups : NVS and VS. Various laboratory parameters, such as NLR, SII, and dNLR, were measured daily for 15 days, and statistically significant differences were found in NLR on 7 days, with specific cut-off values identified for each day. SII showed a significant difference on day 9, while dNLR had significant differences on days 2, 4, and 9. Graphs depicting the values of these markers for each day are provided. Conclusion : Neuroinflammatory biomarkers, when used alongside radiology and scoring scales, can aid in predicting prognosis, determining severity and treatment decisions for aSAH, and further studies with larger patient groups are needed to gain more insights.

Performance Comparison of Machine Learning based Prediction Models for University Students Dropout (머신러닝 기반 대학생 중도 탈락 예측 모델의 성능 비교)

  • Seok-Bong Jeong;Du-Yon Kim
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2023
  • The increase in the dropout rate of college students nationwide has a serious negative impact on universities and society as well as individual students. In order to proactive identify students at risk of dropout, this study built a decision tree, random forest, logistic regression, and deep learning-based dropout prediction model using academic data that can be easily obtained from each university's academic management system. Their performances were subsequently analyzed and compared. The analysis revealed that while the logistic regression-based prediction model exhibited the highest recall rate, its f-1 value and ROC-AUC (Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve) value were comparatively lower. On the other hand, the random forest-based prediction model demonstrated superior performance across all other metrics except recall value. In addition, in order to assess model performance over distinct prediction periods, we divided these periods into short-term (within one semester), medium-term (within two semesters), and long-term (within three semesters). The results underscored that the long-term prediction yielded the highest predictive efficacy. Through this study, each university is expected to be able to identify students who are expected to be dropped out early, reduce the dropout rate through intensive management, and further contribute to the stabilization of university finances.

Association of Airflow Limitation and COPD Composite Index with Peripheral Oxygen Saturation in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (만성폐쇄성폐질환자에서 기류제한 및 COPD 복합지수와 말초산소포화도의 연관성)

  • Jong Seong Lee;Jae Hoon Shin;Jin Ee Baek;Hyerim Son;Byung-soon Choi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 2024
  • Objective: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by progressive airflow obstruction that is only partly reversible, inflammation in the airways, and systemic effects. This study aimed to investigate the association between low peripheral oxygen saturation levels (SpO2), and composite indices predicting death in male patients with (COPD). Method: A total of 140 participants with post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC ratio less than 0.7 were included. Three composite indices (ADO, DOSE, BODEx) were calculated using six variables such as age (A), airflow obstruction (O), body mass index (B), dyspnea (D), exacerbation history (E or Ex), and smoking status (S). Severity of airflow limitation was classified according to Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) guidelines. SpO2 was measured by pulse oximetry, and anemia and iron deficiency were assessed based on blood hemoglobin levels and serum markers such as ferritin, transferrin saturation, or soluble transferrin receptor. Results: Participants with low SpO2 (<95%) showed significantly lower levels of %FEV1 predicted (p=0.020) and %FEV1/FVC ratio (p=0.002) compared to those with normal SpO2 levels. The mMRC dyspnea scale (p<0.001) and GOLD grade (p=0.002) showed a significant increase in the low SpO2 group. Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis revealed higher area under the curve for %FEV1 (p=0.020), %FEV1/FVC(p=0.002), mMRC dyspnea scale (p=0.001), GOLD grade (p=0.010), ADO (p=0.004), DOSE (p=0.002), and BODEx (p=0.011) in the low SpO2 group. Conclusion: These results suggest that low SpO2 levels are related to increased airflow limitation and the composite indices of COPD.

Scoring System to Predict Malignancy for MRI-Detected Lesions in Breast Cancer Patients: Diagnostic Performance and Effect on Second-Look Ultrasonography (유방암 환자의 MRI에서 발견된 병변의 악성 예측을 위한 점수체계: 진단적 능력과 이차 초음파 결정에 미치는 영향)

  • Young Geol Kwon;Ah Young Park
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.81 no.2
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    • pp.379-394
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    • 2020
  • Purpose To design a scoring system to predict malignancy of additional MRI-detected lesions in breast cancer patients. Materials and Methods Eighty-six lesions (64 benign and 22 malignant) detected on preoperative MRI of 68 breast cancer patients were retrospectively included. The clinico-radiologic features were correlated with the histopathologic results using the Student's t-test, Fisher's exact test, and logistic regression analysis. The scoring system was designed based on the significant predictive features of malignancy, and its diagnostic performance was compared with that of the Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) category. Results Lesion size ≥ 8 mm (p < 0.001), location in the same quadrant as the primary cancer (p = 0.005), delayed plateau kinetics (p = 0.010), T2 isointense (p = 0.034) and hypointense (p = 0.024) signals, and irregular mass shape (p = 0.028) were associated with malignancy. In comparison with the BI-RADS category, the scoring system based on these features with suspicious non-mass internal enhancement increased the diagnostic performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.918 vs. 0.727) and detected three false-negative cases. With this scoring system, 22 second-look ultrasound examinations (22/66, 33.3%) could have been avoided. Conclusion The scoring system based on the lesion size, location relative to the primary cancer, delayed kinetic features, T2 signal intensity, mass shape, and non-mass internal enhancement can provide a more accurate approach to evaluate MRI-detected lesions in breast cancer patients.

Differentiating Uterine Sarcoma From Atypical Leiomyoma on Preoperative Magnetic Resonance Imaging Using Logistic Regression Classifier: Added Value of Diffusion-Weighted Imaging-Based Quantitative Parameters

  • Hokun Kim;Sung Eun Rha;Yu Ri Shin;Eu Hyun Kim;Soo Youn Park;Su-Lim Lee;Ahwon Lee;Mee-Ran Kim
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.43-54
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    • 2024
  • Objective: To evaluate the added value of diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI)-based quantitative parameters to distinguish uterine sarcomas from atypical leiomyomas on preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Materials and Methods: A total of 138 patients (age, 43.7 ± 10.3 years) with uterine sarcoma (n = 44) and atypical leiomyoma (n = 94) were retrospectively collected from four institutions. The cohort was randomly divided into training (84/138, 60.0%) and validation (54/138, 40.0%) sets. Two independent readers evaluated six qualitative MRI features and two DWI-based quantitative parameters for each index tumor. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify the relevant qualitative MRI features. Diagnostic classifiers based on qualitative MRI features alone and in combination with DWI-based quantitative parameters were developed using a logistic regression algorithm. The diagnostic performance of the classifiers was evaluated using a cross-table analysis and calculation of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: Mean apparent diffusion coefficient value of uterine sarcoma was lower than that of atypical leiomyoma (mean ± standard deviation, 0.94 ± 0.30 10-3 mm2/s vs. 1.23 ± 0.25 10-3 mm2/s; P < 0.001), and the relative contrast ratio was higher in the uterine sarcoma (8.16 ± 2.94 vs. 4.19 ± 2.66; P < 0.001). Selected qualitative MRI features included ill-defined margin (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 17.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.41-503, P = 0.040), intratumoral hemorrhage (aOR, 27.3; 95% CI, 3.74-596, P = 0.006), and absence of T2 dark area (aOR, 83.5; 95% CI, 12.4-1916, P < 0.001). The classifier that combined qualitative MRI features and DWI-based quantitative parameters showed significantly better performance than without DWI-based parameters in the validation set (AUC, 0.92 vs. 0.78; P < 0.001). Conclusion: The addition of DWI-based quantitative parameters to qualitative MRI features improved the diagnostic performance of the logistic regression classifier in differentiating uterine sarcomas from atypical leiomyomas on preoperative MRI.

Relationship between 18F-FDG PET/CT Semi-Quantitative Parameters and International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer, American Thoracic Society/European Respiratory Society Classification in Lung Adenocarcinomas

  • Lihong Bu;NingTu;Ke Wang;Ying Zhou;Xinli Xie;Xingmin Han;Huiqin Lin;Hongyan Feng
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.112-123
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    • 2022
  • Objective: To investigate the relationship between 18F-FDG PET/CT semi-quantitative parameters and the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer, American Thoracic Society/European Respiratory Society (IASLC/ATS/ERS) histopathologic classification, including histological subtypes, proliferation activity, and somatic mutations. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study included 419 patients (150 males, 269 females; median age, 59.0 years; age range, 23.0-84.0 years) who had undergone surgical removal of stage IA-IIIA lung adenocarcinoma and had preoperative PET/CT data of lung tumors. The maximum standardized uptake values (SUVmax), background-subtracted volume (BSV), and background-subtracted lesion activity (BSL) derived from PET/CT were measured. The IASLC/ATS/ERS subtypes, Ki67 score, and epidermal growth factor/anaplastic lymphoma kinase (EGFR/ALK) mutation status were evaluated. The PET/CT semi-quantitative parameters were compared between the tumor subtypes using the Mann-Whitney U test or the Kruskal-Wallis test. The optimum cutoff values of the PET/CT semi-quantitative parameters for distinguishing the IASLC/ATS/ERS subtypes were calculated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The correlation between the PET/CT semi-quantitative parameters and pathological parameters was analyzed using Spearman's correlation. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. Results: SUVmax, BSV, and BSL values were significantly higher in invasive adenocarcinoma (IA) than in minimally IA (MIA), and the values were higher in MIA than in adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS) (all p < 0.05). Remarkably, an SUVmax of 0.90 and a BSL of 3.62 were shown to be the optimal cutoff values for differentiating MIA from AIS, manifesting as pure ground-glass nodules with 100% sensitivity and specificity. Metabolic-volumetric parameters (BSV and BSL) were better potential independent factors than metabolic parameters (SUVmax) in differentiating growth patterns. SUVmax and BSL, rather than BSV, were strongly or moderately correlated with Ki67 in most subtypes, except for the micropapillary and solid predominant groups. PET/CT parameters were not correlated with EGFR/ALK mutation status. Conclusion: As noninvasive surrogates, preoperative PET/CT semi-quantitative parameters could imply IASLC/ATS/ERS subtypes and Ki67 index and thus may contribute to improved management of precise surgery and postoperative adjuvant therapy.

Diagnostic Performance of Spin-Echo Echo-Planar Imaging Magnetic Resonance Elastography in 3T System for Noninvasive Assessment of Hepatic Fibrosis

  • Se Woo Kim;Jeong Min Lee;Sungeun Park;Ijin Joo;Jeong Hee Yoon;Won Chang;Haeryoung Kim
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.180-188
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    • 2022
  • Objective: To validate the performance of 3T spin-echo echo-planar imaging (SE-EPI) magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) for staging hepatic fibrosis in a large population, using surgical specimens as the reference standard. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study initially included 310 adults (155 undergoing hepatic resection and 155 undergoing donor hepatectomy) with histopathologic results from surgical liver specimens. They underwent 3T SE-EPI MRE ≤ 3 months prior to surgery. Demographic findings, underlying liver disease, and hepatic fibrosis pathologic stage according to METAVIR were recorded. Liver stiffness (LS) was measured by two radiologists, and inter-reader reproducibility was evaluated using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). The mean LS of each fibrosis stage (F0-F4) was calculated in total and for each etiologic subgroup. Comparisons among subgroups were performed using the Kruskal-Wallis test and Conover post-hoc test. The cutoff values for fibrosis staging were estimated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: Inter-reader reproducibility was excellent (ICC, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-0.99). The mean LS values were 1.91, 2.41, 3.24, and 5.41 kPa in F0-F1 (n = 171), F2 (n = 26), F3 (n = 38), and F4 (n = 72), respectively. The discriminating cutoff values for diagnosing ≥ F2, ≥ F3, and F4 were 2.18, 2.71, and 3.15 kPa, respectively, with the ROC curve areas of 0.97-0.98 (sensitivity 91.2%-95.9%, specificity 90.7%-99.0%). The mean LS was significantly higher in patients with cirrhosis (F4) of nonviral causes, such as primary biliary cirrhosis (9.56 kPa) and alcoholic liver disease (7.17 kPa) than in those with hepatitis B or C cirrhosis (4.28 and 4.92 kPa, respectively). There were no statistically significant differences in LS among the different etiologic subgroups in the F0-F3 stages. Conclusion: The 3T SE-EPI MRE demonstrated high interobserver reproducibility, and our criteria for staging hepatic fibrosis showed high diagnostic performance. LS was significantly higher in patients with non-viral cirrhosis than in those with viral cirrhosis.

Prediction of Cognitive Progression in Individuals with Mild Cognitive Impairment Using Radiomics as an Improvement of the ATN System: A Five-Year Follow-Up Study

  • Rao Song;Xiaojia Wu;Huan Liu;Dajing Guo;Lin Tang;Wei Zhang;Junbang Feng;Chuanming Li
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.89-100
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    • 2022
  • Objective: To improve the N biomarker in the amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration system by radiomics and study its value for predicting cognitive progression in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Materials and Methods: A group of 147 healthy controls (HCs) (72 male; mean age ± standard deviation, 73.7 ± 6.3 years), 197 patients with MCI (114 male; 72.2 ± 7.1 years), and 128 patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) (74 male; 73.7 ± 8.4 years) were included. Optimal A, T, and N biomarkers for discriminating HC and AD were selected using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. A radiomics model containing comprehensive information of the whole cerebral cortex and deep nuclei was established to create a new N biomarker. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers were evaluated to determine the optimal A or T biomarkers. All MCI patients were followed up until AD conversion or for at least 60 months. The predictive value of A, T, and the radiomics-based N biomarker for cognitive progression of MCI to AD were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier estimates and the log-rank test. Results: The radiomics-based N biomarker showed an ROC curve area of 0.998 for discriminating between AD and HC. CSF Aβ42 and p-tau proteins were identified as the optimal A and T biomarkers, respectively. For MCI patients on the Alzheimer's continuum, isolated A+ was an indicator of cognitive stability, while abnormalities of T and N, separately or simultaneously, indicated a high risk of progression. For MCI patients with suspected non-Alzheimer's disease pathophysiology, isolated T+ indicated cognitive stability, while the appearance of the radiomics-based N+ indicated a high risk of progression to AD. Conclusion: We proposed a new radiomics-based improved N biomarker that could help identify patients with MCI who are at a higher risk for cognitive progression. In addition, we clarified the value of a single A/T/N biomarker for predicting the cognitive progression of MCI.

Ultrafast MRI and T1 and T2 Radiomics for Predicting Invasive Components in Ductal Carcinoma in Situ Diagnosed With Percutaneous Needle Biopsy

  • Min Young Kim;Heera Yoen;Hye Ji;Sang Joon Park;Sun Mi Kim;Wonshik Han;Nariya Cho
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.24 no.12
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    • pp.1190-1199
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    • 2023
  • Objective: This study aimed to investigate the feasibility of ultrafast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and radiomic features derived from breast MRI for predicting the upstaging of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) diagnosed using percutaneous needle biopsy. Materials and Methods: Between August 2018 and June 2020, 95 patients with 98 DCIS lesions who underwent preoperative breast MRI, including an ultrafast sequence, and subsequent surgery were included. Four ultrafast MRI parameters were analyzed: time-to-enhancement, maximum slope (MS), area under the curve for 60 s after enhancement, and time-to-peak enhancement. One hundred and seven radiomic features were extracted for the whole tumor on the first post-contrast T1WI and T2WI using PyRadiomics. Clinicopathological characteristics, ultrafast MRI findings, and radiomic features were compared between the pure DCIS and DCIS with invasion groups. Prediction models, incorporating clinicopathological, ultrafast MRI, and radiomic features, were developed. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and area under the curve (AUC) were used to evaluate model performance in distinguishing between the two groups using leave-one-out cross-validation. Results: Thirty-six of the 98 lesions (36.7%) were confirmed to have invasive components after surgery. Compared to the pure DCIS group, the DCIS with invasion group had a higher nuclear grade (P < 0.001), larger mean lesion size (P = 0.038), larger mean MS (P = 0.002), and different radiomic-related characteristics, including a more extensive tumor volume; higher maximum gray-level intensity; coarser, more complex, and heterogeneous texture; and a greater concentration of high gray-level intensity. No significant differences in AUCs were found between the model incorporating nuclear grade and lesion size (0.687) and the models integrating additional ultrafast MRI and radiomic features (0.680-0.732). Conclusion: High nuclear grade, larger lesion size, larger MS, and multiple radiomic features were associated with DCIS upstaging. However, the addition of MS and radiomic features to the prediction model did not significantly improve the prediction performance.