• Title/Summary/Keyword: quantifying risk

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Chaos Analysis of Major Joint Motions for Young Males During Walking (보행시 젊은 남성에 대한 상.하체 주요 관절 운동의 카오스 분석)

  • Park, Jung-Hong;Kim, Kwang-Hoon;Son, Kwon
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.31 no.8
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    • pp.889-895
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    • 2007
  • Quantifying dynamic stability is important to assessment of falling risk or functional recovery for leg injured people. Human locomotion is complex and known to exhibit nonlinear dynamical behaviors. The purpose of this study is to quantify major joints of the body using chaos analysis during walking. Time series of the chaotic signals show how gait patterns change over time. The gait experiments were carried out for ten young males walking on a motorized treadmill. Joint motions were captured using eight video cameras, and then three dimensional kinematics of the neck and the upper and lower extremities were computed by KWON 3D motion analysis software. The correlation dimension and the largest Lyapunov exponent were calculated from the time series to quantify stabilities of the joints. This study presents a data set of nonlinear dynamic characteristics for eleven joints engaged in normal level walking.

Reliability Based Real-time Slope Stability Assessment

  • Lee, Seung-Rae;Choi, Jung-Chan;Kim, Yun-Ki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.427-435
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    • 2008
  • A reliability based slope stability assessment method is proposed and examined considering the variation of matric suction which is measured by a real time slope monitoring system. Mean value first order reliability method and advanced first order reliability method are used to calculate reliability indices of a slope. The applicability of methods is compared by applying them to the range of matric suctions measured by the real-time monitoring system. Sensitivity analysis is also performed to examine the contribution of random variables to the reliability index of slope. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a model slope. The results show that the reliability index of slope can be used for efficient slope management by quantifying the risk of slope in real time.

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Quantifying the Value of Floats (작업여유시간의 가치 정량화 방법론)

  • Park, Young-Jun;Lee, Dong-Eun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.123-124
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    • 2015
  • The project participants make use of floats for their benefits. The owner may consume floats in an event of issuing change order(s) and may avoid the risk factors attributed by them; the contractor may reduce activities' costs by substituting the activity with alternative construction method and by leveling the resources, hence consuming floats. There are a lot of disputes and claims involved in the float ownership issue. The ownership of floats should be stipulated in the contract stage. To alleviate these disputes and claims, it is commendable to develop a computational method that quantifies the float value. This paper presents the method that computes the values of total floats which changes over the project life span. The system calculates CPM, compute the ratio of area of banana curve which is enclosed by earliest start curve and latest start-curve.

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A Study on Quantifying of Software Quality Risk (소프트웨어 품질 리스크의 정량화에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Jin-Woo;Kwon, Wonil;Kwon, Ho-Yeol
    • Annual Conference of KIPS
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    • 2010.04a
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    • pp.1027-1030
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    • 2010
  • 소프트웨어 테스팅에서 리스크 기반 테스팅은 리스크 식별, 리스크 분석, 리스크 계획, 리스크 추적의 4 단계로 전개되며, 특히 마지막 단계인 리스크 추적 단계에서는 식별된 리스크가 테스팅 진행과정을 거치면서 어느 정도 완화되었는지를 확인하고 현재의 리스크 완화 정도에 따라 적절하게 대응하는지를 모니터링 해야 하는 중요한 단계이다. 하지만 리스크 추적 단계에서 필요한 리스크 완화 수치가 정의되지 않아 사용자들은 테스트 실행율 또는 결함 해결율 등을 리스크 완화 수치의 대안으로 사용하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 리스크 추적 단계에서 사용할 수 있는, 리스크의 완화 정도를 수치화한 "리스크 해결 지수"의 산출 과정을 수식과 함께 제시하고 그 의미를 설명하였다. 그리고 예시를 통해 리스크 수치화에 대한 이해를 돕고, 리스크 수치화 관련 차트를 몇 가지 제시하여 실무에의 응용 통찰력을 제공한다. 리스크를 수치화한 "리스크 지수"는 테스팅 조직의 의사결정에 활용할 수 있는 객관적이고 설득력있는 정보로서 프로젝트 전반에 걸쳐 그 활용 가치가 높다.

Quantifying Monetary Value of Float

  • Park, Young-Jun;Lee, Dong-Eun
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.111-113
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    • 2015
  • Floats are used by the parties involved in a construction project. The owner may use float by changing order(s) or by executing risk avoidance plan; the contractor may use it for leveling resources or substituting activities' construction methods to reduce costs. Floats are accepted either just as by-product obtained by critical path method(CPM) scheduling or as asset having significant value. Succinctly, existing studies involved in float value does not consider its' changes on project time domain. It is important to identify float ownership and to quantify its' corresponding values. This paper presents a method that quantifies float value of money that changes over project execution. The method which accurately computes the monetary value of float may contributes to resolve conflicts relative to float ownership and/or delay issues among project participants. It compares the difference between the monetary value of total float - on non-critical path in each and every schedule update. It makes use of critical path method (CPM) and commercial software with which practitioners are already familiar.

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Quantification for Collapsion Probability of Building Structures( I ) (건축구조물 붕괴위험도 정량화에 관한 연구( I ))

  • 손기상
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.110-120
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    • 1994
  • The Quantitative analysis for collapsion probability of each construcion work has not been developed, despite of that the one for safety management itself has been reported, up to now. It is concluded that showing critical check points against structure collapsion due to each work at construction site, and Quantifying those could be useful Quality-assuring tool, not to prevent Quality failure. Risk classes of each work at construction site, classified by German Builders Mutual-Aid Association (GEBMAS), and by special instruction rates of Korea Insurance Development Institute, are introduced to compare with the results of this study. As of a study method, total 2,002 sheets of questionwares are distributed directly to new city development areas, which are called, Ilsan 110 points : Pundang 79points and Chungdong 38points, including additional Changwon 125sheets and pusan 60sheets, by four(4) people, for contact with actual site engineers. Total responses of 1,056 sheets, are collected. Interrelationship diagram between experience years of Engrs., and risk rate of responses are also classified, with the criteria of four(4) years. Domestic journals with relation to construction have reported that main building Structure collapsions are mainly shown on apartment buildings and office ones. These two(2) building structures are again classified as five(5) kinds of works. This study takes use of an approach on haying the risk rates for each construction work on the above individual construction work. Additionally, site investigations have been performed to find out any possible unreasonable check items, due to construction method ; Reinforced Concret structure, Pre cast Concrete structure, and Steel structure building. Developed Quality Assurance Analysis Form with the Quantitative danger class, resulted from this study, are verified as it is able to be a good efficiency tool against collapsion of building structures.

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Risk Assessment of a Drone Under the Gust and its Precise Flight Simulation (드론의 외풍 환경 비행 안전성 평가 및 정밀 시뮬레이션)

  • Lee, DongYeol;Park, SunHoo;Shin, SangJoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.173-180
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    • 2022
  • The operation and transportation environment for an unmanned aerial vehicle will be completely different from those for the conventional air and ground transportation. The requirement for a traffic management system for its safe operation has been emerging. Accordingly, investigation is being conducted to analyze the danger that unmanned aerial vehicle may encounter during the flight and to provide the countermeasure by the simulation. When the drones operate in an urban environment, they may be affected by the wind around the building. Thus it is essential to predict the influence of the gust and analyze the resulting risk. In this paper, a method for evaluating the safety for a flight mission under the gust is suggested. By using the precise 6-degree-of-freedom flight simulation that is capable of simulating the gust condition, possible deviation from the pre-planned flight path in terms of the attitude orientation will be predicted. A method of quantifying the probability of the flight mission failure will also be presented.

An Exploratory Research on Quantitative Risk Assessment Methodology Throughout Success Factor Analysis in Project Financing (PF 개발사업의 성공요인 분석을 통한 리스크 평가체계 구축을 위한 기초연구)

  • Lee, Dong-Gun;Cha, Hee-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.92-102
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    • 2013
  • A Project Financing (PF) is a form of project delivery system that is carried out for the purpose of trying to give help to the development of national economy and the construction industry in order attract private investment. However, in the case of Korea, many PF projects are only taking into account the aspect of maximizing development benefits, and the proliferation of PF results in project failure. In addition, the interruption of business has been one after another in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis. These major cause is the result of efforts to block the potential risk of objectively quantifying operations. Nowadays, PF risk analysis in terms of various factors is insufficient. The purpose of this study is to identify and quantify the extensive risk elements to classify the cause of affecting the success of the project PF study prior to propose a methodology for evaluating the integrity of the project PF based on this and to provide a quantitative system that can evaluate the business risk. This study identified the factors that affect the PF business success and failure and establish the metrics that can be quantified through existing research and expert interviews. Factors influencing the success of the PF obtained as a result of surveys and interviews in assessing the soundness of the PF development conditions in the future be able to take advantage of, as well as an objective assessment tool to be able to take advantage of the development is expected.

Human Reliability Analysis Using Reliability Physics Models (신뢰도 물리모델을 이용한 인간신뢰도분석 연구)

  • Moo-sung Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.123-130
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    • 2002
  • This paper presents a new dynamic human reliability analysis method and its application for quantifying the human error probabilities in implementing accident management actions. The action associated with implementation of the cavity flooding during a station blackout sequence is considered for its application. This method is based on the concept of the quantified correlation between the performance requirement and performance achievement. For comparisons of current HRA methods with the new method, the characteristics of THERP, HCR, and SLIM-MAUD, which m most frequency used method in PSAs, are discussed. The MAAP code and Latin Hypercube sampling technique are used to determine the uncertainty of the performance achievement parameter. Meanwhile, the value of the performance requirement parameter is obtained from interviews. Based on these stochastic obtained, human error probabilities are calculated with respect to the various means and variances of the things. It is shown that this method is very flexible in that it can be applied to any kind of the operator actions, including the actions associated with the implementation of accident management strategies.

A Postural Classification Scheme of Upper Body for Females for Quantifying Postural Load of Working Postures (자세 부하 측정을 위한 상체에 대한 여성의 자세 분류 체계)

  • Kee, Dohyung
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.223-231
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    • 2002
  • Recently, work-related musculoskeletal disorders(WMSDs) have rapidly increased and have been a major issue in the field of industrial safety. Of several physical risk factors for WMSDs, which include postures, vibration, repetitive work, speed or acceleration of movements, etc., awkward postures have been known as one of the major causes of WMSDs. For reducing the potential for injury as a result of postures, cost effective quantification of the magnitude for physical exposure to poor working postures is important and needed. To do this, several postural classification schemes have been developed and used in industrial sites. It is known that perceived discomfort for joint motions and muscle strength for females were much less than those for males. However, the existing postural classification schemes were developed without considering these gender effects. This study aims to develop a new postural classification scheme for female workers, based on the perceived discomfort for joint motions. The result showed that there was significant difference between the schemes for female and male. It was also found that when compared with OWAS, RULA and REBA, postural load was quantified more precisely with the developed scheme. It is recommended that different schemes according to gender of workers involved in work be used in order to accurately evaluate postural load of work postures.