• Title/Summary/Keyword: qualitative and quantitative evaluation

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Bankruptcy Prediction Modeling Using Qualitative Information Based on Big Data Analytics (빅데이터 기반의 정성 정보를 활용한 부도 예측 모형 구축)

  • Jo, Nam-ok;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.33-56
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    • 2016
  • Many researchers have focused on developing bankruptcy prediction models using modeling techniques, such as statistical methods including multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis or artificial intelligence techniques containing artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, and support vector machines (SVM), to secure enhanced performance. Most of the bankruptcy prediction models in academic studies have used financial ratios as main input variables. The bankruptcy of firms is associated with firm's financial states and the external economic situation. However, the inclusion of qualitative information, such as the economic atmosphere, has not been actively discussed despite the fact that exploiting only financial ratios has some drawbacks. Accounting information, such as financial ratios, is based on past data, and it is usually determined one year before bankruptcy. Thus, a time lag exists between the point of closing financial statements and the point of credit evaluation. In addition, financial ratios do not contain environmental factors, such as external economic situations. Therefore, using only financial ratios may be insufficient in constructing a bankruptcy prediction model, because they essentially reflect past corporate internal accounting information while neglecting recent information. Thus, qualitative information must be added to the conventional bankruptcy prediction model to supplement accounting information. Due to the lack of an analytic mechanism for obtaining and processing qualitative information from various information sources, previous studies have only used qualitative information. However, recently, big data analytics, such as text mining techniques, have been drawing much attention in academia and industry, with an increasing amount of unstructured text data available on the web. A few previous studies have sought to adopt big data analytics in business prediction modeling. Nevertheless, the use of qualitative information on the web for business prediction modeling is still deemed to be in the primary stage, restricted to limited applications, such as stock prediction and movie revenue prediction applications. Thus, it is necessary to apply big data analytics techniques, such as text mining, to various business prediction problems, including credit risk evaluation. Analytic methods are required for processing qualitative information represented in unstructured text form due to the complexity of managing and processing unstructured text data. This study proposes a bankruptcy prediction model for Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms using both quantitative information, such as financial ratios, and qualitative information acquired from economic news articles. The performance of the proposed method depends on how well information types are transformed from qualitative into quantitative information that is suitable for incorporating into the bankruptcy prediction model. We employ big data analytics techniques, especially text mining, as a mechanism for processing qualitative information. The sentiment index is provided at the industry level by extracting from a large amount of text data to quantify the external economic atmosphere represented in the media. The proposed method involves keyword-based sentiment analysis using a domain-specific sentiment lexicon to extract sentiment from economic news articles. The generated sentiment lexicon is designed to represent sentiment for the construction business by considering the relationship between the occurring term and the actual situation with respect to the economic condition of the industry rather than the inherent semantics of the term. The experimental results proved that incorporating qualitative information based on big data analytics into the traditional bankruptcy prediction model based on accounting information is effective for enhancing the predictive performance. The sentiment variable extracted from economic news articles had an impact on corporate bankruptcy. In particular, a negative sentiment variable improved the accuracy of corporate bankruptcy prediction because the corporate bankruptcy of construction firms is sensitive to poor economic conditions. The bankruptcy prediction model using qualitative information based on big data analytics contributes to the field, in that it reflects not only relatively recent information but also environmental factors, such as external economic conditions.

An Evaluation of Broadcaster Licensing Policy in Korea since 1990 (1990년 이후 방송사업자 인허가정책에 대한 평가)

  • Jung, In-Sook
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.18
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    • pp.199-229
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    • 2002
  • This study analyzed the trends of broadcaster licensing policy during 1990-2001 in Korea. It is to seek the answers about how the examination standards and procedures applied to broadcaster licensing has been changed for the last decade. For the purpose this study inquired six cases such as private broadcasting licence (1990 October), cable TV program provider licences(1993 July), cable TV system operator licences(1994 January), private local broadcaster licences(1994 July), satellite broadcaster licence(2000 December) and cable TV home shopping channel licences(2001 March). It examined the degree of specification and measurement of the standards based upon the government white paper; average points per item, average points per quantitative item, and average points per qualitative item etc. The government hadn't opened the standards and procedures how it licensed broadcasters until 1990 and the uncertain attitude brought distrust on the government broadcasting policy. The first white paper about broadcaster licensing was made in 1994 after cable TV broadcaster licensing was finished. The results indicated that Korean broadcasting licensing policy rapidly developed in the dimension of transparency from 'a secret room policy' to 'a sunshine policy' for the last decade. But it still needs improvement in the dimension of fairness of examination. Now one of the main distrust is the ratio that the one of qualitative examination standards are much more than the qualitative one.

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Application of Accelerometer for Quantitative Mechanical Evaluation of Assembly and Disassembly Properties of Building (건축물 조립성 및 분해성의 역학적 정량평가를 위한 가속도계의 적용성 분석)

  • Ahn, Jaecheol
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.107-113
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    • 2015
  • Recently mechanization construction methods are developed rapidly in the field of construction processing. The construction industry is one of the sector that still requires a lot of manual labor of the entire industry. There are still various kinds of work done by human labors, especially in the disassembling and separation of materials for recycling. However, database of relevant statistics including estimating standards are difficult to analyze by actual human workload, and furthermore the disassembling processes are being analyzed by qualitative assessment. This study attempted to introduce the accelerometer for the quantitative evaluation of human workload in the construction field. Still, it is possible to calculate the amount of energy which is required for the assembling and disassembling of nail and screw through three-dimensional accelerometer.

A Empirical Research for Subcontractor Selection Model in the International Construction Project (해외건설 전문건설기업 선정모델 개선을 위한 실증 연구)

  • Lee, Changjun;Seok, Hochan;Lee, Sangjun;Jang, Woosik;Han, Seung-Heon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.118-126
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    • 2016
  • International construction market have quantitatively increased and have reached up to 700 Bil. US$ through active effort of construction firms and government. In spite of this increase, substantiality issue has been constantly disputed due to qualitative problems such as lack of capability and technical shortage. To overcome these problems, many methods in performing quantitative growth and qualitative substantiality of overseas construction are being researched which showed that selection of subcontractors in general contractor is regarded as a very important success factor. However, it is difficult to make a reasonable decision for selecting the subcontractors due to the lack of evaluation standards and reliability. This study proposes an improved evaluation system through adjustment of the evaluation indicators using correlations analysis and multiple regression analysis with pre-qualification and performance evaluation of 121 firms in 6 countries.

Analysis of the current status of quantitative literature evidence for the prescription of 56 herbal medicines covered by health insurance (건강보험 급여 한약제제 56종 처방의 계량적 문헌 근거 현황 분석)

  • Chul Kim;Hyeun-kyoo Shin
    • The Journal of Korean Medicine
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.189-200
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    • 2023
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study is to analyze the current state of quantitative literature evidence for the prescription of 56 herbal medicines covered by health insurance that have been studied in Korea for the past 30 years, to evaluate the reliability of the evidence, and to find out the research direction of herbal medicine prescription in the future. Methods: 56 kinds of herbal medicine prescriptions were searched in domestic literature search databases OASIS, DBpia, and overseas PubMed, classified into chemistry, toxicity, cells, animals, clinical cases, and clinical trial studies, and built into an EBM pyramid structure. Results: When classified according to research contents, there were 61 cases (7.5%) of physicochemical analysis to identify constituent substances, 80 cases (9.8%) of toxicity evaluation, and 672 cases (82.7%) of efficacy evaluation. The efficacy evidence was classified according to the evidence-based medical pyramid structure: 196 cell trials (29.1%), 372 animal trials (55.4%), 89 case and case reporting series (13.3%), 7 comparative case studies (1.1%), and 8 randomized control clinical trials (1.2%). In the pyramid composition, the basis for the validity of 56 kinds of herbal medicines prescribed was 568 cases (84.5%) in cell and animal units, which could not be said to be highly reliable. There was no relationship between the ranking of quantitative literature evidence for herbal medicine prescriptions and the ranking of salary administration. Conclusions: In an era that continues to require scientific evidence for herbal medicine, traditional herbal medicine should secure the basis for safety validity even for the 10th most frequent prescription among 56 herbal medicine prescriptions for consumers. In particular, traditional herbal medicine should increase the quantitative and qualitative level of case reports on related herbal medicine prescriptions, focusing on each clinical society, and move toward comparative case studies and randomized clinical trial so that traditional herbal medicine is positioned as Evidence-based medicine.

A study on patent evaluation model based on Bayesian approach of the structural equation model (구조방정식 모형의 베이지안 접근법 기반의 특허평가 모델링에 대한 연구)

  • Woo, Ho-young;Kwak, Jungae;Lim, Changwon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.901-916
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    • 2017
  • Recently, the industrial paradigm shift to the fourth industry has already begun, and the importance of patents as intangible intellectual property in the fourth industry era is increasing day by day. Since the technical valuation of a patent is calculated according to the opinion of experts, it is costly and time consuming, and hence, the quality of the patent is judged based on subjective opinions of non-experts. Therefore, it is necessary to develop an objective and rational evaluation system for the qualitative level of patents. In this paper, we classify the valuation of patents into technicality, rights, and usability, and consider the quantitative and objective evaluation modeling of patents using Bayesian structural equation model. In particular, based on the data collected by the Korea Invention Promotion Association, we apply the Bayesian approach, which is capable of stable modeling even under small samples by using prior information, and the structural equation model, which is excellent for modeling and evaluating qualitative performance that is difficult to measure directly, to develop a patent evaluation model.

Lifetime Estimation of a Bluetooth Module using Accelerated Life Testing (가속수명시험을 이용한 블루투스 모듈의 수명 예측)

  • Son, Young-Kap;Chang, Seog-Weon;Kim, Jae-Jung
    • Journal of the Microelectronics and Packaging Society
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.55-61
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    • 2008
  • This paper shows quantitative reliability evaluations of a Bluetooth module through extending previous qualitative methods limited to structure reliability tests and solder joint reliability tests for Bluetooth modules. Accelerated Life Testing (ALT) of the modules using temperature difference in temperature cycling as an accelerated stress was conducted for quantitative reliability evaluation under field environment conditions. Lifetime distribution parameters were estimated using the failure times obtained through the ALT, and then Coffin-Manson model was implemented. Results of the ALT showed that the failure mode of the modules was open and the failure mechanisms are both crack and delamination. The ALT reproduced the failure mode and mechanisms of failed Bluetooth modules collected from the field. Further, a quantitative reliability evaluation method with respect to various temperature differences in temperature cycling was proposed in this paper. $B_{10}$ lifetime of the module for the temperature difference $70^{\circ}C$ using the proposed method would be estimated as about 4 years.

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Applicability of FDS for the Fire Hazard Analysis of the Fire Zone at Nuclear Power Plants (원전 화재방호구역의 화재위험 분석을 위한 FDS 적용성)

  • Jee, Moon-Hak;Lee, Byung-Kon
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.20 no.4 s.64
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    • pp.13-18
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    • 2006
  • The fire protection regulation for the nuclear power plants is based on the qualitative fire hazard assessment and the quantitative fire risk analysis, and the fire risk is managed by the fire protection plan with the appropriate balance among the fire prevention, fire suppression and the minimization of the fire effect. In these days, the zone model or the field model is generally used for the detail evaluation for the fire risk. At this paper, with consideration of the present trend, we evaluate whether the quantitative fire risk analysis and the assessment of fire result for fire areas at nuclear power plants can be possible by use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) that is the state-of-the-art fire modeling tool. Consequently, it is expected that the quantitative fire risk evaluation propelled by the fire modeling can be available as an applicable tool to improve the core damage frequency as well as the quantitative fire risk analysis.

Quantitative Cyber Security Scoring System Based on Risk Assessment Model (위험 평가 모델 기반의 정량적 사이버 보안 평가 체계)

  • Kim, Inkyung;Park, Namje
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.1179-1189
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    • 2019
  • Cyber security evaluation is a series of processes that estimate the level of risk of assets and systems through asset analysis, threat analysis and vulnerability analysis and apply appropriate security measures. In order to prepare for increasing cyber attacks, systematic cyber security evaluation is required. Various indicators for measuring cyber security level such as CWSS and CVSS have been developed, but the quantitative method to apply appropriate security measures according to the risk priority through the standardized security evaluation result is insufficient. It is needed that an Scoring system taking into consideration the characteristics of the target assets, the applied environment, and the impact on the assets. In this paper, we propose a quantitative risk assessment model based on the analysis of existing cyber security scoring system and a method for quantification of assessment factors to apply to the established model. The level of qualitative attribute elements required for cyber security evaluation is expressed as a value through security requirement weight by AHP, threat influence, and vulnerability element applying probability. It is expected that the standardized cyber security evaluation system will be established by supplementing the limitations of the quantitative method of applying the statistical data through the proposed method.

Comprehensive Evaluation of Freeway Surface Conditions based on User's Satisfaction (이용자 만족도를 고려한 고속도로 노면상태 종합평가에 관한 연구)

  • Son, Young-Tae;Lee, Jin-Kak;Lee, Shin-Ra;Jung, Chul-Gie
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.37-47
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    • 2010
  • This research is aimed at comprehensively evaluating the condition of a road surface of a highway in satisfaction of its users. This research conducted an overall evaluation of a road surface condition by adding qualitative data, or a driver's satisfaction to the existing quantitative elements, whereas the existing research put its focus on a correlation analysis with quantitative factors and qualitative factors through a statistical method. As for an evaluation method, this research conducted an overall evaluation by using Grey System Theory which makes possible an integrated evaluation. The analyzed results make it possible to diagnose the current conditions of each section of object roads and to predict the potentially changeable conditions for the time to come. In addition, these analyzed results could hopefully be applied to the maintenance of freeways through diverse methods. It is hoped that the evaluation of a road surface condition of a highway in satisfaction of its user could be helpful to keeping up the satisfaction of a driver and passenger on the highway by more than a certain level. In addition, the analyzed data on the influence of data value observed by comprehensively evaluating a variety of elements could be used as a secondary means of the decision-making process in relation to road maintenance. On top of that, it could be used as a means of improving road maintenance system and offering the improved driving environment of the highway.