• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.9 no.1 s.24
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• pp.99-108
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• 2006

In this paper, we analyzed the characteristics of emitter geolocation coverage area within which the emitter lies with a specified probability based on the LOBs(Line of Bearing) of sensors. Stansfield and MSD algorithms were applied to calculate BPE(Best Point Estimate), EEP(Elliptical Error Probable) and CEP(Circular Error Probable), They used the weighting factors composed of ${\sigma}_{Phi}$ (bearing error), QF(quality factor), $P_{e}$ (probability being inside) to optimize the performance. The characteristics of EEP was investigated in the change of them and those of CEP was analyzed based on the deployment of sensors.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.139-148
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• 2023

Safety standards for long-range artillery ammunition test and training sites follow the US artillery shooting range safety zone standards. Although the South Korean geographical conditions of shooting ranges are different from those of the United States, there is no safety standard reflecting the South Korean topographical characteristics. Probable error associated with the shooting range, trajectory should be considered in establishing the safety standards. In this study, we present the safety standards for the ammunition testing site suitable for the Korean situation, with applying a concept of trajectory and probable error differed by ammunition type, which are currently confirmed by the South Korean Army's artillery shooting.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.495-502
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• 2007

In Korea, military authorities have neglected to consider impacts of military projects on local communities and natural environment. Moreover, local communities have had difficulties in dealing with the Ministry of National Defense (MND), which was stubborn enough not to implement environmental assessment on their projects. In this situation, recent case, "EIA of Baekgol Division's Howitzer Fire Training Site" in the Supreme Court-in which judges upheld the Higher Court's decision that the division violated the Environmental Impact Assessment law by ignoring to implement EIA-reveals that military projects can no longer forgo environmental assessment. The decision has serious ramifications on the future of Environmental Impact Assessment in military-led projects. This paper examines the proper scope of EIA in military-led projects and, more specifically, fire training site and searches for how to improve it through 'probable error,' a military training method that is applied to real 'howitzer' fire training. Probable error of the artillery field manual is nothing more than an error that exceeded as often as it is not exceeded and its scientific method was demonstrated through real fire tests in the US. Army. If it is applied to improve assessment methods about the proper scope of EIA in military 'howitzer' fire training site, 'probable error' will improve effect prediction, mitigation and reliability.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.14-24
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• 2021

This study aims to examine probable human errors when landing an airplane by the use of SHERPA(systematic human error reduction and prediction approach) and propose methods for preventing the predictive human errors. It has been reported that human errors are concerned with a lot of accidents or incidents of an airplane. It is significant to predict presumable human errors, particularly in the operation mode of human-automation interaction, and attempt to reduce the likelihood of predicted human error. By referring to task procedures and interviewing domain experts, we analyzed airplane landing task by using HTA(hierarchical task analysis) method. In total, 6 sub-tasks and 19 operations were identified from the task analysis. SHERPA method was used for predicting probable human error types for each task. As a result, we identified 31 human errors and predicted their occurrence probability and criticality. Based on them, we suggested a set of methods for minimizing the probability of the predicted human errors. From this study, it can be said that SHERPA can be effectively used for predicting probable human error types in the context of human-automation interaction needed for navigating an airplane.

• Advances in concrete construction
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• v.10 no.6
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• pp.527-536
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• 2020

In this study, a process is proposed to calculate analytical correction values for the vertical shortening of all columns on all floors in a high-rise building that minimizes the error between the structural analysis predictions and values measured during construction. The weight ratio and the most probable value were accordingly considered based on the properties of the shortening value analyzed at several points in each construction stage and the distance between these measured points and unmeasured points at which the shortening was predicted. The effective range and shortening value normalization were considered using the column grouping concept. These tools were applied to calculate the error ratio between the predicted and measured values on a floor where a measured point exists, and then determine the estimated error ratio and estimated error value for the unmeasured point using this error ratio. At points on a floor where no measured point exists, the estimated error ratio and the estimated error value were calculated by applying the most probable value considering the weight ratio for the nearest floor where measured points exist. In this manner, the error values and estimated error values can be determined at all points in a structure. Then, the analytical correction value, defined as this error or estimated error value, was applied by adding it to the predicted value. Finally, the adequacy of the proposed correction method was verified against measurements by applying the analytical corrections to all unmeasured points based on the points where the measurement exists.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.263-276
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• 2000

This paper is to derive the probable rainfall depths and the probable rainfall intensity formulas for Inchon Metropolitan district. The annual maximum rainfall data from 10 min. to 6 hours have been collected from the Inchon weather station. Eleven types of probability distribution are considered to estimate probable rainfall depths for 12 different storm durations at the Inchon Metropolitan district. Three tests including Chi-square, Kolmogorov-Smimov and Cramer Von Mises with the graphical analysis are adopted to select the best probability distribution. The probable rainfall intensity formulas are then determined by the least squares method using the trial and error approach. Five types of Talbot type, Sherman type, Japanese type, Unified type I, and Unified type II are considered to determine the best type for the Inchon rainfall intensity. The root mean squared errors are computed to compare the accuracy from the derived formulas. It has been suggested that the probable rainfall intensities having Unified type I for the short term duration should be the most reliable formulas by considering the root mean squared errors and the difference between computed probable rainfall depth and estimated probable rainfall depth.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.1 no.1 s.1
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• pp.103-115
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• 2001

The current procedure to design hydraulic structures in a small basin area is to estimate the probable rainfall depth using rainfall intensity formula. The estimation of probable rainfall depth has many uncertainties inherent with it. However, it has been inevitable to simplify the nonlinearity if the rainfall in practice. This study attend to address a method which can model the nonlinearity in order to derive better rainfall intensity formula for the estimation of probable rainfall depth. The results show that genetic algorithm is more reliable and accurate than trial-and-error method or nonlinear programming technique(Powell's method) in the derivation of the rainfall intensity formula.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.355-363
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• 2024

This study proposes a method for determining the optimal target size for an artillery range considering ballistics and environmental conditions. To this end, the size of the probable error of each type of ammunition and charge determined during shooting were considered, and the effect of the firing position and target terrain characteristics on the target size was analyzed. In conclusion, the size of the target increased as the range increased, and a larger target size was required for the DPICM than for the general high explosive. Accordingly, the optimal target size must be determined by considering various factors such as topographical characteristics, shooting position location, and shooting range safety standards.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.50-70
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• 1986

When the ICM is fired in the artillery weapon, it is necessary to determine rounds of munitions for sufficient damage to targets of different sizes and shapes. This paper analyzes all kinds of delivery errors involved in ICM firing, and then develops the target coverage model appropriate for ICM salvos. This model is evaluated through computer simulation. The expected target coverage is measured according to number of salvos, range and probable error, velocity error, battery arrangement, target size, and shell reliability respectively.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.70-84
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• 2002

This paper deals with the attrition rate of major facility such as a particular building that is one of the most important target in the war time. In order to estimate the attrition rate, we use JAWS, WinJMEM which are programed by JTCG/ME of AMSAA and spreadsheet package which is able to assist the limitation of those programs and calculate all the procedure of this computation. This method uses the effectiveness index(El) which indicates the numerical measure of the effectiveness of a given weapon of a given target. The range error probable(REP) and the deflection error probable(DEP) in the ground plane also should be used. Those mean the measure of delivery accuracy of the weapon system. In this paper, it is improved that the El can be obtained from the regression analysis using the weight of the warhead explosive as the independent variable. It implies that we are able to obtain the El and the conditional probability of damage of the enemy weapon. After that, the single-sortie probability of damage can be computed using WinJMEM or another assistant program such as the spreadsheet package which shows the result immediately.