• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability.statistics

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Estimation of Design Rainfall by the Regional Frequency Analysis using Higher Probability Weighted Moments and GIS Techniques(I) (고차확률가중모멘트법에 의한 지역화빈도분석과 GIS기법에 의한 설계강우량 추정(I) -동질성의 지역구분 방법을 중심으로-)

  • 이순혁;박종화;류경식;지호근;전택기;신용희
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.57-68
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    • 2001
  • It is matter of common knowledge to give impetus to the water resources development to cope with increasing demand and supply for the water utilization project including agricultural living and industrial water owing to the economic and civilization development in recent years. Regional design rainfall is necessary or the design of the dam reservoir levee and drainage facilities for the development of various kinds of essential waters including agricultural water. For the estimation of the regional design rainfall classification of the climatologically an geographically homogeneous regions should be preceded preferentially This study was mainly conducted to derive the optimal regionalization of the precipitation data which can be classified by the climatologically and geographically homogeneous regions all over the regions except Cheju and Wulreung islands in Korea. A total of 65 rain gauges were used to regional analysis of precipitation. Annual maximum series for the consecutive durations of 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 36, 48 and 72hr were used for various statistical analysis. Both K-means clustering and mean annual precipitation methods are used to identify homogeneous regions all over the regions. Nine and five homogeneous regions for the precipitation were classified by the K-means clustering and mean annual methods, respectively. Finally, Five homogeneous regions were established by the trial and error method with homogeneity test using statistics of $\chi$$^2$ distribution.

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Precision and Safety Comparison for SM, CRM and ATD in Phase I Clinical Trials (제 1상 임상시험의 SM, CRM, ATD에서 결정된 MTD의 정확성과 안전성 비교)

  • Kim, Dong-Uk;Kil, Sun-Kyoung
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.51-65
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of a phase I clinical trial is to determine the maximum tolerated dose(MTD) of a new drug. This paper investigates the performance of standard method, continual reassessment method and accelerated titration designs in phase I clinical trials. Especially we study the precision and safety at the MTD of these methods. We utilize hyperbolic tangent function and power function to define dose-toxicity model. For each method, expected toxicity rate at MTD is computed and compared with target toxicity probability. We also suggest some modifications of these methods and show some improvements in performance.

A Study on the effect of the academic performance on flight aptitude (학생조종사의 학업성취도가 비행적성에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Noh, Yo-Sup
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2009
  • Since the success of the first flight, vast advancements have been made to the aircrafts with recent developments incorporating highly complex mechanisms, placing greater emphasis on the competence of the pilot. Studies are currently being undertaken to effectively source the trainee pilots with the most ideal level of aptitude for aviation with an aim to optimise the selection process with focus on economy and time, while research into identifying the optimal human characteristics for aviation is being done. As part of the selection process, number of tests is arranged with focus on the individual competence, suitability for flight, health status, aptitude and intelligence with the results of the tests used as reference materials during the selection procedure. This study has investigated the effect the academic competence has on the aptitude for aviation amongst many other abilities of human beings and the findings show that higher levels of aptitude have been demonstrated by the students who have displayed academic excellence across all the courses with statistics pointing to a positive correlation between the two subjects. This supports the theory that students who are academically superior have higher probability of being found to possess greater level of flight aptitude. The outcome of the study iterates the fact that academic competence of the students should not be regarded lightly in the selection process. Based on the current study, it is believed that a research into determining the relationship between the SAT results, average yearly grade and flight aptitude will help identify the key factors in possessing high level of flight aptitude with greater certainty.

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The Effect of Social Support on Youth Student-Athletes' Stress and Deviant Behavior (사회적지지가 청소년 운동선수들의 스트레스 및 일탈행동에 미치는 영향)

  • Kwon, Wook-Dong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.8
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    • pp.5198-5206
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of social support from friend, senior junior, and coach on student-athletes' stress and deviant behavior. By using convenience sampling method of non-probability sampling, a total of 350 student-athletes from D and G city were selected. Of 217 copies of the questionnaire gathered, 35 were discarded owing to having excessive missing values. Thus, by analysing a total of 182 surveys with structural equation modeling through AMOS 20.0 statistics program, this study found the followings. First, social support has a negative influence on stress. Second, stress has a positive influence on deviant behavior. Third, social support has a negative influence on deviant behavior mediated by stress.

Redesigning KNSO s Household Survey Sample (통계청 가구부문 조사의 표본설계)

  • 윤연옥;김규영;이명호
    • Survey Research
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.103-130
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    • 2004
  • Main monthly household surveys conducted by Korea National Statistical Office are economically active population survey(EAPS) and household income and expenditure survey(HIES). Samples of these two surveys are redesigned every 5 years based on Census. This paper is about sample redesign of household survey conducted in 2002 based on 2000 Census. Main improvements of 2002 sample redesign are the introduction of rotation sampling system, the expansion of HIES survey area from urban to whole country and the foundation of basement to make small area estimation for the unemployment statistics. Also the number of sample households within a enumeration district(ED) is reduced from 24 to 20. That makes it possible to select more ED samples which provides better precision for EAPS and HIES. To select representative samples for the population, different classification index is used for each metropolitan area and provinces.

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The Study of National Assessment of Educational Achievement in Elementary Mathematics in 2001 (2001년도 국가수준의 초등학교 수학과 교육성취도 평가 연구)

  • 황혜정;한경혜
    • Education of Primary School Mathematics
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.121-142
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    • 2001
  • The goal of the National Assessment of Educational Achievement(NAEA) 2001 was to affirm the accountability of school education, to scientifically manage and elevate the quality of education at the national level, and to articulate the final design of the NAEA. It was implemented on June 28th of the year 2001. The assessment frame for NAEA includes the achievement standards, the assessment standards, the instruction for the item development, and the grading policy for mathematics subject. Most of items are multiple-choice types, but the performance-based items should be at least thirty percent of the total items, also 30% in case of mathematics. Approximately 1% of students among entire population of the Grades 6 were randomly selected. Therefore, the finally sampled examines were 8023 at Grade 6. The result of the analysis of the NAEA revealed that Grade 6 students was labelled as ‘average’ level in general (Number and Operation: average, Geometric figures: average, Patterns and Functions: excellent, Measurements: average, Letters and Expressions: average, Probability and Statistics: average). The most characteristic finding was that except for Grade 6(its average is 69.92), most secondary students obtained low test scores and its average of each grade is below 50 out of 100. Especially, the scores on the performance-based items were by and large very low. This finding implies that Korean students are not familiar with the kind of test items which requires expression of ideas and feelings and they are rather familiar with the multiple-choice items. Another interesting finding was that the students in small towns and remote areas showed significantly low scores in all four skills compared with Seoul, metropolitan cities and medium and small cities. This may be attributed from the fact that the remote areas do not have equal learning environment with regard to social and cultural experience, supply of various teaching materials, extracurricular lessons which are directly related to teaching and learning. These findings may be utilized as a reliable resource fur improving curriculum and teaching and learning in Mathematics.

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Seismic Fragility Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Bridge Piers According to Damage State (철근콘크리트 교량 교각의 손상상태에 따른 지진취약도 해석)

  • Jeon, Jeong Moon;Shin, Jae Kwan;Shim, Jae Yeob;Lee, Do Hyung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.1695-1705
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    • 2014
  • In the present study, a total of 275 tested specimens (149 of non-seismically designed and 126 of seismically designed) for reinforced concrete bridge piers with circular section have been investigated in order to suggest drift limits probabilistically according to damage states in seismic fragility analysis. Thus, quantitative damage states of the piers have been evaluated depending on details of the piers. Nonlinear time-history analyses have been conducted for a damaged bridge in terms of using the suggested drift limits. Then, seismic fragility analysis for a reinforced concrete bridge structure has been conducted using both suggested and existing drift limits. Comparative analyses have revealed that median values by the suggested limits is smaller than those by the existing limits. This implies that seismic performance of the structure can be overestimated when the existing limits are used.

Analysis of Channel Characteristics at Around 20 GHz for Satellite On-The-Move Terminal (이동형 위성단말을 위한 20 GHz 대역 채널 특성 분석)

  • Kwon, Kun-Sup;Heo, Jong-Wan;Hwang, Ki-Min;Lim, Chul-Min;Ryu, Heung-Gyoon
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.223-234
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    • 2014
  • This paper describes the analysis results of channel characteristics in the operating area of satellite OTM(On-The-Move) terminal. The communication channel between the Koreasat-5 and OTM terminal on a test car is measured and recorded from Daejeon to Daecheon, using the downlink frequency of around 20 GHz. And the measurement data are divided into two classes ; highway environment and national road environment, and then are statistically analyzed. The statistical evaluation of satellite channel is conducted by using probability density function and Markov model and then presents average connection duration(ACD), average fade duration( AFD), and level crossing rate(LCR) of highway environment and national road environment. Finally the statistics data of the two environments are compared with each other.

Dynamic recomposition of document category using user intention tree (사용자 의도 트리를 사용한 동적 카테고리 재구성)

  • Kim, Hyo-Lae;Jang, Young-Cheol;Lee, Chang-Hoon
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.8B no.6
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    • pp.657-668
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    • 2001
  • It is difficult that web documents are classified with exact user intention because existing document classification systems are based on word frequency number using single keyword. To improve this defect, first, we use keyword, a query, domain knowledge. Like explanation based learning, first, query is analyzed with knowledge based information and then structured user intention information is extracted. We use this intention tree in the course of existing word frequency number based document classification as user information and constraints. Thus, we can classify web documents with more exact user intention. In classifying document, structured user intention information is helpful to keep more documents and information which can be lost in the system using single keyword information. Our hybrid approach integrating user intention information with existing statistics and probability method is more efficient to decide direction and range of document category than existing word frequency approach.

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Fragility Assessment of Agricultural Facilities Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards (농업시설물에 대한 화산재 취약도 평가)

  • Ham, Hee Jung;Choi, Seung Hun;Lee, Sungsu;Kim, Ho-Jeong
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.493-500
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    • 2014
  • This paper presents findings from the assessment of the volcanic ash fragility for multi-hazard resisting vinyl greenhouse and livestock shed among the agricultural facilities. The volcanic ash fragility was evaluated by using a combination of the FOSM (first-order second-moment) method, available statistics of volcanic load, facility specifications, and building code. In this study, the evaluated volcanic ash fragilities represent the conditional probability of failure of the agricultural facilities over the full range of volcanic ash loads. For the evaluation, 6 types(ie., 2 single span, 2 tree crop, and 2 double span types) of multi-hazard resisting vinyl greenhouses and 3 types(ie., standard, coast, and mountain types) of livestock sheds are considered. All volcanic ash fragilities estimated in this study were fitted by using parameters of the GEV(generalized extreme value) distribution function, and the obtained parameters were complied into a database to be used in future. The volcanic ash fragilities obtained in this study are planning to be used to evaluate risk by volcanic ash when Mt. Baekdu erupts.