• 제목/요약/키워드: probability theory

검색결과 689건 처리시간 0.027초

변형된 샤논 엔트로피식을 이용한 온실가스 농도변화량 예측 (Estimation for the Variation of the Concentration of Greenhouse Gases with Modified Shannon Entropy)

  • 김상목;이도행;최얼;고미솔;양재규
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제22권11호
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    • pp.1473-1479
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    • 2013
  • Entropy is a measure of disorder or uncertainty. This terminology is qualitatively used in the understanding of its correlation to pollution in the environmental area. In this research, three different entropies were defined and characterized in order to quantify the qualitative entropy previously used in the environmental science. We are dealing with newly defined distinct entropies $E_1$, $E_2$, and $E_3$ originated from Shannon entropy in the information theory, reflecting concentration of three major green house gases $CO_2$, $N_2O$ and $CH_4$ represented as the probability variables. First, $E_1$ is to evaluate the total amount of entropy from concentration difference of each green house gas with respect to three periods, due to industrial revolution, post-industrial revolution, and information revolution, respectively. Next, $E_2$ is to evaluate the entropy reflecting the increasing of the logarithm base along with the accumulated time unit. Lastly, $E_3$ is to evaluate the entropy with a fixed logarithm base by 2 depending on the time. Analytical results are as follows. $E_1$ shows the degree of prediction reliability with respect to variation of green house gases. As $E_1$ increased, the concentration variation becomes stabilized, so that it follows from linear correlation. $E_2$ is a valid indicator for the mutual comparison of those green house gases. Although $E_3$ locally varies within specific periods, it eventually follows a logarithmic curve like a similar pattern observed in thermodynamic entropy.

PROPERTIES OF OPEN CLUSTERS CONTAINING BLUE STRAGGLERS

  • Lee, Hyun-Uk;Chang, Heon-Young
    • 천문학회지
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    • 제50권3호
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2017
  • The presence of blue stragglers pose challenges to standard stellar evolution theory, in the sense that explaining their presence demands a complex interplay between stellar evolution and cluster dynamics. In the meantime, mass transfer in binary systems and stellar collisions are widely studied as a blue straggler formation channel. We explore properties of the Galactic open clusters where blue stragglers are found, in attempting to estimate the relative importance of these two favored processes, by comparing them with those resulting from open clusters in which blue stragglers are absent as of now. Unlike previous studies which require a sophisticated process in understanding the implication of the results, this approach is straightforward and has resulted in a supplementary supporting evidence for the current view on the blue straggler formation mechanism. Our main findings are as follows: (1) Open clusters in which blue stragglers are present have a broader distribution with respect to the Z-axis pointing towards the North Galactic Pole than those in which blue stragglers are absent. The probability that two distributions with respect to the Z-axis are drawn from the same distribution is 0.2%. (2) Average values of $log_10(t)$ of the clusters with blue stragglers and those without blue stragglers are $8.58{\pm}0.232$ and $7.52{\pm}0.285$, respectively. (3) The clusters with blue stragglers tend to be relatively redder than the others, and are distributed broader in colors. (4) The clusters with blue stragglers are likely brighter than those without blue stragglers. (5) Finally, blue stragglers seem to form in condensed clusters rather than simply dense clusters. Hence, we conclude that mass transfer in binaries seems to be a relatively important physical mechanism of the generation of blue stragglers in open clusters, provided they are sufficiently old.

최소제곱법을 적용한 지적도근점측량 계산의 정확도 분석 (Accuracy Comparisons between Traditional Adjustment and Least Square Method)

  • 이종민;정완석;이사형
    • 지적과 국토정보
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    • 제45권2호
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    • pp.117-130
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    • 2015
  • 도근점측량과 같은 수평위치를 결정하는 방법 중 최소제곱법은 확률이론에 근거하여 잔차의 분산이 최소가 되는 조건을 만족하는 최확값을 산출하는 방법이다. 본 논문에서는 도선법으로 계산되는 현행 지적도근점측량의 성과와 최소제곱법을 적용한 도근점의 계산성과를 비교하고, 네트워크-RTK 측량결과와 각각의 조정방법에 대한 평균오차를 확인하였다. 실험 결과 최소제곱법이 도선법에 비해 폐합오차를 각 측점에 균등하게 배분하는 것을 확인하였으며, 네트워크-RTK 성과와의 평균오차도 도선법은 2.7cm, 최소제곱법은 2.2cm 산출되었다. 또한 과대오차가 발생한 경우 이를 확인하기 위한 방법으로 정방향 초기값과 역방향 초기값을 이용하여 수평각 과대오차를 확인할 수 있었으며, 관측된 측선거리와 계산된 측선 거리의 차이를 이용하여 거리 과대오차가 발생한 측선을 예측할 수 있었다.

Optimization of the construction scheme of the cable-strut tensile structure based on error sensitivity analysis

  • Chen, Lian-meng;Hu, Dong;Deng, Hua;Cui, Yu-hong;Zhou, Yi-yi
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • 제21권5호
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    • pp.1031-1043
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    • 2016
  • Optimization of the construction scheme of the cable-strut tensile structure based on error sensitivity analysis is studied in this paper. First, the element length was extracted as a fundamental variable, and the relationship between element length change and element internal force was established. By setting all pre-stresses in active cables to zero, the equation between the pre-stress deviation in the passive cables and the element length error was obtained to analyze and evaluate the error effects under different construction schemes. Afterwards, based on the probability statistics theory, the mathematical model of element length error is set up. The statistical features of the pre-stress deviation were achieved. Finally, a cable-strut tensile structure model with a diameter of 5.0 m was fabricated. The element length errors are simulated by adjusting the element length, and each member in one symmetrical unit was elongated by 3 mm to explore the error sensitivity of each type of element. The numerical analysis of error sensitivity was also carried out by the FEA model in ANSYS software, where the element length change was simulated by implementing appropriate temperature changes. The theoretical analysis and experimental results both indicated that different elements had different error sensitivities. Likewise, different construction schemes had different construction precisions, and the optimal construction scheme should be chosen for the real construction projects to achieve lower error effects, lower cost and greater convenience.

퍼지 추론을 이용한 최단 경로 탐색 알고리즘의 개발 (Development of the Shortest Route Search Algorithm Using Fuzzy Theory)

  • 정영근;박창호
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제23권8호
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    • pp.171-179
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    • 2005
  • 본 연구에서는 퍼지 추론을 이용하여 여러 가지 상황 변화에 따른 링크 속도를 예측, 이를 경로 탐색 시 고려하는 알고리즘을 구현하였다. 도로 상황의 변화에 영향을 미치는 요소들로는 시간대, 강수 정보, 차로 통제 정보의 세가지를 고려하였으며, 이에 따라 달라지는 통행링크 속도를 해당 링크의 통행비용으로 전환하여, 최단경로를 탐색하는 알고리즘을 구현하였다. 본 연구는 크게 세 부분으로 구성되어 있다. 첫째, 퍼지 변수를 설정하고, 퍼지이론을 이용하여 시간과 도로 상황에 따라 변화하는 링크속도를 예측한다. 이를 위해 각각의 퍼지 변수들에 대한 퍼지 멤버십 함수를 구축하고, 이를 링크 속도와 연결하기 위한 퍼지 추론 관계들을 설정한다. 둘째. 되추적(backtracking) 기법을 이용하여 위의 퍼지추론에 의해 변화되는 통행 속도를 반영한 최단 경로 탐색을 한다. 셋째, 본 연구의 알고리즘을 가상 네트워크에 적용하여 최단 경로를 도출한다. 결과로서 본 연구의 알고리즘을 이용한 통행경로는 변수의 변화에 따라 적절하게 우회경로를 선택하는 것으로 나타났다.

Underutilization 문제를 해결한 퍼지 신경회로망 모델 (A Fuzzy Neural Network Model Solving the Underutilization Problem)

  • 김용수;함창현;백용선
    • 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.354-358
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    • 2001
  • 본 논문에서는 underutilization 문제를 해결한 퍼지 신경회로망 모델을 제시한다. 이 퍼지 신경 회로망은 ART-1 신경회로망과 유사한 제어 구조를 가지고 있어 유연성이 있으면서도 안정성이 있다. 또한 연결강도의 초기화가 필요 없고 ART-1 신경회로망에 비하여 잡음에 민감하지 않다. 이 퍼지 신경회로망의 학습법칙은 코호넨의 학습법칙을 변형하고 퍼지화 하였으며 누설 경쟁학습의 퍼지화와 조건 확률의 퍼지화에 기반을 두고 있다. 출력 뉴런 중에서 승자를 정한 후에 행해지는 점검 테스트에서는 유사척도로 상대적 거리를 사용하였다. 이 상대적 거리는 유클리디안 거리와 함께 데이터와 클러스터들의 대푯값들 간의 상대적인 위치를 고려한 것이다. 본 논문에서 제안한 퍼지 신경회로망과 코호넨 자기 조직화 특징 지도의 성능을 비교하기 위하여 널리 사용되어온 IRIS 데이터와 가우시안 분포 데이터를 사용하였다.

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청소년의 학교주변 유해환경 이용과 건강위험형태 분석 (Adolescents' Use of Harmful Environment and Correlates of Risk Health Behaviors)

  • 이호진;이명선
    • 보건교육건강증진학회지
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.129-140
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    • 2001
  • Harmful environment around school area have been increased with socio-economic development in Korea. Those entertainment facilities have caused a negative effect on the learning environment in many schools. As a result of increased entertainment harmful facilities in school area, the numbers of deviant behaviors such as drinking, smoking, substance abuse and sexual activity among junior high school students have been significantly increased. Given this situation, the aim of this study was to describe the distribution of the facilities; to access applied(experience) of the facilities according to students demographic variables; and to identify the relationship between use of the facilities and students risk health behaviors such as smoking, drinking, substance abuse and sexual activity. The field theory was used to study the relationship between the use of the facilities and risk health behaviors among students. A self-administered questionnaire survey was conducted in Korea. 2,114 junior and senior high school students(middle and high school students) were recruited by the method of proportional stratified random sampling from June to July 2000. Results indicated that: 1) The rates of using game centers, PC rooms, Song rooms and comic rooms were 78.3%, 75.6%, 71.6%, and 34.3% respectively. 2) High school students visited the entertainment facilities significantly more than middle school students(p〈0.001). 3) The rates of using facilities near schools were significantly associated with parents job(p〈0.05). 4) The rates of drinking, smoking, drug abuse, and sexual activity were 21.6%, 11.9%, 4.3% and 1.6% respectively. 5) Risk health behaviors such as smoking(p〈0.001) and drinking(p〈0.001), amount of smoking and drinking(p〈0.001) and sexual activity(p〈0.05) were associated with the experience of using the facilities. Those who had drinking experience were more likely to go the facilities than those without drinking experience. Also, those who were smoker had higher probability of going using the facilities than non-smokers.

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지형학적(地形學的) 순간단위도(瞬間單位圖)에 의한 첨두유량(尖頭流量)의 강우(降雨)-유출(流出) 선형해석(線形解析) (A Linear Analysis of the Relation between Rainfall and Runoff for Peak Flow based on Geomorphologic IUH)

  • 이정식;금재한;이원환
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제7권1호
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 1987
  • 단위도합성(單位圖合成)을 위하여 기존(旣存) 지형학적(地形學的) 순간단위도(瞬間單位圖)의 개념(槪念)을 도입(導入)하였다. 이를 위한 하천차수(河川次數)의 기법(技法)은 Strahler의 차수법칙(次數法則)을 이용(利用)하였으며, 하천수(河川水)의 동적상태(動的狀態)를 나타내기 위하여 평균유출속도(平均流出速度)가 사용(使用)되었다. 지형학적(地形學的) 특성인자(特性因子)들로부터 결정(決定)된 순간단위도(瞬間單位圖)를 IHP 대표시험유역(代表試驗流域)인 경안천(慶安川), 무심천(無心川), 위천유역(渭川流域)에 적용(適用)하여 첨두유량(尖頭流量) 및 도달시간(到達時間)을 계산(計算)하였고, 실측자료(實測資料)와의 비교검토(比較檢討)를 통하여 GUH의 적용성(適用性)을 입증(立證)하였으며, 증감(增減)된 평균류출속도(平均流出速度)와 가정(假定)된 손실율(損失率)을 적용(適用)시키므로써 수문곡선(水文曲線)의 첨두유량(尖頭流量)의 변화(變化)는 일정손실율(一定損失率) 보다 평균유출속도(平均流出速度)에 따라 크게 좌우(左右)됨을 알 수 있었다.

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시스템 다이나믹스를 활용한 원전 조직 및 인적인자 평가 (The System Dynamics Model for Assessment of Organizational and Human Factor in Nuclear Power Plant)

  • 안남성;곽상만;유재국
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2002년도 춘계학술대회발표논문집
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    • pp.19-40
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    • 2002
  • 경제 활동의 근간이 되는 에너지 공급원으로서의 원자력 발전소는 그 경제적 성과의 중요성뿐만 아니라 안전성을 확보하는 것도 매우 중요하다. <그림 1>에서 볼 수 있듯이 원전의 안전성은 하드웨어(hardware) 개선을 포함한 공학적 성능과 조직 및 인적 관리 요소에 대한 부분이 상호 작용하는 시스템 구조를 갖음에도 불구하고, 원전의 경제성과 안전성을 확보하기 위한 조직 및 인적 관리분야에 대한 연구는 기술분야에 비해 상대적으로 소홀히 취급된 경향이 있다.(중략)

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Lagrangian-Eulerian 기법을 이용한 고압 디젤 분무 시뮬레이션의 수치해석격자 의존성 저감에 관한 연구 (Reduction of a Numerical Grid Dependency in High-pressure Diesel Injection Simulation Using the Lagrangian-Eulerian CFD Method)

  • 김사엽;오윤중;박성욱;이창식
    • 한국자동차공학회논문집
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.39-45
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    • 2012
  • In the standard CFD code, Lagrangian-Eulerian method is very popular to simulate the liquid spray penetrating into gaseous phase. Though this method can give a simple solution and low computational cost, it have been reported that the Lagrangian spray models have numerical grid dependency, resulting in serious numerical errors. Many researches have shown the grid dependency arise from two sources. The first is due to unaccurate prediction of the droplet-gas relative velocity, and the second is that the probability of binary droplet collision is dependent on the grid resolution. In order to solve the grid dependency problem, the improved spray models are implemented in the KIVA-3V code in this study. For reducing the errors in predicting the relative velocity, the momentum gain from the gaseous phase to liquid particles were resolved according to the gas-jet theory. In addition, the advanced algorithm of the droplet collision modeling which surmounts the grid dependency problem was applied. Then, in order to validate the improved spray model, the computation is compared to the experimental results. By simultaneously regarding the momentum coupling and the droplet collision modeling, successful reduction of the numerical grid dependency could be accomplished in the simulation of the high-pressure injection diesel spray.