• 제목/요약/키워드: probability prediction

검색결과 776건 처리시간 0.025초

Wireless sensor networks for permanent health monitoring of historic buildings

  • Zonta, Daniele;Wu, Huayong;Pozzi, Matteo;Zanon, Paolo;Ceriotti, Matteo;Mottola, Luca;Picco, Gian Pietro;Murphy, Amy L.;Guna, Stefan;Corra, Michele
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • 제6권5_6호
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    • pp.595-618
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    • 2010
  • This paper describes the application of a wireless sensor network to a 31 meter-tall medieval tower located in the city of Trento, Italy. The effort is motivated by preservation of the integrity of a set of frescoes decorating the room on the second floor, representing one of most important International Gothic artworks in Europe. The specific application demanded development of customized hardware and software. The wireless module selected as the core platform allows reliable wireless communication at low cost with a long service life. Sensors include accelerometers, deformation gauges, and thermometers. A multi-hop data collection protocol was applied in the software to improve the system's flexibility and scalability. The system has been operating since September 2008, and in recent months the data loss ratio was estimated as less than 0.01%. The data acquired so far are in agreement with the prediction resulting a priori from the 3-dimensional FEM. Based on these data a Bayesian updating procedure is employed to real-time estimate the probability of abnormal condition states. This first period of operation demonstrated the stability and reliability of the system, and its ability to recognize any possible occurrence of abnormal conditions that could jeopardize the integrity of the frescos.

다양한 지구통계기법의 지하매질 예측능 및 적용성 비교연구 (Comparative Analysis of Subsurface Estimation Ability and Applicability Based on Various Geostatistical Model)

  • 안정우;정진아;박은규
    • 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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    • 제19권4호
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    • pp.31-44
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    • 2014
  • In the present study, a few of recently developed geostatistical models are comparatively studied. The models are two-point statistics based sequential indicator simulation (SISIM) and generalized coupled Markov chain (GCMC), multi-point statistics single normal equation simulation (SNESIM), and object based model of FLUVSIM (fluvial simulation) that predicts structures of target object from the provided geometric information. Out of the models, SNESIM and FLUVSIM require additional information other than conditioning data such as training map and geometry, respectively, which generally claim demanding additional resources. For the comparative studies, three-dimensional fluvial reservoir model is developed considering the genetic information and the samples, as input data for the models, are acquired by mimicking realistic sampling (i.e. random sampling). For SNESIM and FLUVSIM, additional training map and the geometry data are synthesized based on the same information used for the objective model. For the comparisons of the predictabilities of the models, two different measures are employed. In the first measure, the ensemble probability maps of the models are developed from multiple realizations, which are compared in depth to the objective model. In the second measure, the developed realizations are converted to hydrogeologic properties and the groundwater flow simulation results are compared to that of the objective model. From the comparisons, it is found that the predictability of GCMC outperforms the other models in terms of the first measure. On the other hand, in terms of the second measure, the both predictabilities of GCMC and SNESIM are outstanding out of the considered models. The excellences of GCMC model in the comparisons may attribute to the incorporations of directional non-stationarity and the non-linear prediction structure. From the results, it is concluded that the various geostatistical models need to be comprehensively considered and comparatively analyzed for appropriate characterizations.

Development of safety-Based Guidelines for Cost-Effective Utility Pole Treatment along Highway Rights-of-way

  • 김정현
    • 대한교통학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한교통학회 1997년도 제32회 학술발표회
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    • pp.35-72
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    • 1997
  • This study was conducted to develop a methodology to predict utility pole accident rates and to evaluate cost-effectiveness for safety improvement for utility pole accidents. The utility pole accident rate prediction model was based on the encroachment rate approach introduced in the Transportation Research Board special Report 214. The utility pole accident rate on a section of highway depends on the roadside encroachment rate and the lateral extent of encroachment. The encroachment rate is influenced by the horizontal and vertical alignment of the highway as well as traffic volume and mean speed. The lateral extent of encroachment is affected by the horizontal and vertical alignment, the mean speed and the roadside slope. An analytical method to generate the probability distribution function for the lateral extent of encroachment was developed for six kinds of encroachment types by the horizontal alignment and encroachment direction. The encroachment rate was calibrated with the information on highway and roadside conditions and the utility pole accident records collected on the sections of 55mph speed limit of the State Trunk Highway 12 in Wisconsin. The encroachment rate on tangent segment was calibrated as a function of traffic volume with the actual average utility pole accident rates by traffic volume strategies. The adjustment factors for horizontal and vertical alignment were when derived by comparing the actual average utility pole accident rates to the estimations from the model calibrated for tangent and level sections. A computerized benefit-cost analysis procedure was then developed as a means of evaluating alternative countermeasures. The program calculates the benefit-cost ratio and the percent of reduction of utility pole accidents resulting from the implementation of a safety improvement. This program can be used to develop safety improvement alternatives for utility pole accidents when a predetermined performance level is specified.

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Relationship between Progressive Changes in Lamina Cribrosa Depth and Deterioration of Visual Field Loss in Glaucomatous Eyes

  • Kim, You Na;Shin, Joong Won;Sung, Kyung Rim
    • Korean Journal of Ophthalmology
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    • 제32권6호
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    • pp.470-477
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: To investigate the relationship between the progression of visual field (VF) loss and changes in lamina cribrosa depth (LCD) as determined by spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) enhanced depth imaging in patients with primary open angle glaucoma (POAG). Methods: Data from 60 POAG patients (mean follow-up, $3.5{\pm}0.7$ years) were included in this retrospective study. The LCD was measured in the optic disc image using SD-OCT enhanced depth imaging scanning at each visit. Change in the LCD was considered to either 'increase' or 'decrease' when the differences between baseline and the latest two consecutive follow-up visits were greater than the corresponding reproducibility coefficient value ($23.08{\mu}m$, as determined in a preliminary reproducibility study). All participants were divided into three groups: increased LCD (ILCD), decreased LCD (DLCD), and no LCD change (NLCD). The Early Manifest Glaucoma Trial criteria were used to define VF deterioration. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox's proportional hazard models were performed to explore the relationship between VF progression and LCD change. Results: Of the 60 eyes examined, 35.0% (21 eyes), 28.3% (17 eyes), and 36.7% (22 eyes) were classified as the ILCD, DLCD, and NLCD groups, respectively. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed a greater cumulative probability of VF progression in the ILCD group than in the NLCD (p < 0.001) or DLCD groups (p = 0.018). Increased LCD was identified as the only risk factor for VF progression in the Cox proportional hazard models (hazard ratio, 1.008; 95% confidence interval, 1.000 to 1.015; p = 0.047). Conclusions: Increased LCD was associated with a greater possibility of VF progression. The quantitative measurement of LCD changes, determined by SD-OCT, is a potential biomarker for the prediction of VF deterioration in patients with POAG.

초저출산율에 따른 시도별 출산율 변동을 반영한 예측 연구 (A study on prediction for reflecting variation of fertility rate by province under ultra-low fertility in Korea)

  • 오진호
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제34권1호
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    • pp.75-98
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    • 2021
  • 본 논문은 전국과 시도별 출산율의 관계를 규명하는 세 가지 통계적 모형을 비교한다. 세 모형은 10년간 평균 연령별 누적출산율의 Gompit변환 자료를 대입한 회귀모형, 연령별 출산율 자료 변환 없이 원자료를 적용한 회귀모형, 그리고 확률과정 관점에서 불안정한 연령별 출산율 시계열을 적합할 경우 고려할 수 있는 공적분 모형이다. 본 논문은 전국과 지역간 비정상성 출산율의 관계를 도출하고자 할 때 다음을 제안한다. 전국과 지역 출산율의 공적분 관계식를 선행적으로 도출한다. 더 나아가 이 관계가 유의하지 않으면 변환 없는 원자료를 활용한 회귀모형 접근으로 전국과 시도별 출산율 관계를 살펴보는 것을 제안한다. 또한 Gompit 변환 자료를 대입한 회귀모형 방법은 출산율이 다른 방식과 비교해 과대추정되는 결과가 도출되었다. 끝으로 서울, 부산, 대구, 인천, 광주, 대전, 경기는 2025-2030년까지 타 지역과 다르게 합계출산율이 1.0명 이하로 예측되므로 시급하고 효율성 있는 출산율 제고정책이 필요하다고 판단된다.

국지성 집중호우 감시를 위한 천리안위성 2A호 대류운 전조 탐지 알고리즘 개발 (Development of GK2A Convective Initiation Algorithm for Localized Torrential Rainfall Monitoring)

  • 박혜인;정성래;박기홍;문재인
    • 대기
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    • 제31권5호
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    • pp.489-510
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we propose an algorithm for detecting convective initiation (CI) using GEO-KOMPSAT-2A/advanced meteorological imager data. The algorithm identifies clouds that are likely to grow into convective clouds with radar reflectivity greater than 35 dBZ within the next two hours. This algorithm is developed using statistical and qualitative analysis of cloud characteristics, such as atmospheric instability, cloud top height, and phase, for convective clouds that occurred on the Korean Peninsula from June to September 2019. The CI algorithm consists of four steps: 1) convective cloud mask, 2) cloud object clustering and tracking, 3) interest field tests, and 4) post-processing tests to remove non-convective objects. Validation, performed using 14 CI events that occurred in the summer of 2020 in Korean Peninsula, shows a total probability of detection of 0.89, false-alarm ratio of 0.46, and mean lead-time of 39 minutes. This algorithm can be useful warnings of rapidly developing convective clouds in future by providing information about CI that is otherwise difficult to predict from radar or a numerical prediction model. This CI information will be provided in short-term forecasts to help predict severe weather events such as localized torrential rainfall and hail.

YOLOv5와 모션벡터를 활용한 트램-보행자 충돌 예측 방법 연구 (A Study of Tram-Pedestrian Collision Prediction Method Using YOLOv5 and Motion Vector)

  • 김영민;안현욱;전희균;김진평;장규진;황현철
    • 정보처리학회논문지:소프트웨어 및 데이터공학
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    • 제10권12호
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    • pp.561-568
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    • 2021
  • 최근 자율주행에 관한 기술은 고부가가치 신기술로서 주목받고 있으며 활발히 연구가 진행되고 있는 분야이다. 상용화 가능한 자율주행을 위해서는 실시간으로 정확하게 진입하는 객체를 탐지하고 이동속도를 추정해야 한다. CNN(Convolutional Neural Network) 기반 딥러닝 알고리즘과 밀집광학흐름(Dense Optical Flow)을 사용하는 기존 방식은 실행 속도가 느려 실시간으로 객체를 탐지하고 이동속도를 추정하기에는 한계가 존재한다. 본 논문에서는 트램에 설치된 카메라를 통해 획득된 주행영상에서 딥러닝 알고리즘인 YOLOv5 알고리즘을 활용하여 실시간으로 객체를 탐지를 수행하고, 탐지된 객체영역에서 기존의 밀집광학흐름(Dense Optical Flow) 대신 연산량을 개선한 부분 밀집광학흐름(Local Dense Optical Flow)을 사용하여 객체의 진행 방향과 속력을 빠르게 추정하는 방식을 제안한다. 이를 바탕으로 충돌 시간과 충돌 지점을 예측할 수 있는 모델을 설계하였으며, 이를 통해 트램(Tram)의 주행 중 전방 충돌사고를 방지할 수 있는 시스템에 적용하고자 한다.

한국 물리치료사 국가 면허시험 합격 여부의 예측요인 탐색 (Exploring the Predictive Factors of Passing the Korean Physical Therapist Licensing Examination)

  • 김소현;조성현
    • 대한통합의학회지
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.107-117
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    • 2022
  • Purpose : The purpose of this study was to establish a model of the predictive factors for success or failure of examinees undertaking the Korean physical therapist licensing examination (KPTLE). Additionally, we assessed the pass/fail cut-off point. Methods : We analyzed the results of 10,881 examinees who undertook the KPTLE, using data provided by the Korea Health Personnel Licensing Examination Institute. The target variable was the test result (pass or fail), and the input variables were: sex, age, test subject, and total score. Frequency analysis, chi-square test, descriptive statistics, independent t-test, correlation analysis, binary logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed on the data. Results : Sex and age were not significant predictors of attaining a pass (p>.05). The test subjects with the highest probability of passing were, in order, medical regulation (MR) (Odds ratio (OR)=2.91, p<.001), foundations of physical therapy (FPT) (OR=2.86, p<.001), diagnosis and evaluation for physical therapy (DEPT) (OR=2.74, p<.001), physical therapy intervention (PTI) (OR=2.66, p<.001), and practical examination (PE) (OR=1.24, p<.001). The cut-off points for each subject were: FPT, 32.50; DEPT, 29.50; PTI, 44.50; MR, 14.50; and PE, 50.50. The total score (TS) was 164.50. The sensitivity, specificity, and the classification accuracy of the prediction model was 99 %, 98 %, and 99 %, respectively, indicating high accuracy. Area under the curve (AUC) values for each subject were: FPT, .958; DEPT, .968; PTI, .984; MR, .885; PE, .962; and TS, .998, indicating a high degree of fit. Conclusion : In our study, the predictive factors for passing KPTLE were identified, and the optimal cut-off point was calculated for each subject. Logistic regression was adequate to explain the predictive model. These results will provide universities and examinees with useful information for predicting their success or failure in the KPTLE.

The relationship of E-selectin single-nucleotide polymorphisms with breast cancer in Iraqi Arab women

  • Bilal Fadil Zakariya;Asmaa M. Salih Almohaidi;Secil Akilli Simsek;Safaa A. Al-Waysi;Wijdan H. Al-Dabbagh;Areege Mustafa Kamal
    • Genomics & Informatics
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    • 제20권4호
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    • pp.42.1-42.11
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    • 2022
  • Breast cancer (BC) is a significant threat to female health, with both modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors. It is essential to monitor patients regularly and to raise population awareness. Increasing research also suggests that E-selectin (SELE) may increase tumor angiogenesis and the development of cancer. This study investigated SELE single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the following positions: rs5367T/C, rs5368C/T, rs5362T/G, and rs5362T/C. Using polymerase chain reaction, significant differences in allele and genotype frequencies were found between BC patients and controls. Position rs5368 was associated with an increased risk of BC for the CT and TT genotypes, with odds ratios (ORs) of 16.3 and 6.90 (Fisher probability = 0.0001, p = 0.005). Women with the T allele had a 19.3-fold higher incidence of BC, while allele C may be a protective allele against BC (OR, 0.05). Heterozygous genotypes at rs5367, rs5362, and rs5362 were significantly more common in BC patients, with ORs of 5.70, 4.50, and 3.80, respectively. These SNPs may be associated with the risk of BC, because the frequency of mutant alleles was significantly higher in patients (OR: 4.26, 3.83, and 4.30, respectively) than in controls (OR: 0.23, 0.30, and 0.20, respectively). These SNPs may be considered a common genotype in the Iraqi population, with the wild-type allele having a protective fraction and the mutant allele having an environmental fraction. The results also revealed a 2-fold increase in gene expression in BC patients compared to controls, with a significant effect (p = 0.017). This study's findings confirm the importance of SELE polymorphisms in cancer risk prediction.

A Comparative Study of Predictive Factors for Hypertension using Logistic Regression Analysis and Decision Tree Analysis

  • SoHyun Kim;SungHyoun Cho
    • Physical Therapy Rehabilitation Science
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    • 제12권2호
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    • pp.80-91
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    • 2023
  • Objective: The purpose of this study is to identify factors that affect the incidence of hypertension using logistic regression and decision tree analysis, and to build and compare predictive models. Design: Secondary data analysis study Methods: We analyzed 9,859 subjects from the Korean health panel annual 2019 data provided by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs and National Health Insurance Service. Frequency analysis, chi-square test, binary logistic regression, and decision tree analysis were performed on the data. Results: In logistic regression analysis, those who were 60 years of age or older (Odds ratio, OR=68.801, p<0.001), those who were divorced/widowhood/separated (OR=1.377, p<0.001), those who graduated from middle school or younger (OR=1, reference), those who did not walk at all (OR=1, reference), those who were obese (OR=5.109, p<0.001), and those who had poor subjective health status (OR=2.163, p<0.001) were more likely to develop hypertension. In the decision tree, those over 60 years of age, overweight or obese, and those who graduated from middle school or younger had the highest probability of developing hypertension at 83.3%. Logistic regression analysis showed a specificity of 85.3% and sensitivity of 47.9%; while decision tree analysis showed a specificity of 81.9% and sensitivity of 52.9%. In classification accuracy, logistic regression and decision tree analysis showed 73.6% and 72.6% prediction, respectively. Conclusions: Both logistic regression and decision tree analysis were adequate to explain the predictive model. It is thought that both analysis methods can be used as useful data for constructing a predictive model for hypertension.