• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability of loss

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Development of a Computation Code for the Verification of the Vulnerability Criteria for Surf-riding and Broaching Mode of IMO Second-Generation Intact Stability Criteria (IMO 2세대 선박 복원성 기준에 따른 서프라이딩/ 브로칭 취약성 기준 검증을 위한 계산 코드 개발)

  • Shin, Dong Min;Oh, Kyoung-gun;Moon, Byung Young
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.518-525
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    • 2019
  • Recently, the Sub-Committee on SDC (Ship Design and Construction) of IMO have discussed actively the technical issues associated with the second-generation intact stability criteria of ships. Generally, second generation intact stability criteria refer to vulnerability five modes ship stability which occurs when the ship navigating in rough seas. As waves passes the ship, dynamic roll motion phenomenon will affect ship stability that may lead to capsizing. Multi-tiered approach for second generation of intact stability criteria of IMO instruments covers apply for all ships. Each ship is checked for vulnerability to pure loss of stability, parametric roll, and broaching/surf-riding phenomena using L1(level 1) vulnerability criteria. If a possible vulnerability is detected, then the L2(level 2) criteria is used, followed by direct stability assessment, if necessary. In this study, we propose a new method to verify the criteria of the surf-riding/broaching mode of small ships. In case, L1 vulnerability criteria is not satisfied based on the relatively simple calculation using the Froude number, we presented the calculation code for the L2 criteria considering the hydrodynamics in waves to perform the more complicated calculation. Then the vulnerability criteria were reviewed based on the data for a given ship. The value of C, which is the probability of the vulnerability criteria for surf-riding/broaching, was calculated. The criteria value C is considered in new approach method using the Froude-Krylov force and the diffraction force. The result shows lower values when considering both the Froude-rylov force and the diffraction force than with only the Froude-Krylov force was considered. This difference means that when dynamic roll motion of ship, more exact wave force needs considered for second generation intact stability criteria This result will contribute to basic ship design process according to the IMO Second-Generation Intact Stability Criteria.

Development of A Recovery Algorithm for Sparse Signals based on Probabilistic Decoding (확률적 희소 신호 복원 알고리즘 개발)

  • Seong, Jin-Taek
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.409-416
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we consider a framework of compressed sensing over finite fields. One measurement sample is obtained by an inner product of a row of a sensing matrix and a sparse signal vector. A recovery algorithm proposed in this study for sparse signals based probabilistic decoding is used to find a solution of compressed sensing. Until now compressed sensing theory has dealt with real-valued or complex-valued systems, but for the processing of the original real or complex signals, the loss of the information occurs from the discretization. The motivation of this work can be found in efforts to solve inverse problems for discrete signals. The framework proposed in this paper uses a parity-check matrix of low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes developed in coding theory as a sensing matrix. We develop a stochastic algorithm to reconstruct sparse signals over finite field. Unlike LDPC decoding, which is published in existing coding theory, we design an iterative algorithm using probability distribution of sparse signals. Through the proposed recovery algorithm, we achieve better reconstruction performance as the size of finite fields increases. Since the sensing matrix of compressed sensing shows good performance even in the low density matrix such as the parity-check matrix, it is expected to be actively used in applications considering discrete signals.

Additive hazards models for interval-censored semi-competing risks data with missing intermediate events (결측되었거나 구간중도절단된 중간사건을 가진 준경쟁적위험 자료에 대한 가산위험모형)

  • Kim, Jayoun;Kim, Jinheum
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.539-553
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    • 2017
  • We propose a multi-state model to analyze semi-competing risks data with interval-censored or missing intermediate events. This model is an extension of the three states of the illness-death model: healthy, disease, and dead. The 'diseased' state can be considered as the intermediate event. Two more states are added into the illness-death model to incorporate the missing events, which are caused by a loss of follow-up before the end of a study. One of them is a state of the lost-to-follow-up (LTF), and the other is an unobservable state that represents an intermediate event experienced after the occurrence of LTF. Given covariates, we employ the Lin and Ying additive hazards model with log-normal frailty and construct a conditional likelihood to estimate transition intensities between states in the multi-state model. A marginalization of the full likelihood is completed using adaptive importance sampling, and the optimal solution of the regression parameters is achieved through an iterative quasi-Newton algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to investigate the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimation method in terms of empirical coverage probability of true regression parameters. Our proposed method is also illustrated with a dataset adapted from Helmer et al. (2001).

Lifetime Reliability Based Life-Cycle Cost-Effective Optimum Design of Steel Bridges (생애 신뢰성에 기초한 강교의 LCC최적설계)

  • Lee, Kwang Min;Cho, Hyo Nam;Cha, CheolJun;Kim, Seong Hun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.1A
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    • pp.75-89
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    • 2006
  • This paper presents a practical and realistic Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) optimum design methodology of steel bridges considering time effect of bridge reliability under environmental stressors such as corrosion and heavy truck traffics. The LCC functions considered in the LCC optimization consist of initial cost, expected life-cycle maintenance cost and expected life-cycle rehabilitation costs including repair/replacement costs, loss of contents or fatality and injury losses, road user costs, and indirect socio-economic losses. For the assessment of the life-cycle rehabilitation costs, the annual probability of failure which depends upon the prior and updated load and resistance histories should be accounted for. For the purpose, Nowak live load model and a modified corrosion propagation model considering corrosion initiation, corrosion rate, and repainting effect are adopted in this study. The proposed methodology is applied to the LCC optimum design problem of an actual steel box girder bridge with 3 continuous spans (40 m+50 m+40 m=130 m), and various sensitivity analyses of types of steel, local corrosion environments, average daily traffic volume, and discount rates are performed to investigate the effects of various design parameters and conditions on the LCC-effectiveness. From the numerical investigation, it has been observed that local corrosion environments and the number of truck traffics significantly influence the LCC-effective optimum design of steel bridges, and thus realized that these conditions should be considered as crucial parameters for the optimum LCC-effective design.

Life-Cycle Cost-Effective Optimum Design of Steel Bridges Considering Environmental Stressors (환경영향인자를 고려한 강교의 생애주기비용 최적설계)

  • Lee, Kwang Min;Cho, Hyo Nam;Cha, Cheol Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.17 no.2 s.75
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    • pp.227-241
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents a practical and realistic Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) optimum design methodology for steel bridges considering the long-term effect of environmental stressors such as corrosion and heavy truck traffics on bridge reliability. The LCC functions considered in the LCC optimization consist of initial cost, expected life-cycle maintenance cost, and expected life-cycle rehabilitation costs including repair/replacement costs, loss of contents or fatality and injury losses, road user costs, and indirect socio-economic losses. For the assessment of the life-cycle rehabilitation costs, the annual probability of failure, which depends upon the prior and updated load and resistance histories, should be accounted for. For the purpose, Nowak live load model and a modified corrosion propagation model, which takes into consideration corrosion initiation, corrosion rate, and repainting effect, are adopted in this study. The proposed methodology is applied to the LCC optimum design problem of an actual steel box girder bridge with 3 continuous spans (40m+50m+40m=130m). Various sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the effects of various design parameters and conditions on the LCC-effectiveness. From the numerical investigation, it has been observed that local corrosion environments and the volume of truck traffic significantly influence the LCC-effective optimum design of steel bridges. Thus, these conditions should be considered as crucial parameters for the optimum LCC-effective design.

Risk analysis for sidetrack construction during subway tunnel operation (기존 지하철 터널 운영 중 대피선 건설 시공 리스크 분석)

  • Jun, Jonghun;Chung, Heeyoung;Koh, Sung-Yil;Yoon, Hee Taek;Yi, Na Hyun;Choi, Hangseok
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.401-417
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    • 2020
  • As an increasing demand for rapid railway transportation, the construction of sidetrack is inevitable to operate local and express trains simultaneously. However, the current technologies for the sidetrack construction method require a long construction period by interrupting the operation of the existing subway line, as well as cause a huge economic loss. Thus, it is necessary to study the sidetrack construction method under the special situation that the subway is in operation and to analyze the risk of the existing tunnel enlargement process for the sidetrack construction. Therefore, in this paper, the Government Complex Gwacheon station on Subway Line 4 was considered as a target station for the virtual sidetrack construction and the optimal sidetrack construction plan was derived. Subsequently, the application of risk management process was carried out in the order of identifying risk, risk response planning, performing a risk analysis, risk monitoring and control for potential risk events during the construction of sidetrack under the subway operation. A total of eight potential risk events and risk mitigation methods were selected, and a risk assessment matrix was established using the five-step risk probability and impact level criteria to perform the risk assessment including residual risks. Based on the results of the risk assessment, the risk grade and the reduction effect of each risk mitigation method were confirmed.

Research on The Crash Location and Speed Distribution of Low Altitude Fixed-Wing Aircraft (저고도 운용 고정익 항공기의 고장 시 추락지점 및 속도 분포 연구)

  • Nam, Hong-Su;Park, Bae-Seon;Lee, Hak-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2022
  • In order to solve the problem of urban traffic congestion, Urban Air Mobility (UAM) concept using Electric Vertical Take-off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft has been gaining popularity, and many domestic and international studies are underway. However, since these aircraft inevitably fly over densely populated areas, it is essential to ensure safety, which starts with accurately analyzing the crash risk. In this paper, the locations and impact speeds of crash are computed using six degree-of-freedom simulations of an eVTOL aircraft in a fixed-wing mode. System malfunction was modeled by a sudden loss of thrust with control surfaces being stuck during cruise. Because most of these eVTOL aircraft are still under development, a methodology of constructing a six degree-of-freedom dynamics model from generic specification is also developed. The results show that the crash locations are highly concentrated right under the aircraft within a square that has an edge length similar to the cruise altitude. Speed distribution is more complicated because almost identical crash locations can be achieved by two very different paths resulting in a large variation in the speeds.

Clarification of Korean Tangerine Juice Using Microfiltration Membrane Process (미세여과 공정을 이용한 제주산 감귤 주스의 청징화)

  • Lee, Eun-Young;Woo, Gun-Jo
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.448-457
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    • 1999
  • Citrus fruits are consumed worldwide due to their unique flavor and nutrition value. It is necessary to remove the haze material as well as to minimize the loss of major compounds such as organic acids, sugars, and ascorbic acid in membrane processes for clarification of juice. The objective of our research was to select the best membrane among one surface filter (Whatman No.4) and five microfiltration filters (GF/A, GF/D, GF/F, Gelman, and SM). Tangerine fresh blended with three times of water was partially clarified with 170 mesh followed by prefiltration in a Samduck filtration system. The best membrane was selected by measuring the amounts of major compounds in the permeates as well as the flux which were statistically analyzed with SAS program. The foulants on the membrane surface were observed by SEM. The flux of GF/A and GF/F decreased with time at probability 0.10. Gelman, SM, and GF/D maintained the stable flux. Gelman showed the highest total scores including nutritive value (the amounts of citrate, malate, and ascorbic acid) and purchasing need (brix and color). Therefore, the microfiltration membrane process was a very effective method in tangerine juice clarification and Gelman type A/E was proved to be the best membrane among the five microfiltration membranes.

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Analysis of Correlation between Construction Business and Insolvency of Construction Company (건설경기와 건설업체 부실화 간의 관계성 분석)

  • Seo, Jeong-Bum;Lee, Sang-Hyo;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.3-11
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    • 2013
  • The changes in construction business have impact on overall operation of construction companies. Poor business of construction companies following a s low industrial cycle could have broader implications and influences on the industry. Since a construction project involves various stakeholders including public organizations, financial institutions and households, a downturn in construction industry might lead to significant economic loss. In this regard, it is meaningful to examine the relationship between changes in construction business cycles and insolvency of construction companies. This study conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between construction business cycles and how much they affect operation of construction companies. To this end, KMV model was used to estimate probability of bankruptcy, which represents business condition of a construction company. To examine construction business cycles, investment amount for different construction types-residential, non-residential, and construction work-was used as a variable. Based on the investment amount, VECM was applied and the analysis results suggested that construction companies should put priority on diversifying project portfolio. In addition, it was shown that once a construction company becomes unstable in business operation, it is hard to recover even when the market condition turns for the better. This suggests that, to improve business operation of a construction company, internal capacity-building is as important as the market condition and other external circumstances.

Landslide Susceptibility Prediction using Evidential Belief Function, Weight of Evidence and Artificial Neural Network Models (Evidential Belief Function, Weight of Evidence 및 Artificial Neural Network 모델을 이용한 산사태 공간 취약성 예측 연구)

  • Lee, Saro;Oh, Hyun-Joo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.299-316
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze landslide susceptibility in the Pyeongchang area using Weight of Evidence (WOE) and Evidential Belief Function (EBF) as probability models and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a machine learning model in a geographic information system (GIS). This study examined the widespread shallow landslides triggered by heavy rainfall during Typhoon Ewiniar in 2006, which caused serious property damage and significant loss of life. For the landslide susceptibility mapping, 3,955 landslide occurrences were detected using aerial photographs, and environmental spatial data such as terrain, geology, soil, forest, and land use were collected and constructed in a spatial database. Seventeen factors that could affect landsliding were extracted from the spatial database. All landslides were randomly separated into two datasets, a training set (50%) and validation set (50%), to establish and validate the EBF, WOE, and ANN models. According to the validation results of the area under the curve (AUC) method, the accuracy was 74.73%, 75.03%, and 70.87% for WOE, EBF, and ANN, respectively. The EBF model had the highest accuracy. However, all models had predictive accuracy exceeding 70%, the level that is effective for landslide susceptibility mapping. These models can be applied to predict landslide susceptibility in an area where landslides have not occurred previously based on the relationships between landslide and environmental factors. This susceptibility map can help reduce landslide risk, provide guidance for policy and land use development, and save time and expense for landslide hazard prevention. In the future, more generalized models should be developed by applying landslide susceptibility mapping in various areas.