• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.58-66
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• 1998

Irrigation Reservoir Water Supply Index(IRWSI), which can be applied to the effective supply and management of the irrigation water resources, was developed. IRWSI was formulated as resealed nonexceedance probabilities of two hydrologic components : reservoir storage ratio and precipitation. To generate nonexceedance probability of hydrologic component, it was important to define the optimal one among the various probability distribution function in the state of nature. To define an optimal probability distribution, in this study, four types of probability distribution function were tested by the K-S fitting, and for the calculation of IRWSI, reservoir storage ratio(%) and precipitation used Normal distribution & Gamma distribution, respectively. In this study, the weight coefficients of a and b for each hydrologic component, which is precipitation and reservoir storage ratio, was decided as 0.8 and 0.2, respectively. While some studies changed weight coefficients according to the size of basin area, this study used same values without considering that. From the analysis of drought characteristics, it was found that the IRWSI was sensitive to the size of irrigation area rather than the size of basin area, and the south-eastern region of Korea had been suffered from severe drought damage.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.19 no.2 s.63
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• pp.40-46
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• 2005

In order to consider the statistical properties of probability variables which are used in structural analysis, the conventional approach of using safety factors based on past experience, are usually used to estimate the safety of a structure. The real structures could only be analyzed with the error in estimation of loads, materials and dimensional characteristics. Errors should be considered systematically in the structural analysis. In this paper, we estimated the probability of failure of two pressure vessels, simultaneously, using computational analysis. One pressure vessel, theoretically, had no stiffener whereas the other had. This paper also discusses sensitivity values of random variables in the rounded parts of the pressure vessel which had ring-style stiffener in the center of the external area which had ring-style stiffener. Finally, we show that the reliability index, and the probability of failure, can be calculated to particular tolerance limits.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.360-373
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• 2021

Many sources of uncertainty exist in geotechnical analysis ranging from the material parameters to the sampling and testing techniques. The conventional deterministic stability analysis of a plane failure in rock slope produce a safety factor but not a probability of failure or reliability index. In the conventional slope stability analysis by evaluating the ground uncertainty as an overall safety factor, it is difficult to evaluate the stability of the realistic rock slope in detail. This paper reviews some established probabilistic analysis techniques, such as the MCS, FOSM, PEM, Taylor Series as applied to plane failure of rock slopes in detail. While the Monte - Carlo methods leads to the most accurate calculation of the probability of safety, this method is too time consuming. Therefore, the simplified probability methods could be alternatives to the MCS. In this study, using these simple probability methods, the failure probability estimation of a plane failure in rock slope is presented.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.3
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• pp.207-219
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• 2018

In this study, the ecological flow rate of the Zacco playtypus habitat was simulated based on the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM) in reachs of urban and natural stream using the habitat suitability index (HSI) of the probability density function (PDF). To apply this method, PHABSIM model was used in this study. However, in this study, the HSI of the probability density function was developed by adjusting the parameters of the PDF based on Kang (2010) HSI. As a result, the normal distribution is closest to the ecological flow rate of the Kang (2010) in the urban stream. However, the two-parameter log-pearson distribution tended to be the closest in the natural stream. The ecological flow rate was simulated by the HSI and the reach of stream with the PDF. Based on the comparison of simulation results, we propose an ecological flow rate estimation method using probabilistic method.

• Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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• v.37 no.5
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• pp.1208-1221
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• 2020

The purpose of this study was to provide basic data for predicting the sports consumption market that Generation Z will lead by applying data mining based decision tree analysis to explore Generation Z sports consumption style. Therefore, the survey was conducted by selecting males and females aged 19 or older as a sample among Generation Z, and data of 429 people were used for the final analysis. For data processing, frequency analysis, exploratory factor analysis, retest and reliability analysis, and decision tree analysis were performed using the SPSS statistics (ver. 21.0) program. The main results of this study are as follows. First, if the rational efficiency index is high and the aesthetic consumption index is low, the probability of being classified as a group of female was 96.8%. On the other hand, if the rational efficiency and perception of price index were low, the probability of being classified as a male group was 100%. Second, if the brand orientation, perception of price, and rational efficiency index were high, the probability of being classified as a capital area group was 97.3%. Contrary to the results presented above, the probability of being classified as a other area group was 82.1% when the brand orientation, commemoration rites, and status symbol index were low. Third, the status symbol and trend oriented index were high, and if the functionality index was low, the probability of being classified into daily life and fashion groups was 77.6%. On the contrary, if the status symbol index is low, the retention of membership and enjoy consumption index is high, the probability of being classified into exercise and competition groups was 81.0%.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.36 no.spc1
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• pp.93-99
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• 2003

Various attempts have been made to explain the: pronounced seasonal and universal time (UT) variations of geomagnetic indices. As one of such attempts, we analyze the hourly-averaged auroral electroject indices obtained during the past 20 years. The AU and AL indices maximize during summer and equinoctial months, respectively. By normalizing the contribution of the solar conductivity enhancement to the AU index, or to the eastward electrojet, it is found that the AU also follows the same semiannual variation pattern of the AL index, suggesting that the electric field is the main modulator of the semiannual magnetic variation. The fact that the variation pattern of the yearly-mean AU index follows the mirror image of the AL index provides another indication that the electric field is the main modulator of magnetic disturbance. The pronounced UT variations of the auroral electrojet indices are also noted. To determine the magnetic activity dependence, the probability of recording a given activity level of AU and AL during each UT is examined. The UT variation of the AL index, thus obtained, shows a maximum at around 1200-1800 UT and a minimum around 0000-0800 UT particularly during winter. It is closely associated with the rotation of the geomagnetic pole around the rotational axis, which results in the change of the solar-originated ionospheric conductivity distribution over the polar region. On the other hand the UT variation is prominent during disturbed periods, indicating that the latitudinal mismatch between the AE stations and the auroral electrojet belt is responsible for it. Although not as prominent as the AL index, the probability distribution of the AU also shows two UT peaks. We confirm that the Dst index shows more prominent seasonal variation than the AE indices. However, the UT variation of the Dst index is only noticeable during the main phase of a magnetic storm. It is a combined result of the uneven distribution of the Dst stations and frequent developments of the partial ring current and substorm wedge current preferentially during the main phase.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.118-129
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• 2013

Since the obstacles and mines are of the risk factors for operating ships and submarines, the active sonar system is inevitably used to avoid the hazards in ocean environment. In this paper, modeling and simulation algorithm is used for active sonar systemto quantify the measure of mission achievability, which is known as Measure of Effectiveness(MOE), specifically for detection in this study. MOE for detection is directly formulated as a Cumulative Detection Probability(CDP) calculated from Probability of Detection(PD) in range and azimuth. The detection probability is calculated from Transmission Loss(TL) and the sonar parameters such asDirectivity Index (DI) calculated from the shape of transmitted and received array, steered beam patterns, and Reverberation Level (RL). The developed code is applied to demonstrating its applicability.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.37-50
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• 2002

Simultaneous estimation of accuracy and probability corresponding to a prediction interval is considered in this study. Traditional application of confidence interval forecasting consists in evaluation of interval limits for a given significance level. The wider is this interval, the higher is probability and the lower is the forecast precision. In this paper a measure of stochastic forecast accuracy is introduced, and a procedure for balanced estimation of both the predicting accuracy and confidence probability is elaborated. Solution can be obtained in an optimizing approach. Suggested method is applied to constructing confidence intervals for parameters estimated by normal and t distributions

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.367-382
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• 2015

This paper aims to conduct the reliability-based assessment of the welded joint in the orthotropic steel bridge deck by use of a mesh-insensitive structural stress (MISS) method, which is an effective numerical procedure to determine the reliable stress distribution adjacent to the weld toe. Both the solid element model and the shell element model are first established to investigate the sensitivity of the element size and the element type in calculating the structural stress under different loading scenarios. In order to achieve realistic condition assessment of the welded joint, the probabilistic approach based on the structural reliability theory is adopted to derive the reliability index and the failure probability by taking into account the uncertainties inherent in the material properties and load conditions. The limit state function is formulated in terms of the structural resistance of the material and the load effect which is described by the structural stress obtained by the MISS method. The reliability index is computed by use of the first-order reliability method (FORM), and compared with a target reliability index to facilitate the safety assessment. The results achieved from this study reveal that the calculation of the structural stress using the MISS method is insensitive to the element size and the element type, and the obtained structural stress results serve as a reliable basis for structural reliability analysis.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2008.10a
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• pp.378-381
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• 2008

The regulating and relaxing targets in the Land Use Regulation and Total Maximum Daily Loads are influenced by Land cover information. For the providing more accurate land information, this study attempted to generate an impervious surface map using KOMPSAT-2 image which a Korea manufactured high resolution satellite image. The classification progress of this study carried out by tasseled-cap spectral enhancement through each class extraction technique neither existing classification method. KOMPSAT-2 image of this study is enhanced by Soil Brightness Index(SBI), Green vegetation Index(GVI), None-Such wetness Index(NWI). Then ranges of extracted each index in enhanced image are determined. And then, Confidence Interval of classes was determined through the calculating Non-exceedance Probability. Spectral distributions of each class are changed according to changing of Control coefficient(${\alpha}$) at the calculated Non-exceedance Probability. Previously, Land cover classification map was generated based on established ranges of classes, and then, pervious and impervious surface was reclassified. Finally, impervious ratio of reclassified impervious surface map was calculated with blocks in the study area.