• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability as theoretical structure

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Seismic Fragility Analysis of Curved Beam with I-Shape Section (I-Shape 단면을 갖는 곡선 보의 지진 취약도 분석)

  • Jeon, Juntai;Ju, Bu-Seog;Son, Hoyoung
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.379-386
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: This study was to the fragility evaluation of I-shape curved beam structure subjected to strong ground motions including Gyeongju and Pohang earthquakes Method: In particular, to conduct the analytical model, ABAQUS and ANSYS platform was used in this study. Furthermore, the analytical model using 3D Finite Element Model (FEM) was validated, in comparison to the theoretical solutions at the location of 025L, 05L, and 0.75L in static loading condition. In addition, in order to evaluate the seismic fragility of the curved beam structure, 20 seismic ground motions were selected and Monte-Carlo Simulation was used for the empirical fragility evaluation from 0.2g to 1.5g. Result: It was interesting to find that the probability of the system failure was found at 0.2g, as using 190 MPa limit state and the probability of the failure using 390 MPa limit state was starting from 0.6g. Conclusion: This study showed the comparison of the theoretical solution with analytical solution on I-shaped curved beam structures and it was interesting to note that the system subjected to strong ground motions was sensitive to high frequency earthquake. Further, the seismic fragility corresponding to the curved beam shapes must be evaluated.

Prediction of Jacking Force Loss for Serviced High Speed Railway PSC BOX Bridge Using Constant Deflection (상시처짐을 이용한 공용중인 고속철도 PSC BOX교의 긴장력 손실 예측)

  • Jung-Youl Choi;Tae-Keun Kim;Jee-Seung Chung
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.549-555
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    • 2023
  • Jacking force loss management inside the PSC Box girder of a common high-speed railway is a very important feature in girder performance, and requires detailed management during the maintenance of the girder. This study aimed to analyze the timing of re-tension prediction of PSC Box girder based on the reduction level of the packing force inside the girder and the results of the tension loss measured without the train load test. As a result of predicting the timing of re-tension according to the level of tension reduction of the PSC Box Girder, the Jacking Force Loss curve was gently analyzed before the structure reached 17 years after confirmed completion, and 17 years later, it was found that the jacking force loss curve progressed rapidly. The results confirmed that the tension of the structure decreases with the service life increase, but considerably decreases as the structure ages. Therefore, more data and research on tension loss of facilities over 20 years are much required.

An optimized deployment strategy of smart smoke sensors in a large space

  • Liu, Pingshan;Fang, Junli;Huang, Hongjun
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.3544-3564
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    • 2022
  • With the development of the NB-IoT (Narrow band Internet of Things) and smart cities, coupled with the emergence of smart smoke sensors, new requirements and issues have been introduced to study on the deployment of sensors in large spaces. Previous research mainly focuses on the optimization of wireless sensors in some monitoring environments, including three-dimensional terrain or underwater space. There are relatively few studies on the optimization deployment problem of smart smoke sensors, and leaving large spaces with obstacles such as libraries out of consideration. This paper mainly studies the deployment issue of smart smoke sensors in large spaces by considering the fire probability of fire areas and the obstacles in a monitoring area. To cope with the problems of coverage blind areas and coverage redundancy when sensors are deployed randomly in large spaces, we proposed an optimized deployment strategy of smart smoke sensors based on the PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) algorithm. The deployment problem is transformed into a multi-objective optimization problem with many constraints of fire probability and barriers, while minimizing the deployment cost and maximizing the coverage accuracy. In this regard, we describe the structure model in large space and a coverage model firstly, then a mathematical model containing two objective functions is established. Finally, a deployment strategy based on PSO algorithm is designed, and the performance of the deployment strategy is verified by a number of simulation experiments. The obtained experimental and numerical results demonstrates that our proposed strategy can obtain better performance than uniform deployment strategies in terms of all the objectives concerned, further demonstrates the effectiveness of our strategy. Additionally, the strategy we proposed also provides theoretical guidance and a practical basis for fire emergency management and other departments to better deploy smart smoke sensors in a large space.

Optimization of the construction scheme of the cable-strut tensile structure based on error sensitivity analysis

  • Chen, Lian-meng;Hu, Dong;Deng, Hua;Cui, Yu-hong;Zhou, Yi-yi
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.1031-1043
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    • 2016
  • Optimization of the construction scheme of the cable-strut tensile structure based on error sensitivity analysis is studied in this paper. First, the element length was extracted as a fundamental variable, and the relationship between element length change and element internal force was established. By setting all pre-stresses in active cables to zero, the equation between the pre-stress deviation in the passive cables and the element length error was obtained to analyze and evaluate the error effects under different construction schemes. Afterwards, based on the probability statistics theory, the mathematical model of element length error is set up. The statistical features of the pre-stress deviation were achieved. Finally, a cable-strut tensile structure model with a diameter of 5.0 m was fabricated. The element length errors are simulated by adjusting the element length, and each member in one symmetrical unit was elongated by 3 mm to explore the error sensitivity of each type of element. The numerical analysis of error sensitivity was also carried out by the FEA model in ANSYS software, where the element length change was simulated by implementing appropriate temperature changes. The theoretical analysis and experimental results both indicated that different elements had different error sensitivities. Likewise, different construction schemes had different construction precisions, and the optimal construction scheme should be chosen for the real construction projects to achieve lower error effects, lower cost and greater convenience.

Option-type Default Forecasting Model of a Firm Incorporating Debt Structure, and Credit Risk (기업의 부채구조를 고려한 옵션형 기업부도예측모형과 신용리스크)

  • Won, Chae-Hwan;Choi, Jae-Gon
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.209-237
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    • 2006
  • Since previous default forecasting models for the firms evaluate the probability of default based upon the accounting data from book values, they cannot reflect the changes in markets sensitively and they seem to lack theoretical background. The market-information based models, however, not only make use of market data for the default prediction, but also have strong theoretical background like Black-Scholes (1973) option theory. So, many firms recently use such market based model as KMV to forecast their default probabilities and to manage their credit risks. Korean firms also widely use the KMV model in which default point is defined by liquid debt plus 50% of fixed debt. Since the debt structures between Korean and American firms are significantly different, Korean firms should carefully use KMV model. In this study, we empirically investigate the importance of debt structure. In particular, we find the following facts: First, in Korea, fixed debts are more important than liquid debts in accurate prediction of default. Second, the percentage of fixed debt must be less than 20% when default point is calculated for Korean firms, which is different from the KMV. These facts give Korean firms some valuable implication about default forecasting and management of credit risk.

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Estimation of Residual Useful Life and Tracking of Real-time Damage Paths of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters Using Stochastic Wiener Process (추계학적 위너 확률과정을 이용한 경사제의 실시간 피해경로 추적과 잔류수명 추정)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.147-160
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    • 2020
  • A stochastic probabilistic model for harbor structures such as rubble-mound breakwater has been formulated by using the generalized Wiener process considering the nonlinearity of damage drift and its nonlinear uncertainty, by which the damage path with real-time can be tracked, the residual useful lifetime at some age can also be analyzed properly. The formulated stochastic model can easily calculate the probability of failure with the passage of time through the probability density function of cumulative damage. In particular, the probability density functions of residual useful lifetime of the existing harbor structures can be derived, which can take into account the current age, its present damage state and the future damage process to be occurred. By using the maximum likelihood method and the least square method together, the involved parameters in the stochastic model can be estimated. In the calibration of the stochastic model presented in this paper, the present results are very well similar with the results of MCS about tracking of the damage paths as well as evaluating of the density functions of the cumulative damage and the residual useful lifetime. MTTF and MRL are also evaluated exactly. Meanwhile, the stochastic probabilistic model has been applied to the rubble-mound breakwater. The related parameters can be estimated by using the experimental data of the cumulative damages of armor units measured as a function of time. The theoretical results about the probability density function of cumulative damage and the probability of failure are very well agreed with MCS results such that the density functions of the cumulative damage tend to move to rightward and the amounts of its uncertainty are increased as the elapsed time goes on. Thus, the probabilities of failure with the elapsed time are also increased sharply. Finally, the behaviors of residual useful lifetime have been investigated with the elapsed age. It is concluded for rubble-mound breakwaters that the probability density functions of residual useful lifetime tends to have a longer tail in the right side rather than the left side because of the gradual increases of cumulative damage of armor units. Therefore, its MRLs are sharply decreased after some age. In this paper, the special attentions are paid to the relationship of MTTF and MRL and the elapsed age of the existing structure. In spite of that the sum of the elapsed age and MRL must be equal to MTTF deterministically, the large difference has been shown as the elapsed age is increased which is due to the uncertainty of cumulative damage to be occurred in the future.

The Effect of Objective and Subjective Social Isolation and Interpersonal Conflict Type on the Probability of Cognitive Impairment by Age Group in Old Age (노년기 연령집단별 객관적·주관적 사회적 고립과 대인관계갈등 유형이 인지기능에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Sang Chul
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.811-835
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    • 2018
  • Social relations and cognitive function in old age are closely related to each other, and social relation is classified into structural characteristics and qualitative characteristics reflecting cognitive and emotional evaluation. The concept of social isolation is the focus of attention in relation to the social relations of old age. Social isolation has a multidimensional theoretical structure that is divided into objective dimension such as social network, type of furniture, social participation, and subjective dimension such as lack of perceived social support and loneliness. There is also a close relationship between cognitive function and interpersonal conflict in old age. In this study, we examined the effect of subjective social isolation, which shows the structural characteristics of social relations, and subjective social isolation and interpersonal conflict on the dementia occurrence by age group in the elderly. The data were analyzed by applying a random effect panel logit model using 1,740 panel data from the first year to the third year of KSHAP. The results of the analysis are summarized as follows. First, the cognitive impairment increased sharply with age. Objective and subjective social isolation were both U-shaped distribution with an inflection point of 80 years old. Second, the main effect on the probability of cognitive impairment was statistically significant with objective and subjective social isolation, but the type of interpersonal conflict did not appear to be significant. Third, the results of two-way interaction effect analysis on the probability of cognitive impairment are as follows. The relationship between subjective social isolation and the probability of occurrence of cognitive impairment was significantly different according to the level of conflict with spouse. In addition, the higher the subjective social isolation, the higher the probability of cognitive impairment in the elderly(over 85) than in the young-old(65~74). In addition, as the level of conflict with spouses increases, the probability of cognitive impairment of the oldest-old(aged 85 or older) is drastically lower than that of the young-old(aged 65~74). Based on the results of this study, policy and practical implications for reducing the cognitive impairment of the elderly age group were suggested, and limitations of the study and suggestions for future research were discussed.

A Point Rainfal1 Model and Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Analysis (점 강우모형과 강우강도-지속기간-생기빈도 해석)

  • Yu, Cheol-Sang;Kim, Nam-Won;Jeong, Gwang-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.577-586
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    • 2001
  • This study proposes a theoretical methodology for deriving a rainfall intensity-duration- frequency (I-D-F) curve using a simple rectangular pulses Poisson process model. As the I-D-F curve derived by considering the model structure is dependent on the rainfall model parameters estimated using the observed first and second order statistics, it becomes less sensitive to the unusual rainfall events than that derided using the annual maxima rainfall series. This study has been applied to the rainfall data at Seoul and Inchon stations to check its applicability by comparing the two I-D-F carves from the model and the data. The results obtained are as followed. (1) As the duration becomes longer, the overlap probability increases significantly. However, its contribution to the rainfall intensity decreases a little. (2) When considering the overlap of each rainfall event, especially for large duration and return period, we could see obvious increases of rainfall intensity. This result is normal as the rainfall intensity is calculated by considering both the overlap probability and return period. Also, the overlap effect for Seoul station is fecund much higher than that for Inchon station, which is mainly due to the different overlap probabilities calculated using different rainfall model parameter sets. (3) As the rectangular pulses Poisson processes model used in this study cannot consider the clustering characteristics of rainfall, the derived I-D-F curves show less rainfall intensities than those from the annual maxima series. However, overall pattern of both I-D-F curves are found very similar, and the difference is believed to be overcome by use of a rainfall model with the clustering consideration.

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Spatial dispersion of aggregate in concrete a computer simulation study

  • Hu, Jing;Chen, Huisu;Stroeven, Piet
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.3 no.5
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    • pp.301-312
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    • 2006
  • Experimental research revealed that the spatial dispersion of aggregate grains exerts pronounced influences on the mechanical and durability properties of concrete. Therefore, insight into this phenomenon is of paramount importance. Experimental approaches do not provide direct access to three-dimensional spacing information in concrete, however. Contrarily, simulation approaches are mostly deficient in generating packing systems of aggregate grains with sufficient density. This paper therefore employs a dynamic simulation system (with the acronym SPACE), allowing the generation of dense random packing of grains, representative for concrete aggregates. This paper studies by means of SPACE packing structures of aggregates with a Fuller type of size distribution, generally accepted as a suitable approximation for actual aggregate systems. Mean free spacing $\bar{\lambda}$, mean nearest neighbour distance (NND) between grain centres $\bar{\Delta}_3$, and the probability density function of ${\Delta}_3$ are used to characterize the spatial dispersion of aggregate grains in model concretes. Influences on these spacing parameters are studied of volume fraction and the size range of aggregate grains. The values of these descriptors are estimated by means of stereological tools, whereupon the calculation results are compared with measurements. The simulation results indicate that the size range of aggregate grains has a more pronounced influence on the spacing parameters than exerted by the volume fraction of aggregate. At relatively high volume density of aggregates, as met in the present cases, theoretical and experimental values are found quite similar. The mean free spacing is known to be independent of the actual dispersion characteristics (Underwood 1968); it is a structural parameter governed by material composition. Moreover, scatter of the mean free spacing among the serial sections of the model concrete in the simulation study is relatively small, demonstrating the sample size to be representative for composition homogeneity of aggregate grains. The distribution of ${\Delta}_3$ observed in this study is markedly skew, indicating a concentration of relatively small values of ${\Delta}_3$. The estimate of the size of the representative volume element (RVE) for configuration homogeneity based on NND exceeds by one order of magnitude the estimate for structure-insensitive properties. This is in accordance with predictions of Brown (1965) for composition and configuration homogeneity (corresponding to structure-insensitive and structure-sensitive properties) of conglomerates.

From Complexity to Hybridity: Transformative Combinations of Different Programs in Stadium Architecture

  • Shin, Yoon Jeong;Baek, Jin
    • Architectural research
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.59-67
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    • 2019
  • Although many stadiums around the world have incorporated various profitable facilities, many are making conventional and cursory decisions without deep consideration of the interrelationships of different programs. This paper investigates cases in which new programs such as a hotel, a youth hostel, and a dormitory have been introduced into stadiums, showing different results. In the first part of this paper, the theoretical precedents of program combination are studied. Although Bernard Tschumi's notion of the combination of different programs presented its prophetic probability, this paper discern different approaches addressing program mixture, engendering eventually a productive modification of his notion based on the empirical observation of the cases. This paper classifies the manner of programmatic combination into complexity and hybridity, arguing that the latter transforms the spaces and gives rise to unexpected synergy, while the former merely assembles different programs. The second part compares the spaces of complexity and hybridity in stadiums. Through the plan and the section analysis of the spatial structure and the interrelationship of programs, this section reveals how the two different ways of the program combinations have had different results. In hybrid stadiums, programs are not simply gathered, but directly connected and intertwined. In the third part, the nature of the spatial transformation in the hybrid space is researched in detail. In the hybrid stadiums, the collision of the different programs changes the conception of the programs themselves and their related spaces. Hotels and stadiums are not what they once were, provoking unanticipated situations. These transformed spaces not only suggest a method of reutilizing of disused urban spaces, but also of meaningful and communicative program mixture, diversifying and vitalizing a city, not isolated islands of discrepancy. The ultimate purpose of this paper is clarifying the programmatic hybrid paradigm, surpassing complexity through the analysis of the stadium cases and illuminating the manner by which the hybridity breaks the typical tie between the program and space, to cause transformed situations.