• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability analysis

Search Result 5,182, Processing Time 0.034 seconds

Characteristics of the Graded Wildlife Dose Assessment Code K-BIOTA and Its Application (단계적 야생동식물 선량평가 코드 K-BIOTA의 특성 및 적용)

  • Keum, Dong-Kwon;Jun, In;Lim, Kwang-Muk;Kim, Byeong-Ho;Choi, Yong-Ho
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
    • /
    • v.40 no.4
    • /
    • pp.252-260
    • /
    • 2015
  • This paper describes the technical background for the Korean wildlife radiation dose assessment code, K-BIOTA, and the summary of its application. The K-BIOTA applies the graded approaches of 3 levels including the screening assessment (Level 1 & 2), and the detailed assessment based on the site specific data (Level 3). The screening level assessment is a preliminary step to determine whether the detailed assessment is needed, and calculates the dose rate for the grouped organisms, rather than an individual biota. In the Level 1 assessment, the risk quotient (RQ) is calculated by comparing the actual media concentration with the environmental media concentration limit (EMCL) derived from a bench-mark screening reference dose rate. If RQ for the Level 1 assessment is less than 1, it can be determined that the ecosystem would maintain its integrity, and the assessment is terminated. If the RQ is greater than 1, the Level 2 assessment, which calculates RQ using the average value of the concentration ratio (CR) and equilibrium distribution coefficient (Kd) for the grouped organisms, is carried out for the more realistic assessment. Thus, the Level 2 assessment is less conservative than the Level 1 assessment. If RQ for the Level 2 assessment is less than 1, it can be determined that the ecosystem would maintain its integrity, and the assessment is terminated. If the RQ is greater than 1, the Level 3 assessment is performed for the detailed assessment. In the Level 3 assessment, the radiation dose for the representative organism of a site is calculated by using the site specific data of occupancy factor, CR and Kd. In addition, the K-BIOTA allows the uncertainty analysis of the dose rate on CR, Kd and environmental medium concentration among input parameters optionally in the Level 3 assessment. The four probability density functions of normal, lognormal, uniform and exponential distribution can be applied.The applicability of the code was tested through the participation of IAEA EMRAS II (Environmental Modeling for Radiation Safety) for the comparison study of environmental models comparison, and as the result, it was proved that the K-BIOTA would be very useful to assess the radiation risk of the wildlife living in the various contaminated environment.

Change Detection of land-surface Environment in Gongju Areas Using Spatial Relationships between Land-surface Change and Geo-spatial Information (지표변화와 지리공간정보의 연관성 분석을 통한 공주지역 지표환경 변화 분석)

  • Jang Dong-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
    • /
    • v.40 no.3 s.108
    • /
    • pp.296-309
    • /
    • 2005
  • In this study, we investigated the change of future land-surface and relationships of land-surface change with geo-spatial information, using a Bayesian prediction model based on a likelihood ratio function, for analysing the land-surface change of the Gongju area. We classified the land-surface satellite images, and then extracted the changing area using a way of post classification comparison. land-surface information related to the land-surface change is constructed in a GIS environment, and the map of land-surface change prediction is made using the likelihood ratio function. As the results of this study, the thematic maps which definitely influence land-surface change of rural or urban areas are elevation, water system, population density, roads, population moving, the number of establishments, land price, etc. Also, thematic maps which definitely influence the land-surface change of forests areas are elevation, slope, population density, population moving, land price, etc. As a result of land-surface change analysis, center proliferation of old and new downtown is composed near Gum-river, and the downtown area will spread around the local roads and interchange areas in the urban area. In case of agricultural areas, a small tributary of Gum-river or an area of local roads which are attached with adjacent areas showed the high probability of change. Most of the forest areas are located in southeast and from this result we can guess why the wide chestnut-tree cultivation complex is located in these areas and the capability of forest damage is very high. As a result of validation using a prediction rate curve, a capability of prediction of urban area is $80\%$, agriculture area is $55\%$, forest area is $40\%$ in higher $10\%$ of possibility which the land-surface change would occur. This integration model is unsatisfactory to Predict the forest area in the study area and thus as a future work, it is necessary to apply new thematic maps or prediction models In conclusion, we can expect that this way can be one of the most essential land-surface change studies in a few years.

Effects of Private Insurance on Medical Expenditure (민간의료보험 가입이 의료이용에 미치는 영향)

  • Yun, Hee Suk
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.30 no.2
    • /
    • pp.99-128
    • /
    • 2008
  • Nearly all Koreans are insured through National Health Insurance(NHI). While NHI coverage is nearly universal, it is not complete. Coverage is largely limited to minimal level of hospital and physician expenses, and copayments are required in each case. As a result, Korea's public insurance system covers roughly 50% of overall individual health expenditures, and the remaining 50% consists of copayments for basic services, spending on services that are either not covered or poorly covered by the public system. In response to these gaps in the public system, 64% of the Korean population has supplemental private health insurance. Expansion of private health insurance raises negative externality issue. Like public financing schemes in other countries, the Korean system imposes cost-sharing on patients as a strategy for controlling utilization. Because most insurance policies reimburse patients for their out-of-pocket payments, supplemental insurance is likely to negate the impact of the policy, raising both total and public sector health spending. So far, most empirical analysis of supplemental health insurance to date has focused on the US Medigap programme. It is found that those with supplements apparently consume more health care. Two reasons for higher health care consumption by those with supplements suggest themselves. One is the moral hazard effect: by eliminating copayments and deductibles, supplements reduce the marginal price of care and induce additional consumption. The other explanation is that supplements are purchased by those who anticipate high health expenditures - adverse effect. The main issue addressed has been the separation of the moral hazard effect from the adverse selection one. The general conclusion is that the evidence on adverse selection based on observable variables is mixed. This article investigates the extent to which private supplementary insurance affect use of health care services by public health insurance enrollees, using Korean administrative data and private supplements related data collected through all relevant private insurance companies. I applied a multivariate two-part model to analyze the effects of various types of supplements on the likelihood and level of public health insurance spending and estimated marginal effects of supplements. Separate models were estimated for inpatients and outpatients in public insurance spending. The first part of the model estimated the likelihood of positive spending using probit regression, and the second part estimated the log of spending for those with positive spending. Use of a detailed information of individuals' public health insurance from administration data and of private insurance status from insurance companies made it possible to control for health status, the types of supplemental insurance owned by theses individuals, and other factors that explain spending variations across supplemental insurance categories in isolating the effects of supplemental insurance. Data from 2004 to 2006 were used, and this study found that private insurance increased the probability of a physician visit by less than 1 percent and a hospital admission by about 1 percent. However, supplemental insurance was not found to be associated with a bigger health care service utilization. Two-part models of health care utilization and expenditures showed that those without supplemental insurance had higher inpatient and outpatient expenditures than those with supplements, even after controlling for observable differences.

  • PDF

Management Planning and Change for Nineteen Years(1993~2011) of Plant Community of the Pinus densiflora S. et Z. Forest in Namhan Mountain Fortress, Korea (남한산성 소나무림의 19년간(1993~2011년) 식생구조 변화와 관리방안)

  • Lee, Kyong-Jae;Han, Bong-Ho;Lee, Hak-Gi;Noh, Tai-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
    • /
    • v.26 no.4
    • /
    • pp.559-575
    • /
    • 2012
  • This study, targeting Namhan Mountain Fortress which was designated as a No. 57 national historic site and placed on the World Heritage Tentative List in 2010, was intended to identify the change of vegetation structures by reviewing past references, pictures, research data and additionally conducting a site survey. Also, it was designed to draw up measures for restoring vegetation suitable for historically and culturally valuable Namhan Mountain Fortress. According to the biotope mapping of study site, Quercus spp. forest distributed a greatest part of area with 40.8% of $2,611,823m^2$. Pinus densiflora forest, highly likely to go through ecological succession, was dispersed in the whole region of Cheongryangsan, the area from West Gate to North Gate and the ranges between South Gate to Cheongryangsan with taking 16.5%. Pinus densiflora forest with a low probability of succession amounted to 4.7% and was dispersed mainly in the forest behind Namhansan elementary school. Pinus densiflora going on the ecological succession is distributed a portion of 2.9%. And the currently dying out Pinus densiflora forest amounted to 2.1%. As a result of analysis of the vegetation structure for 19 years, the succession from Pinus densiflora forest to Pinus densiflora and succession from Quercus spp. mixed forest to Quercus spp. forest to Carpinus laxiflora forest were predicted. Additionally, Quercus spp. expanded its dominance over time. According to the characteristics of each classified zone, the site was categorized into $553,508m^2$ area of Pinus densiflora forest area for the landscape maintenance, $114,293m^2$ area of Pinus densiflora forest area for the landscape restoration, $205,306m^2$ area of Pinus densiflora forest area for the disclimax, and $1,169,973m^2$ area of Pinus densiflora forest area for inducing ecological succession.

The Role of MnSOD in the Mechanisms of Acquired Resistance to TNF (TNF에 대한 내성획득에서 MnSOD의 역할에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyuk-Pyo;Yoo, Chul-Gyu;Kim, Young-Whan;Han, Sung-Koo;Shim, Young-Soo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
    • /
    • v.44 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1353-1365
    • /
    • 1997
  • Background : Tumor necrosis factor(TNF) has been considered as an important candidate for cancer gene therapy based on its potent anti-tumor activity. However, since the efficiency of current techniques of gene transfer is not satisfactory, the majority of current protocols is aiming the in vitro gene transfer to cancer cells and re-introducing genetically modified cancer cells to host. In the previous study, it was shown that TNF-sensitive cancer cells transfected with TNF-$\alpha$ cDNA would become highly resistant to TNF, and the probability was shown that the acquired resistance to TNF might be associated with synthesis of some protective protein. Understanding the mechanisms of TNF -resistance in TNF-$\alpha$ cDNA transfected cancer cells would be. an important step for improving the efficacy of cancer gene therapy as well as for better understandings of tumor biology. This study was designed to evaluate the role of MnSOD, an antioxidant enzyme, in the acquired resistance to TNF of TNF-$\alpha$ cDN A transfected cancer cells. Method : We transfected TNF-$\alpha$ c-DNA to WEHI164(murine fibrosarcoma cell line), NCI-H2058(human mesothelioma cell line), A549(human non-small cell lung cancer cell line), ME180(human cervix cancer cell line) cells using retroviral vector(pLT12SN(TNF)) and confirm the expression of TNF with PCR, ELISA, MIT assay. Then we determined the TNF resistance of TNF-$\alpha$ cDNA transfected cells(WEHI164-TNF, NCIH2058-TNF, A549-TNF, ME180-TNF) and the changes of MnSOD mRNA expressions with Northern blot analysis. Results : The MnSOD mRNA expressions of parental cells and genetically modified cells of WEHI164 and ME180 cells(both are naturally TNF sensitive) were not significantly different The MnSOD mRNA expressions of genetically modified cells of NCI-H2058 and A549(both are naturally TNF resistant) were higher than those of the parental cells, while those of parental cells with exogenous TNF were also elevated. Conclusion : The acquired resistance to TNF after TNF-$\alpha$ cDNA transfection may not be associated with the change in the MnSOD expression, but the difference in natural TNF sensitivity of each cell may be associated with the level of the MnSOD expression.

  • PDF

The NCAM Land-Atmosphere Modeling Package (LAMP) Version 1: Implementation and Evaluation (국가농림기상센터 지면대기모델링패키지(NCAM-LAMP) 버전 1: 구축 및 평가)

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Song, Jiae;Kim, Yu-Jung
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.18 no.4
    • /
    • pp.307-319
    • /
    • 2016
  • A Land-Atmosphere Modeling Package (LAMP) for supporting agricultural and forest management was developed at the National Center for AgroMeteorology (NCAM). The package is comprised of two components; one is the Weather Research and Forecasting modeling system (WRF) coupled with Noah-Multiparameterization options (Noah-MP) Land Surface Model (LSM) and the other is an offline one-dimensional LSM. The objective of this paper is to briefly describe the two components of the NCAM-LAMP and to evaluate their initial performance. The coupled WRF/Noah-MP system is configured with a parent domain over East Asia and three nested domains with a finest horizontal grid size of 810 m. The innermost domain covers two Gwangneung deciduous and coniferous KoFlux sites (GDK and GCK). The model is integrated for about 8 days with the initial and boundary conditions taken from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final Analysis (FNL) data. The verification variables are 2-m air temperature, 10-m wind, 2-m humidity, and surface precipitation for the WRF/Noah-MP coupled system. Skill scores are calculated for each domain and two dynamic vegetation options using the difference between the observed data from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and the simulated data from the WRF/Noah-MP coupled system. The accuracy of precipitation simulation is examined using a contingency table that is made up of the Probability of Detection (POD) and the Equitable Threat Score (ETS). The standalone LSM simulation is conducted for one year with the original settings and is compared with the KoFlux site observation for net radiation, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and soil moisture variables. According to results, the innermost domain (810 m resolution) among all domains showed the minimum root mean square error for 2-m air temperature, 10-m wind, and 2-m humidity. Turning on the dynamic vegetation had a tendency of reducing 10-m wind simulation errors in all domains. The first nested domain (7,290 m resolution) showed the highest precipitation score, but showed little advantage compared with using the dynamic vegetation. On the other hand, the offline one-dimensional Noah-MP LSM simulation captured the site observed pattern and magnitude of radiative fluxes and soil moisture, and it left room for further improvement through supplementing the model input of leaf area index and finding a proper combination of model physics.

Underpricing of Initial Offerings and the Efficiency of Investments (신주(新株)의 저가상장현상(低價上場現象)과 투자(投資)의 효율성(效率成)에 대한 연구(硏究))

  • Nam, Il-chong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.12 no.2
    • /
    • pp.95-120
    • /
    • 1990
  • The underpricing of new shares of a firm that are offered to the public for the first time (initial offerings) is well known and has puzzled financial economists for a long time since it seems at odds with the optimal behavior of the owners of issuing firms. Past attempts by financial economists to explain this phenomenon have not been successful in the sense that the explanations given by them are either inconsistent with the equilibrium theory or implausible. Approaches by such authors as Welch or Allen and Faulhaber are no exceptions. In this paper, we develop a signalling model of capital investment to explain the underpricing phenomenon and also analyze the efficiency of investment. The model focuses on the information asymmetry between the owners of issuing firms and general investors. We consider a firm that has been owned and operated by a single owner and that has a profitable project but has no capital to develop it. The profit from the project depends on the capital invested in the project as well as a profitability parameter. The model also assumes that the financial market is represented by a single investor who maximizes the expected wealth. The owner has superior information as to the value of the firm to investors in the sense that it knows the true value of the parameter while investors have only a probability distribution about the parameter. The owner offers the representative investor a fraction of the ownership of the firm in return for a certain amount of investment in the firm. This offer condition is equivalent to the usual offer condition consisting of the number of issues to sell and the unit price of a share. Thus, the model is a signalling game. Using Kreps' criterion as the solution concept, we obtained an essentially unique separating equilibrium offer condition. Analysis of this separating equilibrium shows that the owner of the firm with high profitability chooses an offer condition that raises an amount of capital that is short of the amount that maximizes the potential profit from the project. It also reveals that the fraction of the ownership of the firm that the representative investor receives from the owner of the highly profitable firm in return for its investment has a value that exceeds the investment. In other words, the initial offering in the model is underpriced when the profitability of the firm is high. The source of underpricing and underinvestment is the signalling activity by the owner of the highly profitable firm who attempts to convince investors that his firm has a highly profitable project by choosing an offer condition that cannot be imitated by the owner of a firm with low profitability. Thus, we obtained two main results. First, underpricing is a result of a signalling activity by the owner of a firm with high profitability when there exists information asymmetry between the owner of the issuing firm and investors. Second, such information asymmetry also leads to underinvestment in a highly profitable project. Those results clearly show the underpricing entails underinvestment and that information asymmetry leads to a social cost as well as a private cost. The above results are quite general in the sense that they are based upon a neoclassical profit function and full rationality of economic agents. We believe that the results of this paper can be used as a basis for further research on the capital investment process. For instance, one can view the results of this paper as a subgame equilibrium in a larger game in which a firm chooses among diverse ways to raise capital. In addition, the method used in this paper can be used in analyzing a wide range of problems arising from information asymmetry that the Korean financial market faces.

  • PDF

Object Tracking Based on Exactly Reweighted Online Total-Error-Rate Minimization (정확히 재가중되는 온라인 전체 에러율 최소화 기반의 객체 추적)

  • JANG, Se-In;PARK, Choong-Shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.25 no.4
    • /
    • pp.53-65
    • /
    • 2019
  • Object tracking is one of important steps to achieve video-based surveillance systems. Object tracking is considered as an essential task similar to object detection and recognition. In order to perform object tracking, various machine learning methods (e.g., least-squares, perceptron and support vector machine) can be applied for different designs of tracking systems. In general, generative methods (e.g., principal component analysis) were utilized due to its simplicity and effectiveness. However, the generative methods were only focused on modeling the target object. Due to this limitation, discriminative methods (e.g., binary classification) were adopted to distinguish the target object and the background. Among the machine learning methods for binary classification, total error rate minimization can be used as one of successful machine learning methods for binary classification. The total error rate minimization can achieve a global minimum due to a quadratic approximation to a step function while other methods (e.g., support vector machine) seek local minima using nonlinear functions (e.g., hinge loss function). Due to this quadratic approximation, the total error rate minimization could obtain appropriate properties in solving optimization problems for binary classification. However, this total error rate minimization was based on a batch mode setting. The batch mode setting can be limited to several applications under offline learning. Due to limited computing resources, offline learning could not handle large scale data sets. Compared to offline learning, online learning can update its solution without storing all training samples in learning process. Due to increment of large scale data sets, online learning becomes one of essential properties for various applications. Since object tracking needs to handle data samples in real time, online learning based total error rate minimization methods are necessary to efficiently address object tracking problems. Due to the need of the online learning, an online learning based total error rate minimization method was developed. However, an approximately reweighted technique was developed. Although the approximation technique is utilized, this online version of the total error rate minimization could achieve good performances in biometric applications. However, this method is assumed that the total error rate minimization can be asymptotically achieved when only the number of training samples is infinite. Although there is the assumption to achieve the total error rate minimization, the approximation issue can continuously accumulate learning errors according to increment of training samples. Due to this reason, the approximated online learning solution can then lead a wrong solution. The wrong solution can make significant errors when it is applied to surveillance systems. In this paper, we propose an exactly reweighted technique to recursively update the solution of the total error rate minimization in online learning manner. Compared to the approximately reweighted online total error rate minimization, an exactly reweighted online total error rate minimization is achieved. The proposed exact online learning method based on the total error rate minimization is then applied to object tracking problems. In our object tracking system, particle filtering is adopted. In particle filtering, our observation model is consisted of both generative and discriminative methods to leverage the advantages between generative and discriminative properties. In our experiments, our proposed object tracking system achieves promising performances on 8 public video sequences over competing object tracking systems. The paired t-test is also reported to evaluate its quality of the results. Our proposed online learning method can be extended under the deep learning architecture which can cover the shallow and deep networks. Moreover, online learning methods, that need the exact reweighting process, can use our proposed reweighting technique. In addition to object tracking, the proposed online learning method can be easily applied to object detection and recognition. Therefore, our proposed methods can contribute to online learning community and object tracking, detection and recognition communities.

Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting in Elderly Patients Older Than 75 Years (75세 이상 고령환자의 관상동맥우회로술)

  • Yoo Dong Gon;Kim Chong Wook;Park Chong Bin;Choo Suk Jung;Lee Jae Won;Song Meong Gun;Song Hyun
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
    • /
    • v.38 no.2 s.247
    • /
    • pp.123-131
    • /
    • 2005
  • Background: The number of elderly patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is increasing. Elderly patients are at increased risk for a variety of perioperative complications and mortality. We identified determinants of operative complications and mortality in elderly patients undergoing CABG. Material and Method: Between January 1995 and July 2003, 91 patients older than 75 years underwent isolated CABG at Asan Medical Center. There were 67 men and 24 women with mean age of $77.0\pm2.4$ years. Thirty clinical or hemodynamic variables hypothesized as predictors of operative mortality were evaluated. Result: CABG was performed under emergency conditions in 5 patients. The internal thoracic artery was used in 85 patients and 10 patients received both internal thoracic arteries. The mean number of distal anastomosis was 3.7 per patient. Operative mortality was $3.3\%$. Twenty-two patients had at least one major postoperative complication. Low cardiac output syndrome was the most common complication, followed by reoperation for bleeding, pulmonary dysfunction, perioperative myocardial infarction, stroke, acute renal failure, ventricular arrhythmia, upper gastrointestinal bleeding, infection, and delayed sternal closure. None were the predictors of mortality. Renal failure, peripheral vascular disease, emergency operation, recent myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, New York Heart Association (HYHA) class III or IV, Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS) angina scale III or IV, and low left ventricle ejection fraction below $40\%$ were univariate predictors of overall complications. Actuarial probability of survival was $94.9\%,\;89.8\%,\;and\;83.5\%$ at postoperative 1, 3 and 5 years respectively. During the follow-up period $93.3\%$ of patients were in NYHA class I, or II and $91.1\%$ were free from angina. Conclusion: Although operative complication is increased, CABG can be performed with an acceptable operative mortality and excellent late results in patients older than 75 years.

Preferential Flow as Tested by Breakthrough Curves of Cl- and Cu2+ from Saturated Undisturbed Soil Core Samples under Steady Flow Conditions (포화 불교란 토양시료의 Cl- 및 Cu2+ 출현곡선에 의한 preferential flow의 검증)

  • Yoo, Sun-Ho;Han, Kyung-Hwa;Ro, Hee-Myong;Han, Gwang-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
    • /
    • v.33 no.2
    • /
    • pp.71-78
    • /
    • 2000
  • Preferential flow has recently been the subject of increasing interest because these phenomena contribute to solute transport in soils. Commonly, preferential flow paths are associated with macropores or highly structured soils. We presented an analysis of the measured breakthrough curves (BTCs) of $Cl^-$ and $Cu^{2+}$ ions to test the occurrence of preferential flow in soils using miscible displacement technique under steady flow conditions. We also analyzed soil water retention curves and from this curves induced cumulative pore size distribution of undisturbed soils, which sampled from Ap1, B1, and C horizons of Songjeong series soils (the fine loamy, mesic family of Typic Hapludults). In this study, miscible displacement experiment on C horizon was excluded, because it is structureless sandy loam with saturated hydraulic conductivity of $5.2cmhr^{-1}$. The saturated hydraulic conductivity of Ap1 horizon was $2.0cmhr^{-1}$, which was about 7 times higher than that of B1 horizon ($0.27cm hr^{-1}$). Cumulative pore size distribution predicted that Ap1 horizon had more macropores (pore diameter larger than $49{\mu}m$, equivalent to -6 kpa of soil matric potential) than B1 horizon. The hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient from chloride BTCs was estimated as $1.3cm^2hr^{-1}$ for B1 and $34cm^2hr^{-1}$ for Ap1 horizon. However the retardation factors of B1 and Ap1 horizon were significantly different, i.e. 1 and 0.6, respectively, which means that there was distinct partition between mobile water and immobile phase in Ap1 horizon. The copper retardation effect of Ap1 horizon was less than that of B1 horizon, even though cation exchange capacity of Ap1 horizon was higher than that of B1 horizon. Thus, breakthrough curves of $Cl^-$ and $Cu^{2+}$ obviously showed the probability that preferential flow would occur in Ap1 horizon.

  • PDF