• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability analysis

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Assessment of Carotid Geometry by Using the Contrast-enhanced MR Angiography (조영증강 MR 혈관 조영술을 이용한 경동맥 기하학의 평가)

  • Lee, Chung-Min;Ryu, Chang-Woo;Kim, Keun-Woo
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.47-55
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    • 2010
  • Purpose : To evaluate the geometry of carotid artery by assessing the images of contrast-enhanced MR angiography (CE-MRA) and interrelationships between the geometry of carotid artery and clinical factors. Materials and Methods : 216 consecutive patients who performed supraaortic CE-MRA with fast spoiled gradient-echo imaging were included. Their medical records were reviewed for variable information including risk factors predictive of generalized atherosclerotic disease (age, hypertension (HTN), diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidema, and smoking), sex, body weight, height, and body mass index (BMI). We reviewed the CE-MRA with carotid origin (3 types), carotid artery tortuosity, angle of internal carotid artery bifurcation, the type of aortic arch branching, and the presence of the coiling of carotid artery. Results : Multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that significantly contributed clinical backgrounds for carotid origin were the age and the BMI. With an increase of age at 1, the probability that the type of carotid origin become from type 1 to type 2 was 0.9 times (p=0.004) in right carotid artery (RCA), 0.9 times (p = 0.031) in left carotid artery (LCA), 0.9 times that are likely to be type3 from type 2 (p<0.001) in RCA and 0.9 times in LCA (p=0.009). Increase in BMI at 1 increased odds of becoming type 2 as 1.1 times (p = 0.067) in RCA, 1.1 times (p=0.009) in LCA and increased chance of becoming type 3 as 1.2 times (p = 0.001) in RCA, 1.2 times (p=0.003) in LCA. Mean value of right and left carotid tortuosity were $240.9{\pm}69.0^{\circ}$and $154.4{\pm}55.0^{\circ}$, respectively. Conclusion : The BMI, age, sex and presence of HTN affects the geometry of carotid arteries, the site of origin and tortuosity of carotid artery specifically.

Agroclimatic Zone and Characters of the Area Subject to Climatic Disaster in Korea (농업 기후 지대 구분과 기상 재해 특성)

  • 최돈향;윤성호
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.34 no.s02
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    • pp.13-33
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    • 1989
  • Agroclimate should be analyzed and evaluated accurately to make better use of available chimatic resources for the establishment of optimum cropping systems. Introducing of appropriate cultivars and their cultivation techniques into classified agroclimatic zone could contribute to the stability and costs of crop production. To classify the agroclimatic zones, such climatic factors as temperature, precipitation, sunshine, humidity and wind were considered as major influencing factors on the crop growth and yield. For the classification of rice agroclimatic zones, precipitation and drought index during transplanting time, the first occurrence of effective growth temperature (above 15$^{\circ}C$) and its duration, the probability of low temperature occurrence, variation in temperature and sunshine hours, and climatic productivity index were used in the analysis. The agroclimatic zones for rice crop were classified into 19 zones as follows; (1) Taebaek Alpine Zone, (2) Taebaek Semi-Alpine Zone, (3) Sobaek Mountainous Zone, (4) Noryeong Sobaek Mountainous Zone, (5) Yeongnam Inland Mountainous Zone, (6) Northern Central Inland Zone, (7) Central Inland Zone, (8) Western Soebaek Inland Zone, (9) Noryeong Eastern and Western Inland Zone, (10) Honam Inland Zone, (ll) Yeongnam Basin Zone, (12) Yeongnam Inland Zone, (13) Western Central Plain Zone, (14) Southern Charyeong Plain Zone, (15) South Western Coastal Zone, (16) Southern Coastal Zone, (17) Northern Eastern Coastal Zone, (18) Central Eastern Coastal Zone, and (19) South Eastern Coastal Zone. The classification of agroclimatic zones for cropping systems was based on the rice agroclimatic zones considering zonal climatic factors for both summer and winter crops and traditional cropping systems. The agroclimatic zones were identified for cropping systems as follows: (I) Alpine Zone, (II) Mountainous Zone, (III) Central Northern Inland Zone, (IV) Central Northern West Coastal Zone, (V) Cental Southern West Coastal Zone, (VI) Gyeongbuk Inland Zone, (VII) Southern Inland Zone, (VIII) Southern Coastal Zone, and (IX) Eastern Coastal Zone. The agroclimatic zonal characteristics of climatic disasters under rice cultivation were identified: as frequent drought zones of (11) Yeongnam Basin Zone, (17) North Eastern Coastal Zone with the frequency of low temperature occurrence below 13$^{\circ}C$ at root setting stage above 9.1%, and (2) Taebaek Semi-Alpine Zone with cold injury during reproductive stages, as the thphoon and intensive precipitation zones of (10) Hanam Inland Zone, (15) Southern West Coastal Zone, (16) Southern Coastal Zone with more than 4 times of damage in a year and with typhoon path and heavy precipitation intensity concerned. Especially the three east coastal zones, (17), (18), and (19), were subjected to wind and flood damages 2 to 3 times a year as well as subjected to drought and cold temperature injury.

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Early Bowel Complications Following Radiotherapy of Uterine Cervi)( Carcinoma (자궁경부암의 방사선치료 후 급성 장관 합병증)

  • Kim, Won-Dong
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.129-135
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    • 1999
  • Purpose : This study evaluated early bowel complications in cervix cancer patients, following external radiotherapy (ERT and high dose rate intracavitary radiation (HDR ICR). Factors affecting the risk of developing early bowel complications and its incidence are analyzed and discussed Materials and Methods : The study is the retrospective review of 66 patients who received radiotherapy at Chungbuk National University Hospital from April 1994 to December 1998. The patients underwent 41.4 or 50.4 Gy ERT according to FIGO stage and tumor size, then A point dose was boosted to 71.4 or 74.4 Gy using a remotely controlled afterloading Buchler HDR ICR. The EORTC/RTOG morbidity criteria were used to grade early bowel complications, which are valid from day 1, the commencement of therapy, through day 90. The actuarial incidence, severity of complications were investigated and clinical pretreatment factors relevant to complications were found through univariate (Wilcoxon) and multivariate (Cox proportional hazard model) analysis. Results : Of the 66 patients, 30 patients (46$\%$) developed early bowel complications; 25 patients (38$\%$) with grade 1 or 2, 4 patients (0$\%$) with grade 3 and 1 patient (2$\%$) with grade 4. The complications usually began to occur 3 weeks after the commencement of radiotherapy. The actuarial incidence of early bowel complications was 41$\%$ at 10 weeks. The early bowel complications were associated significantly with an old age and a history of previous abdomino-pelvic surgery. All three patients who had a protracted overall treatment time (about 2 weeks) due to severe bowel complication, suffered from pelvic recurrences. Conclusion : Forty six percent of patients experienced early bowel complications, most of which were grade 1 or 2 and relieved spontaneously or by medication. The patients with an old age or a previous surgery have a high probability of early complications and they may be less compliant with planned radiotherapy. So more careful precaution is necessary for these patients.

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The Significance of $^{99m}Technetium$ Dimercaptosuccinic Acid(DMSA) Scan as a Substitute for Voiding Cystourethrography(VCUG) in Evaluating Children with first Febrile Urinary Tract Infection (생애 첫 발열성 요로 감염 환아에 대한 평가에서 배뇨성 방광 요도 조영술을 대체하기 위한 검사로서 $^{99m}technetium$ dimercaptosuccinic acid(DMSA) scan의 의의)

  • Han, Seung-Beom;Ko, Yong-Min;Lee, Sue-Young;Jeong, Dae-Chul;Kang, Jin-Han;Lee, Kyung-Yeon;Uhm, Mee-Ryung;Kim, Woong-Heum;Kim, Jung-Sue
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.220-228
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    • 2007
  • Purpose : We studied the value of clinical signs, laboratory findings and $^{99m}technetium$ dime-rcaptosuccinic acid(DMSA) scan in predicting the presence of vesicoureteral reflux(VUR) in children with first febrile urinary tract infection(UTI). Methods : A retrospective analysis of 84 hospitalized children with first febrile UTI was performed. They underwent DMSA scan and voiding cystourethrography(VCUG) during the acute phase, and were divided into three groups according to the results of the VCUG: absence of VUR, mild(grade I-II) and severe VUR(grade III-V). We studied the relation of VUR to age, gender, fever duration, causative organism, white blood cell count, serum C-reactive protein and result of DMSA scan. Results : Among 84 patients, 6 had mild and 17 had severe VUR. Thirty-eight had abnormal DMSA scan. results Patients with VUR were older than those without VUR(P<0.01). There was a lower probability of infection with Escherichia coli in patients with severe VUR than in those with mild and absent VUR(P<0.01). An abnormal DMSA scan correlated with the presence and severity of VUR(P<0.05). Severe VUR was present in 10.9% of patients with normal DMSA scan. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the DMSA scan in predicting the presence of VUR were 69.6%, 63.9%, 42.1%, and 84.8%, respectively. Conclusion : An abnormal DMSA scan correlated to the presence and severity of VUR, but the sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of the DMSA scan were low. There-fore, patient with an abnormal DMSA scan requires a VCUG. In order to prevent missing the 10.9% of patients with severe VUR but normal DMSA scans, a VCUG should be performed in patient with normal DMSA scan.

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Features of sample concepts in the probability and statistics chapters of Korean mathematics textbooks of grades 1-12 (초.중.고등학교 확률과 통계 단원에 나타난 표본개념에 대한 분석)

  • Lee, Young-Ha;Shin, Sou-Yeong
    • Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.327-344
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    • 2011
  • This study is the first step for us toward improving high school students' capability of statistical inferences, such as obtaining and interpreting the confidence interval on the population mean that is currently learned in high school. We suggest 5 underlying concepts of 'discretion of contingency and inevitability', 'discretion of induction and deduction', 'likelihood principle', 'variability of a statistic' and 'statistical model', those are necessary to appreciate statistical inferences as a reliable arguing tools in spite of its occasional erroneous conclusions. We assume those 5 concepts above are to be gradually developing in their school periods and Korean mathematics textbooks of grades 1-12 were analyzed. Followings were found. For the right choice of solving methodology of the given problem, no elementary textbook but a few high school textbooks describe its difference between the contingent circumstance and the inevitable one. Formal definitions of population and sample are not introduced until high school grades, so that the developments of critical thoughts on the reliability of inductive reasoning could not be observed. On the contrary of it, strong emphasis lies on the calculation stuff of the sample data without any inference on the population prospective based upon the sample. Instead of the representative properties of a random sample, more emphasis lies on how to get a random sample. As a result of it, the fact that 'the random variability of the value of a statistic which is calculated from the sample ought to be inherited from the randomness of the sample' could neither be noticed nor be explained as well. No comparative descriptions on the statistical inferences against the mathematical(deductive) reasoning were found. Few explanations on the likelihood principle and its probabilistic applications in accordance with students' cognitive developmental growth were found. It was hard to find the explanation of a random variability of statistics and on the existence of its sampling distribution. It is worthwhile to explain it because, nevertheless obtaining the sampling distribution of a particular statistic, like a sample mean, is a very difficult job, mere noticing its existence may cause a drastic change of understanding in a statistical inference.

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Occupational Radiation Exposure to Hospital Workers: On the Effect of Hematological Change (병원 내 방사선 작업종사자의 만성적 방사선 피폭에 의한 혈액학적 성분 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Jae-Kwang;Jung, Woo-Young;Shin, Sang-Ki;Cho, Shee-Man;Dong, Kyung-Rae;Kim, Hyun-Soo
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.157-170
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: This prospective study was conducted to reveal the haematological index change by low level radiation exposure in radiological environment our hospital workers. Materials and Method: We gathered the cumulative dose by Thermoluminenscent Dosimeters (TLD) over 9-yr period and examined hematological index counts change (RBC, Hb, Platelet, WBC, Monocyte, Lymphocyte, Neutrophilic, Basophilic, Eosinophilic) both occupational workers and controls. Of a total 370 occupational workers and 335 controls were compared. Results: This analysis has led to the following general observations 1) The average cumulative dose in male and female were $9.65{\pm}15.2\;mSv$, $4.82{\pm}5.55\;mSv$ respectively. 2) In both male and female, there were very low relationship between occupation period and cumulative dose (r< ${\pm}0.25$). 3) Occupation period was more increased, in male, WBC counts decreased and increased workers, RBC counts decreased workers were more than controls group (p<0.05). In female, WBC counts decreased and increased workers and W-eosino counts decreased workers were more than controls group (p<0.01). 4) Cumulative dose was more increased, in male, W-Lympho counts decreased workers and Platelet counts deceased workers were more than controls group (p<0.05). In female, W-lympho counts decreased workers and RBC counts decreased workers were more than controls group (p<0.05). Conclusions: We can find some kinds of blood index abnormal distribution in occupational radiation workers by comparing with controls. Occupational workers cannot avoid radiation exposure, in spite of the control it. Actually low level radiation adverse effect occurred not dose but probability. So workers must always try to reduce exposure by ourselves, furthermore as long as possible the government should provide rapidly that national system on radiation control for worker's health.

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Characterization of an Ion Channel Prepared from Tomato Roots and Inhibitory Effects by Heavy Metal Ions (토마토 뿌리조직에서 분리한 이온채널의 중금속에 의한 저해)

  • Shin, Dae-Seop;Han, Min-Woo;Kim, Young-Kee
    • Applied Biological Chemistry
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.390-395
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    • 2004
  • In order to characterize ion channels present in tomato roots, microsomes were incorporated into an artificial lipid bilayer arranged for electrophysiological analysis. Of the five different ion channels that could be found, a channel of 450 pS conductance was found most frequently. This channel displayed subconductance states of 450, 257 and 105 pS. All subconductance states showed linear current-voltage relationships. At positive holding potentials, high frequency of transient channel openings was observed; however, at negative potentials, the open times were long and open probability high. Po was 0.83 at -40 mV. When an additional 50 mM $K^+\;or\;Na^+$ was added to the cis side of bilayer, the reversal potentials shifted in the negative direction to near -10 mV. Thus, the 450 pS cation channel selects poorly between $K^+\;and\;Na^+$. In the presence of $100\;{\mu}M$ metal ions, the channel activity was severely inhibited by $La^{3+},\;Ba^{2+},\;and\;Zn^{2+}$, and Po was decreased to 0.2 or even less. However, $Al^{3+}\;and\;Cd^{2+}$ decreased the activity by only 20%. Interestingly, each metal ion showed different kinetics of channel inhibition. While $500\;{\mu}M\;La^{3+}$ inhibited the activities of all subconductance state, 1 mM $Zn^{2+}$ inhibited all except the 105 pS state. $Cd^{2+}$ changed the gating of the channel from a long-opening state to brief transient openings even at negative holding potentials. These data represent that the metal ions may have different binding sites on the channel protein and could be useful modulators and probes to investigate structural characteristics as well as the functional roles of the 450 pS channel on the root physiology.

A Study on the Volatility of Global Stock Markets using Markov Regime Switching model (마코브국면전환모형을 이용한 글로벌 주식시장의 변동성에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.17-39
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    • 2015
  • This study examined the structural changes and volatility in the global stock markets using a Markov Regime Switching ARCH model developed by the Hamilton and Susmel (1994). Firstly, the US, Italy and Ireland showed that variance in the high volatility regime was more than five times that in the low volatility, while Korea, Russia, India, and Greece exhibited that variance in the high volatility regime was increased more than eight times that in the low. On average, a jump from regime 1 to regime 2 implied roughly three times increased in risk, while the risk during regime 3 was up to almost thirteen times than during regime 1 over the study period. And Korea, the US, India, Italy showed ARCH(1) and ARCH(2) effects, leverage and asymmetric effects. Secondly, 278 days were estimated in the persistence of low volatility regime, indicating that the mean transition probability between volatilities exhibited the highest long-term persistence in Korea. Thirdly, the coefficients appeared to be unstable structural changes and volatility for the stock markets in Chow tests during the Asian, Global and European financial crisis. In addition, 1-Step prediction error tests showed that stock markets were unstable during the Asian crisis of 1997-1998 except for Russia, and the Global crisis of 2007-2008 except for Korea and the European crisis of 2010-2011 except for Korea, the US, Russia and India. N-Step tests exhibited that most of stock markets were unstable during the Asian and Global crisis. There was little change in the Asian crisis in CUSUM tests, while stock markets were stable until the late 2000s except for some countries. Also there were stable and unstable stock markets mixed across countries in CUSUMSQ test during the crises. Fourthly, I confirmed a close relevance of the volatility between Korea and other countries in the stock markets through the likelihood ratio tests. Accordingly, I have identified the episode or events that generated the high volatility in the stock markets for the financial crisis, and for all seven stock markets the significant switch between the volatility regimes implied a considerable change in the market risk. It appeared that the high stock market volatility was related with business recession at the beginning in 1990s. By closely examining the history of political and economical events in the global countries, I found that the results of Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1990) were consistent with those of this paper, indicating there were the structural changes and volatility during the crises and specificly every high volatility regime in SWARCH-L(3,2) student t-model was accompanied by some important policy changes or financial crises in countries or other critical events in the international economy. The sophisticated nonlinear models are needed to further analysis.

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Distribution Patterns and Ecological Characters of Paulownia coreana and P. tomentosa in Busan Metropolitan City Using MaxEnt Model (MaxEnt 모형을 활용한 부산광역시 내 오동나무 및 참오동나무의 분포 경향과 생태적 특성)

  • Lee, Chang-Woo;Lee, Cheol-Ho;Choi, Byoung-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.87-97
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    • 2017
  • Paulownia species has long been recognized in Korean traditional culture and the values of the species have been researched in various focuses. However, studies on distribution and ecological characteristics of the species are still needed. This study aimed to identify distribution trends and ecological characteristics of two Paulownia species in Busan metropolitan city using the MaxEnt model. The MaxEnt model was established based on the environmental factors such as positioning information of the Paulownia species, topography, climate and degree of anthropogenic disturbance potentiality (ADP), which was collected in the on-site research. The study verified that the accuracy of the model was appropriate as the AUC value of Paulownia coreana and P. tomentosa was 0.809, respectively. In terms of the distribution trends of the two Paulownia species in the research area depending on the distribution model, they were both mainly distributed in downtown where built-up area and bare ground were densely concentrated. The potential distribution area of the two species was identified as $137.4km^2$ for P. coreana and $135.0km^2$ for P. tomentosa. The distribution probability was high in Jung-gu, Dongrae-gu, Busanjin-gu and Yeonje-gu. As a result of the analysis on contribution of the environmental factors, it was turned out that the degree of anthropogenic disturbance potentiality (ADP) contributed to distribution of P. coreana and P. tomentosa by about 50%, and the contribution of the environmental factors had a positive correlation with the degree of ADP. The elevation had a negative correlation with both the two species, which was considered because the species must compete more with native species in natural habitats as the altitude above sea level rises. The research findings demonstrated numerically that the distribution of P.coreana and P. tomentosa depended on artificial activities, and indicated the relevance with the Korean traditional landscape. These findings are expected to provide meaningful information in using, preserving and restoring Paulownia species.

Genetic Monomorphism of the Natural Ilex cornuta Community at the Northern Range Limit in Buan, Jeollanam-do in Korea Revealed by AFLP Markers (AFLP 표지자에서 나타난 전라남도 부안의 북방한계지에 자생하는 호랑가시나무 군락의 유전적 단형성)

  • Hong, Kyung Nak;Park, Yu Jin;Lee, Jei Wan;Kim, Young Mi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.104 no.2
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    • pp.187-192
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    • 2015
  • Individuals in the population under a particular environmental condition influencing recurrently for a long time could locally adapted and local adaptation is of a fundamental importance in a breeding program, conservation activities of genetic resources or evolutionary biology. Plants at northern range limits have higher probability of expressing an adaptative genetic trait. The natural community at the northern range limit of Ilex cornuta (Chinese holly) in Buan, Jeollanam-do in Korea was composed of adults of 744 and seedlings of 211 (hereafter Community) and is designated as the Korean Natural Monument (No. 122) by the law. At two adjacent areas to Community, 85 (hereafter Plantation I) and 27 hollies (hereafter Plantation II) were planted respectively for preparations of the next generation. Eighty-five trees were sampled for genetic analysis in the three groups. Fifty-two (36%) of the total 143 amplicons were polymorphic from four AFLP primer combinations. A total of thirteen genotypes was identified and just one genotype was for 52 trees of Community. Seven and five genotypes were shown for Plantation I and II, respectively. There was no identical genotype between Community and Plantation (I or II) or between two plantation groups. Number of private loci was 2 for Community, 6 for Plantation I and 4 for Plantation II. We presumed their genetic backgrounds were quite different with one another and the plantation groups were made independently because they were different not only the genetic compositions but also their ages. Considering the genetic monomorphism by AFLP markers, observations of only male trees and asexual propagation as layerage or cuttage, the hollies in Community might be a genet by root suckering from a single male tree, not the results of selective removal of female trees for ornamental use in the past.