• International Journal of Safety
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.50-56
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• 2003

There are a lot of uncertainties in the severe accident phenomena and scenarios in nuclear power plants (NPPs) and one of the major issues for severe accident management is the reduction of these uncertainties. The severe accident management aid system using Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSA) technology is developed for the management staff in order to reduce the uncertainties. The developed system includes the graphical display for plant and equipment status, previous research results by a knowledge-base technique, and the expected plant behavior using PSA. The plant model used in this paper is oriented to identify plant response and vulnerabilities via analyzing the quantified results, and to set up a framework for an accident management program based on these analysis results. Therefore the developed system may playa central role of information source for decision-making for severe accident management, and will be used as a training tool for severe accident management.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.9-25
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• 1983

A new approach to cross impact analysis using probabilistic system dynamics(PSD) is presented in this article. The previous models using PSD consist of system dynamics models as a basis which are interacting with cross impact analysis (CIA) sectors. In this model, the policy impact analysis part is separated from the CIA sectors and is constituted an independent subsectors of the model. The policy subsector is designed to separate the policy impact and provide feedback both to the system dynamics base model and cross impact analysis sectors. The new technique is applied to the forecasting, assessment and policy formulation of air pollution in Seoul metropolitan area in 2,000. The results show that the new tool consider policy effects more effectively than the previous PSD models.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.53-74
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• 2002

Composites exhibit larger dispersion in their material properties compared to conventional materials due to larger number of parameters associated with their manufacturing processes. A $C^0$ finite element method has been used for arriving at an eigenvalue problem using higher order shear deformation theory for initial buckling of laminated composite plates. The material properties have been modeled as basic random variables. A mean-centered first order perturbation technique has been used to find the probabilistic characteristics of the buckling loads with different edge conditions. Results have been compared with Monte Carlo simulation, and those available in literature.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.477-492
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• 2018

Recently, the adaptive nonlinear static analysis method has been widely used in the field of performance based earthquake engineering. However, the proposed methods are almost deterministic and cannot directly consider the seismic record uncertainties. In the current study an innovative Stochastic Adaptive Pushover Analysis, called "SAPA", based on equivalent hysteresis system responses is developed to consider the earthquake record to record uncertainties. The methodology offers a direct stochastic analysis which estimates the seismic demands of the structure in a probabilistic manner. In this procedure by using a stochastic linearization technique in each step, the equivalent hysteresis system is analyzed and the probabilistic characteristics of the result are obtained by which the lateral force pattern is extracted and the actual structure is pushed. To compare the results, three different types of analysis have been considered; conventional pushover methods, incremental dynamic analysis, IDA, and the SAPA method. The result shows an admirable accuracy in predicting the structure responses.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• v.2
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• pp.840-843
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• 2006

The aim of this study was to detect landslide using satellite image and apply the landslide to probabilistic landslide-susceptibility mapping at Gangneung area, Korea using a Geographic Information System (GIS). Landslide locations were identified by change detection technique of KOMSAT-1 (Korea Multipurpose Satellite) EOC (Electro Optical Camera) images and checked in field. For landslide-susceptibility mapping, maps of the topography, geology, soil, forest, lineaments, and land cover were constructed from the spatial data sets. Then, the sixteen factors that influence landslide occurrence were extracted from the database. Using the factors and detected landslide, the relationships were calculated using frequency ratio, one of the probabilistic model. Then, landslide-susceptibility map was drawn using the frequency ration and finally, the map was verified by comparing with existing landslide locations. As the verification result, the prediction accuracy showed 86.76%. The landslide-susceptibility map can be used to reduce hazards associated with landslides and to land cover planning.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2009.02b
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• pp.13-24
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• 2009

This paper introduces various kinds of applications of the scenario-based seismic risk assessment in Taiwan. Seismic scenario simulation (SSS) is a GIS-based technique to assess distribution of ground shaking intensity, soil liquefaction probability, building damages and associated casualties, interruption of lifeline systems, economic losses, etc. given source parameters of an earthquake. The SSS may integrate with rapid earthquake information release system to obtain valuable information and to assist in decision-making processes to dispatch rescue and medical resources efficiently. The SSS may also integrate with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to evaluate various kinds of risk estimates, such as average annual loss and probable maximum loss in one event, in a probabilistic sense and to help proposing feasible countermeasures.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1996.10a
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• pp.62-69
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• 1996

Most dynamic systems have various random properties in excitation and system parameters. In this paper, a procedure fur response analysis is proposed for the linear dynamic system with random properties in both excitation and system parameters. The system parameter and response with random properties are modeled by perturbation technique, aand then response analysis is formulated by probabilistic and vibration theories. And probabilistic FEM is also used for the calculation of mean response which is difficult by the proposed response model. As an application example, the transient response is calculated for a sdof system with random mass and spring constant subjected to stationary white-noise excitation and the results are compared to those of numerical simulation.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.574-580
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• 2005

Recently, the number of bridges and tunnels in railway is increasing due to the super high-speedy of train. Also, because of successively accidents of civil structures such as bridges and dams, the importance of maintenance become influential. The purpose of this study is to show the probabilistic life cycle cost analysis technique(PLCC) of the railroad bridge as pubic-infrastructures, and reasonably to indicate the economy in life cycle cost(LCC) through a case study. Rationally for life cycle cost analysis, the data gathered through many materials considered the uncertainty such as covariance. As a result, it is indicated that prestressed concrete bridge is pretty more cost-effective during life-cycle than preflex as well as steel box bridge. In future, if the construction of database and maintenance materials for railroad infrastructure is actualized, the life cycle cost analysis for railroad can be conducted easily and practically.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.13 no.12
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• pp.5826-5841
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• 2019

In our previous research, we proposed a tag emotion-based item recommendation scheme. The ternary associations among users, items, and tags are described as a three-order tensor in order to capture the emotions in tags. The candidates for recommendation are created based on the latent semantics derived by a high-order singular value decomposition technique (HOSVD). However, the tensor is very sparse because the number of tagged items is smaller than the amount of all items. The previous research do not consider the previous behaviors of users and items. To mitigate the problems, in this paper, the item-based collaborative filtering scheme is used to build an extended data. We also apply the probabilistic ranking algorithm considering the user and item profiles to improve the recommendation performance. The proposed method is evaluated based on Movielens dataset, and the results show that our approach improves the performance compared to other methods.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2001.07a
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• pp.530-532
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• 2001

This paper illustrates a method for evaluating nodal probabilistic production cost using the CMELDC. A new method for constructing CMELDC(the equivalent load duration curves of composite power system) was developed by authors. The CMELDC can be obtained by convolution integral processing between the probability distribution functions of the fictitious generators outage capacity and the load duration curves at each load point. Monte Carlo Methods are applied for the construction of CMELDC on this study. And IEEE-RTS 24 buses model is used as our case study with satisfactory results.