• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.441-457
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• 2018

Characteristic parameter values of seismic isolators deviate from their nominal design values due to uncertainties and/or errors in their material properties and element dimensions, etc. Deviations may increase over service life due to environmental effects and service conditions. For accurate evaluation of the seismic safety level, all such effects, which would result in deviations in the structural response, need to be taken into account. In this study, the sensitivity of the probability of failure of the structures equipped with nonlinear base isolation systems to the uncertainties in various isolation system characteristic parameters is investigated in terms of various isolation system and superstructure response parameters in the context of a realistic three-dimensional base-isolated building model via Monte Carlo Simulations. The inherent record-to-record variability nature of the earthquake ground motions is also taken into account by carrying out analyses for a large number of ground motion records which are classified as those with and without forward-directivity effects. Two levels of nominal isolation periods each with three different levels of uncertainty are considered. Comparative plots of cumulative distribution functions and related statistical evaluation presented here portray the potential extent of the deviation of the structural response parameters resulting from the uncertainties and the uncertainty levels considered, which is expected to be useful for practicing engineers in evaluating isolator test results for their projects.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.93-100
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• 2012

In this paper, the deterministic optimal design for the tail plane made of composite materials is conducted under the deterministic loading condition and compared with that of the metallic materials. Next, the reliability analysis with five random variables such as loading and material properties of unidirectional prepreg is conducted to examine the probability of failure for the deterministic optimal design results. The MATLAB programing is used for reliability analysis combined with FEA S/W(COMSOL) for structural analysis. The laminated composite is assumed to the equivalent orthotropic material using classical laminated plate theory. The response surface methodology and importance sampling technique are adopted to reduce computational cost with satisfying the accuracy in reliability analysis. As a result, structural weight of composite materials is lighter than that of metals in deterministic optimal design. However, the probability of failure for the deterministic optimal design of the tail plane structures is too high to be neglected. The sensitivity of each variable is also estimated using probabilistic sensitivity analysis to figure out which variables are sensitive to failure. The computational cost is considerably reduced when response surface methodology and importance sampling technique are used. The study of the computationally inexpensive method for reliability-based design optimization will be necessary in further work.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.437-447
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• 2010

A probabilistic analysis of slope stability is an appropriate solution in dealing with uncertainty in problems related to engineering geology. In this study, a Monte Carlo simulation was performed to evaluate the performance function that is Barton's equation. A large number of randomly generated values were obtained for random variables, and the performance function was calculated repeatedly using randomly generated values. A previous study provided information of slope geometry and the random characteristics of random variables such as JRC and JCS. The present approach was adopted to analyze two failed slopes. The probabilities of failure were evaluated for each slope, and sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the influence of each random variable on the probability of failure. The analysis results were then compared with the results of a deterministic analysis, indicating that the probabilistic analysis yielded reliable results.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.21 no.1 s.73
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• pp.28-34
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• 2006

A procedure of estimating failure probability is demonstrated for a pressurized pipe of CrMo steel used at $538^{\circ}C$. Probabilistic fracture mechanics were employed considering variations of pressure loading, material properties and geometry. Probability density functions of major material variables were determined by statistical analyses of implemented data obtained by previous experiments. Distributions of the major variables were reflected in Monte Carlo simulation and failure probability as a function of operating time was determined. The creep crack growth life assessed by conventional deterministic approach was shown to be conservative compared with those obtained by probabilistic one. Sensitivity analysis for each input variable was also conducted to understand the most influencing variables to the residual life analysis. Internal pressure, creep crack growth coefficient and creep coefficient were more sensitive to failure probability than other variables.

• Ocean Systems Engineering
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.135-155
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• 2019

One of the safest and the most economical methods to transfer oil and gas is pipeline system. Prediction and prevention of pipeline failures during its assessed lifecycle has considerable importance. The dropped object is one of the accidental scenarios in the failure of the submarine pipelines. In this paper, using Monte Carlo Sampling, the probability of damage to a submarine pipeline due to a box-shaped dropped object has been calculated in terms of dropped object impact frequency and energy transfer according to the DNV-RP-F107. Finally, Reliability sensitivity analysis considering random variables is carried out to determine the effect intensity of each parameter on damage probability. It is concluded that impact area and drag coefficient have the highest sensitivity and mass and add mass coefficient have the lowest sensitivity on probability of failure.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.22 no.10 s.175
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• pp.137-143
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• 2005

The integrity of steam generator tubes in nuclear power plant should be maintained sufficiently during operation. For sake of this, complicated assessment procedures are required such as fracture mechanics analysis, etc. The integrity assessment of tubes has been performed by using conventional deterministic approaches while there are many uncertainties to carry out a rational evaluation. In this respect, probabilistic integrity assessment is considered as an alternative method for integrity assessment. The objectives of this study are to develop an integrity assessment system based on probabilistic fracture mechanics and to predict the failure probability of steam generator tubes containing an axial through-wall crack. The developed integrity assessment system consists of three evaluation modules, which apply first order reliability method, second order reliability method and Monte Carlo simulation method, respectively. The system has been applied to predict failure probability of steam generator tubes and the estimation results showed a promising applicability of the probabilistic integrity assessment system.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.185-202
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• 2000

Uncertainty and variability in Life Cycle Assessment(LCA) have been significant key issues in LCA methodology with techniques in other research area such as social and political science. Variability is understood as stemming from inherent variations in the real world, while uncertainty comes from inaccurate measurements, lack of data, model assumptions, etc. Related articles in this issues were reviewed for classification, distinguish and elaboration of probabilistic/stochastic health risk analysis application in LCA. Concept of focal zone, streamlining technique, scenario modelling and Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube risk analysis were applied to the uncertainty/variability analysis of health risk in LCA. These results show that this general framework of multi-disciplinary methodology between probabilistic health risk assessment and LCA was of benefit to decision making process by suppling information about input/output data sensitivity, health effect priority and health risk distribution. There should be further research needs for case study using this methodology.

• Journal of the Korean Magnetics Society
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.203-207
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• 2015

This paper introduces a probabilistic analysis method in order to analyze the effect of manufacturing tolerance on induction motor performance occurring in massive production. The univariate dimension reduction method is adapted to predict probabilistic characteristics of a performance function due to certain probabilistic distributions of design variables. Moreover, the sensitivity information on mean and variance of the performance function is estimated, and then the effect of randomness of individual design variables on the probability performance function is analyzed. The effectiveness and accuracy of the method is investigated with a mathematical model and an induction motor.

• Journal of Welding and Joining
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.61-66
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• 2005

A probabilistic approach for evaluating failure risk is suggested in this paper. Probabilistic fracture analyses were performed for a pressurized pipe of a Cr-Mo steel reflecting variation of material properties at high temperature. A crack was assumed to be located along the weld fusion line. Probability density functions of major variables were determined by statistical analyses of material creep and creep crack growth data measured by the previous experimental studies by authors. Distributions of these variables were implemented in Monte Carlo simulation of this study. As a fracture parameter for characterizing growth of a fusion line crack between two materials with different creep properties, $C_t$ normalized with $C^*$ was employed. And the elapsed time was also normalized with tT, Resultingly, failure probability as a function of operating time was evaluated fur various cases. Conventional deterministic life assessment result was turned out to be conservative compared with that of probabilistic result. Sensitivity analysis for each input variable was conducted to understand the most influencing variable to the analysis results. Internal pressure, creep crack growth coefficient and creep coefficient were more sensitive to failure probability than other variables.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 1998.10b
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• pp.656-661
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• 1998

This paper presents a method of statistical analysis and sensitivity analysis of creep and shrinkage effects in PSC box girder bridges. The statistical and sensitivity analyses are performed by using the numerical simulation of Latin Hypercube sampling. For each sample, the time-dependent structural analysis is performed to produce response data, which are then statistically analyzed. The probabilistic prediction of the confidence limits on long-term effects of creep and shrinkage is then expressed. Three measures are examined to quantify the sensitivity of the outputs to each of the input variables. These are rank correlation coefficient(RCC), partial rank correlation coefficient(PRCC) and standardized rank regression coefficient(SRRC) computed on the ranks of the observations. Probability band widens with time, which indicates an increase of prediction uncertainty with time. The creep model uncertainty factor and the relative humidity appear as the most dominant factors with regard to the model output uncertainty.