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Probabilistic Stability and Sensitivity Analysis for a Failed Rock Slope using a Monte Carlo Simulation  

Park, Sung-Wook (Department of Geoinformation Engineering, Sejong University)
Park, Hyuck-Jin (Department of Geoinformation Engineering, Sejong University)
Publication Information
The Journal of Engineering Geology / v.20, no.4, 2010 , pp. 437-447 More about this Journal
Abstract
A probabilistic analysis of slope stability is an appropriate solution in dealing with uncertainty in problems related to engineering geology. In this study, a Monte Carlo simulation was performed to evaluate the performance function that is Barton's equation. A large number of randomly generated values were obtained for random variables, and the performance function was calculated repeatedly using randomly generated values. A previous study provided information of slope geometry and the random characteristics of random variables such as JRC and JCS. The present approach was adopted to analyze two failed slopes. The probabilities of failure were evaluated for each slope, and sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the influence of each random variable on the probability of failure. The analysis results were then compared with the results of a deterministic analysis, indicating that the probabilistic analysis yielded reliable results.
Keywords
slope stability; probabilistic analysis; Monte Carlo simulation;
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